Midnight Interlude & Mr Commons

[Leparoux]

Given how Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top ran in the KY Derby, should we toss these horses in the Preakness from the SA Derby? Is that simplifying it too much?

[tubesockshakur]

i am giving M.I. a look here plus i wouldnt just toss sway away......

[Leparoux]

i am giving M.I. a look here plus i wouldnt just toss sway away......
Sway Away was in the Arkansas Derby.

[Dahoss9698]

I haven't seen a race from Mr Commons that would make him competitve in the Preakness and think they should go back to grass after the triple crown hysteria is over.

Midnight Interlude was too bad to be true in the Derby, but just how good is he? His claim to fame is running down a distance challeged horse (barely) in the SA Derby. He needs a lot of help to be competitive IMO.

[tubesockshakur]

i cant fault your evaluation of the SA derby, i was impressed with M.I when he was knocked sideways and still dug in to get up....is he good enough to win or hit the board saturday :confused:

[Leparoux]

i cant fault your evaluation of the SA derby, i was impressed with M.I when he was knocked sideways and still dug in to get up....is he good enough to win or hit the board saturday :confused:
It's not like the evaluation of the SA Derby is a tricky one. Toss the Derby and he looks like a player, but toss the SA Derby and he looks like a toss. I think I just broke the record for amount of times using 'toss' in one sentence.

[letswastemoney]

It's not like the evaluation of the SA Derby is a tricky one. Toss the Derby and he looks like a player, but toss the SA Derby and he looks like a toss. I think I just broke the record for amount of times using 'toss' in one sentence.
I read on another forum that Midnight Interlude's maiden win might have had a higher beyer if the variant wasn't split.

[Stillriledup]

Given how Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top ran in the KY Derby, should we toss these horses in the Preakness from the SA Derby? Is that simplifying it too much?

The Ky Derby is a race where you can't hold too much against a horse. Lets say a horse finishes midpack in the Derby. That means he beat 9 or 10 horses....which is normally good enough to win a horse race in America, should we say he ran 'bad' and lost to 9 or 10 runners or should we say he ran good enough to win a normal horse race and BEAT 9 or 10 runners?

Sometimes horses just, for whatever reason, run 'non efforts' in the Derby. There's no monsters in this crop, all these horses have some shot in the Preakness. Comma was 'over' the top when he ran inthe Derby. Distance challenged or not, he figured to run up the track in Louisville and he did. His 'effort' in the KYD isnt something i would hold against Midnight Interlude going forward.

Also, Mr Commons is coming out of there, so you would be tossing him also.

[Leparoux]

The Ky Derby is a race where you can't hold too much against a horse. Lets say a horse finishes midpack in the Derby. That means he beat 9 or 10 horses....which is normally good enough to win a horse race in America, should we say he ran 'bad' and lost to 9 or 10 runners or should we say he ran good enough to win a normal horse race and BEAT 9 or 10 runners?

Sometimes horses just, for whatever reason, run 'non efforts' in the Derby. There's no monsters in this crop, all these horses have some shot in the Preakness. Comma was 'over' the top when he ran inthe Derby. Distance challenged or not, he figured to run up the track in Louisville and he did. His 'effort' in the KYD isnt something i would hold against Midnight Interlude going forward.

Also, Mr Commons is coming out of there, so you would be tossing him also.
I know Mr. Commons was in there, that is why he is in the title of this topic.

All of what your saying makes plenty of sense. On the other side of the argument is the fact that neither of them finished mid pack in the Derby. Midnight was 16th and Comma was 19th. Maybe shouldn't hold Comma to the Top Derby effort against Midnight Interlude but I will hold his own effort against him. Always tough to go against Baffert though.

[judd]

remember birdstone ?? was that his name, ran poorly then won and paid $70 to win ***

[Dahoss9698]

remember birdstone ?? was that his name, ran poorly then won and paid $70 to win ***

He won the Belmont though, so it's not really the same.

[tubesockshakur]

the belmont.....was there that day a great visit the the best city in the world.

[Leparoux]

remember birdstone ?? was that his name, ran poorly then won and paid $70 to win ***
He skipped the Preakness then beat Smarty in the Belmont if I remember right.

[Leparoux]

If someone wants to do some research.. I wouldn't mind seeing a list of Derby 'flops' coming back to win the Preakness.

[Leparoux]

Dating back to 1992, for horses that ran in the Derby (& lost obviously) and then went on to win the Preakness only Louis Quatorze in 1996 stands out. He finished 16th in the Derby. The next worst finish was 6th by Lookin at Lucky last year.

[calltopost]

Dating back to 1992, for horses that ran in the Derby (& lost obviously) and then went on to win the Preakness only Louis Quatorze in 1996 stands out. He finished 16th in the Derby. The next worst finish was 6th by Lookin at Lucky last year.

Thanks for looking that up

[cj]

Dating back to 1992, for horses that ran in the Derby (& lost obviously) and then went on to win the Preakness only Louis Quatorze in 1996 stands out. He finished 16th in the Derby. The next worst finish was 6th by Lookin at Lucky last year.

Snow Chief was before that, but he fits the bill. Probably Pine Bluff too, I think he was 5th or 6th.

[cnollfan]

Hansel in 1991.

[Leparoux]

Snow Chief was before that, but he fits the bill. Probably Pine Bluff too, I think he was 5th or 6th.

Pine Bluff was 5th in 1992

Hansel was 10th in 1991

Snow Chief was 11th in 1986

[judd]

remember birdstone ?? was that his name, ran poorly then won and paid $70 to win ***


it was bernardnini

[Leparoux]

it was bernardnini
He didn't run in the Derby.

[Valuist]

I read on another forum that Midnight Interlude's maiden win might have had a higher beyer if the variant wasn't split.

Why would the variant NOT be split? I've never heard of going from a split variant back to a single. Makes no sense.

As for the Derby off the board finishers who came back to win the Preakness, I believe Gate Dancer fits as well as Tanks Prospect also. Probably Little Current too but he was before my time.

Risen Star was much the best in the 1988 Derby and finished 3rd but when he didn't have to race 8 wide he turned the tables at Pimlico.

[Bobzilla]

Tobasco Cat comes to mind as well as he finished 6th in 94 then took the next two legs.

[Leparoux]

Running 5-8 in the Derby can be explained by a bad trip (Lookin at Lucky). Hard to make a case for Midnight Interlude finishing 16th and coming back two weeks later. If that horse beats me then I will tip my hat.

[judd]

He didn't run in the Derby.
no he was flat in the derby--then won and paid over $70 in the preekness or belmont

[OFFandRUNNING10]

no he was flat in the derby--then won and paid over $70 in the preekness or belmont

No Bernardini literally did not run in the derby. I think his last race before the Preakness might have been the Withers.

[rastajenk]

And he never paid anywhere close to $70.

And don't forget Point Given. I think he would stand out more than Louis the Q.

[Robert Fischer]

best horse last 5 KYD = animal, lucky, pioneer/summerbird, bigBrown, Curlin

[Leparoux]

No Bernardini literally did not run in the derby. I think his last race before the Preakness might have been the Withers.
:ThmbUp:

[keithw84]

best horse last 5 KYD = animal, lucky, pioneer/summerbird, bigBrown, Curlin

Summer Bird turned out to be the best colt in that crop, but I don't think he was the best Derby day. I think he was still improving, and continued to do so quite a bit over the next 5 weeks before the Belmont.

I think you could almost say the same for Curlin. If he was the "best horse" that day, I think he beats Hard Spun for the place. No way he could overcome Borel's all-timer of a rail ride on Street Sense, though.

[keithw84]

Since both horses were brought up...

Bernardini paid $27.80 in the Preakness. He ran in the Withers and didn't run in the Derby.

Birdstone paid $74.00 in the Belmont. He ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.

[judd]

Since both horses were brought up...

Bernardini paid $27.80 in the Preakness. He ran in the Withers and didn't run in the Derby.

Birdstone paid $74.00 in the Belmont. He ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
thats it--birdstone--he was bet in derby and preakness but ignored in the belmont and ---fired

[keithw84]

thats it--birdstone--he was bet in derby and preakness but ignored in the belmont and ---fired

Birdstone went off at odds of 21-1 in the Derby and finished 8th. He was not bet in the Preakness because he didn't run, and then he went off at 36-1 in the Belmont.

[pondman]

Given how Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top ran in the KY Derby, should we toss these horses in the Preakness from the SA Derby? Is that simplifying it too much?

I think they're both a waste of money on any ticket. Midnight should be a good horse latter in the year (Oaktree.)

[Valuist]

I remember watching replays of the 2007 Derby and I never did find Curlin, thanks to all the camera cuts and tents obscuring the view. I would be shocked if he was better than Street Sense on Derby day of 2007, however.

And while Lookin at Lucky turned out to be the best 3 YO of last year, was his Derby any better than Ice Box? I guess its irrelevant as it was a bad crop running over a sea of slop.

[Golf man]

yeah Little Current won the Preakness, but it was after just a horrible trip in the Derby. He might have been good enough to have been a Triple Crown winner. I read the chart the day after the Derby and Little Current became a big horse for my Preakness day. 13/1 was not too bad.

[JustRalph]

yeah Little Current won the Preakness, but it was after just a horrible trip in the Derby. He might have been good enough to have been a Triple Crown winner. I read the chart the day after the Derby and Little Current became a big horse for my Preakness day. 13/1 was not too bad.

John Galbreath was not happy about that Derby. And neither was my Dad who bet Little Current in the Derby. John Galbreath was a well known "good guy" around where I grew up. I remember my father talking with his buddies about how Little Current would easily win the Preakness and Dear old Dad made a few bucks on that one. All the guys at the Barber Shop made money on that Preakness from what I remember. A 23 Horse field in that Derby.........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Current_(horse)

[Robert Fischer]

I remember watching replays of the 2007 Derby and I never did find Curlin, thanks to all the camera cuts and tents obscuring the view. I would be shocked if he was better than Street Sense on Derby day of 2007, however.

And while Lookin at Lucky turned out to be the best 3 YO of last year, was his Derby any better than Ice Box? I guess its irrelevant as it was a bad crop running over a sea of slop.

(although i may type like a know-it-all it's always just opinions)
yea about 90% sure Curlin was best that day.
and also yea Luckys 6th was much much better than Ice Box's 2nd. Ice Box had a dream trip and did a lot of things wrong and would be a huge bet-against whenever he was to race next. Lucky was best and Noble Promise was 2nd. not sure after that.