TRACK HANDICAPPERS

[Jim F.]

Has anyone ever made a study (or even heard of a study) that compares the listed morning odds with the eventual "off" odds?
I think an outfit like DRF or Equibase should do a monthly report on the percentage of differential for every morning line maker at every track and find out which of these guys should seek another field of endeavor.

I make my bets in advance and I'd be interested to find out if any members out there know of tracks where the odds-makers provide real-world morning lines.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by Jim F.
Has anyone ever made a study (or even heard of a study) that compares the listed morning odds with the eventual "off" odds?

Jim, here's a three year lookie-see Paul ran a while ago.

I'm not sure if you have to be a member to access this link:

http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/000857.html

If you can't see the page, in a nutshell, the MLO are a "pretty good" predictor of the final odds in general.

[Valuist]

I do a good portion of my betting early. I would say NYRA has the most accurate morning lines I've seen. The Chicago tracks aren't good and the Ky tracks aren't much better. Mike Battaglia makes the lines for CD and AP. I can't really speak re: SoCal since I don't follow that circuit.

[andicap]

At the risk of giving away a state secret,
what does rcrtg stand for...I presume a "rc" rating.

Is this a power number of some sort proprietary for HSH? a "race rating."

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Andi, rcRtg is the ranked factor for Composite Rating, a single performance number in HSH. I couldn't tell you everything that goes into it, but it's probably the single strongest number, Impact Value wise, in the program.

MP

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

...and, just to state the obvious, even though on average the ML is a fair predictor of final odds, there are certainly swings from race to race. A really good study would probably have to incorporate some fancy statistical stuff like standard deviation.

MP

[kitts]

I have been using ML for a few years. Don't worry about how predictive they are. They do the job well enough to measure up to any betting line you create as far as I am concerned.

[Chico]

Originally posted by Jim F.
Has anyone ever made a study (or even heard of a study) that compares the listed morning odds with the eventual "off" odds?

M/L's are only of superficial value. They are one individual's opinion of what he expects the crowd will bet on each horse in a race. That M/L creator is generally not a true handicapper of horses. I am sure that his estimations have some effect on final amounts wagered, but true handicappers get the greatest gain when they exploit errors in the judgements of the crowd and/or M/L maker. That's one of the things that make this game so much fun!

Regards,
Chico