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PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 04:57 AM
It can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/

highnote
05-07-2011, 11:11 AM
I have the same first three horses as you - although, I like Soldat, Arch and then Master.

After those, I have no strong opinion.

Good Luck!

Blenheim
05-07-2011, 11:33 AM
A few observations regarding your analysis.

What about the racetrack surface at the rail? I've only seen a couple of races so I'm not sure, but the races I did see, most of em' got off the rail and went a few wide - rail was dead.
~
You wrote Archarcharch has "stay out of trouble" early speed and you also wrote that this Derby will be "a very contentious event when it comes to the early pace." You've got Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Shakelford, Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Stay Thirsty contenting for the early lead and likely out in front of Archarcharch. When he gets to the first turn where "out of trouble" will Archarcharch be with respect to your early speed analysis? With your early speed analysis, he will be running at least eighth and that may be the best case scenario. If Archarcharch changes his running style, goes early and does get "out of trouble" in front of this early speed, will he use the precious energy needed for his "keep the cavalry at bay late punch?"

You believe the horse winning this one will be coming off the pace. You wrote "I really don't want anything to do with horses that are going to be contesting things early. You also wrote, "I really wanted to make Soldat my top choice, but I just couldn't, based on the fact that it appears to me that he's not quite fast enough to get near the front where he does his best running." If you believe the horse winning this race will be a sustained runner how can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your "top choice"? How can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your second choice? How can you make an E/P runner like Shakelford your third pick?

If I understand your analysis correctly, Archarcharch a presser, will have to use some speed to get out of trouble early and likely be mid pack. He will then fall back and come from behind and run down two speed horses that "you really don't want anything to do with."

I don't get it. Am I reading this correctly?

AS far as Master of Hounds, I have concluded that if he is as good as his pedigree indicates, he would have proved it.

Best or racing luck.



:1::2::2:

Dave Schwartz
05-07-2011, 11:40 AM
Okay, I'll play. Not sure how dependable NewPace will be in a race like this but...

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/NewPace/2011-05-07-Ky%20Derby.png

Order of preference (not betting order)
15-8-7-13-1

I will bet highest odds down to lowest odds, until I am getting below 3/2 in a dutch. Then I will stop. (I will actually bet them all flat.)


Dave Schwartz

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 11:50 AM
A few observations regarding your observations Blenheim.

Soldat would have been my top choice if he had shown the ability to run well from off the pace. He is NOT my top choice, so I'm not sure why you're writing "how can you make an E/P like Soldat your top choice..."

I can easily make him my second choice, or Shackleford my third choice. In my analysis, I'm talking mostly about whom I think the winner will be. We all know the second and third place finishers often do NOT fit the WINNING profile, and often times, are the complete OPPOSITE of the winning profile.

As for Archarcharch, I think I spelled it out pretty clearly. I don't want any horse for the top spot who will be contesting the early pace. It's pretty clear Archarcharch will not be contesting the early pace. However, this is a 20 horse field, and Archarcharch has shown many times in the past the ability to sit in the upper third of the field early on. To me, this is "stay out of trouble" speed in a 19 horse field such as the Derby. He's not a deep closer who is going to have to navigate around 14 runners in front of him. Again, to me this is "stay out of trouble" speed.

As for the start, I don't think he will have to "use" any early speed to stay out of trouble. He has no speed towards his immediate right, although in my analysis I was mistaken when I said the three horses to his right. I don't think he can outbreak Stay Thirsty, so he should be able to outbreak the two horses to his immediate right, while the next four horses outbreak him, leaving him with what I believe will be enough room to maneuver into a comfortable position, eventually settling in seventh or eighth place early on, which in my opinion would be a perfect spot for this horse.

RXB
05-07-2011, 11:51 AM
A few observations regarding your analysis.

What about the racetrack surface at the rail? I've only seen a couple of races so I'm not sure, but the races I did see, most of em' got off the rail and went a few wide - rail was dead.
~
You wrote Archarcharch has "stay out of trouble" early speed and you also wrote that this Derby will be "a very contentious event when it comes to the early pace." You've got Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Shakelford, Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Soldat and Stay Thirsty contenting for the early lead and likely out in front of Archarcharch. When he gets to the first turn where "out of trouble" will Archarcharch be with respect to your early speed analysis? With your early speed analysis, he will be running at least eighth and that may be the best case scenario. If Archarcharch changes his running style, goes early and does get "out of trouble" in front of this early speed, will he use the precious energy needed for his "keep the cavalry at bay late punch?"

You believe the horse winning this one will be coming off the pace. You wrote "I really don't want anything to do with horses that are going to be contesting things early. You also wrote, "I really wanted to make Soldat my top choice, but I just couldn't, based on the fact that it appears to me that he's not quite fast enough to get near the front where he does his best running." If you believe the horse winning this race will be a sustained runner how can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your "top choice"? How can you make an E/P runner like Soldat your second choice? How can you make an E/P runner like Shakelford your third pick?

If I understand your analysis correctly, Archarcharch a presser, will have to use some speed to get out of trouble early and likely be mid pack. He will then fall back and come from behind and run down two speed horses that "you really don't want anything to do with."

I don't get it. Am I reading this correctly?

AS far as Master of Hounds, I have concluded that if he is as good as his pedigree indicates, he would have proved it.

Best or racing luck.


Why not just post your own analysis?

Robert Goren
05-07-2011, 01:18 PM
This is how I see it. Best horse, best jockey, and best trainer are all together and throw in the best name for good measure. The winner is :11: Master Of The Hounds.

Red Knave
05-07-2011, 01:32 PM
We're out for dinner so I probably won't even get to watch live :mad:
So I bet early. Hope it doesn't rain much.

Bet Churchill, Race 11, $10.00 WIN 1,11,13 $30.00 86667512078577 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXB 1,11,13 $6.00 36776931942556 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXB 1,7,8,11,13,19 $30.00 37324703623524 Cancel
Bet Churchill, Race 11, $1.00 EXA 1,11,13 / 1,7,8,11,13-17,19 $27.00 17956677886231 Cancel

Bruddah
05-07-2011, 02:16 PM
It can be found here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/


Not shameless self promotion, pretty good analysis. I have a few additional opinions, but that's horse racing....Good Luck today!

JustRalph
05-07-2011, 02:33 PM
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.

As she left the room she was singing

"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"

do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ :lol: :lol:

depalma113
05-07-2011, 03:31 PM
Just so it doesn't get lost:

Midnight Interlude
Dialed In
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

Will add Master of Hounds, Soldat, Brilliant Speed, underneath in the exotics.

Rookies
05-07-2011, 03:47 PM
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.

As she left the room she was singing

"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"

do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ :lol: :lol:

Is that the ONLY Gay horse in the KD, Ralphie ? Hmmmm ? :rolleyes: ;) :lol:

JustRalph
05-07-2011, 04:15 PM
Is that the ONLY Gay horse in the KD, Ralphie ? Hmmmm ? :rolleyes: ;) :lol:

we won't know for a couple of seasons....... :lol:

But just for luck I went into the garage and broke out some old police equipment and a hard hat to wear during the race. I am ripping the sleeves out of my t-shirt as I type this...........

bcgreg
05-07-2011, 04:19 PM
LOL!

You "guys" are too much!

bcgreg

Tom
05-07-2011, 04:35 PM
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.

As she left the room she was singing

"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"

do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ :lol: :lol:

If he loses, will you be sleeping at the YMCA tonight? :lol:

gm10
05-07-2011, 04:49 PM
My automated odds line is

Dialed In 6/1
ArchArchArch 7/1
Master Of Hounds 8/1

I don't trust any of them, however. I don't trust any horse in this field.
Except for some antepost bets on Master Of Hounds, my only bet is Animal Kingdom.

goingbroke
05-07-2011, 05:50 PM
Am I the only one who likes :6: Comma to the top?

JustRalph
05-07-2011, 06:06 PM
Am I the only one who likes :6: Comma to the top?

yes

but that could be a good thing

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 06:45 PM
Worst....Derby....Evah.....lol

At least for me... :faint:

lamboguy
05-07-2011, 06:48 PM
i was way off myself, except i did know that steve assmussen's daddy left texas for this and he did run second

Tom
05-07-2011, 06:52 PM
Comma to the Bottom

098poi
05-07-2011, 06:52 PM
I used 7 horses and not one is in the super. Oh well :bang:

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 06:52 PM
My automated odds line is

Dialed In 6/1
ArchArchArch 7/1
Master Of Hounds 8/1

I don't trust any of them, however. I don't trust any horse in this field.
Except for some antepost bets on Master Of Hounds, my only bet is Animal Kingdom.Like you, I went against my automated odds line...unlike you, I didn't cash. Congrats!

Why did you like the winner?

Tom
05-07-2011, 06:55 PM
Nice call GM10!
And......ZENYATTA WINS IT! ZENYATTA WINS IT!
With a poly horse!

What irony!:lol:


098poi - between us, we had 11 of them not in the super!:D

surfdog89
05-07-2011, 06:57 PM
I hate to say I said so.... but read my notes on the Derby
http://handicapperscorner.blogspot.com/2011/05/kentucky-derby-day.html

It took 40 years to pick a winner:lol:

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 07:05 PM
Excellent Surfdog! :ThmbUp:

surfdog89
05-07-2011, 07:08 PM
Thanks Pace.... sometimes a blind squirrel can find a nut or two:lol:

RXB
05-07-2011, 07:11 PM
You found several nuts today, Surfdog. I count five winners on top so far from the first 11 races and only one was the chalk. Well done.

parlay
05-07-2011, 07:15 PM
Great day for you,
ENJOY :jump: :jump: :jump:

andymays
05-07-2011, 07:16 PM
Good job!

Tape Reader
05-07-2011, 07:38 PM
Hey Pace,

Great quote: "I'm concentrating all of my efforts and resources on the S&P these days."

and... you do not have to deal with feedback.

--Tape Reader

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 07:40 PM
If you're taking that to mean I am not concentrating any effort or resources on horse racing, you have severely misinterpreted me.

I clearly meant I am not splitting up my trading resources amongst the S&P and CL (Oil), but focusing only on the S&P.

Thanks for allowing me to correct you. :lol:

Vinnie
05-07-2011, 07:49 PM
Congrats to anyone that had Animal Kingdom. To me at the very highest on ratings he was maybe 7th or 8th. The only way that I would have had him was if I had a daughter or son that would have seen his name and mentioned something about Disney's Animal Kingdom or something :) . Never raced before on dirt and with only 5 starts since his 2 year old year, if I am not mistaken? Go figure! Good for he and his connections though. I am very happy for them. He finished in a very impressive fashion pretty much kicking away from the field in that last furlong or so. It was a very nice race and he was clearly the best out there today...

Tom
05-07-2011, 07:57 PM
I had AK ranked 17 on third fraction!
Gotta look at that code again~:D

Tape Reader
05-07-2011, 08:01 PM
If you're taking that to mean I am not concentrating any effort or resources on horse racing, you have severely misinterpreted me.

I clearly meant I am not splitting up my trading resources amongst the S&P and CL (Oil), but focusing only on the S&P.

Thanks for allowing me to correct you. :lol:

Hey Pace,

In no way did I mean it in disrespect. I was just sympathizing with a Guy that goes out on a limb, and then is second guessed.

IMO, more horseplayers should try trading the S&P where there is only "you" to blame for your losses.

Tape Reader

GaryG
05-07-2011, 08:18 PM
I missed the exacta but had WP on AK.

Red Knave
05-07-2011, 10:21 PM
My wife just walked in the room and asked to see the names of all the Derby Horses........she picked Mucho Macho Man and told me to put 5 across.
As she left the room she was singing
"Mucho Macho Man" to the tune of the Village People song "Macho Man"
do all the analysis you want......it's a done deal........ :lol: :lol:

We actually got to watch until about 6:00PM. My wife asked me who were the best jockeys in the race. I patiently explained to her that jockeys don't win races, horses do. But then I said 'Well, probably Stay Thirsty, Master of Hounds and Animal Kingdom'. She said, 'Well, for sure Animal Kingdom'. I said, I don't think I can get a bet down before the race and she said, 'Aww, too bad'.

:bang: :blush: :eek: :p
:rolleyes: ;)

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2011, 10:27 PM
Hey Pace,

In no way did I mean it in disrespect. I was just sympathizing with a Guy that goes out on a limb, and then is second guessed.

IMO, more horseplayers should try trading the S&P where there is only "you" to blame for your losses.

Tape ReaderSorry, I'm a tad touchy after getting my brains beaten in by the Kentucky Derby... :bang: :lol:

redshift1
05-08-2011, 01:18 AM
Several of the TVG & HRTV handicappers changed to AK in the last 24-48 hours
How does something like that happen ?????

boogazie
05-08-2011, 01:21 AM
Several of the TVG & HRTV handicappers changed to AK in the last 24-48 hours
How does something like that happen ?????

The jockey upgrade perhaps.

redshift1
05-08-2011, 01:43 AM
The jockey upgrade perhaps.

Maybe, just odd several switched...

JohnGalt1
05-08-2011, 09:45 AM
I had Animal Kingdom only because I thought any one could win so the race was unbettable.

So what I did--genius that I am-- was play two pick 3's and a $.50 pick 4 using ALL in the Derby.

I singled #4 De Price in the 12th race in all 3 tickets. Result--two 2/3's and a 3/4. :bang:

JBmadera
05-08-2011, 09:49 AM
If you're taking that to mean I am not concentrating any effort or resources on horse racing, you have severely misinterpreted me.

I clearly meant I am not splitting up my trading resources amongst the S&P and CL (Oil), but focusing only on the S&P.

Thanks for allowing me to correct you. :lol:

Mike - off topic I know but I am curious, why did you drop trading CL? I've dropped the ES and now just trade the CL and the 6E.

thx,

jb

PaceAdvantage
05-09-2011, 01:49 AM
Mike - off topic I know but I am curious, why did you drop trading CL? I've dropped the ES and now just trade the CL and the 6E.

thx,

jbThe method I was employing in the CL had a ridiculous risk/reward ratio. I likened it in an earlier thread to picking up quarters on the expressway. Sooner or later, you're going to get run over by an 18-wheeler. After being hit with a few of those tractor trailers, I realized I'd be much better off psychologically if I were to take the buying power I was devoting to the CL and use that instead to up my trade size in the ES, where I was employing a much sounder risk/reward strategy.

I'm not saying my strategy in the CL was unprofitable...it was profitable long term, but when you lose, you lose BIG in a relative way, potentially wiping out weeks of profit in one bad trade. That just isn't a very sound way to trade in my opinion.

lamboguy
05-09-2011, 04:07 AM
last week silver took a hit from $49 down to $33, yes all in one week. in consul charting 3 black crows showed up, which often means a move back up to the highs when the 3 black crows hit at the highs. if you date back to 1980 silver did hit $50 for a brief moment, so i don't know if you can use this method to trade silver right back up to its recent high because it technically never went to a brand new high from 30 years ago. i bought it @$35 and am using a trailing stop to play it from here to possibly $50