BC post mortem

[Valuist]

So who was the best horses in each of the races? Obviously its open to debate. We all know the best horse doesn't always win so here's how I'd view them:

Distaff: The pace was the key here. Adoration walked on the lead, Elloluv chased in 2nd and was outkicked. Got Koko was the only one to make up ground and finished 3rd. My choice: Got Koko

Juvie Filly: It would be hard to make a case for anyone other than Halfbridled here

Mile: Six Perfections won despite the outer post but I'd like to see a replay to see how much ground she actually lost. Pace wise, Soaring Free did the best of the pace setters in a race loaded with speed. Choice: Probably Six Perfections but I'd like to see a replay again and see if she didn't lose much ground. 2nd best: Soaring Free.

Sprint: When you duel Shake You Down into defeat thru a :43 and change, you've earned your win. Choice: Cajun Beat

F/M Turf: Islington ran a very big final quarter. Choice: Islington

Juvenile: The pace shape was very fast early and slow late. Chapel Royal may have finished 3rd but he impressed me most in this race as the pace survivor. Choice: Chapel Royal.

Turf: The pace wasn't bad here either and I thought Falrav may have moved a bit too soon. While he wasn't in the dead heat, he was beaten 2 heads. Choice: Falbrav

Classic: Again, a solid pace here and Medaglia D'oro was the survivor who gets run down by a deep closer coming out of a barn that won 4 races (can you say SoCal milkshake??). Choice: Medaglia D'oro

[cj]

I agree with all but Falbrav, losing a close decision in a turf race is the norm, no bonus points. He is not a 1 1/2 mile horse as I said before the race. Of course, I thought the same about Johar :D But in Johar's case, I was guessing. Falbrav had shown it in the past!

[Valuist]

My thinking w/Falbrav was that he may have moved too soon. He may have saw High Chapparal coming, but I'm sure neither of those horses saw Johar, who had dead aim on them

I remember there used to be a great negative angle by going against horses coming off big races in the Breeder's Cup. I'm guessing horses like Adoration, Johar and Action this Day will get their come-uppance.

[alysheba88]

The runner up in the Filly and Mare ran the bigger race in my opinion. All the other speed fell away and still she slugged it out to the end, barely losing to the perfect trip winner. An amazing performance. Not sour grapes either. I had Islington.

[Show Me the Wire]

As Valuist said the best horse does not always win and here is my opinion why MDO is the best dirt horse.

My perception of B.C. dirt races. I may be hallucinating, as it seems after the first B.C. dirt race the bias was outside. As long as the horse stayed outside it did not matter if the horse ran on the pace, close to the pace or came from off the pace. As the day progressed the inside seemed to become deeper, especially for the classic.

Watching the monitors and confirming it later while watching the replay shows, I clearly perceived the track having varying uneven moisture placement and texture for each race. The worst track surface actually showed three distinct shades of brown indicating heavy to almost no moisture across the track. Mostly, as the day progressed, the track surface resembled a beach with the inside area (width varied) consisting of loose mounds of sand and the outside consisting of harder smooth sand closer to the water’s edge.

My opinion is the track surface played an important role in the outcome of the dirt races, more important than any other factor. As further proof of my belief Pie N Burger’s win took place on a similar looking track in moisture placement and texture to Adoration’s track surface.

With that said I believe MDO, in the classic, ran the best race and was the best horse

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

I think you're on to something w/the outside condition. It didn't hurt Halfbridled or Cajun Beat, that's for sure. And Pleasantly Perfect closed on the outside. Pie N Burger got the job done but he had to hold off Chinkapin who was gaining on the outside.

[delayjf]

I tend to think that the pace of the races had a lot to do with the outcomes as much as any bias. Adoration got a slow pace and ran away with it.

In the Juv, the front runners all looked like they were going to collapse coming down the lane.

In the Classic, the third and fourth fractions were both run in 24 flat with the final a slow 25 3/5. They went fast middle and slow late.

[delayjf]

Did anyone notice that the 2nd and 3rd fractions in the turf were run in 23 3/5 and 22 4/5? Those are insane fractions for a 1 1/2 mile race. Under those conditions the Tin Man held up well.

[plainolebill]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
My opinion is the track surface played an important role in the outcome of the dirt races, more important than any other factor. As further proof of my belief Pie N Burger’s win took place on a similar looking track in moisture placement and texture to Adoration’s track surface.



As Joe Colville said "Jockies can read the racing form too". Possibly none of the jocks wanted to expend their mounts pressuring a filly that they figured had no chance of winning. (I didn't think so either)

[Valuist]

Bring on Lone Star. I'm kind of looking forward to having it at a different venue. I liked the fact they had it at AP and WO in the past. Some other tracks they could consider could be Kee, BM/GG, Crc and the FG.