Which is easier?

[dav4463]

Being able to pick on average 40% winners at average odds of 2/1 or being able to pick 10% winners at average odds of 11/1 or somewhere in between? How about 5% winners at average odds of 23/1 ?

[thaskalos]

My guess is, that a 40% win rate at 2-1 average odds would be impossible in today's game.

[CincyHorseplayer]

A lot,well most of your winners would be 1-1 and 6/5,but it would be offset by the midrange horses.2-1 at 40% is doable.Personally,I can't get my Irish up for odds under 2-1.I get around 30% winners at an average mutuel of 7/2,but I don't get many bets to win either.In a 5 day betting week I might make 10 plays to win.

[CBedo]

Being able to pick on average 40% winners at average odds of 2/1 or being able to pick 10% winners at average odds of 11/1 or somewhere in between? How about 5% winners at average odds of 23/1 ?I don't think either is impossible. I have almost ZERO doubt I could hit 40% winners at 2/1...but I might not get 10 bets in a year, maybe not even 5, lol. If you're going to have requirements for win rate and avg odds, I think you also have to add a number of bets requirement as well. They're all important to the bottom line.

[toetoe]

A lot,well most of your winners would be 1-1 and 6/5,but it would be offset by the midrange horses.2-1 at 40% is doable.Personally,I can't get my Irish up for odds under 2-1.I get around 30% winners at an average mutuel of 7/2,but I don't get many bets to win either.In a 5 day betting week I might make 10 plays to win.


You're clobbering the races, man. 35% profit. :ThmbUp:



I would settle for 10%.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think either is impossible. I have almost ZERO doubt I could hit 40% winners at 2/1...but I might not get 10 bets in a year, maybe not even 5, lol. If you're going to have requirements for win rate and avg odds, I think you also have to add a number of bets requirement as well. They're all important to the bottom line.

I agree with this.

When I played primarily stakes on weekends I was able to average a very high win percentage and ROI, but the bet count was often ridiculously low because I was even passing many of those.

[CincyHorseplayer]

You're clobbering the races, man. 35% profit. :ThmbUp:



I would settle for 10%.

I don't know about that but win bets are a solid foundation to build upon.I don't make a ton of them because as I said,no bets under 2-1.So there can be quite a wait sometimes for solid horses with acceptable odds.

The thing with win bets is you can make it nearly anything you want.I could hit 40% if I accepted the shorter prices.I did it a long time ago.Then I took the zero favorites approach and had 20% winners at slightly over 6-1.

I think either extreme,in hit % or avg mutuel,is not necessary.But that could make a 20 page argument thread right there.The comfort zone is somewhere in the middle.Plus odds ranges overall produce their own hit %.I know I'll likely have a high hit % in the 2-1,5/2,3-1 bracket,but it will drop at 7/2 to 6-1,and even more at 7-1 and up.

[pondman]

Being able to pick on average 40% winners at average odds of 2/1 or being able to pick 10% winners at average odds of 11/1 or somewhere in between? How about 5% winners at average odds of 23/1 ?

For the year I'm currently at 46%-- with all bets being above 4-1. Don't think my betting would fit into a neatly shaped bell curve.

[Bruiser1]

I agree with this.

When I played primarily stakes on weekends I was able to average a very high win percentage and ROI, but the bet count was often ridiculously low because I was even passing many of those.

Have you found that "playable races" are far less than they once were?

I agree with your observation of bet count. Some days on the couple of tracks I follow, I find no wagers worth the risk.

[jamey1977]

Have you found that "playable races" are far less than they once were?

I agree with your observation of bet count. Some days on the couple of tracks I follow, I find no wagers worth the risk.
40 Percent winners at 6 dollars. I tried it. Did everything. Even waited for a week for a strong 2 to 1 . Loaded up on the win bet, still lost. My conclusion. A losing streak would wipe you out, too many tough beats. Photo finish losses. Bad break. Rider falls off. You would end up at about 20 percent winners at 6 dollars. So might as well pick the overlays. You could be at 15 to 20 percent winners at 17 dollar average with some intense handicapping. Stick with the overlays. 5 percent winners at 46 dollars is possible. But it takes forever. Do you like waiting a month and a half to score sometimes ? . Also have enough expenses for 4 months. It takes forever. The public is stupid. 5 percent at 46 dollars is the most probable one to attain.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Have you found that "playable races" are far less than they once were?

I agree with your observation of bet count. Some days on the couple of tracks I follow, I find no wagers worth the risk.

I know this isn't my question.But here's my answer.Yes.Don't bet.I bet 2-3 tracks on a Saturday and on a good day might make 10 bets.I get mad when I don't have a race I want to bet a lot on,so I pass.I don't buy into the betting to alleviate boredom schpiel.Not in this day and age.Too many races to look at.Pick the meat and potatoes.Plus you'll find your betting efficiency reach new levels than if you bet everything.For example,over the last 7 betting days I have made 15 prime bets and cashed 7 of them for a 138% ROI.I'm 5 for 20 on smaller bets for a 37% loss.What's the incentive to bet more often?Pick your spots brother.

[CincyHorseplayer]

40 Percent winners at 6 dollars. I tried it. Did everything. Even waited for a week for a strong 2 to 1 . Loaded up on the win bet, still lost. My conclusion. A losing streak would wipe you out, too many tough beats. Photo finish losses. Bad break. Rider falls off. You would end up at about 20 percent winners at 6 dollars. So might as well pick the overlays. You could be at 15 to 20 percent winners at 17 dollar average with some intense handicapping. Stick with the overlays. 5 percent winners at 46 dollars is possible. But it takes forever. Do you like waiting a month and a half to score sometimes ? . Also have enough expenses for 4 months. It takes forever. The public is stupid. 5 percent at 46 dollars is the most probable one to attain.

A 2-1 shot that should be even money is an overlay.Winners come in many shapes and forms and some of them are 2-1 shots that are give me's.

[uzeb]

I've never been able to get 40% winners at any odds over an extended period of time. However, my double-digit plays are coming in at about 12% since last Sept.

[Robert Goren]

I don't know that any of the choices or harder than the others. But at the higher odds choices, you would have to risk a small % of your bankroll if had a small bankroll to keep from going broke.

[wisconsin]

A 2-1 shot that should be even money is an overlay.Winners come in many shapes and forms and some of them are 2-1 shots that are give me's.


I think most people get carried away with what a true overlay is. A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2 is a tremendous percentage overlay, while the 6/1 going off at 10/1 is not so much. Yet, it is the higher priced overlays that people like to chase.

Also, if your horse is twice the price you figure it should be, you should be prepared to bet more without hesitation.

[toetoe]

I think most people get carried away with what a true overlay is. A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2 is a tremendous percentage overlay, while the 6/1 going off at 10/1 is not so much. Yet, it is the higher priced overlays that people like to chase.

Also, if your horse is twice the price you figure it should be, you should be prepared to bet more without hesitation.



I won't hang around right now for the anticipated argument, but I'll inform you once that a $4.80 shouldabeen paying $7.00 is an overlay of ~46%, and a $14 shouldabeen paying $22 is an overlay of 57%.

[Johnny V]

Being able to pick on average 40% winners at average odds of 2/1 or being able to pick 10% winners at average odds of 11/1 or somewhere in between? How about 5% winners at average odds of 23/1 ?
I do not think I could ever pick anything close to 40% winners at 2-1 average odds. IMO it is much easier to pick 10% at avg. odds of 11-1. I would think you would have to be an expert handicapper to win with that kind of hit rate at those low average odds. The higher odds with the corresponding higher payoffs just leave room for inevitable handicapping errors and will keep you in the game longer I would think.

[Broad Brush]

With all things being equal, they should be the same.

What I have found though is that the 10% winners at 11/1 are tougher
because the losing 9 out of 10 affects you mentally. This then changes your
judgement. Nothing in this game is strictly math. Controlling your emotions
really does affect how you play and the math outcome of the results.

Also, when talking of % don't forget that it won't always be over 10 plays.

You may pick 2 10% winners back to back and then lose 18 in a row.
After 20 plays you are at 10% but after 18 losers you may start questioning
if you are doing something wrong.

[Robert Fischer]

the lower your hit rate

the higher you need your bankroll to support it

[wisconsin]

I won't hang around right now for the anticipated argument, but I'll inform you once that a $4.80 shouldabeen paying $7.00 is an overlay of ~46%, and a $14 shouldabeen paying $22 is an overlay of 57%.


Math wizard, you are looking at this different than I do. 7/5 represents 42% of a win pool, let's say. 5/2 is roughly 28% of the pool. That is a true 14% overlay. Much more so than 6/1 (12.5%) going to 10/1. (9%). That's only a 3.5% overlay. I stand by my statement. Good luck.

[uzeb]

I think most people get carried away with what a true overlay is. A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2 is a tremendous percentage overlay, while the 6/1 going off at 10/1 is not so much. Yet, it is the higher priced overlays that people like to chase.

Also, if your horse is twice the price you figure it should be, you should be prepared to bet more without hesitation.

IMHO...a "solid" 7/5 going off at 5/2 is probably the very worst bet you could make. No...wait a minute...if it's going off at 5-1 it's even worse.

[classhandicapper]

Have you found that "playable races" are far less than they once were?

I agree with your observation of bet count. Some days on the couple of tracks I follow, I find no wagers worth the risk.

Yes. I play mostly NYRA and out of town Graded Stakes. I often pass entire days now.

1. There are more small fields.

2. I'm not a fan of races with a lot of "first time turf" horses and those seem to be increasing in number.

3. It seems to me there are fewer biased racetracks (which is always a good source of bets on the day it happens and then when horses come back)

4. IMO there is way more good information available to more people.

[windoor]

the lower your hit rate

the higher you need your bankroll to support it

Very true, and the mental toughness you need to play with low hit rates is hard to come by.

This is why I hate playing anything that shows a hit rate less than 25%. I do have one play that hits at a rate of 20% or so. It has such a high average odd, I'm willing to suffer through it.

Even at 28% (my current level) I have some god awful losing streaks.

I think It would help, if I didn't look at the results or bank balance, until the week is up. I wonder if could go a whole month?

Regards,

Windoor

[thaskalos]

the lower your hit rate

the higher you need your bankroll to support it
That's why I consider the "ROI" to be a very overrated statistic.

The best handicapping and betting method is not the one with the highest ROI...

It's the one which will allow you to double your bankroll in the quickest time!

There is a BIG difference...

[Robert Fischer]

I think most people get carried away with what a true overlay is. A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2 is a tremendous percentage overlay, while the 6/1 going off at 10/1 is not so much. Yet, it is the higher priced overlays that people like to chase.

Also, if your horse is twice the price you figure it should be, you should be prepared to bet more without hesitation.

I won't hang around right now for the anticipated argument, but I'll inform you once that a $4.80 shouldabeen paying $7.00 is an overlay of ~46%, and a $14 shouldabeen paying $22 is an overlay of 57%.


Here's a look into what I mean when I talk about hit% and bankroll size.
I'll use the above debate.
This is not meant to pick sides, but only to illustrate my particular way of doing it right or wrong and hopefully contribute.

:1:A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2
$2 wager pays $7. Hit%=43.75%. value=3.0625

:2:A solid 6/1 going off at 10/1
$2 wager pays $22. Hit%=14.29%. value=3.1429

^So..., looking at the above example the $22 Horse has the better value.

however, there are more steps to do.
(can't leave well enough alone) :bang:

Then I run the HIT% through the maximum probable consecutive loss equation (just plug it in excel) and then calculate a bet size with respect to my current bankroll(using a mythical $1,000 bankroll for this example).

:1:A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2
$2 wager pays $7. Hit%=43.75%. value=3.0625
maximum probable consecutive losses=16
1/4bankroll wager = $16


:2:A solid 6/1 going off at 10/1
$2 wager pays $22. Hit%=14.29%. value=3.1429
maximum probable consecutive losses=60
1/4bankroll wager = $4


ANSWER??
BOTH can be great wagers
You do need at least $500 in your roll to safely bet #2, and at least around $130 in your roll to safely bet #1.
If you could be 100% sure about the given returns and probabilities, #2 would be slightly better do its higher "value".
Neither wager is an extremely low hit rate, but wager #2 could show a 60 race losing streak within your betting lifetime. Really would require a high degree of mental toughness!

[classhandicapper]

Here's a look into what I mean when I talk about hit% and bankroll size.
I'll use the above debate.
This is not meant to pick sides, but only to illustrate my particular way of doing it right or wrong and hopefully contribute.

:1:A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2
$2 wager pays $7. Hit%=43.75%. value=3.0625

:2:A solid 6/1 going off at 10/1
$2 wager pays $22. Hit%=14.29%. value=3.1429

^So..., looking at the above example the $22 Horse has the better value.

however, there are more steps to do.
(can't leave well enough alone) :bang:

Then I run the HIT% through the maximum probable consecutive loss equation (just plug it in excel) and then calculate a bet size with respect to my current bankroll(using a mythical $1,000 bankroll for this example).

:1:A solid 7/5 going off at 5/2
$2 wager pays $7. Hit%=43.75%. value=3.0625
maximum probable consecutive losses=16
1/4bankroll wager = $16


:2:A solid 6/1 going off at 10/1
$2 wager pays $22. Hit%=14.29%. value=3.1429
maximum probable consecutive losses=60
1/4bankroll wager = $4


ANSWER??
BOTH can be great wagers
You do need at least $500 in your roll to safely bet #2, and at least around $130 in your roll to safely bet #1.
If you could be 100% sure about the given returns and probabilities, #2 would be slightly better do its higher "value".
Neither wager is an extremely low hit rate, but wager #2 could show a 60 race losing streak within your betting lifetime. Really would require a high degree of mental toughness!


I think a good mix of bets is the best way to avoid the mental issues associated with long losing streaks. When I find an overlay betting to place on a short priced horse, I am thrilled. I know historically I hit about 80% of those bets. Mixing those in with some of the lower probability bets brings some stability to my bankroll and emotional state. The same thing can be said for using some of the longer priced horses 2nd or 3rd in exotics as well as on top.

[Robert Fischer]

I think a good mix of bets is the best way to avoid the mental issues associated with long losing streaks. When I find an overlay betting to place on a short priced horse, I am thrilled. I know historically I hit about 80% of those bets. Mixing those in with some of the lower probability bets brings some stability to my bankroll and emotional state. The same thing can be said for using some of the longer priced horses 2nd or 3rd in exotics as well as on top.

thats a great point.

Having a staple/foundation/supplement of high percentage plays to mix in really helps to stabilize.

With the example I did above, it's clear that :eek: !60 LOSSES IN A ROW :eek:
can occur!

^and It can be confusing at first (counter intuitive) :confused: :mad: :confused:
because its a 14% play, you figure to hit one outta seven !

If you lose 10 or 15 in a row you may start to second guess yourself!

The vast vast majority of players would be full of doubt if they even went 30 LOSSES IN A ROW!

AND YET YOU COULD BE PLAYING PERFECTLY ON THAT 1/7CHANCE, YOU COULD BE KILLING THE GAME, GETTING $22 FOR YOUR 6-1SHOTS AND PLAYING IT EXACTLY RIGHT, AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF PROBABILITY TO LOSE 30,40,50,EVEN 60 TIMES IN A ROW.

this is where the math helps a little bit with mental stability.

If you understand these things, then you can train yourself and educate yourself to deal with it. You still have to be a good horseplayer to use skill, and you can't be losing a bunch in a row or something because you stink, and then convince yourself that you are playing great and this is simply probability going through a cycle - you have to actually be correct.

- These kind of things can be VERY difficult.
mANY would say that this game is hard enough without this kind of mental stress.
Windoor had another top notch post as follows:
Very true, and the mental toughness you need to play with low hit rates is hard to come by.

This is why I hate playing anything that shows a hit rate less than 25%. I do have one play that hits at a rate of 20% or so. It has such a high average odd, I'm willing to suffer through it.

Even at 28% (my current level) I have some god awful losing streaks.

I think It would help, if I didn't look at the results or bank balance, until the week is up. I wonder if could go a whole month?

long post but I want to get back to the "mixing" idea that ClassHandicapper mentioned. I want to get a little more advanced and talk about "mixing" in wagers within the same race or same race sequence.

Not only does it help to mix overall, I think there are times when it is worth considering Covering MORE horses in certain situations.

:confused: IN EFFECT, I'm now bringing up the age old dilemma of whether or not you should ever "bet against yourself", or "cover several horses".

This dilemma is usually characterized by the choice of either:
betting ONLY THE BEST OVERLAY?? or BET AGAINST YOURSELF??

i've heard arguments for both cases.

my personal opinion is that it again starts with bankroll size.
In other words if your bankroll is UNLIMITED :eek: don't bet against yourself (keeping it simple here, we don't need to get into whale-play,poolsize,maxchurn so much as looking at the intended betagainstSelf?? topic).

If your bankroll is very meager(of course this is purely theoretical, ive never actually played with a small bankroll ;) ) - spread! cover! dutch! hedge! mix! green-up! etc...

but where most players find themselves is somewhere in between, and there are certain techniques that I have found useful for betting against yourself, and there are certain recurring patterns that I have noticed can be routinely exploited whenever those stars align. The basic concept involves basically "BUYING SOME HIT% IN EXCHANGE FOR SOME VALUE". When hit percentage is "on sale at a great price" I consider it. At times I will force the issue and actually set up a wager (often a multi-race) in such a premeditated way that I can buy the hit percentage at a wholesale rate. Other times I will ONLY wager on the best possible value and do not want to bet-against myself.
Ive heard lots of players say "DON'T DO IT!"

[windoor]

IN EFFECT, I'm now bringing up the age old dilemma of whether or not you should ever "bet against yourself", or "cover several horses".

This dilemma is usually characterized by the choice of either:
betting ONLY THE BEST OVERLAY?? or BET AGAINST YOURSELF??

i've heard arguments for both cases.

my personal opinion is that it again starts with bankroll size.
In other words if your bankroll is UNLIMITED :eek: don't bet against yourself (keeping it simple here, we don't need to get into whale-play,poolsize,maxchurn so much as looking at the intended betagainstSelf?? topic).

If your bankroll is very meager(of course this is purely theoretical, ive never actually played with a small bankroll ;) ) - spread! cover! dutch! hedge! mix! green-up! etc...

but where most players find themselves is somewhere in between, and there are certain techniques that I have found useful for betting against yourself, and there are certain recurring patterns that I have noticed can be routinely exploited whenever those stars align. The basic concept involves basically "BUYING SOME HIT% IN EXCHANGE FOR SOME VALUE". When hit percentage is "on sale at a great price" I consider it. At times I will force the issue and actually set up a wager (often a multi-race) in such a premeditated way that I can buy the hit percentage at a wholesale rate. Other times I will ONLY wager on the best possible value and do not want to bet-against myself.

Ive heard lots of players say "DON'T DO IT!"

The ABC method:

Lets say you (handicapper A) have a method of picking horses that hit at 30% of the time, and a positive ROI. I also have a method (handicapper B) and hit at 28% of the time with a positive ROI.

Our friend (handicapper C) is not so good at 25% of the time, but has a higher average odd then both of us and thus a better ROI.

It is likely that we would at times pick different horses in the same race, and likely that each would have a preferred “type” of race to play.

If all had a positive ROI, would it not be wise to play all three selections, even when all three had a different opinion on the same race?

I do this quite regularly as I have different spot/angle plays that can show up in the same race.

As long as each method has a proper supporting bank, then go for it. When everything is clicking, I can hit (Dec 2009) 46% of my races. When things are not doing so well, I can go 38 losers in a row (Dec 2010) for a 22% hit rate on the month. I certainly wasn't bragging on myself that month.

I do not know which race I will win, only that over time I will win approx 28% of them.

I have liked horses very much only to see them run up the track. I have wagered on horses I really do hate, at watch them win at over 40 to 1. Go figure.

Regards,

Windoor.

[castaway01]

I've done 30% at 5-2 for sustained periods; not sure about 40%. I don't think I could handle the 10% at 11-1. Mentally, sorry, wish I was a rock like some guys, but I'd quit after the 0-for-30 streak and then two $30 winners would follow. So, I'd say the longshot 10% is hardest but both are hard.

[windoor]

That's why I consider the "ROI" to be a very overrated statistic.

The best handicapping and betting method is not the one with the highest ROI...

It's the one which will allow you to double your bankroll in the quickest time!

There is a BIG difference...

I would agree, I think. It would always come down to how many races you can play over a given amount of time. Hit percent and average odd is all important here.

A lower (positive) ROI by half will outperform a higher one if the lower ROI method allows more than twice the number of plays in the same time period.

My head hurts.

Regards,

Windoor

[CincyHorseplayer]

I still add up the totality of my bets by return and ROI but don't you guys separate each odds bracket as it's own entity?Have different break points?I have different rules and bet types for each odds bracket.I won't go into detail,but I know every single move I can or can't make when I see odds.

-less than 1-1

-1-1 to 9/5

-2-1 to 3-1

-7/2 to 6-1

-7-1 and up

The lower the odds the more restrictive obviously.But these odds ranges all seem to have historical win % and personal betting histories reflect them for each individual.I think we all should have rules and regulations within each odds bracket.

[windoor]

I still add up the totality of my bets by return and ROI but don't you guys separate each odds bracket as it's own entity?Have different break points?I have different rules and bet types for each odds bracket.I won't go into detail,but I know every single move I can or can't make when I see odds.

-less than 1-1

-1-1 to 9/5

-2-1 to 3-1

-7/2 to 6-1

-7-1 and up

The lower the odds the more restrictive obviously.But these odds ranges all seem to have historical win % and personal betting histories reflect them for each individual.I think we all should have rules and regulations within each odds bracket.


I know it goes against the grain here, but I do not look at the odds. It's true.

Lately I have been using the conditional wager at TwinSpires for a minimum odd at 2 minutes before post, but this is for testing new plays.

Regards,

Windoor

[Robert Fischer]

I know it goes against the grain here, but I do not look at the odds. It's true.

wow !

[Kaufman Stables]

I was told by someone that its true that Favorites on average win 33% of the time but this also means they lose 67% of the time. So with that being said stay away from favorites a majority of the time. What is everyones take on that statistic? Is it really true?

[JustRalph]

I was told by someone that its true that Favorites on average win 33% of the time but this also means they lose 67% of the time. So with that being said stay away from favorites a majority of the time. What is everyones take on that statistic? Is it really true?

lately it's been around 40% where I play. And the 2nd Fav is doing better also.

[castaway01]

I was told by someone that its true that Favorites on average win 33% of the time but this also means they lose 67% of the time. So with that being said stay away from favorites a majority of the time. What is everyones take on that statistic? Is it really true?

It's probably a little higher than 33% now because fields are shorter, but historically that has been the number. It's not something we need a "take" on---guys (not me) can search their databases and come up with the winning favorite percentage these days. In fact, I bet if you search you'll find some information that has been posted about the winning percentages of favorites at varous tracks (hint, hint).

As far as "avoiding" favorites, silly as it might sound, you don't have to avoid them if you know which of the 33% would win. Sure, looking for a price is best, but hard to make a blanket statement about all races.