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Casino
05-19-2011, 08:45 PM
Then goes on to win the Belmont is it diminish because of the quality of this years crop?IMO a triple crown winner regardless of the competition gets my respect,does he get yours?

Grits
05-19-2011, 08:58 PM
Yes. Given it has been achieved so few times.

Smarty Cide
05-19-2011, 09:00 PM
hate to admit it but it will always be like yeah he won the triple crown but it was a terrible crop.

rastajenk
05-19-2011, 09:02 PM
Depends. If he earns Beyers close to par, he earns some respect. If he wins out with numbers in the nineties, the naysayers will deserve to be heard.

lamboguy
05-19-2011, 09:15 PM
i honestly think that ANIMAL KINGDOM will run better in the PREAKNESS than in KENTUCKY. he seems like a horse that is putting it all together right now. i highly doubt that those people are going to make any mistakes with him, so i that being said, i have no clue how he or anyone else for that matter is training for this race unlike the KENTUCKY race where i knew that a few in it were training real bad. so if DIALED IN scratches you won't get 2-1 on him and you are only guessing that he is doing good. what we do know is that MUCHO MACHO MAN is training good, that much i do know pretty much first hand. i think 2-1 is a good bet for the KINGDOM in this race.

GaryG
05-19-2011, 09:19 PM
As we have learned you can judge a crop accurately only in retrospect. This does look like a weak crop, but AK is a fine animal and would be a deserving TC winner. And no, he will not carry an *.

Bruddah
05-19-2011, 09:29 PM
Depends. If he earns Beyers close to par, he earns some respect. If he wins out with numbers in the nineties, the naysayers will deserve to be heard.

Amen Bruddah! His Derby numbers have failed to make a case for him thus far. His competition has failed to make a case for him. He's and his competition are going to need and step it up several notches.

If he does do it, it simply will have been against the worst crop of 3yo's in the last 25 years. However, after Saturday, I don't think we will be having this conversation. The point will be moot.

P.S. I have never cheered for a horse to lose, but I am with Animal Kingdom. He's not worthy. :ThmbDown:

Robert Fischer
05-19-2011, 09:29 PM
Then goes on to win the Belmont is it diminish because of the quality of this years crop?IMO a triple crown winner regardless of the competition gets my respect,does he get yours?

Maybe the story will go along those lines, but it is false. This is an "average" crop with some depth in terms of solid allowance horses.

Grits
05-19-2011, 09:38 PM
Depends. If he earns Beyers close to par, he earns some respect. If he wins out with numbers in the nineties, the naysayers will deserve to be heard.

Rasta, I don't agree with you on this one, bud. These three races--we know as the Triple Crown, have been around how many decades longer than Beyer speed figures have been printed in the DRF? And who outside of handicappers of this game know what a Beyer figure is?

If you are addressing the masses, what is the hallmark of this sport? There's only one answer . . . the Triple Crown. Breeders' Cup still runs way back.

If AK were to go on to win it, do you believe every media outlet, print, audio, or visual, every news channel, NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, CNN, etc is going to lament that his Beyer's weren't triple digit? That this was a poor crop? I don't think so, darlin'.

The naysayers, if he wins the Triple Crown, need to be grateful. Their game may gather new fans interested in wagering, therefore, enabling them to keep their churn going.

rastajenk
05-19-2011, 09:40 PM
If he is truly getting very good right now, which, after all, is what it's all about during the Triple Crown series, one would have to be pretty stubborn and/or stupid to not give him his due.

But he was in an optional claimer two back before the Derb. Is that where you want your TC drought-ender to come from? I'm as egalitarian as they come, but I think that would be cause for some serious head-scratchin' and chin-pullin'. It's very possible there's not a halfway decent stayer out there and this one can win all three with efforts that wouldn't win one in a normal year.

The best thing for forums like this would be if he wins the TC with borderline figs, and then we can argue for a good long while whether he's worthy. In the absence of any compelling rivalry, maybe we can pit him against himself. At best, though, the controversy probably wouldn't rise beyond the level of current fans out into the mainstream. The real world would dig a Triple Crown for a while and then move on.

Casino
05-19-2011, 09:41 PM
Maybe the story will go along those lines, but it is false. This is an "average" crop with some depth in terms of solid allowance horses.
Rf i agree.My question is if Ak wins how can we ever determine whether his worthy of being labeled great?Is greatness high beyer numbers while winning the tc,running fast times,competition?5 weeks 3 races,thats tough even with medicore competition,or do we look at the overall season?

cj's dad
05-19-2011, 09:54 PM
Someone posted that AK ran the last 1/2 faster that anyone since Secretariat. So, it seems to me that he is a quality animal. Hope he wins as I am commited to Belmont on the 11th.

OFFandRUNNING10
05-19-2011, 09:57 PM
Someone posted that AK ran the last 1/2 faster that anyone since Secretariat. So, it seems to me that he is a quality animal. Hope he wins as I am commited to Belmont on the 11th.

I saw someone had posted that as well but could not find what thread it was in. Did anyone confirm that at all? I am surprised it is not being talked about more if it is actually true.

Pell Mell
05-19-2011, 10:14 PM
Don't you know that the Beyers are the ONLY gauge as to how good an animal is. That's why all the Beyers guys are rich and the rest of us are paupers. :bang:

atonymania
05-19-2011, 10:25 PM
There has been no triple crown winner since 1978,if AK wins he will go down as one of the greatest,he run against the best crop available during his time and he will definitely earn my respect regardless of numbers.

rastajenk
05-19-2011, 10:28 PM
Oh, brother. I hope what was originally an interesting question doesn't devolve into a Beyer/anti-beyer thread. :rolleyes:

Producer
05-19-2011, 11:11 PM
With horses running so few races and then being retired so young, it's hard to tell how strong a crop is. Almost every year I hear how weak the crop is.

Don't forget that this crop also includes some standout sprinters/late developers such as Bind, Maclean's Music, and Travelin Man. We have also lost some of the top horses of the generation to injuries including Uncle Smoe, Arch Arch Arch, Premier Pegasus, and Jaycito. Just 2 months ago, this crop was looking like it could turn out to be one of the strongest in awhile.

PaceAdvantage
05-20-2011, 03:08 AM
Don't you know that the Beyers are the ONLY gauge as to how good an animal is. That's why all the Beyers guys are rich and the rest of us are paupers. :bang: :bang: after reading this for the 500th time.

Pell Mell
05-20-2011, 06:19 AM
:bang: after reading this for the 500th time.

Mike, sorry about that but the Beyers stuff was brought up in post #4. Just as you get sick of Beyer bashing there are others that get sick of people using Beyers as the ultimate yardstick to measure an animal.

Here's the real point: There has been enough written in the last few years about how FRAGILE our horses have become to fill a library. Here we have someone who goes out on a limb, so to speak, and buys a horse to breed to try to infuse some stamina and toughness into the breed and comes up with what so far looks to be a really good one.

This horse can probably run all day and may be really sturdy, which is what is said our horses are lacking, and right away somebody jumps up with he's not fast enough. You can't have your cake and eat it too! So I wish some would shut the hell up about how weak our horses are or how low the Beyers are. Your not going to have both, at least not for awhile. I really, really think this horse is a step in the right direction as far as our breeding industry goes.

Check the blog for more about that.:cool:

Pell Mell
05-20-2011, 06:43 AM
If he is truly getting very good right now, which, after all, is what it's all about during the Triple Crown series, one would have to be pretty stubborn and/or stupid to not give him his due.

But he was in an optional claimer two back before the Derb. Is that where you want your TC drought-ender to come from? I'm as egalitarian as they come, but I think that would be cause for some serious head-scratchin' and chin-pullin'. It's very possible there's not a halfway decent stayer out there and this one can win all three with efforts that wouldn't win one in a normal year.

The best thing for forums like this would be if he wins the TC with borderline figs, and then we can argue for a good long while whether he's worthy. In the absence of any compelling rivalry, maybe we can pit him against himself. At best, though, the controversy probably wouldn't rise beyond the level of current fans out into the mainstream. The real world would dig a Triple Crown for a while and then move on.

If memory serves me correctly there have been some pretty good ones that were entered to be claimed when they first started. I know for sure that the great filly Silver Spoon was entered to be claimed in her first race and there was a great one, it might have been Citation, that was entered to be claimed. If they didn't know what they had at first, what difference does it make if the horse was entered to be claimed? Is this another yardstick to measure a horse?
As another poster mentioned, there were some good ones this year that eventually broke down and there will be more. It is coming down to the survival of the fittest and the American thoroughbred is damn sure not the fittest. :ThmbDown:

turninforhome10
05-20-2011, 07:54 AM
I am sure we have all heard of Princequillo. Ran his first start for a tag. With his unfashionable European stayers pedigree, and run all day long aptitude. Well, I guess we know how that one ended.

Pell Mell
05-20-2011, 08:13 AM
If memory serves me correctly there have been some pretty good ones that were entered to be claimed when they first started. I know for sure that the great filly Silver Spoon was entered to be claimed in her first race and there was a great one, it might have been Citation, that was entered to be claimed. If they didn't know what they had at first, what difference does it make if the horse was entered to be claimed? Is this another yardstick to measure a horse?
As another poster mentioned, there were some good ones this year that eventually broke down and there will be more. It is coming down to the survival of the fittest and the American thoroughbred is damn sure not the fittest. :ThmbDown:

Sorry, it wasn't Citation it was Stymie and I think he was claimed for 1,500.

rastajenk
05-20-2011, 08:18 AM
Of course there have been a few racing stars with humble beginnings. If Animal Kingdom becomes one, it will be a nice storyline. I hope he has a better career than Mine that Bird and Super Saver, among others.

I do respectfully disagree with Mr. Producer's view that the list of injured 3yo's this year could have made this a decent crop. Two months ago, it still looked like an inferior bunch, with Derby candidates taking turns beating each other with lackluster performances. I would guess that's the impetus behind the question posed in the original post.

Sugar Ron
05-20-2011, 08:46 AM
Well, SS basically competed against a bunch of glorified mules back in '77 ... so I doubt AK's achievement would be diminished much due to his comp.

Of course, it's unlikely that he will prevail in the next two ... but I'll be rooting for him on Sat.

Steve R
05-20-2011, 09:51 AM
Unless he takes the final two legs in spectacular fashion and is transformed into something other than a mediocre stakes performer, the TC will be diminished by his win. The only valid comparison of his merit is to the standard of the previous TC winners, most of which were transcendent individuals. There is nothing to suggest Animal Kingdom is anything other than a decent three-year-old in a crop lacking serious classic credentials. Or has the meaning of "classic winner" changed that much over the years?

cj's dad
05-20-2011, 10:19 AM
I saw someone had posted that as well but could not find what thread it was in. Did anyone confirm that at all? I am surprised it is not being talked about more if it is actually true.


Slowest Derby Pace in 20 Years ?



Quote:

Originally Posted by depalma113

And his :47 2/5 closing half mille was the fastest in how long?



Since Secretariat.

Robert Fischer
05-20-2011, 11:13 AM
There is nothing to suggest Animal Kingdom is anything other than a decent three-year-old in a crop lacking serious classic credentials.
wrong. It is pretty easy to see that he is a legit animal.
It is hard for people to see this crop accurately, but they are pretty solid.

Or has the meaning of "classic winner" changed that much over the years?
A horse that can win at 10furlongs or greater and show some brilliance?
This is one of the most legit classic animals that we've had in the last 5 years.
At this point in the season it was clear that Barbaro, Curlin, Big Brown Rachel, and Lucky were good classic winners in the last 5. Animal Kingdom deserves to be in the conversation. The rest of the 2011 crop deserves to be in the conversation with these crops of the last 5 years.

Bruddah
05-20-2011, 11:30 AM
Unless he takes the final two legs in spectacular fashion and is transformed into something other than a mediocre stakes performer, the TC will be diminished by his win. The only valid comparison of his merit is to the standard of the previous TC winners, most of which were transcendent individuals. There is nothing to suggest Animal Kingdom is anything other than a decent three-year-old in a crop lacking serious classic credentials. Or has the meaning of "classic winner" changed that much over the years?


This gets a big Amen Bruddah and about says it all. :ThmbUp:

jognlope
05-20-2011, 11:59 AM
His acceleration at end of Derby puts him in my 10 cent superfecta that I had no chance of winning! (too many horses again).

MickJ26
05-20-2011, 12:02 PM
I'm rooting for Animal Kingdom just so we can get a big crowd for the Belmont. I think we're going to have three different winners in the TC this year.

Steve R
05-20-2011, 12:21 PM
I am sure we have all heard of Princequillo. Ran his first start for a tag. With his unfashionable European stayers pedigree, and run all day long aptitude. Well, I guess we know how that one ended.
Yes, he wound up with 12 wins in 33 starts and his best annual showing was as the 4th highest-rated 3yo of 1943 behind Count Fleet, Blue Swords and Slide Rule. In 1944 he wasn't even among the top half dozen older males, rated behind "well-remembered" runners like Alex Barth and Four Freedoms. Princequillo's legacy is as a breeding stallion, not a race horse.

Steve R
05-20-2011, 12:53 PM
wrong. It is pretty easy to see that he is a legit animal.
It is hard for people to see this crop accurately, but they are pretty solid.


A horse that can win at 10furlongs or greater and show some brilliance?
This is one of the most legit classic animals that we've had in the last 5 years.
At this point in the season it was clear that Barbaro, Curlin, Big Brown Rachel, and Lucky were good classic winners in the last 5. Animal Kingdom deserves to be in the conversation. The rest of the 2011 crop deserves to be in the conversation with these crops of the last 5 years.

Why is is hard to see this crop accurately? Of the 25 graded pre-Derby dirt routes the favorite won only five, none in a G1. In their next starts, the winners of those five races ran 5th at 3-10, 3rd at 1-2, 5th at 3-2, 7th at 8-1 beaten over 15 lengths and 7th at 4-5. This crop is among the weakest in recent memory.

The classic ideal has traditionally been a balance of speed and stamina and not, as Danny Perlsweig noted years ago, the ability to stay a classic distance if given enough time. Animal Kingdom is, so far in his career, a slow horse by classic standards and at least several lengths behind the other three-year-olds you mention. Not every Kentucky Derby winner has been a world beater for sure and Animal Kingdom has been better than a few, although when you bring the possibility of a TC winner into the mix, it's a whole different ball game. Animal Kingdom may hold his own against Derby winners such as Giacomo, Mine That Bird and Super Saver, but that's a different universe from the likes of Secretariat, Count Fleet, Citation, War Admiral, Affirmed or Seattle Slew.

Steve R
05-20-2011, 12:59 PM
Slowest Derby Pace in 20 Years ?



Quote:

Originally Posted by depalma113

And his :47 2/5 closing half mille was the fastest in how long?



Since Secretariat.

Good point. Four Derby horses ran the last half mile in :48 or less and three others were within 2 ticks of :48. I think all of them finished faster than the previous third fastest. Dialed In bested Secretariat's last half mile by 3 ticks. The finish has meaning only in relation to the early fractions. By itself the last half mile stat is useless.

tubesockshakur
05-20-2011, 02:07 PM
i want to see how fast he comes home with 47.3 / 1.11 saturday.......

Robert Fischer
05-20-2011, 02:34 PM
Why is is hard to see this crop accurately? Of the 25 graded pre-Derby dirt routes the favorite won only five, none in a G1. In their next starts, the winners of those five races ran 5th at 3-10, 3rd at 1-2, 5th at 3-2, 7th at 8-1 beaten over 15 lengths and 7th at 4-5. This crop is among the weakest in recent memory.


that's an interesting way to do it.

before the derby I had the 3 best horses, but looking back at them now - none of them have been favored in any graded routes prior to the derby.

Thats an example of how poorly the public has handicapped this crop.

after the derby we have 7 horses that obviously belong in graded 3yo races the rest of the year. 8 if Midnight Interlude runs back to his prior form. Although these types of 3yos run in graded stakes I call the(from any year) legitimate allowance horses. Because thats the "real" level I would put them against good older horses. There are 2 or 3 really good horses in this crop. We also have a unique crop, such that if the right things happen we could have an actual belmont stakes that belongs in the graded ranks, which almost never happens.

Valuist
05-20-2011, 02:59 PM
To complete the thought that "If Animal Kingdom wins........

The winners circle will be a zoo.

pondman
05-20-2011, 03:26 PM
Then goes on to win the Belmont is it diminish because of the quality of this years crop?IMO a triple crown winner regardless of the competition gets my respect,does he get yours?

Didn't like him for the derby. Don't think he'll win the preakness. Won't bet him in the Belmont.

Yeah if he wins the crown it's a poor crop.

Pell Mell
05-20-2011, 04:09 PM
This is just for those that think AK is slow. Just passing it along so take it for what it's worth.

As for the big bounce theory, Animal Kingdom made a huge jump in the Derby to run a “3-plus” on the Ragozin Sheets, faster than the vast majority of Derby winners, including Seattle Slew and Affirmed. On the Thoro-Graph figures, he went from a “3 1/2” in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) to a “zero” in the Derby. So all logic points to a regression.?????

cnollfan
05-20-2011, 04:17 PM
No asterisk for me. If Animal Kingdom wins the Triple Crown he deserves every accolade.

I think he has a legit shot, but seeing as how he hasn't even won the Preakness yet, I'm not fretting about where he might fit in the ranking of Triple Crown winners.

keithw84
05-20-2011, 09:12 PM
after the derby we have 7 horses that obviously belong in graded 3yo races the rest of the year. 8 if Midnight Interlude runs back to his prior form.
And the 7 are...?

Some are obvious, but wondering who is on your full list...

GatetoWire
05-20-2011, 09:26 PM
I think the fact that he can excell on Dirt, Synthetic and Grass makes him an even better horse. I don't buy the weak crop argument.
We all know how good you have to be to sweep all 3.
If he gets through the Preakness the racing gods will be waiting for him at Belmont.
The last 15 years have shown how hard that last Jewel really is to capture. Look how many have walked into Belmont with 2 down only to fail in the 3rd.

The racing gods will only let a true champ wear the crown.

keithw84
05-20-2011, 09:47 PM
The last 15 years have shown how hard that last Jewel really is to capture. Look how many have walked into Belmont with 2 down only to fail in the 3rd.


And look how many walked in with the media/fans pretty much assuming it was theirs - especially Smarty Jones and Big Brown.

Beachbabe
05-20-2011, 10:33 PM
To complete the thought that "If Animal Kingdom wins........

The winners circle will be a zoo.


:lol: :D

NYPlayer
05-21-2011, 12:05 AM
This is just for those that think AK is slow. Just passing it along so take it for what it's worth.

As for the big bounce theory, Animal Kingdom made a huge jump in the Derby to run a “3-plus” on the Ragozin Sheets, faster than the vast majority of Derby winners, including Seattle Slew and Affirmed. On the Thoro-Graph figures, he went from a “3 1/2” in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) to a “zero” in the Derby. So all logic points to a regression.?????

If AK loses the Preakness, those that thought he was too slow will just say that the poor performance was proof of their argument.

Let's face it, most of the triple crown winners had stellar records as two year olds and good races going into the Derby season. They we're clearly the best of their generation - not just fast in one or two races, but consistent as well. There was a certain expectation of greatness right from from the beginning.

AK seems to be lacking in that aspect.