Does anyone give Santiva a shot?

[andymays]

I started looking at the PP's a little while ago but Santiva is 1-1 at Churchill and had trouble in his last couple. I haven't landed yet but I'm going to try to make a case for this longshot over the next couple of days.

[fmhealth]

Andy, bad news for you. I like Santiva as well. Three reasons set him up:

1- Lost his last. A positive sign.

2- Last race was over a "synth" surface.

3- Has trained at Palm Meadows.

I believe he's the only entry that satisfies this magical formula that I've concocted. Brilliant Speed is only a desperate nose victory away from also being included.

So I'll box both of these hard-chargers in a perfecta & toss a win bet along as well. I'm trying my best to break into very small pieces my record of 52 consecutive Derby losers. This could be the year!!!

[Plain Steve]

I started looking at the PP's a littlewhile ago but Santiva is 1-1 at Churchill and had trouble in his last couple. Ihaven't landed yet but I'm going to try to make a case for this longshot overthe next couple of days.

Even money? Really?



Andy, bad news for you. I like Santiva aswell. Three reasons set him up:

1- Lost his last. A positive sign.
2- Last race was over a "synth" surface.
3- Has trained at Palm Meadows.

I believe he's the only entry that satisfies this magicalformula that I've concocted. Brilliant Speed is only a desperate nose victoryaway from also being included.

So I'll box both of these hard-chargers in a perfecta &toss a win bet along as well. I'm trying my best to break into very smallpieces my record of 52 consecutive Derby losers. This could be theyear!!!

Synthetic surface??
Palm Meadows??

[sam i am]

I also have a way of looking for long shots at the derby...he must have lost his last race, if he wins that last race is he one of favorites.
2 horses this year
Santiva
Soldat

[OFFandRUNNING10]

[QUOTE=Plain Steve]

Even money? Really?


I believe he is not referring to odds rather referring to starts and wins at churchill...1-start / 1-win

[Plain Steve]

[QUOTE=Plain Steve]

Even money? Really?


I believe he is not referring to odds rather referring to starts and wins at churchill...1-start / 1-win

My bad, thanks

[precocity]

going big across the Bord on him? throw out the last race...$

[andymays]

The odds are big enough to take a shot on the basis that he's improving and going to improve further in the Derby even though that may or may not be true. If he was 10-1 or less I wouldn't bet him.

[rastajenk]

Why was he off for two months from Feb to April?

What is in there that says he's ready to step it up and deliver an effort that's needed to win, when he hasn't come close to ever doing so? :confused: Maybe the full field of 20 is that weak, but I sure hope not.

[andymays]

Why was he off for two months from Feb to April?

What is in there that says he's ready to step it up and deliver an effort that's needed to win, when he hasn't come close to ever doing so? :confused: Maybe the full field of 20 is that weak, but I sure hope not.

They probably thought that the Keenland race was his best shot of all the preps to pick up a nice check. The three trainer thing already is a little wierd and maybe that has something to do with the owner. I see that he has had trouble in 4 out of six starts and maybe he's the kind of horse that finds trouble and there is no easier race to find trouble than the Derby. The post time odds will be attractive enough to play him to win or at least use him in the Tri's and Supers. I haven't landed on playing him to win yet but I'm gonna use him in the exotics because of the price.

[toussaud]

what has this horse ever done outside of beating an overrated astrology as a 2YO

[andymays]

what has this horse ever done outside of beating an overrated astrology as a 2YO

He has excuses in his last two and looks to me like he has a lot of upside whereas a horse like Mucho Macho Man at 12-1 seems to have no upside. He may have needed the Fairgrounds race but he ran well anyway despite going wide. In the next one he got buried as the favorite. He's won a grade 2 at Churchill as a 2yo and best of all he will be at least 30-1 in my opinion.

This field looks super weak to me.

[wisconsin]

Hate to say it, but anything can happen Saturday. The favorites are suspect. Starvina has had trouble in the 2011 starts. As for the comment of the layoff, most of these have only 2 starts this year.....

[andymays]

In General, Don't Generalize About Breeding in the 2011 Kentucky Derby - NYTimes.com

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/in-general-dont-generalize-about-breeding/

Excerpt:

Santiva is definitely a Smarten, who comes from a long line of Nearco studs, and bred to gallop two miles. He is another that handles the turf and the longer the better.

[duckhunter3]

In my view, this horse definitely has a chance. someone asked what had he ever done in his career? Well, he has done one thing NO OTHER HORSE IN THIS DERBY FIELD has done. He has won a GRADED STAKES RACE AT CD. There are a few MSW CD winners in the field but not GRADED STAKES WINNER.

His last race is definitely excusable - artificial turf and trouble

And I am not going to go through it all now and spill the beans, but videos of his races, if watched by an experienced eye, will reveal some interesting things about his losses.

Not saying to put all your eggs in his basket. But he MUST be considered in the mix (win as well as exotics).

Just my opinion.
duck

[TommyCh]

Hate to say it, but anything can happen Saturday. The favorites are suspect. Starvina has had trouble in the 2011 starts. As for the comment of the layoff, most of these have only 2 starts this year.....

with the race so wide open, do you start looking at the jocks? Such as Borel?

[Wiley]

In my view, this horse definitely has a chance. someone asked what had he ever done in his career? Well, he has done one thing NO OTHER HORSE IN THIS DERBY FIELD has done. He has won a GRADED STAKES RACE AT CD. There are a few MSW CD winners in the field but not GRADED STAKES WINNER.

Uncle Mo has also won a graded stakes at CD, guess there is a chance he scratches though.

Super Saver won last year with a win in the same race as a two year old. Street Sense won a graded at CD and won. Probably a good angle, know CD is a quirky track so it is good to see when a horse has ran on it and won.

The race spacing is weird with this colt. I liked his Risen Star and thought he would move forward off it but they lay him up till the Blue Grass, that race looked like a mess for him, as far as I can see on the replay, it looks like Leparourx had this colt in a stranglehold for most of the race and then down the lane he had no where to go. It would have been nice to see if he could quicken at the end but he never found room to run so who knows if he got anything out of the race.

His works look ok coming up to the race but he comes in with three weeks from his last race after a much longer spacing prior. Also funny this colt won the Ky Jockey Club as a maiden and still his only win, Plecther and McPeek must have thought he was pretty good entering in stakes as a maiden.

I will probably use in exotics but not sure if he is fast enough to win the thing though it does look like a pretty weak field so I can see making a case for him.

[fmhealth]

Steve, my "Logic" is as follows. As you know, many times horses improve going "Synth" to dirt. Santiva did exactly that last year over the same two tracks. Also, I believe (could easily be mistaken), that 3 out of the past five Derby winners trained at Palm Meadows.

So, mixing all this together in some type of brew. Out pops Santiva. Since he also lost his last & could be a very square price. I'll risk a few bucks on his nose.

Best of luck trying to decipher this "Rubic's Cube" of 'capping.