Bill Bentnor Hong Cong

[JimL]

I might have his name spelled wrong however he is the player in Hong Cong, that makes millions wagering on horses. It is my understanding that he knows very little about the fundamentals of handicapping and could care less. Besides having a huge bankroll how on earth can he be so succesful? Anyone know how he operates? JimL

[Suff]

I think he buys selections.

[Dave Schwartz]

Not so much anymore.

Here is a related link.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.03/betting_pr.html

[JimL]

Dave, thank you for the link. I think I will just continue with my ten dollar win bets!

[Suff]

I was tongue in cheek....

In the insurance business they call these guys "actuarys".

They calculate to a science the Probabilties of many potential outcomes and they place a value on each probabilty.. they then determine the probabilties that are most rewarding based on the probable outcome...and they cover as many of the value probabilties as possible.

Like the small bettor there are various methods.. But I think most are not Horse players in the sense you and I think of a horse player. They're hedge fund managers using the Parimutual pools as thier playing field.

Pools in Asia make Belmont and Santa Anita Look like Penn National. $100 - 200 Million Dollar handles are norm. Its the same game...just with more zero's. But it does allow for RICHER players..as a .15 ROI on 25 mil is pretty handsome money.

Like most of these Kind of players... These bettors.. do not know the name, sex, pedigree, silk colors..of what they bet Matter if fact, probably knows next to nothing about the race.. all that work is done by the Super Computer. They only review the Probabilities and the Value of each one. What and how much to bet is also determined by the computer.

You most assuredley cannot call them Horse Players... because these guys aint playin. They're very serious.

[Kentucky Bred]

Fun article to read. I noticed a couple of things from it. First, you can bet (pardon the pun) that he and the other computer teams go after price in their selections. He emphasized the need for "value" in the plays. That means price.

Also, it looks like he has a team of researchers and workers. Looking over every race and imputing into a computer custom data is expensive. He needs to win. I believe that it is his private data that gives him the edge. He can spend a lot more time and money finding the edge. That is true value.

Kentucky Bred

[Whirlaway]

His biggest asset is the ability to tap into the "blind" pools, particularly the trifecta, and use computers to scan for inefficiencies. I believe the Dakota Racing Services "Whale" was doing something similar in this country a few years ago and a big stink was made over it.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by JimL
Anyone know how he operates?

Jim, here's another link:

http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/technology/2000/1103/tech.computing.html

[BillW]

Originally posted by JimL
Anyone know how he operates?

JimL,

FYI, Benter's paper "Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report" is published as an appendix in Nick Mordin's book "Winning Without Thinking".

Bill

[JimL]

I want to thank everyone for thier replys and the links. I work really hard at this game and I love it. Sometimes I even make a profit. Why do these guys remind me of Enron? JimL

[PaceAdvantage]

These guys, to me, don't sound like Enron...they sound like my heros!!!

There are many ways to skin the parimutuel cat....I prefer the "math-computer" way. Suff, while I think he uses a computer to assist him in his handicapping, is much more of a "feel" guy than I will ever be....but that doesn't mean I love the sport or the horses any less than him....

[Suff]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
These guys, to me, don't sound like Enron...they sound like my heros!!!

There are many ways to skin the parimutuel cat....I prefer the "math-computer" way. Suff, while I think he uses a computer to assist him in his handicapping, is much more of a "feel" guy than I will ever be....but that doesn't mean I love the sport or the horses any less than him....

off course not buddy. Did you get impression I meant that... ? Sorry.... I know you Love this thing.. I sat beside you..and saw you nibbling on your fingertips... wipping your brow..and on and off with that Yankee hat as you poured over the PP's.

I know you love this game.. as Much as anyone.

Its just that Hat.. that Darn hat.

[Topcat]

I love the ttitle of Mordin's book.
So where can I buy Mordin's book? Is it avaialbe in the U.S?

[BillW]

Originally posted by Topcat
I love the ttitle of Mordin's book.
So where can I buy Mordin's book? Is it avaialbe in the U.S?

I got it used via Amazon (I think around $15.00 or so). It's on systems/angles. The "without thinking" part is after a lot of thinking to come up with the system in the firat place ala Benter. Haven't finished it yet, but the guy doesn't seem to be a quack. He is British though, therefore the book is based a lot on Eu racing (bookies, etc.).

It's currently out of print.

Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

You do recall meeting Nick Mordin at Saratoga, don't you? He was in our group for at least one day.

Dave

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bill,

You do recall meeting Nick Mordin at Saratoga, don't you? He was in our group for at least one day.

Dave
Dave,

Yep, but didn't get to talk to him much. That was the one of the reasons that I bought the book though, that and the writings of Benter, Bolton and Chapman.

Bill

[Dave Schwartz]

Bill,

You would recommend the book?


Dave

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bill,

You would recommend the book?


Dave
Dave,

Haven't got there yet. Going to try and get through it in the next week. I'll report back.

Bill

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by JimL
I might have his name spelled wrong however he is the player in Hong Cong, that makes millions wagering on horses. It is my understanding that he knows very little about the fundamentals of handicapping and could care less. Besides having a huge bankroll how on earth can he be so succesful? Anyone know how he operates? JimL

I love one of his postions about handicapping. Basically, that
is...Given a large database, just follow the numbers and that will find the winners..

I've been doing just that for years..So far I think I can say with some degree of confidence...I can cut my losses down to about 4 or 6% .

Joe M

[Suff]

I admire a Man whose not afraid of Pain.

[formula_2002]

SUFF, Knowledge like that is saving me a fortune!!!!:cool:

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

I read "Winning without Thinking". I liked Mordin's approach to building systems; the parts of the book where he explains the though processes were quite good I thought. He's very much the contrarian. In between that is a lot of examples that won't apply on this side of the pond. He's a bit of a storyteller, which adds to the bulk of the book.

Lot of good stuff in the appendices, including Kelly's original 1956 paper, Bolton & Chapman's paper which was the foundation for Bentner's work, Bentner's paper, and a paper by MacLean and Ziemba. But bring your math mojo.....most of the stuff in those papers I forgot the day after I escaped my Differential Equations class with a B some 20 years ago.

MP

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Not so much anymore.

Here is a related link.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.03/betting_pr.html

Stuff like this article needs to be balance with reality!!!

Terrible...

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by MarylandPaul@HSH
I read "Winning without Thinking"... He's a bit of a storyteller, which adds to the bulk of the book.

It's a fun read.

For example, he talks about a car he owned in an analogy about the physics of weight and performance. Six pages of text preceed this passage, and he writes more after it too, but this gives you the flavour of his writing style.

"To undersdand why (or at least my theory of why), I would invite you to picture the remarkably slow car I used to own. It was a Nissan and could only reach a top speed of 70 miles an hour when fully laden. Please don't think I am denigrating Nissan motor cars here. I know they make some very good ones. It's just that mine wasn't one of their more powerful models. In fact, the engine that drove it was a mere 1.1 litres in size. Now, for the sake of my hypothetical experiment, let's say I asked three friends along and drove my Nissan with my foot flat to the boards for an hour on a road with no traffic lights, speed restrictions or traffic police. After the hour is up, I would have covered precisely 70 miles. Now let's say I and my friends got out of the car, stripped it down to its chassis and installed some sort of remote control device for the return journey. By doing this, let's assume we would have reduced the weight of the car from a fully laden 1,600 lbs to a totally stripped down 400 lbs.

"Now, according to the equation given to me by the professor, an equal force should drive a mass that's four times as small four times as fast. Therefore, if my car made the outward journey at a speed of 70 miles an hour, it should be able to make the return journey at 280 miles an hour. But, I hear you say, there is absolutely no way a 1.1 litre Nissan could possibley go 280 miles an hour, however much you stripped it down. My point exactly! Clearly there is a limit to the top speed a 1.1 litre combustion engine can drive a car, however light the car may be. My guess would be that the limit is around 100 miles an hour. For the sake of arguement, let's accept that figure.

"Now, if 100 miles an hour really is as fast as my Nissan can go, then we almost certainly don't need to strip it right down. Once it has shed enough weight to reach 100 miles and hour, there is no point in taking off any more. Even if we ripped out all the seats and tore it right down to its bare chassis, it would still only go 100 miles an hour. The point where the amount of weight my car shed enabled it to reach 100 miles an hour would be a hysterisis. Any amount of weight added or lost below that point would have no impact on the car's speed. Only when the weight added went over the point of the hysterisis would the car start to slow down. I guess I'm labouring the point here, but racehorses too may well have an amount of weight they can carry, which does not materially affect their speed. This is the only logical way I can think of to explain the findings of Alexander and Beyer."

Incidentally, Nick's first book, Betting For A Living, has been England's all time best selling book on thoroughbred horse betting. That book to him is what Beyer on Speed is to Andy Beyer.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Bill,

You would recommend the book?


Dave

I've made it about 1/3 of the way though Mordin's book and so far I'm impressed. He's obviously a polished writer as he has a flowing and readable style, but may be a bit wordy for some (though probably not you, Dave :D). His style does take the edge off of the wordiness. He steps through his thought processes in deriving his "systems" in a clear and complete manner.

Since I've been focusing on contrarian techniques in handicapping for the past few months, this book plays right into my current interests.

Unfortunately I didn't fully appreciate who I was meeting when we were introduced at Saratoga, or I would have had a few more questions :).

A Caveat: some translation is needed from the British way to the American way (See another thread on "place" bets in S. Africa)

I have nothing else to really add to the reviews that have already been published in this forum. (Check the search function)

Bill