Slowest Derby Pace in 20 Years ?

[maddog42]

Animal Kingdom 73.40
super saver 70.58 sloppy
mine that bird 72.09
bib brown 71.14
street sense 71.13
barbaro 70.88
giacomo 69.59
smarty jones 71.8 sloppy
funny cide 70.48
war emblem 71.75
monarchos 69.25
fusiachi pegasus 69.99
charismatic 72.52
real quiet 70.62
silver charm 72.23
grindstone 70.15
thunder gulch 70.33
go for gin 71.89 sloppy
sea hero 71.22
lil e tee 72.37

After all the research I put into the derby, I wanted to see how much of an aberration this was. Slowest Derby Pace by far!!! I know it was a slow track, but THAT much slower. No.

[Spiderman]

It was the slowest early pace since 1946, won by the inaptly named, Jet Propulsion.

[FenceBored]

It was the slowest early pace since 1946, won by the inaptly named, Jet Propulsion.

1947 and the horse's name was Jet Pilot. But, you're right, he wasn't exactly jet propelled.

[Valuist]

Isn't Jet Propulsion a Calder based turf horse who's been running in the past 3-4 years?

[Spiderman]

Isn't Jet Propulsion a Calder based turf horse who's been running in the past 3-4 years?
Jet Propulsion is a speedball at a mile. Ran at GP, last year.

[Spiderman]

1947 and the horse's name was Jet Pilot. But, you're right, he wasn't exactly jet propelled.
First female owner to win Derby. You probably know that, too.

[depalma113]

And his :47 2/5 closing half mille was the fastest in how long?

[Spiderman]

And his :47 2/5 closing half mille was the fastest in how long?

Since Secretariat.

[Valuist]

There was something up with the track last Saturday because all 3 dirt routes had final times that seemed reasonable but all 3 had very slow internal fractions. Maybe there was a strong wind the horses had to run into on the backside, but helped them in the homestretch.

The 2nd race was a very strong NW1X with Worldly beating Bind for a 1:43 3/5 final clocking for 1 1/16 miles. The internal fractions were very slowish; :48 3/5 and 1:13 2/5.

Race 13 was another 1 1/16 mile race for a decent Mdn Sp Wt field. They finished in 1:45 with internals of :49 1/5 and 1:13 3/5.

[cj]

There was something up with the track last Saturday because all 3 dirt routes had final times that seemed reasonable but all 3 had very slow internal fractions. Maybe there was a strong wind the horses had to run into on the backside, but helped them in the homestretch.

The 2nd race was a very strong NW1X with Worldly beating Bind for a 1:43 3/5 final clocking for 1 1/16 miles. The internal fractions were very slowish; :48 3/5 and 1:13 2/5.

Race 13 was another 1 1/16 mile race for a decent Mdn Sp Wt field. They finished in 1:45 with internals of :49 1/5 and 1:13 3/5.

I've tried to make this point a few times as well. I think the fractions are very misleading if you don't make separate variants for each call.

[Onion Monster]

The fractions of all the two-turn races that day resembled turf times. I reckon there are two reasons why turf horses can't handle dirt: physical issues (foot-size, stride length, etc.) and pace pressure (dirt routing requires more energy to be exhausted early in the race). It will be interesting to see how Animal Kingdom will handle a true dirt route pace in Baltimore.

[PhantomOnTour]

The only real anamoly on CD's Sat card was the first race...a one turn mile. I have it as being fast to the 4f and 6f calls while the three 2 turn routes were all slow at those points. The final time variant & figs were pretty straightforward for sprints and routes.

[JPinMaryland]

if there was a strong wind, wouldn't you see it kicking up the dirt?

[cj]

if there was a strong wind, wouldn't you see it kicking up the dirt?

Wouldn't it depend how heavily it was watered?

[JPinMaryland]

I suppose it would/does. That never really occurred to me as usually I am watching video after the race and have not paid attention to the maintenance throughout the day. usually its obvious if I am watching Aquaduct or Arlington where the wind whips up...

Same for derby day. I did not see any dirt races before we got to the OTB and relied on discussions with other players as to how the surface was playing that day. Got pretty good info from an owner who said the track was playing very fair which suggests to me that the inside paths might be a little dead, although I dont think that guy would have gone so far. I think you mentioned, CJ, that you thought the inner paths were a little dead as well.

Did you have any thoughts on what the wind conditions were that day? The fractions were awfully bizarre for a fast track dont you think?

[JustRalph]

anybody suspect the timer? The system maybe ?

[BeatTheChalk]

I I watched the race on TV and then ran a few replays. It looked as if more
than a few .. did not like track. Just my eyeball test. Anyone else agree
or disagree. Obviouly the winner loved every step and lead change :)

[JustRalph]

I I watched the race on TV and then ran a few replays. It looked as if more
than a few .. did not like track. Just my eyeball test. Anyone else agree
or disagree. Obviouly the winner loved every step and lead change :)

apparently he can run on anything. Much to my chagrin

[RXB]

Ah, pace variants. Are the fractions relatively slow because of an environmental condition, e.g. wind? Or are they slow because the fields just happen to be somewhat short of early speed? Or are they slow because the jocks are taking stronger holds, sensing that the track isn't going to favour the standard energy expenditures of a dirt frontrunner? Those three causes have very different effects, not only on that particular race but also how a handicapper should assess a horse's performance when it returns for its next event.

Also, using the categories "one-turn" and "two-turn" comes with built-in imperfections and Derby day is an example. There's a huge difference between 10f and 8.5f, not just in terms of total distance but also in terms of how wind or a slow/fast section of the track might affect the respective fractions.

I reviewed the fractions right after the card and I didn't see any signs of a strong wind, certainly not a consistent one.

[JPinMaryland]

I reviewed the fractions right after the card and I didn't see any signs of a strong wind, certainly not a consistent one.

what exactly do you look for in the fractions to determine if there is wind?

[RXB]

what exactly do you look for in the fractions to determine if there is wind?

The easiest and most reliable is if the one-turn early fractions are uniformly slow while the stretch runs are relatively quick, it's usually a sign of a significant wind blowing against the runners on the backstretch. There are other iterations that take more investigation and are complicated by portions of fractions being run around both turn and straightaway.

I just took the time to check the archived Louisville wind conditions and Derby day was the fourth lightest wind day of the month to-date. Wasn't a calm day but the winds were fairly modest.

[cj]

what exactly do you look for in the fractions to determine if there is wind?

Honestly, I usually don't care why the fractions were slow if there are enough races carded at the distance.

RXB has a point about wind. For example at Aqueduct, the 6f, 7f and 1m races run 2f, 3f, and 4f down the backstretch, then two around the turn. At 6f the second fraction is around the turn. At 7f, it is half the second fraction and 1/3 of the final fraction.

If you do think wind is involved, it is pretty easy to look up the wind speed and direction and adjust for these things. However, the more adjustments made, the more errors made. Wind will also throw off speed charts. A 20mph backstretch headwind at 6f won't have as big an effect as the same headwind at 7f, and so on.