Bris pace ratings

[mikesal57]

Hi all..

does anyone utilize Bris pace ratings (E1-E2-LP) ?
spot play or in program

thxs
mike

[Otis11]

I do look at the E1 and E2 as a barometer of early speed.
:11:

[mikesal57]

I do look at the E1 and E2 as a barometer of early speed.
:11:

thxs otis...I do too....a better barometer is using avg e1 for getting the best early in race...

I was hoping that someone uses it better than I do... :)

[Tom]

When I used BRIS more often, I added TT to E2 to get an early composite rating -

ie, E1, E2, LP 87 92 98 (92-87=5) so 5+92 = 97 for the early. This was Sartin's contender factor in one of his early dos programs - Factor S in Contender Scan.

For late, I added TT to LP, here it would be 5+98 = 103. This horse would be a 97-103. To make it a total pace type rating, add the SR to that 103. Doing this in the Derby made the winner look pretty good at the odds. As seen after the race was over. :rolleyes:

Randy Guiles had a neat way of doing things - using the last three races and the best E2 and Best Lp for each horse, then using his Optimum Pace Model to evaluate the results.

[mikesal57]

thxs Tom....

What a can of worms i can open up here...being E2 as the early call when its 2/3's of the race in a 6 fur dist..anyway

lets reverse your numbers and say horse B is 92-87-98

so you would have 87-92= -5 ...... -5+92=87 as the early figure


so horse A's 97 would be tons better than horse B 87 that has a 2-3 lt lead after the 1st call....hmmmm

I was hoping for a more unconventional way of using it...

thxs
mike

[Robert Goren]

I look at them(E1). There are probably better numbers out there but I use what is free. Sometjmes you can find a horse moving up in class with a 5 pt advantage that is going off with good odds. You can find short priced favorites front runner who hasn't shown the rating needed to the lead and toss him. Probably useful in about one race a day.

[mikesal57]

I look at them(E1). There are probably better numbers out there but I use what is free. Sometjmes you can find a horse moving up in class with a 5 pt advantage that is going off with good odds. You can find short priced favorites front runner who hasn't shown the rating needed to the lead and toss him. Probably useful in about one race a day.

Thxs RG...


Your right..FREE...is better and adds to the bottom line...the less we spend the better...correct?

"useful in about one race a day"
I work 5 days/40 hours a week..and make $500( pls dont laugh :D )
So if I can get that "one" race and bet 20 bucks and cash a $18 horse.....

wouldnt you?

mike

my bottom line is to quit working!!

[michiken]

Tom.

I wonder who taught you those bris fig tweaks?

:ThmbUp:

[mikesal57]

Tom.

I wonder who taught you those bris fig tweaks?

:ThmbUp:


thxs for chiming in....

would you want to comment on how you use them?

thxs
mike

[Tom]

Tom.

I wonder who taught you those bris fig tweaks?

:ThmbUp:

Some guy who used to post here I think......Chicago-Chuck, or something like that! ;):D

A search of your posts on the subject would be well worth the time spent....

[cnollfan]

I use the Bris pace figs but I throw out most horses' highest score to avoid some of the wacky numbers.

[riskman]

thxs Tom....

What a can of worms i can open up here...being E2 as the early call when its 2/3's of the race in a 6 fur dist..anyway

lets reverse your numbers and say horse B is 92-87-98

so you would have 87-92= -5 ...... -5+92=87 as the early figure


so horse A's 97 would be tons better than horse B 87 that has a 2-3 lt lead after the 1st call....hmmmm

I was hoping for a more unconventional way of using it...

thxs
mike


Have you read this?
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=pace

Also suggest that you read the articles on Pace Handicapping here:
http://www.brisnet.com/library/major_topic_index.pdf

Nothing is easy. The information is in the library.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=library

[raybo]

Quoted from Brisnet:

"Unlike the BRIS Speed Ratings which employ a differing points-per-length scale depending on the race distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings use a fixed scale of 2-points-per-length for all pace calls (2f,4f, etc.) - regardless of the race distance. The fixed 2-points-per-length scale is based on the fact that, regardless of the entire race's distance, the ground covered for any given pace call (2f,4f,etc.) is the same - that is, a 1/4 mile call is equal to two furlongs regardless of whether the entire race is six furlongs or ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles). Since the pace calls being measured are equivalent across differing distances ( a 1/2 mile call in a sprint is the same distance as a 1/2 mile call in a route), the BRIS Pace Ratings use the same 2-points-per-length scaling for all pace calls across all distances."

Now, you tell me, in a sprint race versus a route race, is a length the same? 2 points per length, regardless of the distance or the speed being run by the horses at any point of call, is utterly ridiculous.

This is why I don't use Bris pace ratings in my own handicapping (even though I've been a Bris data user for many years), preferring to adjust the raw times myself and use variable beaten length multipliers and fractional variants, all converted to velocities.

[bob60566]

Quoted from Brisnet:

"Unlike the BRIS Speed Ratings which employ a differing points-per-length scale depending on the race distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings use a fixed scale of 2-points-per-length for all pace calls (2f,4f, etc.) - regardless of the race distance. The fixed 2-points-per-length scale is based on the fact that, regardless of the entire race's distance, the ground covered for any given pace call (2f,4f,etc.) is the same - that is, a 1/4 mile call is equal to two furlongs regardless of whether the entire race is six furlongs or ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles). Since the pace calls being measured are equivalent across differing distances ( a 1/2 mile call in a sprint is the same distance as a 1/2 mile call in a route), the BRIS Pace Ratings use the same 2-points-per-length scaling for all pace calls across all distances."

Now, you tell me, in a sprint race versus a route race, is a length the same? 2 points per length, regardless of the distance or the speed being run by the horses at any point of call, is utterly ridiculous.

This is why I don't use Bris pace ratings in my own handicapping (even though I've been a Bris data user for many years), preferring to adjust the raw times myself and use variable beaten length multipliers and fractional variants, all converted to velocities.
Excellent reply
So how have your calculations stod up agaist Brisnet speed numbers :confused:

[raybo]

Excellent reply
So how have your calculations stod up agaist Brisnet speed numbers :confused:

Well, since I haven't used Bris speed numbers either, in years (due to my not knowing exactly how they are computed and, therefore, distrusting them), I couldn't really say, although they should be better than their pace ratings, because they do, at least, distinguish between distances via a sliding points per length scale, where the pace numbers do not.

I might add that one could, if one wanted to, add all the fractional velocities together, to get a total, weighting the 3 velocities as one sees fit, to get something that could be used instead of the Bris speed figs.

[eurocapper]

I was wondering here is it safe to assume that one distance is aways a fixed amount slower than another? Would it not be better to adjust for how fast the pace was in the given race. Bris seems to have something like that in the pace figure rating if I'm not mistaken.

[PhantomOnTour]

I was wondering here is it safe to assume that one distance is aways a fixed amount slower than another? Would it not be better to adjust for how fast the pace was in the given race. Bris seems to have something like that in the pace figure rating if I'm not mistaken.
BRIS does not have separate pace pars for routes and sprints; they are all on one scale.
So, just about every sprint split will have a higher rating than the routes since the first 1/2m in sprints is almost always faster than the first 1/2m in routes.
Example:
on most speed charts there are ratings for sprint and route splits and they are done on a different scale...as an example:
45.4 in a sprint = 100
46.8 in a route = 100
BRIS rates those two 1/2m times on the same scale, thus giving the sprinter the higher rating.

[eurocapper]

BRIS does not have separate pace pars for routes and sprints; they are all on one scale.
So, just about every sprint split will have a higher rating than the routes since the first 1/2m in sprints is almost always faster than the first 1/2m in routes.
Example:
on most speed charts there are ratings for sprint and route splits and they are done on a different scale...as an example:
45.4 in a sprint = 100
46.8 in a route = 100
BRIS rates those two 1/2m times on the same scale, thus giving the sprinter the higher rating.

I would agree that pars are the best way, but absent that I think I would prefer them unadjusted than adjusted by some fixed amount per distance. I recall reading somewhere pace pars are not easy to assemble. The class hierarchy of the Beyer's maybe also has less applicability for pace.

[PhantomOnTour]

I would agree that pars are the best way, but absent that I think I would prefer them unadjusted than adjusted by some fixed amount per distance. I recall reading somewhere pace pars are not easy to assemble. The class hierarchy of the Beyer's maybe also has less applicability for pace.
Anyone who makes speed & pace figs (including me) will tell you that using raw unadjusted times (and therefore unadjusted ratings and variants) is a very bad idea.
You simply cannot compare the raw times for two races run under the following conditions:
1) a fifth consecutive day of racing with no rain - just abundant sunshine
2) the day after a big overnight torrential downpour

[eurocapper]

Anyone who makes speed & pace figs (including me) will tell you that using raw unadjusted times (and therefore unadjusted ratings and variants) is a very bad idea.
You simply cannot compare the raw times for two races run under the following conditions:
1) a fifth consecutive day of racing with no rain - just abundant sunshine
2) the day after a big overnight torrential downpour

What I meant to say is I would prefer to have them unadjusted from Bris and make my own adjustments as needed. They are computer generated too, so I would not try to have them be too intelligent. I don't know if a route paceline is even applicable to a sprint, at least it should not be the first choice.

[PhantomOnTour]

What I meant to say is I would prefer to have them unadjusted from Bris and make my own adjustments as needed. They are computer generated too, so I would not try to have them be too intelligent. I don't know if a route paceline is even applicable to a sprint, at least it should not be the first choice.
Gotcha - i misunderstood your post.
I think Beyers are better than BRIS but he doesn't do pace.
I make my own and compare to BRIS & Beyer...imo it's the best way to go if you have the time to do it.

[raybo]

What I meant to say is I would prefer to have them unadjusted from Bris and make my own adjustments as needed. They are computer generated too, so I would not try to have them be too intelligent. I don't know if a route paceline is even applicable to a sprint, at least it should not be the first choice.

By all means, adjust the raw times yourself. Your adjustments have to be as good or better than the way Bris does it, ie: using a fixed time per beaten length, regardless of the distance or the early pace. It's so archaic, it defies reason.

[pandy]

I have a new book coming out which is at the printer now that shows how to use the Bris pace figures and race shapes to pick longshot winners and winners in general. It can also be used with the Moss pace figures report through Formulator or by itself. These are potent numbers if one knows how to use them.

[Dave Schwartz]

Pandy,

Please let me know how to purchase a copy of your book as soon as it is available.

Dave

[duncan04]

Pandy,

Please let me know how to purchase a copy of your book as soon as it is available.

Dave


Same here. It sounds interesting

[pandy]

Will do, thank you.

[Capper Al]

Hi all..

does anyone utilize Bris pace ratings (E1-E2-LP) ?
spot play or in program

thxs
mike

I use BRIS pace and modify them considering pace shape.

Tom's addition of TT to both E2 and LP is interesting.

Pandy, I'm waiting for you to announce that your book is on sale too.

[eurocapper]

I'm sure one can get good ROI by modifying them by distance. And I think Ray has proved it with his program here too. I suppose I just am leery of unnecessary adjustments and this had been bothering me for a while. There are all kinds of weighting issues to consider when one starts to play with numbers.

[jeebus1083]

When I used BRIS more often, I added TT to E2 to get an early composite rating -

ie, E1, E2, LP 87 92 98 (92-87=5) so 5+92 = 97 for the early. This was Sartin's contender factor in one of his early dos programs - Factor S in Contender Scan.

For late, I added TT to LP, here it would be 5+98 = 103. This horse would be a 97-103. To make it a total pace type rating, add the SR to that 103. Doing this in the Derby made the winner look pretty good at the odds. As seen after the race was over. :rolleyes:

Randy Guiles had a neat way of doing things - using the last three races and the best E2 and Best Lp for each horse, then using his Optimum Pace Model to evaluate the results.

CJ posted a neat, yet simple formula on the TimeformUS site to "extrapolate" the 2nd fraction. Example: 6F race... 90 F1/100 F2... multiply 100 * 4 (furlongs) subtracted by 90 * 2 (furlongs) and divide that difference by 2. 110 turn time fraction. At a Route distance, the TT fig will be higher or lower than the sprint version.

[mikesal57]

CJ posted a neat, yet simple formula on the TimeformUS site to "extrapolate" the 2nd fraction. Example: 6F race... 90 F1/100 F2... multiply 100 * 4 (furlongs) subtracted by 90 * 2 (furlongs) and divide that difference by 2. 110 turn time fraction. At a Route distance, the TT fig will be higher or lower than the sprint version.

Thxs Jee for bumping my thread from 5 years ago....:lol:

I'll check it out

Mike

Maybe someone found a way to better use these figs???