Pell Mell
05-05-2011, 09:54 AM
First of all, this is only my opinion. I rarely state anything concerning horse racing as an absolute fact so just take it for what it's worth.
A common misconception, especially among newbies, is that, a horse that is closing but doesn't quite get there, will get there if it only has a longer race.
Having watched thousands of races during my many years at the track I reached this conclusion. Added distance is no advantage to a closer and in fact may hurt it's chances.
This may sound strange to many but this is my reasoning: Most horses can only sustain a drive for 1/4 to 3/8 of a mile. Therefore, no matter if it's 1 1/16, 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles, they will basically start there move about the same time. Now, as in the derby, where most are going from 1/1/8 to 1 1/4, they will have traveled an extra 1/8 of a mile before they start their move. Their position will usually be determined by the pace of the race. If the pace is rather slow the front runners will usually have enough left to hold off the closers. If the pace is very fast, and the race falls apart up front, it sets it up for a closer but not necessarily for a deep closer but one that has enough speed to keep in touch but is still being reserved.
What happens in many cases is that if the pace is fast the deep closers are forced out of their comfort zone in order to maintain contact with the field. And if they are going a longer distance than they have gone before, they may be out of their comfort zone for a much longer period of time, which in turn, saps them of the energy needed for the late kick.
This is why I think it's a mistake to think that , all he needs is more distance, because he's not actually getting more distance for his run, it's just that he must travel farther before he begins his run, and that's what kills a lot of horses not bred for the classic distances.
A common misconception, especially among newbies, is that, a horse that is closing but doesn't quite get there, will get there if it only has a longer race.
Having watched thousands of races during my many years at the track I reached this conclusion. Added distance is no advantage to a closer and in fact may hurt it's chances.
This may sound strange to many but this is my reasoning: Most horses can only sustain a drive for 1/4 to 3/8 of a mile. Therefore, no matter if it's 1 1/16, 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles, they will basically start there move about the same time. Now, as in the derby, where most are going from 1/1/8 to 1 1/4, they will have traveled an extra 1/8 of a mile before they start their move. Their position will usually be determined by the pace of the race. If the pace is rather slow the front runners will usually have enough left to hold off the closers. If the pace is very fast, and the race falls apart up front, it sets it up for a closer but not necessarily for a deep closer but one that has enough speed to keep in touch but is still being reserved.
What happens in many cases is that if the pace is fast the deep closers are forced out of their comfort zone in order to maintain contact with the field. And if they are going a longer distance than they have gone before, they may be out of their comfort zone for a much longer period of time, which in turn, saps them of the energy needed for the late kick.
This is why I think it's a mistake to think that , all he needs is more distance, because he's not actually getting more distance for his run, it's just that he must travel farther before he begins his run, and that's what kills a lot of horses not bred for the classic distances.