Preakness odds

[Valuist]

Here's my projections, 11 days out:

Animal Kingdom 2-1
Dialed In 4-1
Dance City 6-1
Shackleford 6-1
Mucho Macho Man 8-1
Sway Away 10-1
Flashpoint 12-1
Santiva 15-1
Concealed Identity 25-1
Astrology 25-1

[Spiderman]

Here's my projections, 11 days out:

Animal Kingdom 2-1
Dialed In 4-1
Dance City 6-1
Shackleford 6-1
Mucho Macho Man 8-1
Sway Away 10-1
Flashpoint 12-1
Santiva 15-1
Concealed Identity 25-1
Astrology 25-1


MMM will be shorter price than Dance and Shack. OK with the rest of it.

[lamboguy]

mucho macho is not running and neither is nehro


ANIMAL KINGDOM 4/5

[Leparoux]

Is this inside info on MMM? Haven't read anywhere that he won't be running.

[Beachbabe]

mucho macho is not running and neither is nehro


ANIMAL KINGDOM 4/5


Trainer Kathy Ritvo said the Derby third-placer MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) was doing well at her barn at Belmont Park and remains a serious prospect for the Preakness. She said that a report on the internet that Mucho Macho Man would pass the Preakness and race next in the Belmont Stakes was not accurate.

"That is absolutely not true," Ritvo explained. "The horse is doing well. We're in New York and the horse is doing really good and we'll see in the next couple days. He's definitely not out of the Preakness."

Ritvo said the bay son of Macho Uno owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team Racing has looked great in the days since his run in the Derby.

"He's bounced right out. I just want to be cautious with my horse and make sure that I have all the information before we point toward the Preakness," she said, "but he's doing really well."

[Valuist]

MMM will be shorter price than Dance and Shack. OK with the rest of it.

Dance City arguably ran the better race than both Archarcharch and Nehro in the Ark Derby. Shackleford was inside speed in the Derby on a day where the inside and speed were both bad. At one point, albeit briefly, he looked like he was going to win the race. Mucho Macho Man never looked like he would win.

I may be giving Dialed In too much credit. Shackleford put away all the other speed in the FL Derby while Dialed In had the perfect setup yet was still all out to win by a neck. I think 4-1 is too low on him. He should at least be 5-1. Animal Kingdom would probably absorb some of that and go down to 9-5.

[lamboguy]

if mmm runs then animal kingdom will be between 6/5 and 2-1 depending how well he and mmm are training. i would certainly hope that mmm runs, it would make for a competetive race.

[Plain Steve]

mucho macho is not running and neither is nehro
ANIMAL KINGDOM 4/5

if mmm runs then animal kingdom will be between 6/5 and 2-1 depending how well he and mmm are training. i would certainly hope that mmm runs, it would make for a competetive race.

Well which is it, first you say MMM is out, then it's "if MMM runs."
If you say he's out, its supposed to mean to read somewhere or have inside info. I think it's time you go on "ignore."

[calltopost]

Why such long odds on Astrology?

[lamboguy]

Well which is it, first you say MMM is out, then it's "if MMM runs."
If you say he's out, its supposed to mean to read somewhere or have inside info. I think it's time you go on "ignore."it was reported on the internet that mucho macho man will not be running. if you look at grits post above you will see that i was not the only one to hear that. i am only a human and i make plenty of mistakes and will continue to. you obviously are much smarter than myself and you have probably been right about everything your whole life. so if you are happy about posting that you are putting me on your ignore list, go for it, i am glad i made you happy enough to post that.

[Valuist]

Why such long odds on Astrology?

I did the odds without pps; just off the top of my head so they would need refining. But how much lower would Astrology be, maybe 15-1? I know his last race was on a very sloppy track but he didn't fare too well. Wasn't he running at Sunland or New Mexico before that? I can't get too worked up over him.

[Mineshaft]

I did the odds without pps; just off the top of my head so they would need refining. But how much lower would Astrology be, maybe 15-1? I know his last race was on a very sloppy track but he didn't fare too well. Wasn't he running at Sunland or New Mexico before that? I can't get too worked up over him.




Astrology ran at Sunland and at Aqueduct recently in the Jerome Grade 2

[Valuist]

Astrology ran at Sunland and at Aqueduct recently in the Jerome Grade 2

I thought the Jerome field was weak.

[calltopost]

But how much lower would Astrology be, maybe 15-1?

I don't know - I just like Asmussen horses and Astrology has been pretty consistent at first glance.

Nehro had some similar finishes (almost the same in fact, a WIN then two PLACE) and he went on to grab another PLACE in the KY Derby. I expect Astrology to hit the board as well - he has a WIN then three PLACE to his name in the last four outings.

I am going to try and pet him when I'm at Pimlico.

[Valuist]

I don't know - I just like Asmussen horses and Astrology has been pretty consistent at first glance.

Nehro had some similar finishes (almost the same in fact, a WIN then two PLACE) and he went on to grab another PLACE in the KY Derby. I expect Astrology to hit the board as well - he has a WIN then three PLACE to his name in the last four outings.

I am going to try and pet him when I'm at Pimlico.

Nehro's 2nd place finishes were in the Ark Derby and LA Derby; IMO two of the top 3 preps. Deep also rans from those races probably would've trashed the Jerome field that Astrology came out of.

Pet him or bet him?

[calltopost]

Nehro's 2nd place finishes were in the Ark Derby and LA Derby; IMO two of the top 3 preps. Deep also rans from those races probably would've trashed the Jerome field that Astrology came out of.
Nehro the better horse for sure.

But the consistency goes a long way for me with Silver Medallion, Uncle Mo and The Factor having poor finishes in their prep races. Astrology never been out of the money.

Preak field looks weaker than the Derby field too?

Pet him or bet him?

Both but I meant what I wrote..!

[Plain Steve]

it was reported on the internet that mucho macho man will not be running. if you look at grits post above you will see that i was not the only one to hear that. i am only a human and i make plenty of mistakes and will continue to. you obviously are much smarter than myself and you have probably been right about everything your whole life. so if you are happy about posting that you are putting me on your ignore list, go for it, i am glad i made you happy enough to post that.

It's all good, I came here to share info and make friends, not enemies.
I can't blame you for trying to be first with some breaking news
Usually something of that nature will show up quickly at either DRF.com or bloodhorse. com

[GatetoWire]

mucho macho is not running and neither is nehro


ANIMAL KINGDOM 4/5

Nerho has not been ruled out yet. There is still a chance he may run.

[lamboguy]

Nerho has not been ruled out yet. There is still a chance he may run.if he runs its good for the game. from personal experience, i don't think that skipping the preakness is a pre-requisite to winning the belmont. i am sure that the people that are involved with animal kingdom want to win the belmont, so i am sure that they want as much competition as they can possible get in the preakness. the timephrame between the kentucky derby and belmont is 5 weeks and its not that easy to keep a good 3 year old horse sharp for that long without running him. if it was that easy everyone would skip the preakness and just get ready for the belmont. one race is always worth more than 5 works.

[keithw84]

the timephrame between the kentucky derby and belmont is 5 weeks and its not that easy to keep a good 3 year old horse sharp for that long without running him. if it was that easy everyone would skip the preakness and just get ready for the belmont. one race is always worth more than 5 works.

Thought it would be interesting to take a look at the last 10 Belmont winners and how they preapred, race-wise:

2001 - Point Given:
Kentucky Derby
Preakness Stakes

2002 - Sarava
Allowance - 4/27
Sir Barton Stakes - 5/18

2003 - Empire Maker
Wood Memorial
Kentucky Derby - skipped Preakness

2004 - Birdstone
Lane's End Stakes
Kentucky Derby - skipped Preakness

2005 - Afleet Alex
Kentucky Derby
Preakness Stakes

2006 - Jazil
Wood Memorial
Kentucky Derby - skipped Preakness

2007 - Rags to Riches
Santa Anita Oaks
Kentucky Oaks - skipped Preakness

2008 - Da' Tara
Derby Trial Stakes - 4/26
Barbaro Stakes - 5/17

2009 - Summer Bird
Arkansas Derby
Kentucky Derby - skipped Preakness

2010 - Drosselmeyer:
Louisiana Derby - 3/27
Dwyer Stakes - 5/8

Out of the 10:
5 ran Derby weekend and skipped the Preakness
2 ran in the Derby and the Preakness
3 ran in neither

[GatetoWire]

Speaking of the Derby Trial...is Machen going to stay with sprints? Could he be possible for the Preakness?

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Speaking of the Derby Trial...is Machen going to stay with sprints? Could he be possible for the Preakness?

Trainer said after the Derby Trial that they will keep him in the middle distance 1 turn races from here on out. Not going to the preakness

[Valuist]

OK, with the field set, here's my updated odds:

1- Astrology 20-1
2- Norman 99-1
3- King Congie 30-1
4- Flashpoint 15-1
5- Shackleford 8-1
6- Sway Away 12-1
7- Midnight Interlude 10-1
8- Dance City 6-1
9- Mucho Macho Man 8-1
10- Dialed In 9-2
11- Animal Kingdom 2-1
12- Isnt He Perfect 99-1
13- Concealed Identity 30-1
14- Mr Commons 30-1

[sonnyp]

someone (my memory escapes me) wrote about the fact that, contrary to what one might think, secretariat and affirmed rather aggressively between the triple crown races.

one might assume that the 5 week schedule is so rigorous lightning the training would produce the best results but these 2 success stories endured just the opposite.

[jognlope]

I like Carson City horses, was Barbaro's broodmare sire -- Dancy City for me (how I don't know, don't do well on 10 centers or any other bet lately)