MV McKee
10-28-2003, 03:46 AM
I was curious if anyone else used a shotgun (spread wide) approach to Breeder's Cup races.
In looking at the past 8 years of results, I have come to the conclusion that the best way to play the Breeder's Cup races is to invest in the Superfecta and Pick3 pools.
I don't make a line in the same manner as I do for day to day races at tracks I am intimately familiar with. I just don't have a good enough handle on all the entrants to produce anything even remotely accurate.
Because of the huge influx of "casual" public money I feel there is a larger than usual margin for error. So, for the Breeder's Cup I do things differently.
The night before, rather than make a line, I make a text document to use as a rough guideline for my betting the next day.
Rather than handicap thoroughly, I just categorize a few things:
The race:
Is this a race where I am simply spreading trying to beat a fav or where I have an actual strong opinion.
Th horses:
1) Horses I am making a case for )almost always longshots)
2) Horses I am making a case against (likely to be overbet, not always favs)
3) Horses I eliminate from all money positions (1st - 4th).
I also throw in a bunch of notes to myself on things to check as the day progresses. Such as how the track is playing (vs my assumptions) or how a trainer with multiple entries is doing.
This is a far cry from how I usually handicap and wager on races. But I have not been very successful with the BC using my usual everyday approaches.
I am pasting the draft I used during this years cup. please don't laugh, there are some ludicrous picks in there.
I am just trying to pick some brains in here and find out if anyone else uses a similar approach, or also feels that the BC races involve a COMPLETLY different approach that the methods they usually use. The other problem is that there are so few horses I can eliminate. Out of 91 this year, i could only eliminate 17. So in some cases, I am throwing $500 into a superfecta pool, all on $1 tickets. Not sure if this is a smart way to invest. Certainly not on a day to day basis. But I am not certain it isn't warranted on BC day. Any opinions?
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Distaff:Moderate, spread v.s PlayAgainst
Profit scenario is Sightseek not running.
Assuming Cal based fillies have advantage.
Should be moderate pace.
1)Elloluv-2LO, Trainer
2)Got Koko-Against pace in last, good track
3)Lady Tak-Most likely non Cal after fav
LS)Adoration-3LO, ins speed did well Friday
PlayAgainst:
Sightseek-SoSo SA record, Frankel poor BC record
Take Charge Lady-Terrible last
Eliminations:
Buy The Sport
Juvenile Fillies:Weak, Key Hollywood Story
Profit scenario is Halfbridled not running.
1)Hollywood Story-Blinks, CalBased, closed into slow fracs last
2)Society Selection-Closer, 3Life,2Route
3)Victory U. S. A.-Bailey, ok pace in last, CalBased
LS)Zosima-Day, patient may get late part
PlayAgainst:
Forest Music-2Life
Halfbridled-Post, slow pace last
Class Above-No adversity yet, PT
Eliminations:
Dixie High
Renaissance Lady
Vino Tinto
Tarlow
Mile:Strong, Spread playing closers
Course playing to closers since aerration.
Pace should be good.
Cal Based assumption, check previous races
1)Irish Warrior-Trainer, like turf distance group in Cal better than middle distance group
2)Touch of the Blues-Peaking, Drysdale
3)Designed for Luck-Can't pitch, most likely pace survivor
LS)Century City-CalBased, last was big
PlayAgainst:
Peace Rules-Don't like race choice, against course style, check Frankel
Special Ring-Dull last
Oasis Dream-Pace bad fit?
Eliminations:
None
Sprint:Weak, Spread
Strong opinion is against Aldebaran and Shake You Down
No key horse to use.
1)Bluesthestandard-Cal based, best out of Ancient Title but race was not strong
2)Captain Squire-Dicey, but good trip, mod pace race
3)Cajun Beat-Last best in race, non-Cal but if price, 3yo?
LS)Private Horde-Blue collar grinder, middle distance possible part if hot pace
PlayAgainst:
Shake You Down-Ins on pace bad trip, Lake in SoCal?
Valid Video-Mth based, bad leg up surface for Cal (0-12)
Aldebaran-Typical Summer Belmont sprint big figs that don't run well in Cal at 6, Check Frankel
Yankee Gentleman-Veered in last, hung. bad sign
Eliminations:
Zavata
Great Notion
Filly&Mare Turf:Moderate
Strong opinions against Tates Creek and Musical Chimes
Likely fav looks tough
Frankel is key on Megahertz, usual poor BC races, CHECK prior entrants
1)Megahertz-15-1 or up, good course, last was against shape and bias, calBased, Check Frankel
2)Islington-Best in race last year, non-Cal based
3)Voodoo Dancer-Ran well on course, comes in on odd pattern, good trainer, non-Cal based
LS)Yesterday-Seems top Euro???
PlayAgainst:
Tates Creek-May get hammered based on course record. Last 2 were poor though, declining form
Musical Chimes-May get hammered off illusion race in weak Yellow Ribbon (timer malfunction), Euro bounce pattern
Eliminations:
Riskaverse
Bien Nichole
Juvenile:Moderate
Strong opinion is against Cuvee, dependant on Asmussen in previous races
Fast pace likely, like top 2
Action This Day likely 2nd, 3rd or 4th KEY
Top 2 likely in Superfecta (only closers)
1)Action This Day-Cal-based, 3Life, 2Route. perfect pattern and against shape last. Slow race, Check Mandella
2)Tiger Hunt-Closed in traffic, Day
3)Chapel Royal-Most likely pace type
LS)Minister Eric-Weak, but Cal-based, others in DelMar proven non-routers. Being talked up, check Mandella
PlayAgainst:
Race For Glory-Inflated Beyer in last, poor post for style and race setup, Check Lukas
Cuvee-Figs too high, surface and venue?, poor post, check Asmussen
Eliminations:
Capitano
Siphonizer
Mambo Train
Consecrate
Turf:Weak
Check closer bias from previous turf races.
Storming Home and Johar likely both in Superfecta if Cal-Based assumption holds
1)Storming Home
2)High Chaparral
3)Johar
LS)The Tin Man
PlayAgainst:
Sulamani
Falbrav
Eliminations:
Toccet
Balto Star
Classic:Moderate, spread on lightly raced
Dicey race but basing plays on fast interior fractions compromising 3 play against horses as well as
schedules up to race and Cal-based, plus check trainers other horses today for all.
Race may be playable on wide spread if Funny Cide is below 8-1 (no chance at all)
1)Hold That Tiger-Best last, check other O'Brien
2)Pleasantly Perfect-Cal-Based, key for ITM
3)Ten Most Wanted-Perfect trips but right style
LS)Volponi-May pop like last year, but feel that was AP
PlayAgainst:
Perfect Drift-Mid race fractions compromise, heavy campaign, no improve, not Cal-based, Trainer??
Medaglia d'Oro-See above
Congaree-See Above
Eliminations:
Funny Cide
In looking at the past 8 years of results, I have come to the conclusion that the best way to play the Breeder's Cup races is to invest in the Superfecta and Pick3 pools.
I don't make a line in the same manner as I do for day to day races at tracks I am intimately familiar with. I just don't have a good enough handle on all the entrants to produce anything even remotely accurate.
Because of the huge influx of "casual" public money I feel there is a larger than usual margin for error. So, for the Breeder's Cup I do things differently.
The night before, rather than make a line, I make a text document to use as a rough guideline for my betting the next day.
Rather than handicap thoroughly, I just categorize a few things:
The race:
Is this a race where I am simply spreading trying to beat a fav or where I have an actual strong opinion.
Th horses:
1) Horses I am making a case for )almost always longshots)
2) Horses I am making a case against (likely to be overbet, not always favs)
3) Horses I eliminate from all money positions (1st - 4th).
I also throw in a bunch of notes to myself on things to check as the day progresses. Such as how the track is playing (vs my assumptions) or how a trainer with multiple entries is doing.
This is a far cry from how I usually handicap and wager on races. But I have not been very successful with the BC using my usual everyday approaches.
I am pasting the draft I used during this years cup. please don't laugh, there are some ludicrous picks in there.
I am just trying to pick some brains in here and find out if anyone else uses a similar approach, or also feels that the BC races involve a COMPLETLY different approach that the methods they usually use. The other problem is that there are so few horses I can eliminate. Out of 91 this year, i could only eliminate 17. So in some cases, I am throwing $500 into a superfecta pool, all on $1 tickets. Not sure if this is a smart way to invest. Certainly not on a day to day basis. But I am not certain it isn't warranted on BC day. Any opinions?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Distaff:Moderate, spread v.s PlayAgainst
Profit scenario is Sightseek not running.
Assuming Cal based fillies have advantage.
Should be moderate pace.
1)Elloluv-2LO, Trainer
2)Got Koko-Against pace in last, good track
3)Lady Tak-Most likely non Cal after fav
LS)Adoration-3LO, ins speed did well Friday
PlayAgainst:
Sightseek-SoSo SA record, Frankel poor BC record
Take Charge Lady-Terrible last
Eliminations:
Buy The Sport
Juvenile Fillies:Weak, Key Hollywood Story
Profit scenario is Halfbridled not running.
1)Hollywood Story-Blinks, CalBased, closed into slow fracs last
2)Society Selection-Closer, 3Life,2Route
3)Victory U. S. A.-Bailey, ok pace in last, CalBased
LS)Zosima-Day, patient may get late part
PlayAgainst:
Forest Music-2Life
Halfbridled-Post, slow pace last
Class Above-No adversity yet, PT
Eliminations:
Dixie High
Renaissance Lady
Vino Tinto
Tarlow
Mile:Strong, Spread playing closers
Course playing to closers since aerration.
Pace should be good.
Cal Based assumption, check previous races
1)Irish Warrior-Trainer, like turf distance group in Cal better than middle distance group
2)Touch of the Blues-Peaking, Drysdale
3)Designed for Luck-Can't pitch, most likely pace survivor
LS)Century City-CalBased, last was big
PlayAgainst:
Peace Rules-Don't like race choice, against course style, check Frankel
Special Ring-Dull last
Oasis Dream-Pace bad fit?
Eliminations:
None
Sprint:Weak, Spread
Strong opinion is against Aldebaran and Shake You Down
No key horse to use.
1)Bluesthestandard-Cal based, best out of Ancient Title but race was not strong
2)Captain Squire-Dicey, but good trip, mod pace race
3)Cajun Beat-Last best in race, non-Cal but if price, 3yo?
LS)Private Horde-Blue collar grinder, middle distance possible part if hot pace
PlayAgainst:
Shake You Down-Ins on pace bad trip, Lake in SoCal?
Valid Video-Mth based, bad leg up surface for Cal (0-12)
Aldebaran-Typical Summer Belmont sprint big figs that don't run well in Cal at 6, Check Frankel
Yankee Gentleman-Veered in last, hung. bad sign
Eliminations:
Zavata
Great Notion
Filly&Mare Turf:Moderate
Strong opinions against Tates Creek and Musical Chimes
Likely fav looks tough
Frankel is key on Megahertz, usual poor BC races, CHECK prior entrants
1)Megahertz-15-1 or up, good course, last was against shape and bias, calBased, Check Frankel
2)Islington-Best in race last year, non-Cal based
3)Voodoo Dancer-Ran well on course, comes in on odd pattern, good trainer, non-Cal based
LS)Yesterday-Seems top Euro???
PlayAgainst:
Tates Creek-May get hammered based on course record. Last 2 were poor though, declining form
Musical Chimes-May get hammered off illusion race in weak Yellow Ribbon (timer malfunction), Euro bounce pattern
Eliminations:
Riskaverse
Bien Nichole
Juvenile:Moderate
Strong opinion is against Cuvee, dependant on Asmussen in previous races
Fast pace likely, like top 2
Action This Day likely 2nd, 3rd or 4th KEY
Top 2 likely in Superfecta (only closers)
1)Action This Day-Cal-based, 3Life, 2Route. perfect pattern and against shape last. Slow race, Check Mandella
2)Tiger Hunt-Closed in traffic, Day
3)Chapel Royal-Most likely pace type
LS)Minister Eric-Weak, but Cal-based, others in DelMar proven non-routers. Being talked up, check Mandella
PlayAgainst:
Race For Glory-Inflated Beyer in last, poor post for style and race setup, Check Lukas
Cuvee-Figs too high, surface and venue?, poor post, check Asmussen
Eliminations:
Capitano
Siphonizer
Mambo Train
Consecrate
Turf:Weak
Check closer bias from previous turf races.
Storming Home and Johar likely both in Superfecta if Cal-Based assumption holds
1)Storming Home
2)High Chaparral
3)Johar
LS)The Tin Man
PlayAgainst:
Sulamani
Falbrav
Eliminations:
Toccet
Balto Star
Classic:Moderate, spread on lightly raced
Dicey race but basing plays on fast interior fractions compromising 3 play against horses as well as
schedules up to race and Cal-based, plus check trainers other horses today for all.
Race may be playable on wide spread if Funny Cide is below 8-1 (no chance at all)
1)Hold That Tiger-Best last, check other O'Brien
2)Pleasantly Perfect-Cal-Based, key for ITM
3)Ten Most Wanted-Perfect trips but right style
LS)Volponi-May pop like last year, but feel that was AP
PlayAgainst:
Perfect Drift-Mid race fractions compromise, heavy campaign, no improve, not Cal-based, Trainer??
Medaglia d'Oro-See above
Congaree-See Above
Eliminations:
Funny Cide