Your thought's for a new handicapper.

[Jae_cubed]

I've been doing my homework online for handicapping and I have to admit the more I read the more in-dept and confusing this seems it can get. There just seems to be so much information to filter thru that I think I'm going to get confused and it will end up being counter productive.

So my thought is to take is slow and keep it simple until I'm comfortable with what I know and start adding more to it. So below is what I've narrowed down what I will be looking at when handicapping. I'd like to hear from all of you and your thoughts. Am I moving in the right direction? Am I skipping something you think is more important? Any advice is welcomed. I realize with just looking at these few things I'm going to be missing some important parts. I only plan on handicapping the races... I don't plan on betting any of them until I know more.

4 areas I will be looking at are:

1. T/R %
2. Is the horse moving up or down in class
3. Beyer speed (need to look into this more to understand it better)
4. Pace/Times (I will try to play out in my head/on paper how each horse will run the race)
5. Pick what I think will be the winner from the above.

I'm trying to compare 3 and 4 with the same length races. (Is there a huge difference in a race that runs 6f vs 7f? Can I compare them against each other or is that not a good idea?

I realize this subject has been beaten to dead and some of you are probably sick of answering questions like these.

I have a lot of work cut out for me and I have to start somewhere.

So I'd love to hear what everyone has to say.

Thanks in advance.

[hugh]

Hey man....
I'm a newbie too.. but this is the place to be to ask questions...
I got totally slammed with the amount of new terms and info I needed to learn.... but Dave is teaching a class in a few weeks .. you can still sign up.. and that will give you some good strategy...
It took me a week or so to actually get approved to post so I'm thankful they let me write thing here...
I study around 2 hours a day and am working on my record keeping for the EVG meet... and actively look at all the posts here at PA.
I figure that after a year of good DD I will be able to become consistently profitable.
Most of the handicappers here use software... I'm looking around at the best of the programs.
Welcome to the game my friend.
Hugh

[Some_One]

I think you have to add it how to recognize value, this game is not about picking winners, it's about making money. Cashing a ticket on a even money horse when in your opinion it had a >40% chance is not going to be good for the wallet in the long term.

[dansan]

you might want to try something easier like blackjack :lol:

[Jae_cubed]

I think you have to add it how to recognize value, this game is not about picking winners, it's about making money. Cashing a ticket on a even money horse when in your opinion it had a >40% chance is not going to be good for the wallet in the long term.

Good point. I've already decided that if a race isn't worth betting due to this reason that I would still pick the winner of the race but make a note saying this would be a race that I would skip. I've read and understand that you will lose money over a period of time if you are only picking fav.

I think this is yet another area that is going to be hard when you look at a 9 or 10 card race and maybe 1 is worth betting. LOL And I can see where you better have that 1 race right. :) Like someone else said maybe I should learn black jack. :D

[Some_One]

There have been cards where I've had to pass all but 1 or 2 races, so be it, I like to think of this as investing, and not gambling so I want good spots. I'm usually skip races full of fts' or those maiden turf races plus I hate short fields, usually look for 7+ (so SouthCal doesn't get much of play as of late, lol). I think you said you're playing EVD and from what I've seen they have good races to play so I think it's ok.

Looking at my records for today, I played 7 from Woodbine, 3 Golden Gate, 2 Belmont (awful card, turf races were a joke), 1 Turf Paradise, 1 Hastings and 1 Tampa (usually they have good playable races, but not today)

[thaskalos]

Looking at my records for today, I played 7 from Woodbine, 3 Golden Gate, 2 Belmont (awful card, turf races were a joke), 1 Turf Paradise, 1 Hastings and 1 Tampa (usually they have good playable races, but not today)
You already have a leg up on most of your competition; you keep records. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

One extremely important thing in handicapping is to be able to predict 'how the race is going to go'. How much speed? How many duelers? Is anyone loose on the lead? Will the early pace be too slow for a closer to pick them off at the end? Things like this.

I'm not sure how important this is, but to me, its the #1 thing i look at while handicapping. If i dont know how the race is going to shape up, i often will pass.

[Robert Fischer]

welcome to the game

[thaskalos]

One extremely important thing in handicapping is to be able to predict 'how the race is going to go'. How much speed? How many duelers? Is anyone loose on the lead? Will the early pace be too slow for a closer to pick them off at the end? Things like this.

I'm not sure how important this is, but to me, its the #1 thing i look at while handicapping. If i dont know how the race is going to shape up, i often will pass.
I'm not sure about the validity of your point SRU...

It is slowly occurring to me that these "one-dimensional" speed horses might be a little more "maneuverable" than we were led to believe.

Horseplayers are not the only ones reading the DRF you know...the "connections" read it too...and they are fully capable of noticing these "expected" speed duels.

I wagered heavily on one of these "speed demons" in a $5,000, 5.5 furlong race at Turf Paradise last monday.

The horse was a one dimensional speed horse - easily the speed of the speed - who figured to go wire to wire.

Imagine my surprise when this horse broke dead last...settled into 8th place early - a good 10 lengths off the lead...and preceded to circle the entire field 7-wide...winning by 2 lengths.

If $5,000 claimers at Turf Paradise can do it...how hard can it be?

[cj]

Trying to predict the pace is futile. The only value would be if you had a high success rate, and were also not in agreement with the betting public on many occasions.

[The Hawk]

Here's my two cents:

You are already showing two huge traits that will help you be successful: Patience and discipline. The latter has always been important but the former has never been so vital, as you will have to pass a great majority of races if you're going to win in the long run, given the way the game has changed.

Secondly, to me the key is having access to information that few others have. That's why someone like CJ is successful -- he creates his own figures, and they're good. Speed/Pace figures are the obvious source for "subjective data" but there are others, including comprehensive trip notes, pace set-ups, complex trainer angles, etc. Clearly, you're only going to be as good as your information, and that's where the work comes in, but I don't know how to make money in this game long-term by picking up a DRF the night before. If you find the prep work is where you're deriving most of your joy, you're onto something. Because if you're not enjoying it you may as well do something else anyway.

[jelly]

One thing any newbie should seriously consider is takeout.



NY has a 26% takeout and Monmouth has a 15% takeout on their pk4's

Example-If NY and Monmouth both had a pk4 with $100,000 wagered and both had 37 winners,the payoff would be $2,000 for the NY gambler and $2,297.for the Monmouth gambler.

$300 bucks down the tube..

Now multiply this over the decades that you'll be gambling and you can see how important the takeout is to your handicapping.


Good luck

[Some_One]

One extremely important thing in handicapping is to be able to predict 'how the race is going to go'. How much speed? How many duelers? Is anyone loose on the lead? Will the early pace be too slow for a closer to pick them off at the end? Things like this.

I'm not sure how important this is, but to me, its the #1 thing i look at while handicapping. If i dont know how the race is going to shape up, i often will pass.

I totally agree, if you can visualize a race and be correct, it will help so much with your wagering decisions. I think Dave's New Pace really helps with that myself.

[Pell Mell]

I'm not sure about the validity of your point SRU...

It is slowly occurring to me that these "one-dimensional" speed horses might be a little more "maneuverable" than we were led to believe.

Horseplayers are not the only ones reading the DRF you know...the "connections" read it too...and they are fully capable of noticing these "expected" speed duels.

I wagered heavily on one of these "speed demons" in a $5,000, 5.5 furlong race at Turf Paradise last monday.

The horse was a one dimensional speed horse - easily the speed of the speed - who figured to go wire to wire.

Imagine my surprise when this horse broke dead last...settled into 8th place early - a good 10 lengths off the lead...and preceded to circle the entire field 7-wide...winning by 2 lengths.

If $5,000 claimers at Turf Paradise can do it...how hard can it be?

Right on! I have been watching that happen for 60 years. You just can't count on the speed going to the front. :D

[Pell Mell]

I've been doing my homework online for handicapping and I have to admit the more I read the more in-dept and confusing this seems it can get. There just seems to be so much information to filter thru that I think I'm going to get confused and it will end up being counter productive.

So my thought is to take is slow and keep it simple until I'm comfortable with what I know and start adding more to it. So below is what I've narrowed down what I will be looking at when handicapping. I'd like to hear from all of you and your thoughts. Am I moving in the right direction? Am I skipping something you think is more important? Any advice is welcomed. I realize with just looking at these few things I'm going to be missing some important parts. I only plan on handicapping the races... I don't plan on betting any of them until I know more.

4 areas I will be looking at are:

1. T/R %
2. Is the horse moving up or down in class
3. Beyer speed (need to look into this more to understand it better)
4. Pace/Times (I will try to play out in my head/on paper how each horse will run the race)
5. Pick what I think will be the winner from the above.

I'm trying to compare 3 and 4 with the same length races. (Is there a huge difference in a race that runs 6f vs 7f? Can I compare them against each other or is that not a good idea?

I realize this subject has been beaten to dead and some of you are probably sick of answering questions like these.

I have a lot of work cut out for me and I have to start somewhere.

So I'd love to hear what everyone has to say.

Thanks in advance.

OK, I know I'll probably get some flack here but it makes no difference to me. I've been doing this for over 60 yrs. I made track variants before they were even heard of. I made pace and speed figures and many years ago it was profitable but no more.
I've made a living, (I didn't get filthy rich) for the last 30 yrs betting horses. I even have a list of clients that pay me for selections (and I don't really care if anyone believes it or not, but there are some on this board that know it's true).
I haven't used speed or pace figures in many years. I can basically glance at a race and know who the top 3-4 contenders are and so does everyone else.
The secret to getting good priced winners is learning to ANTICIPATE who is going to run big today. I'm wrong a lot more than I'm right but I get a lot of 20/1 and up winners.
I look at 30-100 races a day. It only takes me 15-30 seconds to spot a horse I'm interested in. I usually only get a couple plays a day and sometimes I go for days without a play. Nothing says your obligated to play any particular race.
Sure, you can make money and it doesn't take a lot of work to do it. The problem is it took me at least 30 yrs to get really good at it. ;)

[Relwob Owner]

OK, I know I'll probably get some flack here but it makes no difference to me. I've been doing this for over 60 yrs. I made track variants before they were even heard of. I made pace and speed figures and many years ago it was profitable but no more.
I've made a living, (I didn't get filthy rich) for the last 30 yrs betting horses. I even have a list of clients that pay me for selections (and I don't really care if anyone believes it or not, but there are some on this board that know it's true).
I haven't used speed or pace figures in many years. I can basically glance at a race and know who the top 3-4 contenders are and so does everyone else.
The secret to getting good priced winners is learning to ANTICIPATE who is going to run big today. I'm wrong a lot more than I'm right but I get a lot of 20/1 and up winners.
I look at 30-100 races a day. It only takes me 15-30 seconds to spot a horse I'm interested in. I usually only get a couple plays a day and sometimes I go for days without a play. Nothing says your obligated to play any particular race.
Sure, you can make money and it doesn't take a lot of work to do it. The problem is it took me at least 30 yrs to get really good at it. ;)



I dont think you should get any flak for that post....seems to me like you look at a ton of races a day and focus on spotting longshots, which makes sense to me. You seem to have a ton of patience and are very selective and I am at my best when I handicap that way as well.

[dav4463]

I think learning how to bet is more important than good handicapping.

[JustRalph]

Race Shape

enough said

If you are new, you need to understand this.

[ronsmac]

I'd recommend you getting into sports betting or poker quite frankly.

[jdhanover]

Question 1 - what is your goal? If it is to make money, expect a long learning curve and a lot of WORK.
Question 2 - how much time do you have? I have played the horses for 30 years but never with enough time to be really 'serious'. Hoping to start going that way now but will need the rest of real life to not get in the way (a tall order). If your time is more limited, then expect to be a casual fan. Not a winner, but a heckuva a lot of fun in the process. Nothing wrong with that. What I have lost at the track has been the price of the entertainment. My wife likes expensive dinners; I prefer to spend that money over 3-4 hours at the track. In the end it is the cost of having fun.

At a minimum reading the key 5-10 books are critical (Beyer, Mitchell, Cramer, etc). Not because it makes you a winner but because at least you then know what most people are looking at.

Once you answer those two questions, then your next steps will be clearer.

And nothing teaches more than experience.....

[Ted Craven]

Re the 'literature of the game' - consider adding to your reference library the Reference Library of the Sartin Methodology. Complete published works of Dr Howard Sartin , one who greatly influenced (and sometimes annoyed) many of the other greats in the game like Brohamer, Cramer, Pizzolla, Ainslie, Bradshaw, Schmidt, Schwartz. Talk about 'hidden' resources, including all Follow Up Journals, manuals and seminar audios. Free for the asking (you pay the time and attention to study).

Sartin Methodology Reference Library: http://sartinmethodology.com/sartin-library-info/

Ted

[hrspwr]

Like Mr. Craven said. Read all you can and study the various theories. New to this post but have been betting and picking winners and losers for 25+ years. One thing I am good at is keeping detailed records. Start by trying to become an "expert" at some track, then at some distance, then on some surface, then on some type of race and build around that. Definition of an "expert" in these contexts: have a positive ROI. Don't try to bet every race at every track. Play within your means. Good advice I wish I had many years ago!

[Robert Goren]

For the beginner. Pick a circuit and only look at it until you get very good idea of what happening. Handicap(but necessarily bet) every race. Keep track of what races or types of horses you are winning with. When you see something that strikes you as strange make a note of it and see if you can figure out why and look to see if happens again. When something strange happens in two races in a row, you may find find something that will very profitable in the short run. Warning nothing lasts forever. Knowing when to get off the boat is more important than knowing when to get on.

[ceejay]

I only plan on handicapping the races... I don't plan on betting any of them until I know more.

4 areas I will be looking at are:

1. T/R %
2. Is the horse moving up or down in class
3. Beyer speed (need to look into this more to understand it better)
4. Pace/Times (I will try to play out in my head/on paper how each horse will run the race)
5. Pick what I think will be the winner from the above.

I'm trying to compare 3 and 4 with the same length races. (Is there a huge difference in a race that runs 6f vs 7f? Can I compare them against each other or is that not a good idea?

J^3,

1st, I do not think that handicapping without wagering will lead to success because to know what your decisions would be at post time you really need to have "skin in the game." Also, just because a horse wins and pays for example $10, that doesn't mean that he was 4-1 at the time you would have placed that wager.

The key to success is finding an "edge" vs. the public. That edge could be any handicapping factor, or even your wagering strategy. Items 1 through 3 on your list are very available to the general public and although they would provide winners probably not profitably. As mentioned by cj item #4 is difficult to impossible.

As far as distance is concerned 7 furlongs is considered by many to be a specialist distance. Longer than a sprint and shorter than a route race.

[Spiderman]

Follow-up on your activity by reading the full charts at equibase.com. If you have access, view video replays - some of the ADWs have them or you can subscribe.

Race dynamics, how the running will unfold is very important. Start your selection process by finding the speed (front runner types).

After you absorb all of the initial advice presented in this thread and have had test runs at a few racing cards, make your own your decisions, not those of so-call "analysts". It's your money, make your own decisions.

[Jae_cubed]

Thanks for all the advise guys. I've read and re-read this thread twice and I've come to the conclusion that I can read all there is to read but actual experience is what is going to help me start learning this game. I think I need to just start jumping into some PP and see what I notice.

I do like the idea of sticking to one track for the time being. I'll probably do the Aqua, Saratoga, Belmont thing as they are familiar to me.

I'm also becoming aware that this sport can req. a decent amount of time if you want to be profitable. Not sure I have that kind of time so for now I'll see what I can learn and just enjoy the sport. Life has a funny way of getting in the way of "fun" time. :)

Again thanks for all the thoughts. It is great to see how everyone thinks and what people seem to think works or doesn't work. I guess I just need to try it out for myself and see what I find.

Thanks all.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for all the advise guys. I've read and re-read this thread twice and I've come to the conclusion that I can read all there is to read but actual experience is what is going to help me start learning this game. I think I need to just start jumping into some PP and see what I notice.

I do like the idea of sticking to one track for the time being. I'll probably do the Aqua, Saratoga, Belmont thing as they are familiar to me.

I'm also becoming aware that this sport can req. a decent amount of time if you want to be profitable. Not sure I have that kind of time so for now I'll see what I can learn and just enjoy the sport. Life has a funny way of getting in the way of "fun" time. :)

Again thanks for all the thoughts. It is great to see how everyone thinks and what people seem to think works or doesn't work. I guess I just need to try it out for myself and see what I find.

Thanks all.

50,000 Chunks

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert

[Delta Cone]

I'm also becoming aware that this sport can req. a decent amount of time if you want to be profitable.

That is where the fun is... the time and study. I never wanted to look at the form and apply a few rules to come up with quick selections. In other words, I am not a system player.

Now I certainly don't begrudge anyone for playing that way. If you enjoy it and make a profit, good for you.

I believe the joy of the game is not only solving the mystery of a race, but also the process of solving that mystery.

Some people like chess, soduku, crossword puzzles or even poker or sports betting. But racing is so much more complex than those games, and thus, provides a much more satisfying feeling when you have unlocked the clues and solved the puzzle.

[stuball]

That is where the fun is... the time and study. I never wanted to look at the form and apply a few rules to come up with quick selections. In other words, I am not a system player.

Now I certainly don't begrudge anyone for playing that way. If you enjoy it and make a profit, good for you.

I believe the joy of the game is not only solving the mystery of a race, but also the process of solving that mystery.

Some people like chess, soduku, crossword puzzles or even poker or sports betting. But racing is so much more complex than those games, and thus, provides a much more satisfying feeling when you have unlocked the clues and solved the puzzle.


And the next race exactly the same goes contrary to the last one.
But if you insist on value (VAlUE) you have a chance to come out
on top..

Stuball

[shouldacoulda]

I recently read a post on this forum where the poster quoted advice he was given and it has stuck with me. He said he was once told that "every race is unique unto itself, once run never to be run again". I think it is one of the most profound statements about racing I have ever heard.

I have done the hours of pouring over the racing form, the speed figures, class moves, distance changes surface changes etc. I think it is a natural progression that most players go through. Since I have moved to an online venue and see pp's in a pdf format I haven't touched a pen to a sheet in over 2 years. I don't use a computer to handicap other than the one I was born with.

After you look at enough races "on paper" and see enough run, you will get a feel for how the race will play out. The most important lesson you can learn is knowing when you have an edge with a favorable payoff, and when to pass a race. You should really be passing more than you play. I still have a problem with that and am working on it. Logic tells you there will be a winner, but the smart player will wait for a favorable payoff. It's like stocks, risk verses reward.

The best books I have read are Beyer on Speed by Andy Beyer. The Handicappers Condition Book (excellent) by James Quinn and Calibration Handicapping by Jim Lehane. I also like to wait until seeing the post parade before making a decision and will watch odds untill 2-1 minutes before post. That's where Body Language of a Racehorse comes in. Great DVD. Spotted a 99-1 shot on March 3rd at Will Rogers Downs with post parade alone. Thought it was worth a 2 dollar show bet. I couldn't kick myself hard enough when I watch him take the lead in the stretch. I got $25.40 for show but would have rather have had the $200.00 win payoff. I made that wager without having a PP of the race. Most people will lose against a horse like that and say the race was fixed, but from what I saw I would say no.

Best advice I can give is play on paper for at least 3 months preferably 6 and keep track of your progress and learn as much as you can on every aspect of the game. I have gone as far as going on veteranarian sites to learn what quarter cracks are and how they are repaired. Leave no stone unturned. Good luck and as Harvey Pack used to say "may the horse be with you"

[Overlay]

I recently read a post on this forum where the poster quoted advice he was given and it has stuck with me. He said he was once told that "every race is unique unto itself, once run never to be run again". I think it is one of the most profound statements about racing I have ever heard.

That's undoubtedly true, but there are also factors and patterns that show remarkable consistency in their performance and predictive power over time, and that can be used across a wide range of races to make valid judgments about each horse's likelihood of winning, even though the unique mix of horses in each race will produce rankings and probabilities that are distinctive to that race.

[shouldacoulda]

That's undoubtedly true, but there are also factors and patterns that show remarkable consistency in their performance and predictive power over time, and that can be used across a wide range of races to make valid judgments about each horse's likelihood of winning, even though the unique mix of horses in each race will produce rankings and probabilities that are distinctive to that race.
Absolutely true. I look for these patterns for "the set up" races" ala Mike Pizzola and Jim Lehane. But it is relative to the competition of the race at hand. I love looking for and finding races with vulnerable favorites too.

[Capper Al]

If you are a weekend warrior then setup a limit that you can afford to lose per month. Consider this your cost of entertainment and education for the hobby. Stick to it and keep hnadicappping and reading. Don't subscribe to anybody else's methods. Find your own way. After about twenty years, you might be close to being profitable.

[thaskalos]

After about twenty years, you might be close to being profitable.

A sombering thought when you phrase it like that...

Very true...and depressing at the same time.

It's a very hard game to figure out...

[shouldacoulda]

Where was this thread when I started playing (1980). Where was the internet and personal computers for that matter . I started playing golf when I was 13 but didn't really find a golf swing until I was 42. It's kinda like that with handicapping. At least for me anyway. You have been given some great advice here. Don't expect to get rich overnight and consider any losses you take as tuition.

[citygoat]

You can't lose them all.

The horses are blood and breath not numbers.

[pondman]

I look at 30-100 races a day. It only takes me 15-30 seconds to spot a horse I'm interested in. I usually only get a couple plays a day and sometimes I go for days without a play. Nothing says your obligated to play any particular race.;)

I've made comment like this before and got bombed with negativity. I also can scan a card in about a minute looking for a key horse. I usually plan my bets 3 or 4 days in advance, if the drf is ready. Therefore I know my cash outflow for the week by Wednesday. I also will sit out until I see what I need to see. For example at GG last week I only bet 4 horse for $100 each. The result for the week at GG was a net of $733, which was light betting for me at GG; I just didn't see much.

My advice to a beginner is save your money for the big shots-- playing fewer horses (on the nose) for higher odds and larger amounts. It takes a couple years of trial and error to strengthen your emotions before you can drop several hundred on a horse, and be able to walk away from the loses, and not follow the lose with a chase, making a bad decision you normally wouldn't make.

I also think it's important for a first timer to understand gambling over time. You have to understand it only takes 1 ten to one shot to break even on 11 consistent bets (if the first 10 lose.) It really require understanding good, profitable bets over time, and continuing to make good, profitable bets even if you happen to get beat up in a race (because it's going to happen.)

When it comes to methodology, I personally believe class is the way to go. But to do this you've got to do your own independent study and keep records. You'll likely find unique advantages at every track, which over time will be profitable. I think every track has them-- you just need to find them.

[pondman]

That's undoubtedly true, but there are also factors and patterns that show remarkable consistency in their performance and predictive power over time, and that can be used across a wide range of races to make valid judgments .

Often a trainer will tip off the public with their management decision-- when to work a horse and the placement of a horse.

[how cliche]

winning at horse racing is difficult, but can indeed be achieved. here are some tenets that help me succeed.

1) listen to yourself and ignore the inteligencia. it's your money not theirs.

2) have your selections written out before you begin. adjust only for scratches and washed off scenarios.

3) use legitimate favorites as leverage tools/money saving animals. dot your i's n cross your t's to make sure you're perceiving the favorite correctly.

4) pass races where your opinion is weak.

5) bet agressively into situations that offer high rewards if you're correct.

6) always be thinking about which bets are gonna put you in the best possible position to win.