Pace 101 and the Derby

[maddog42]

This research started out as a project to vindicate my PPF pars and turned into something different. The Pars weren't all that good at predicting Derby Winners, but were pretty good at getting the Place Horse. The Pars were 3 of 6 at getting the place horse in the top 2, but only 1 of 6 at getting the winner in the top 2. What surprised me was the consistency of competing well against a face pace in narrowing the winner to often only 3 horses. 5 of the last 6 Derby winners competed well against a fast pace. Something akin to the so called fulcrum horse has been winning derbys for 5 of the last 6 years. I will do a post for each of the last 6 Derbys. Now I know that for many of you this will be obvious stuff, but you may be surprised at how consistent this has worked lately.

[maddog42]

The definition I used was Up close or 2nd in a race with fast Pace to the second call. The PPF number was calculated using my PPF Pars, specifically a percentage of par where lowest is best.
Super Saver 70.75
Ice Box 70.76
Devil may Care 70.76
Dublin 70.67

Sidney's Candy 907
Lookin at Lucky 922
Awesome Act 929
Nobles Promise 923

The PPF pars whiffed on this one, but the pace match-up got this one pretty good. I actually used the 12 lowest odds horses from the final tote and used the best line of the last 3 around 2 turns on Dirt. Ice box was the place horse.

[maddog42]

To get this one, you have to have Mine That Bird as a contender. I did not, but I would argue that the fast Pace she ran against should have qualified him. I know: 2020 Hindsight, but this Horse actually led in the stretch against this fast
pace, before fading.

Mine That Bird 70.12
Dunkirk 70.66
Papa Clem 71.15
Summer Bird 71.15
Chocolate Candy 71.64

Pioneer of the Nile 937
Friesan 937
Papa Clem 940
Musket Man 941
Summer Bird 942

PPF pars nails the Place horse. That $2000 exacta would have been nice. But I admit this is just dreaming. Again I threw in MTB and used the 12 low odds horses.

[maddog42]

Big Brown 69.87
Gayego 71.09
Cool Coal Man 70.77
Denis of Cork 70.83
Colonel John 70.44

Eight Belles 918
Pyro 909
Z Fortune 918
Visionaire 921
Recapture the Glory 926

Eight Belles breaks the tie with Z fortune because of faster Pace. Eight Belles was the Place horse.

[maddog42]

Doing well against a fast pace didn't work here, but the PPf Par did.

Circular Quay 70.88
Nobiz like Shobiz 69.89
Any Given Saturday 70.9
Sam P. 70.34
Great Hunter 70.34
Street Sense 71.74

Any Given Saturday 936
Nobiz Like Shobiz 944
Street Sense 936
Curlin 953
Liquidity 939

Place Horse was Hard Spun. I didn't have a clue.

[maddog42]

PPF Par gets the place horse. Very Muddled competitive Pace scenarios.

Barbaro 70.33
Brother Derek 70.31
Bob and John 70.39
Sinister Minister 69.94
AP Warrior 70.39

Bluegrass Cat 938
Sweetnorthern Saint 941
Lawyer Ron 936
Brother Derek 946

Bluegrass Cat was place horse. I counted this a win, but probably shouldn't.
Close 2nd call times made this tough race to get the winner. Too bad about Barbaro, what a beautiful horse.

[maddog42]

Giacomo 70.15
Giacomo 69.74
Bellamy Road 69.84
Buzzards Bay 69.96
High Fly 69.92

Sun King 917
Greeleys Galaxy 933
Afleet Alex 917
Flower Alley 946

PPF pars didn't hit anything, but Pace Match-up did. Giacomo was beaten 6.5 in the 69.74 but got second, had a 70.15 in Breeders Cup.

[Sinner369]

Maddog.........how about this year's derby................???

Who is the winner or at least the Place horse?

2011 is such a wide open race, I'm willing to listen to any reasonable theory!

[TexasDolly]

Take a second and describe what the numbers are for me please.
Thank you,
TD

[Stillriledup]

Yeah, what's this mean in english! :jump:

[maddog42]

Maddog.........how about this year's derby................???

Who is the winner or at least the Place horse?

2011 is such a wide open race, I'm willing to listen to any reasonable theory!

I will give the picks for this years Derby by tomorrow night. I will tell you this:
Uncle Mo (if healthy ran the biggest PPF number by far) and is one of my picks for place horse. His health is up for debate. Another thread says he might not even run.

[maddog42]

Take a second and describe what the numbers are for me please.
Thank you,
TD

The PPF numbers are from Pizzolla's book Handicapping Magic. I compute them a little different and I have made Pars for every major track in North America. I compare that 3rd Fraction against the Pars that I have made and come up with a percentage of Par. Pioneer of the Nile ran 93.7 % of par for that distance and track, hence the 937. I have explained this in detail in another thread back in January. Let me make a confession here. I did not make an entirely new set of Pars for each track for every year the Derby was run. So some of these Pars are Suspect. I did make new pars for Keeneland and Santa Anita whose surfaces have changed drastically. SA has went from Dirt to plastic and back to dirt this year. I should have made new pars for Turfway, but I did not. I do not have a vast Database of races like CJ and many others on PA. I make them using Equibase results Charts. I did not even have PP"s for all the Derby's. I went back for every horse from every Derby for the past 6 years ( I wanted to do ten, but ran out of time ).

The 70.12 that I have beside Mine that Bird is the second call time that MTB
ran against in that race at Sunland. He still finished 3.25 lengths from the winner at the finish, so that qualified him as a true Contender as far as I was concerned. Very Simple. Dunkirk ran against a 70.66 and finished up close, so he was a contender. Thats why I called this Pace 101. I was surprised that this simple second call elimination method worked so well in the Derby, and it probably won't work this year, but what the Hell. Most of this is right out of the original match-up manual by Jim Bradshaw and Handicapping Magic by Pizzolla. Jim would shoot me for oversimplifying his Match-up process, but we do what we can.
This method had Street Sense running well against the 6th fastest pace, which is still not too shabby.

It took me over 16 hours of work to handicap these 6 Derbys in this manner using results charts and a slow computer. But it was fun.

[maddog42]

I will give the picks for this years Derby by tomorrow night. I will tell you this:
Uncle Mo (if healthy ran the biggest PPF number by far) and is one of my picks for place horse. His health is up for debate. Another thread says he might not even run.

Just went back over the last 20 years of Derby winners. 17 of 20 winners have competed well against a second call of 70.25 or less in there last 3 races previous to the Derby. This eliminates a bunch of horses from win consideration but not from money consideration.
Throw outs:
Brilliant Speed
Stay Thirsty
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top ( tough throwout, against tough pace of 68.8 2 back)
Pants on Fire
Derby Kitten
Twinspired
Santiva
Mucho Macho Man (another tough throwout)
Animal Kingdom
Soldat
Uncle Mo (elimination From Win Only)
Watch Me Go
Whew!!!
That was tough to throw out a horse, I was so high on in Uncle Mo. How many handicappers will publicly throw-out a horse that almost everybody has in their top two. He has had too many chances. If he runs back to that Grade 1 win in the Champagne, he beats these guys, but I doubt it.

There have been 3 horses that have not competed well against a tough
pace: 71.25 or less and still won the Derby in the last 20 years. They are
Street Sense
War Emblem
Sea Hero
Now I am throwing out 2 horses that qualify, but I don't think can win:
Nehro
Archarcharch

That leaves 5 horses
Twice the Appeal
Dialed In
Shackleford
Master of Hounds
Midnite Interlude
Who knows what this Hounds horse will do on dirt? I'll throw out a couple more later tonite.

[maddog42]

Maddog.........how about this year's derby................???

Who is the winner or at least the Place horse?

2011 is such a wide open race, I'm willing to listen to any reasonable theory!
I like Pants on Fire or Uncle Mo to place.
I like Dialed In or Twice the Appeal to win.

[maddog42]

Just went back over the last 20 years of Derby winners. 17 of 20 winners have competed well against a second call of 70.25 or less in there last 3 races previous to the Derby. This eliminates a bunch of horses from win consideration but not from money consideration.
Throw outs:
Brilliant Speed
Stay Thirsty
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top ( tough throwout, against tough pace of 68.8 2 back)
Pants on Fire
Derby Kitten
Twinspired
Santiva
Mucho Macho Man (another tough throwout)
Animal Kingdom
Soldat
Uncle Mo (elimination From Win Only)
Watch Me Go
Whew!!!
That was tough to throw out a horse, I was so high on in Uncle Mo. How many handicappers will publicly throw-out a horse that almost everybody has in their top two. He has had too many chances. If he runs back to that Grade 1 win in the Champagne, he beats these guys, but I doubt it.

There have been 3 horses that have not competed well against a tough
pace: 71.25 or less and still won the Derby in the last 20 years. They are
Street Sense
War Emblem
Sea Hero
Now I am throwing out 2 horses that qualify, but I don't think can win:
Nehro
Archarcharch

That leaves 5 horses
Twice the Appeal
Dialed In
Shackleford
Master of Hounds
Midnite Interlude
Who knows what this Hounds horse will do on dirt? I'll throw out a couple more later tonite.

I may have hastily thrown out Nehro and Archarcharch. One throw-out that should have been made before these is Master of Hounds. So to strictly to apply and get this 85% stat, we would have narrowed the field to 6:
Nehro
Archarcharch
Twice the Appeal
Dialed In
Shackleford
Midnite Interlude
I still am torn about Mo.
I feel very certain the winner will come from these 7 horses.

[TexasDolly]

Just a note to say thank you for the info. Hope
your Fri. and Sat picks work out well for you.
TD

[maddog42]

I like Pants on Fire or Uncle Mo to place.
I like Dialed In or Twice the Appeal to win.
Let me update a substitute horse for Mo: My superduper longshot place horse is
Watch Me Go. Longshot show horse is Derby Kitten.

[maddog42]

This research started out as a project to vindicate my PPF pars and turned into something different. The Pars weren't all that good at predicting Derby Winners, but were pretty good at getting the Place Horse. The Pars were 3 of 6 at getting the place horse in the top 2, but only 1 of 6 at getting the winner in the top 2. What surprised me was the consistency of competing well against a face pace in narrowing the winner to often only 3 horses. 5 of the last 6 Derby winners competed well against a fast pace. Something akin to the so called fulcrum horse has been winning derbys for 5 of the last 6 years. I will do a post for each of the last 6 Derbys. Now I know that for many of you this will be obvious stuff, but you may be surprised at how consistent this has worked lately.

In my neverending scheming ,What-ifing and red boarding ,I did locate a couple ways you might have had the Derby winner. I went to pacefigures.com and was looking at 4f pace ratings in the Derby Preps. Animal Kingdom had the #1 rating at 146. Now I know I said go by the 6f pace call in various Threads, but the 4f call is often predictive of an early pace advantage, particularly of the Longshot variety.
Now I know about a dozen (at least) of you yahoos use CJ's figs, did I miss the thread on this, or were you just being close-lipped about this? My other method will have to wait until I can verify it.
Way to go CJ!!!

[cj]

I have it from a good source CJ didn't have the horse!

This year is the first I've used the 4f call. Previously, I only did one pace call and it was 6f. Beginning with 2011, I added a second pace call and matched them to the "official" 1st and 2nd call. To be clear, Animal Kingdom had the 2nd fastest. The first three numbers are the race figures, the second three the horse figures.

The figures for all the Derby back to 2003 can be found on my site (http://www.pacefigures.com) under the "Archives" tab. The previous two years, the top overall early speed rating won, Super Saver and Mine That Bird, even though they didn't necessarily run like a speed horses.

Just going by the fastest 1st Pace Call, results are pretty good the last few years. I don't know if it is a trend or a fluke to be honest:

4f:
2011:
Decisive Moment, 145
Animal Kingdom, 134
Twice The Appeal, 129

6f:
2010:
Line of David, 110
Super Saver, 104
Devil May Care, 104

2009:
Mine That Bird, 117
Pioneerof the Nile, 108
Papa Clem, 103

2008:
Tale of Ekati, 117
Big Brown, 116
Gayego, 114

But, from 2003-07, the winner was never found in the top 3.

[Valuist]

Did I read earlier in the thread that Street Sense came out of a fast paced prep? The 2007 Blue Grass was a total joke; probably the slowest paced Grade 1 dirt race I have seen in my life.

[maddog42]

I have it from a good source CJ didn't have the horse!

This year is the first I've used the 4f call. Previously, I only did one pace call and it was 6f. Beginning with 2011, I added a second pace call and matched them to the "official" 1st and 2nd call. To be clear, Animal Kingdom had the 2nd fastest. The first three numbers are the race figures, the second three the horse figures.

The figures for all the Derby back to 2003 can be found on my site (http://www.pacefigures.com/) under the "Archives" tab. The previous two years, the top overall early speed rating won, Super Saver and Mine That Bird, even though they didn't necessarily run like a speed horses.

Just going by the fastest 1st Pace Call, results are pretty good the last few years. I don't know if it is a trend or a fluke to be honest:

4f:
2011:
Decisive Moment, 145
Animal Kingdom, 134
Twice The Appeal, 129

6f:
2010:
Line of David, 110
Super Saver, 104
Devil May Care, 104

2009:
Mine That Bird, 117
Pioneerof the Nile, 108
Papa Clem, 103

2008:
Tale of Ekati, 117
Big Brown, 116
Gayego, 114

But, from 2003-07, the winner was never found in the top 3.

Thanks CJ. You answered my question before I asked it.

[maddog42]

Did I read earlier in the thread that Street Sense came out of a fast paced prep? The 2007 Blue Grass was a total joke; probably the slowest paced Grade 1 dirt race I have seen in my life.


How about waiting a year for a reply? Sorry. No. Street Sense is one of the Horses that didn't run a sub 71 second prep race and still won the Derby. He did have a very nice Beyer of 108 going for him.


I was not willing to give up on last years research on the Derby and pace. So I went back and shamelessly back fitted and adjusted the criteria for Derby Contenders. You still had to have run a qualifying race somewhere, sometime with a 6f pace of less than 71 seconds. The horses that didn't; like War Emblem had MONSTER Beyers, or at least a very good Beyer of at least 105. This cuts the field in half or more always. It worked this year for me, and I have a new pair of sneakers to prove it(I don't wear boots like Jim Bradshaw). Even Animal Kingdom from last year had run a against a 70.94 on the grass. Animal Kingdom may not be a great horse, but I imagine he could run in the snow or on the moon.
I'll Have Another had a Pace Advantage this year at least in RAW Pace times. I know some of you will say that any Horse can run against a 70 second 6f time at Santa Anita, but I don't think it matters much. the horse needs the experience of competing and doing well against that pace.
My problem this year was whether I was going to let that post 19 get me off of IHA. I waffled and went back and forth and finally hooked him up with Bode, DNB and Union Rags.
Bodemeister in my opinion ran an absolutely crazy good race on the front end. Check it out, these horses ran against a sub 70 second 6f and did well:

Take Charge Indy (barely, 70.95 on gd track)
Union Rags (70.37 at belmont)
Bodemeister (70.52 at SA)
I did not use Trinniberg, no route 8f or longer race.
Daddy Nose Best (70.83 at Sunland)
Alpha does not qualify (beaten 5.25 lengths) at 70.37
Hansen (70.21 on sloppy track) Very iffy and beaten by 5
El Padrino (70.95 on gd track) barely
IHA ( 70.52 at SA )
Down to 7 horses now.
I really didn't like the Horses that did it on a good track. Toss 'em.
I was using Equibase and Bris. Which of these horses had run against that fast pace and still get a 100 Equibase rating?
Only 2 :
I'll Have Another
Bodemeister.

[Bullet Plane]

Maddog, Question:


Did you make adjustments for the pace call on War Emblem for your PPF?

Sportsman Park was a 7/8 oval.

Might have thrown your figures off...not sure.

[maddog42]

Maddog, Question:


Did you make adjustments for the pace call on War Emblem for your PPF?

Sportsman Park was a 7/8 oval.

Might have thrown your figures off...not sure.

Not really. How many horses can run 6f on a 7/8 type track around 2 turns in less than 71 seconds? I don't know of any. Maybe some sprinter can. Cj explained some where that the War Emblem Pace at Sportsmans was pretty hot.
I didn't try to quantify it. The Hot Pace Derby Prep theory of mine seems to work about 80%+. I have just adopted some smart peoples theories to my own evil purposes.

[Bullet Plane]

Not really. How many horses can run 6f on a 7/8 type track around 2 turns in less than 71 seconds? I don't know of any. Maybe some sprinter can. Cj explained some where that the War Emblem Pace at Sportsmans was pretty hot.
I didn't try to quantify it. The Hot Pace Derby Prep theory of mine seems to work about 80%+. I have just adopted some smart peoples theories to my own evil purposes.

His recent explanation of that is what led to my question. I remember handicapping that race, coming up with a big PPF for that horse..and thinking I had a Derby bomb. Then I looked at the apparently slow pace and discounted the effort.

Anyway, nice work.

[maddog42]

His recent explanation of that is what led to my question. I remember handicapping that race, coming up with a big PPF for that horse..and thinking I had a Derby bomb. Then I looked at the apparently slow pace and discounted the effort.

Anyway, nice work.
Bullet Plane, I just spent a year of my life working on PPF Pars, compounding various 3rd fraction ratings and all sorts of weird esoteric 3rd fraction hybrids.
I tried to make them work on past Derby races and they didn't do well. They are a very specialized tool that work on certain tracks or certain pace match-ups.
I go with what works. It was a crazy ego thing anyway: the more people said I was crazy, the more I tried to prove them wrong.
Speed rules in North American dirt racing, but there are exceptions....

[Capper Al]

How about waiting a year for a reply? Sorry. No. Street Sense is one of the Horses that didn't run a sub 71 second prep race and still won the Derby. He did have a very nice Beyer of 108 going for him.


I was not willing to give up on last years research on the Derby and pace. So I went back and shamelessly back fitted and adjusted the criteria for Derby Contenders. You still had to have run a qualifying race somewhere, sometime with a 6f pace of less than 71 seconds. The horses that didn't; like War Emblem had MONSTER Beyers, or at least a very good Beyer of at least 105. This cuts the field in half or more always. It worked this year for me, and I have a new pair of sneakers to prove it(I don't wear boots like Jim Bradshaw). Even Animal Kingdom from last year had run a against a 70.94 on the grass. Animal Kingdom may not be a great horse, but I imagine he could run in the snow or on the moon.
I'll Have Another had a Pace Advantage this year at least in RAW Pace times. I know some of you will say that any Horse can run against a 70 second 6f time at Santa Anita, but I don't think it matters much. the horse needs the experience of competing and doing well against that pace.
My problem this year was whether I was going to let that post 19 get me off of IHA. I waffled and went back and forth and finally hooked him up with Bode, DNB and Union Rags.
Bodemeister in my opinion ran an absolutely crazy good race on the front end. Check it out, these horses ran against a sub 70 second 6f and did well:

Take Charge Indy (barely, 70.95 on gd track)
Union Rags (70.37 at belmont)
Bodemeister (70.52 at SA)
I did not use Trinniberg, no route 8f or longer race.
Daddy Nose Best (70.83 at Sunland)
Alpha does not qualify (beaten 5.25 lengths) at 70.37
Hansen (70.21 on sloppy track) Very iffy and beaten by 5
El Padrino (70.95 on gd track) barely
IHA ( 70.52 at SA )
Down to 7 horses now.
I really didn't like the Horses that did it on a good track. Toss 'em.
I was using Equibase and Bris. Which of these horses had run against that fast pace and still get a 100 Equibase rating?
Only 2 :
I'll Have Another
Bodemeister.

Good stuff

[BeatTheChalk]

Good work Mad one :) Now if I can take my Sartin . My later Pizzola..
My Tom Hambleton and Brohamer and put them altogether ......and now
with my BRIS ...I may be able to get back to you in a year or so :lol:
:bang: :cool:

[maddog42]

How about waiting a year for a reply? Sorry. No. Street Sense is one of the Horses that didn't run a sub 71 second prep race and still won the Derby. He did have a very nice Beyer of 108 going for him.


I was not willing to give up on last years research on the Derby and pace. So I went back and shamelessly back fitted and adjusted the criteria for Derby Contenders. You still had to have run a qualifying race somewhere, sometime with a 6f pace of less than 71 seconds. The horses that didn't; like War Emblem had MONSTER Beyers, or at least a very good Beyer of at least 105. This cuts the field in half or more always. It worked this year for me, and I have a new pair of sneakers to prove it(I don't wear boots like Jim Bradshaw). Even Animal Kingdom from last year had run a against a 70.94 on the grass. Animal Kingdom may not be a great horse, but I imagine he could run in the snow or on the moon.
I'll Have Another had a Pace Advantage this year at least in RAW Pace times. I know some of you will say that any Horse can run against a 70 second 6f time at Santa Anita, but I don't think it matters much. the horse needs the experience of competing and doing well against that pace.
My problem this year was whether I was going to let that post 19 get me off of IHA. I waffled and went back and forth and finally hooked him up with Bode, DNB and Union Rags.
Bodemeister in my opinion ran an absolutely crazy good race on the front end. Check it out, these horses ran against a sub 70 second 6f and did well:

Take Charge Indy (barely, 70.95 on gd track)
Union Rags (70.37 at belmont)
Bodemeister (70.52 at SA)
I did not use Trinniberg, no route 8f or longer race.
Daddy Nose Best (70.83 at Sunland)
Alpha does not qualify (beaten 5.25 lengths) at 70.37
Hansen (70.21 on sloppy track) Very iffy and beaten by 5
El Padrino (70.95 on gd track) barely
IHA ( 70.52 at SA )
Down to 7 horses now.
I really didn't like the Horses that did it on a good track. Toss 'em.
I was using Equibase and Bris. Which of these horses had run against that fast pace and still get a 100 Equibase rating?
Only 2 :
I'll Have Another
Bodemeister.

Good stuff
An error in the above post. I used the Bris 100 as a benchmark and not Equibase.