Derby Pace

[PhantomOnTour]

Let's sift through the main E and E/P types. After all, it's these guys that Nehro, Dialed In, Toby and others are counting on to set the table. Four or five major pace players, depending on how you see Uncle Mo....Comma To The Top, Shackleford, Macho Man, Pants On Fire, and maybe Mo.

Shackleford (E)-believe he is a committed E unless PVal and Comma outgun him...duel is likely. Threw down a huge pace effort in the FlaDby and ran 2nd after a faltering 23+ length defeat in the FOY. That effort looks like the result of two things...a failed attempt to rate this colt and a 19 day return off his last race (he bounced!). They let him roll in the FlaDby and he ran 'em all off their feet, while going pretty damn fast, & nearly held Dialed In at the line. Gets 34 days of rest for this one...working well...not a win contender imo but think he can take them a long way. Major hang up is that Castanon is up and he will have to out-tactic PVal and CTTT should they hook up. Hate PVal all you want, but I'd rather him that Castanon.

Comma To The Top (E)-he and the Shack will lay down the splits, and despite the jock advantage being here, I think Comma wilts first. In his two dirt starts he's tracked a brutal pace & faded, and set a moderate pace & run 2nd. This pace will be fast to brutally fast and I think this son of Bwana Charlie chucks by the 1/4 pole.

Mucho Macho Man (P)-proven P type will sit the trip here, assuming all goes well into the first turn. MMM is an even runner that doesn't have a big race breaking move, and that style will serve him well sitting behind the suspect speed. The LaDby is turning out to be an good race form wise with Nehro and Machen returning to run well. MMM hade a wide trip, lost a shoe, and got beaten by 3/4 length. Not sure 10f is up his alley, but I think he hits the lead at some point past the 1/4 pole...believe in Rajiv!

Pants On Fire (P)-an E type last year, this guy is getting the P logo from me in this match up. No way Rosie is gonna ding dong up front with Shack and CTTT. Think he got the dream trip in the LaDby and was looking to be beaten by someone in the lane, but held on. Nehro needed two more jumps. Pace figs put him in the hunt, but his overall final figs leave him a cut below. MMM gets by him today.

Uncle Mo (E/P)-the wild card dontcha' know. If he comes to run, he too will sit a nice stalking trip and should be able to put away all the above pace players...but I ain't betting on it. Gets bumped around a bit, stalks, chucks it...retires???

My picture at the 1/4 pole is MMM and the Shack vying for the lead...now who's gonna catch 'em?

EDIT: i know i am omitting Santiva and Soldat. If they try to attend the expected pace i think they wilt early....Midnite Interlude is another who was left out. Did so because he didn't debut until late Jan and this whole scene is likely to fry his dials. I will watch him closely

[Spiderman]

Agree with most of your pace scenario. CTTT will definitely be winging it from the gate, same as last race. Shack's only chance is to try and wire. If they go sub :47 to the half, they are toast. Don't see Pants as capable to win or ITM. None of the others are as quick to be considered. May send Stay Thirsty to set-up for Mo, who will try for a garden spot stalking the early gang - why are they not a coupled entry?

Will wait for post draw before commenting on late pace gang.

[cj]

There have only been three race shapes I've seen in at least the past 10 years...average, fast, and suicidal.

2002: 111 113
2003: 127 107
2004: 118 106
2005: 132 100
2006: 122 110
2007: 127 106
2008: 109 106
2009: 112 104
2010: 131 97

This race is never "stolen" up front.

[Skanoochies]

Cj.... Wouldn`t you consider War Emblem as stealing up front? :confused:

[cj]

Cj.... Wouldn`t you consider War Emblem as stealing up front? :confused:

No, he went a pretty good clip. I consider stealing to be running slower than the average winner does for a distance on the lead.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

No, he went a pretty good clip. I consider stealing to be running slower than the average winner does for a distance on the lead.

Agreed...he had softer fractions but not soft enough that i would say he stole it...23.25, 47.04, 1:11.75, and 1:36.70. He actually drew off at the end to.

[RXB]

War Emblem was a good colt but he also got a clear lead on average fractions, nobody ever really pressed him, and horses near the lead absolutely dominated on the main track that day. (Only 2/18 exacta spots filled by horses positioned worse than 4th after two furlongs-- and both finished second.) I wouldn't say he "stole" it but it was a very favourable scenario for him.

[cj]

War Emblem was a good colt but he also got a clear lead on average fractions, nobody ever really pressed him, and horses near the lead absolutely dominated on the main track that day. (Only 2/18 exacta spots filled by horses positioned worse than 4th after two furlongs-- and both finished second.) I wouldn't say he "stole" it but it was a very favourable scenario for him.

Nobody pressed him for sure. However, his Preakness was the complete opposite, and he won anyway. I would say horses that "steal" races don't return to win again while being pressed in a nasty battle all the way around.

[RXB]

For sure, he was a solid colt. But he won the Preakness by less than a length, not four lengths like the Derby, and his speed figure declined by several points. All I said was that the scenario in the Derby was very favourable for him.

[cj]

For sure, he was a solid colt. But he won the Preakness by less than a length, not four lengths like the Derby, and his speed figure declined by several points. All I said was that the scenario in the Derby was very favourable for him.

I agree. All the other jocks were scared stiff from the battle on the front end the year before.

[MNslappy]

Let's sift through the main E and E/P types. After all, it's these guys that Nehro, Dialed In, Toby and others are counting on to set the table. Four or five major pace players, depending on how you see Uncle Mo....Comma To The Top, Shackleford, Macho Man, Pants On Fire, and maybe Mo.

You forgot one that's going to be right on the pace, Decisive Moment.

[Plain Steve]

Thanks Phantom, I just have a few minor alterations.

First I must say that I see Shack as right out of the HardSpun, First Dude mold; meaning he has speed and he can carry it. Just how far we don’t yet know.

Here’s my take:

MO (E) in a career spanning five races, has led from start to finish in all but one, in which he had one horse in front of him for ¾ mile.Has never rated even in third position.

Pants on Fire (E) all three attempts to rate has been disasters save for a maiden race in which he finished second. Throw those out and you have a mirror image of MO.

As far as “Rosie not wanting to ding-dong it up front” I don’t think she has a choice. Number one, this horse has not proven he can rate, and number two, if Shack is allowed to run free on the front, it could be lights out. His Dosage Profile is within the guidelines and has 2 chefs on the stamina side. Every trackside report I have read finds the writer remarking how goodShack looks.

Soldat (EP) Two of three wins have been wire to wire, the third win he was from second, just off the pace. Has never won a race rating worse than second
“Run or Done”

Actually having written this post, I’m starting to like Santiva.
Early maturity, distance foundation at 2, preferred derby running style (perhaps a bit too farback at times) and a Dosage Profile that suggests the added distance may benefit him.
Knock is ninth is Blue Grass albeit with an excuse, and only 6 lenghts back.

Speaking of knocks, doesn’t every horse in the field have one??