Preakness Betting Stratagy

[Smarty Cide]

So whats everyones betting stratagy for the Preakness? Im at a loss on this one, cant think of the best way to bet it. let alone which horses to use

[calltopost]

My best guess so far:

I am going to bet the Superfecta with 5 other guys.

Put three horses in the win-spot, move them to the place-spot and add two more, then move those five into the show-spot and add two more. Then move those same seven into the four-spot.

Should cost $240 - $60 each for the 6 of us.

Right now in the Super:

AK, MMM, Astrology
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away + 1 other
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others

If they run Nehro it will be a different story.

I'm also going to put down a big WPS on one that I like a lot.

[Dahoss9698]

Isn't it sort of tough to narrow down betting strategies before the field has been drawn?

[KingChas]

So whats everyones betting stratagy for the Preakness?

One thing I have learned over the years at the Preakness,don't leave the hometown horse out of your exotics,no matter the price.

This year it could be.Smarty Jones's boy.
Concealed Identity.....Eddie Gaudet....Sheldon Russell....1st, Tesio 30-1

If he goes.

[PhantomOnTour]

When is the pp draw? I see they already have Friday's card drawn.

[garyscpa]

My best guess so far:

I am going to bet the Superfecta with 5 other guys.

Put three horses in the win-spot, move them to the place-spot and add two more, then move those five into the show-spot and add two more. Then move those same seven into the four-spot.

Should cost $240 - $60 each for the 6 of us.

Right now in the Super:

AK, MMM, Astrology
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away + 1 other
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others

If they run Nehro it will be a different story.

I'm also going to put down a big WPS on one that I like a lot.

As long as you are the guying taking in the money, you should come out ok on this deal. :ThmbUp:

[Spiderman]

When is the pp draw? I see they already have Friday's card drawn.
Draw is Wednesday afternoon.

[calltopost]

As long as you are the guying taking in the money, you should come out ok on this deal. :ThmbUp:
$40 a head! ;) Can you not go back and edit?

When is the pp draw? I see they already have Friday's card drawn.
Is there a link to it someplace?

[calltopost]

Is there a link to it someplace?

Sorry, found it. Friday's card:

http://magna.equibase.com/eqbRaceEntriesDisplay.cfm?TRK=PIM&CY=USA&DATE=05/20/2011&STYLE=PIM

[PhantomOnTour]

My strategy is to avoid this syndrome I seem to fall prey to on Derby weekend, Preakness weekend, and Breeders Cup weekend.

I always have a great Friday and a bad Saturday. Maybe the Fri card is always up early and I put more time into it. After a strenuous betting day maybe I haven't the energy to really get down n dirty on the Sat card. Maybe I get a lil loose with the expanded bankroll from Fri and get sloppy on Sat, playing wild bombs looking for a big score to make it a really great wknd.
Who knows?

If not for a certain 'money in the bank' trainer angle I would have been shamed the last 2yrs on Preakness day.

[keithw84]

If not for a certain 'money in the bank' trainer angle I would have been shamed the last 2yrs on Preakness day.

What do you mean?

[Spiderman]

I always have a great Friday and a bad Saturday.


Take Friday off.

[Pell Mell]

I don't know exactly what I will do but I know what I won't do! I won't go against AK for a couple of reasons.

One is that I bet him in the derby and only thought 2 horses had a shot of beating him and they ain't in here. Another point is that he either beat every horse in here or beat the horses that have beaten the ones he hasn't.

If I think I can find some value in the exotics with AK on top I'll take a shot otherwise I will sit back and enjoy the race.

PS..always a lot of talk about vulnerable favorites, do you think he is vulnerable?

[GatetoWire]

I don't know exactly what I will do but I know what I won't do! I won't go against AK for a couple of reasons.

One is that I bet him in the derby and only thought 2 horses had a shot of beating him and they ain't in here. Another point is that he either beat every horse in here or beat the horses that have beaten the ones he hasn't.

If I think I can find some value in the exotics with AK on top I'll take a shot otherwise I will sit back and enjoy the race.

PS..always a lot of talk about vulnerable favorites, do you think he is vulnerable?

I think that AK coming back in two weeks off his biggest figure ever could be vulnerable. The additions of Dance City, Sway Away and Astrology make the field pretty deep but they could also result in a better pace for AK to run at.
Either way he will probably be an underlay in the betting.

[Pell Mell]

I think that AK coming back in two weeks off his biggest figure ever could be vulnerable. The additions of Dance City, Sway Away and Astrology make the field pretty deep but they could also result in a better pace for AK to run at.
Either way he will probably be an underlay in the betting.

Why do you mention 2 weeks? I do believe there have been quite a few that have won the derby and the preakness. I put no stock in figures. His last race looked a lot easier to me than his prior. It seems to me that there's a few in this race that made a huge jump in figures when going from synthetic or turf to dirt.

Not only has he beaten a lot of these, he is the only horse that has done everything right. Running at 5 different tracks, with 5 different jocks, on at least 3 different surfaces. Plenty of room for an excuse if you ask me but there are lots of others that have had one excuse or another as to why they can't win.

He may lose but I ain't putting my money up to see if any of these second raters can beat him. That would be plain stupid.;)

[InTheRiver68]

My best guess so far:

I am going to bet the Superfecta with 5 other guys.

Put three horses in the win-spot, move them to the place-spot and add two more, then move those five into the show-spot and add two more. Then move those same seven into the four-spot.

Should cost $240 - $60 each for the 6 of us.

Right now in the Super:

AK, MMM, Astrology
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away + 1 other
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others
AK, MMM, Astrology, Sway Away, Norman Abs + 2 others

If they run Nehro it will be a different story.

I'm also going to put down a big WPS on one that I like a lot.

Pimlico will have 10c supers. Remember to bet 10 $24 tickets!

- InTheRiver68

[GatetoWire]

Why do you mention 2 weeks? I do believe there have been quite a few that have won the derby and the preakness. I put no stock in figures. His last race looked a lot easier to me than his prior. It seems to me that there's a few in this race that made a huge jump in figures when going from synthetic or turf to dirt.

Not only has he beaten a lot of these, he is the only horse that has done everything right. Running at 5 different tracks, with 5 different jocks, on at least 3 different surfaces. Plenty of room for an excuse if you ask me but there are lots of others that have had one excuse or another as to why they can't win.

He may lose but I ain't putting my money up to see if any of these second raters can beat him. That would be plain stupid.;)

You asked if he was vulnerable.

I mention two weeks because horses are unpredictable especially ones trained by people who tend to only race their horses when the schedule fits.

Motion like Pletcher tends to give his horses extra time in between starts. The Preakness does not allow this.

For every Funny Cide who romped in the Preakness there is a Super Saver who could not handle the quick turn around.

Check the chart from last year. He was bet off the board at $1.90 to the $1.

AK's races have all been spread out. Maybe he will be run back to his Derby and kill this field. Maybe he will bounce like a basketball and get drilled by horses that are primed for their best efforts in this race.

Who know what will happen. Are you willing to take 2-1 or lower on the chance that he does not take to the quick turnaround? Might be better value to take the 77% chance that one of the others beat him.

[KingChas]

When is the pp draw? I see they already have Friday's card drawn.

Post positions for this year's running of the Preakness Stakes will be announced on Wednesday, May 18 at 5PM ET, airing on Horse Racing Television (HRTV) and at ESPN360.com.

[PhantomOnTour]

What do you mean?
I mean that there's a certain trainer who has sent over some live horses at nice prices that have scored on the Preakness Saturday undercard the last few years, and if not for those cashes it woulda been ugly.

[calltopost]

Pimlico will have 10c supers. Remember to bet 10 $24 tickets!

- InTheRiver68

Why do you say that instead of just betting a one-dollar super?

Also - are you sure they will have a 10-cent during the Preakness?

[Leparoux]

Why do you say that instead of just betting a one-dollar super?

Also - are you sure they will have a 10-cent during the Preakness?
That is my question also. Hoping for some 10-cent supers, although they do hold up the lines.

[BlueShoe]

Why do you say that instead of just betting a one-dollar super?
TAXES!

[calltopost]

TAXES!

I have no idea how taxes on bets work.

[BlueShoe]

I have no idea how taxes on bets work.
Lets say you and your partners hit the super and it pays $1000 for a $1 bet. If you bet one dollar a ticket you will have to pay taxes. Bet ten cent tickets and just keep hitting the repeat key on the Sam as many times as you wish; then your payoff is $100 a ticket, no taxes. The key threshold is a 600-1 return for a wager of $1 and up. By wagering in the smallest unit allowed the chance of tax liability is decreased. You could have a single dime ticket on a super that pays just under $6000 per one dollar wager, and you would walk away with almost six hundred bucks with no taxes. Of course if you have multiple dime tickets it gets sweeter---.

[calltopost]

How do they know about it (at the track) in order to get me to pay the taxes?

How about my online wagering account (EZ Horseplay) - do they know & send me forms, or do I have to remember all this shit during tax season next year?

[PhantomOnTour]

How do they know about it (at the track) in order to get me to pay the taxes?

How about my online wagering account (EZ Horseplay) - do they know & send me forms, or do I have to remember all this shit during tax season next year?
They know about it when you go cash the ticket. The teller's machine will instruct them. If you have a signer they will do your tax forms right there on the spot and give you receipts etc....If you hit big enough they will actually tax your winnings on the spot. In other words, if you hit a P6 for $35,000 they aren't handing you a check (or cash) for 35k.
If online, your ADW will do the same thing basically with tax forms etc...

[calltopost]

Thank you Phantom! I would invite that scenario.

[Smarty Cide]

They know about it when you go cash the ticket. The teller's machine will instruct them. If you have a signer they will do your tax forms right there on the spot and give you receipts etc....If you hit big enough they will actually tax your winnings on the spot. In other words, if you hit a P6 for $35,000 they aren't handing you a check (or cash) for 35k.
If online, your ADW will do the same thing basically with tax forms etc...


if they tax your winnings why cant you right off your losses?

[Dahoss9698]

How do they know about it (at the track) in order to get me to pay the taxes?

How about my online wagering account (EZ Horseplay) - do they know & send me forms, or do I have to remember all this shit during tax season next year?

When you hit the triple in the Derby, didn't you get tax forms on track or in the mail if you played from an ADW?

[calltopost]

When you hit the triple in the Derby, didn't you get tax forms on track or in the mail if you played from an ADW?

I played using my online account. I don't know how they do taxes. I'm sure they won't forget me though.

[boogsley]

EZHorseplay (and most, if not all ADWs) forwards your information to the IRS (I'm pretty sure only if you've had at least 1 600-1 pay off). Not positive, but I think they send them the entire account info, in terms of whether you have a net profit or not. Go to full history, click account wagering info - that gives you pretty much all the info that IRS wants.

One reason I don't play ADW very often (and don't use promotions like rewards cards and whatnot). Playing with cash means nothing gets reported to the IRS unless you have a single ticket that pays over $599 and is a pay off of over 599-1. I haven't had a signer in a while - multiple 50-cent trifectas and 10 cent supers kept me from flagging pay outs.

If you *do* hit a signer with cash, you can deduct your losses from your winnings (although you have to itemize your taxes). Also, in the event of an audit, you're expected to have all of the losing tickets that you claim. So if you're betting cash, every now and then you should keep your losers so when/if you hit a signer, you don't have to worry about the IRS bogeyman. Grabbing a bunch all in one day is possible, but not suggested - have heard of more an audit that was doubly scrutinized because the guy just had all these losers from one day. Suspicious to IRS - you're supposed to show a pattern.

Or you can just get a 10%er to sign em for you - less paperwork, although I've never been a fan of giving away any profits just because it's *easier* :D

[Pell Mell]

Just watched Animal gallop. He looks like a million bucks. I've just about settled on my bet for the Preakness. I really can't go against a horse that's done everything right so far but I think I can get some real good value under him because I like several long ones.

[takeout]

Of course if you have multiple dime tickets it gets sweeter---.And if you’re at the track, cash every one of them at a different window. I’ve read that they will lump them all together and still tax you anyway if you don’t.

Maryland racing:
A 21% takeout on exactas & doubles (!) (that’s bullring crap)
And, if you manage to hit anything really decent (over 5K) the state withholds 8.5% on top of the federal.

I wonder why they don't advertise all of this 'good' stuff? :rolleyes: :lol:

[Producer]

And if you’re at the track, cash every one of them at a different window. I’ve read that they will lump them all together and still tax you anyway if you don’t.

Maryland racing:
A 21% takeout on exactas & doubles (!) (that’s bullring crap)
And, if you manage to hit anything really decent (over 5K) the state withholds 8.5% on top of the federal.

I wonder why they don't advertise all of this 'good' stuff? :rolleyes: :lol:


While they CAN lump multiple .10 tickets together and tax you, I have never ever heard of or seen this actually happen at the racetrack. On an ADW its a different story. I've had multiple .10 supers in a race on many different occasions that equaled well over the witholding limit and have not once had an issue cashing them all at once without being taxed.

As for the state tax, that only applies if you are in the state of Maryland, I believe.

[calltopost]

Thanks for all the tax info. This truly is a kickass forum.

Just watched Animal gallop. He looks like a million bucks. I've just about settled on my bet for the Preakness. I really can't go against a horse that's done everything right so far but I think I can get some real good value under him because I like several long ones.

Hey Pell Mell! Who else do you like besides AK??

[PaceAdvantage]

Not positive, but I think they send them the entire account info, in terms of whether you have a net profit or not. Go to full history, click account wagering info - that gives you pretty much all the info that IRS wants.No, they don't send the entire account info. Where did you ever come up with that one?

[rastajenk]

The lumping of individual tickets by a machine into taxable amounts sounds pretty out there, too. When I was a mutuel clerk, nobody ever showed me a code to group tickets to create one biggie.

[Fredo515]

you can write off your losses on an ADW, all you have to do is print out your bets at the end of the year.

[Pell Mell]

Thanks for all the tax info. This truly is a kickass forum.



Hey Pell Mell! Who else do you like besides AK??

Check my blog tomorrow.

[uncbossfan]

I expect a very quick pace. King Congie gets the lead turning for home, tackled mid strecth by AK. Congie drifts out again and he and AK bump into a late closing Dialed In. Blanket finish with stewards inquiry.

AK wins
Congie DQ'd from 2nd to 3rd
Dialed In moved up from 3rd to 2nd


I'll be playing those 3 over same 3 plus MMM and Midnight

[Producer]

I think Dance City is gonna run a BIG race on Saturday. The horse ran huge to finish 3rd in the Arkansas Derby. He has improved every race so far and comes in fresh and training well. He is also very game and fights back when headed. You have to figure he has improved even more since the Ark Derby.

If Ramon can get him to relax even just a bit early, he is the main threat to beat Animal Kingdom, imo. At 9-1 or above, he is a must bet to me. If I can get the ML of 12-1, I would be thrilled.

I will also be betting tri's with AK, MMM, and Dance City in the 1st two slots and then them 3 plus Sway Away, Astrology, and probably 2-3 more depending on how the track is playing in the 3rd slot.

Supers I will bet similar to the tri's, adding a few more in the 4th slot.

[takeout]

As for the state tax, that only applies if you are in the state of Maryland, I believe.Someone posted it on another thread here just recently. The state withholding is 8.5% for Maryland residents and 6.75% for nonresidents.

[pondman]

I think Flashpoint will be sent, get loose on the lead, and put a big number on the board. Expecting Shackleford to hang on this time for some money. Mucho will be there.

Shackleford
Flashpoint
Mucho Macho Man

I'm throwing out animal.

[Investorater]

Without knowing how the Pimlico track is flowing today,,,,,since biases can subtly change from backstretch to homestretch - etc. (And not seeing the horses live -- in person for a visual inspection). My selections for a Superfecta are as follows ;

<#5> <#9>

<#5> <#8> <#9>

<#5> <#7> <#8> <#9>

<#2> <#5> <#6> <#7> <#8> <#9> <#11> = $32.00

Best of Luck to One and All .. \O/

[Lon Chaney]

I loved AK in the Derby and he brought me home a nice chunk of change, but I need to find value elsewhere. So.....


I'm taking the local boy Concealed Identity. He has 2 straight wins on this track and he is a physically impressive horse. The 13 post hurts him a bit, but if he can stalk the middle of the pack, he might be able to pull this one off. He hasn't raced any great horses yet, but his price is going to be big enough to take a gamble.

$10 WPS :13:

$2 Exacta Box :1: :4: :9: :10: :11: :13:

and my customary $2 EB :2: :4:

My wife likes MMM so $5 Win :9:

Total Bets: $99

Good Luck

Lon

[DRIVEWAY]

Here is a list of Preakness winners by post position since 1908, with the year of the last winner in parentheses:

Post 1 – 9 winners (1994)
Post 2 – 11 winners (1986)
Post 3 – 11 winners (1993)
Post 4 – 13 winners (2007)
Post 5 – 10 winners (1976)
Post 6 – 15 winners (2004)
Post 7 – 13 winners (2010)
Post 8 – 10 winners (2006)
Post 9 – 3 winners (2003)
Post 10 – 2 winners (1998)
Post 11 – 2 winners (2001)
Post 12 – 3 winners (2005)
Post 13 – 1 winners (2009)
Post 14 – 0 winners

If you throw out Posts 9 thru 14 because of poor results and eliminate all Posts that are NW's for 10 years, you wind up with 4,6,7 and 8. Also, the max payout for the winner is $23. So favor horses < 11-1.

:4: speed horse on speed favoring track
:6: keyrace
:7: Bob Baffert
:8: keyrace

Stranger handicapping methods have been used. Now we all know that the :14: is due and at 50-1 odds.:D

My picks :8: :14:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Some mystery horses in here (Flashpoint?, Dialed In healthy?), Midnight Interlude?. I'm keying the grinder, Astrology. If he's half as good as I think he is (and he looked good in the post parade), this will be his last race in double digits. The only one I'm afraid of is AK.

Key :1:

Exacta Saver with :11:

Longshots :2: :12:

Throw a dart for the rest of the gimmicks....