Why not Archarcharch as the fav?

[Smarty Cide]

I wouldnt be shocked if Archarcharch is the fav by race time.

He won the Arkansas Derby with a 98 beyer.

Coming into the derby off the highest beyer.

Has improved for 3 straight races.

Great Tomlinson and Dosage numbers.

He draws a good post and he is the fav id say.



What am I missing?

[MNslappy]

3rd choice is my guess, behind Uncle Mo and Dialed In.

[Dahoss9698]

Dialed In or Uncle Mo is going to be the favorite.

If one more person says they like Archarcharch, I'm ripping up my future ticket on him. He's carrying the weight of every meassage board I have seen this week.

[Rise Over Run]

I really like ArchArchArch here. :lol: :lol:

[Dahoss9698]

Well played...

[OFFandRUNNING10]

I wouldnt be shocked if Archarcharch is the fav by race time.

He won the Arkansas Derby with a 98 beyer.

Coming into the derby off the highest beyer.

Has improved for 3 straight races.

Great Tomlinson and Dosage numbers.

He draws a good post and he is the fav id say.



What am I missing?

SSHHHH dont blow it!

[Some_One]

Very real chance Arch3 goes off fav

[Smarty Cide]

Im betting this horse heavy. Hopefully im not drinking salad dressing for dinner next week.

[Midnight Cruiser]

I wouldnt be shocked if Archarcharch is the fav by race time.

He won the Arkansas Derby with a 98 beyer.

Coming into the derby off the highest beyer.

Has improved for 3 straight races.

Great Tomlinson and Dosage numbers.

He draws a good post and he is the fav id say.



What am I missing?


I think he will be under 10-1 for sure.

[salty]

.......Because Repole claims that they will make sure that UNcle Moe is the favorite.

[BMustang]

If you like Archx3, you should LOVE Nehro.

[nijinski]

He hasn't put back to back wins together .

[Stillriledup]

The whole world loves Arch. There are rumors that Dialed in and Uncle Mo 'arent right', which leaves Arch as the next of kin. Arch is training well, yada yada yada.

He's the worlds 'consensus' pick. Probably won't be the favorite, but stranger things have happened.

[Smarty Cide]

i hope he isnt the fav. how often does the fav win? archarcharch sure aint no big brown.

i just dont see anyone else that can win if arch gets a good post and a good trip. big IF though

[OTM Al]

If you like Archx3, you should LOVE Nehro.

Yeah, to finish 2nd or 3rd. Seems to be his way. He has the makings of the best exacta horse since Dynever.

[Pell Mell]

If you like Archx3, you should LOVE Nehro.

I know, because he was closing and just needs more ground. I'd like to have a buck for every time that's been said. :ThmbDown:

[BombsAway Bob]

Im betting this horse heavy. Hopefully im not drinking salad dressing for dinner next week.
i'd pick up a fresh head of Lettuce Friday, just in case...

[Smarty Cide]

i'd pick up a fresh head of Lettuce Friday, just in case...

good call

[Pell Mell]

I don't mean to be brash but it seems to me that there are an awful lot of handicappers that just don't know how to read a race.
IMO the 2 best prep races of all the preps was the race that Premier Pegasus ran against The Factor in the St. Vincent and the race AAA ran against The Factor in the Rebel.
PP came out of his race and blew them away in his next start and would probably be the chalk come Sat. An awful lot of cappers were on to Sway Away because he was closing and needed more distance, or so they thought.
AAA came out of his race against The Factor, a race that I think was much better for The Factor than the St. Vincent race, and takes the AK Derby. I feel the AK Derby was an easier race for AAA than the Rebel which leaves him with a better race to run back to. Also, as I have mentioned in the past, AAA's pedigree is so much like Blame's it's almost a twin. Blame just got better and better the farther he went, and don't forget, he held off Zenyatta. It looks to me that AAA is farther along at this point then Blame was and I also think he's being handled better.
This is just my opinion and it may come back to bite me in the ass but if you have a conviction you shouldn't be afraid to express it. Anybody, like most of the public handicappers, can beat around the bush and play it safe. ;)

[Dahoss9698]

The message board mush struck already. Archarcharch needs to be miles best to win from the rail.

At least I don't have to go try and find my ripped up future ticket in the garbage now.

[hogan6]

My pick AAA is now a throwout. If not convinced have a gander at LAL's trip last year.

[Smarty Cide]

well its a shitty post but he dont have the greatest horses next to him. If he could get out of the gate quickly and hope borel dips to the rail he could get out of that tight spot and get a decent trip.

[GaryG]

Arch and Nehro were both taking advantage of closer friendly conditions at OP.

[Smarty Cide]

there have been horses that have broken well from the #1 see the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHFnUm64p_8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTkjiEZEPdE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqdItLlti6c

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iB9f3zIjHj4


sure lookin at lucky had bad luck last year and got pinched but that doesent means every horse has a horrible trip. most of those other horses in the 1 just werent any good.

[Rackon]

LAL was more than pretty good, but he had NO luck, got mugged at the start and mauled in the cavalry charge first time past the stands as a result, a bad trip all way around.

Arch3 strikes me as a tougher, maybe slightly bigger, physical speciman than LAL. I don't like the one hole for him as it makes his job tougher than it already is, but a lot depends on how the horses next to him break and how the race unfolds. If he gets a decent jump away from the gate Court can just follow Calvin ;-).

Seriously, if he can avoid losing momentum, and find a decent spot without having to take back (be it inside or wide) he might still get to run a good race. He needs luck, but the AD showed me he can be tough in tight quarters.

[keithw84]

Post position 1 concerns me, but Archarcharch has had to deal with traffic before. I think he is capable of overcoming the rail... I'm just not as confident as I'd be if he were starting more to the outside.