A newbie's comments on BC day..

[gonin02]

Well.. I stuck with the favourites (or so called favourites), and ended up down for the day... but I as a novice, I noticed something...

If you bet a $2 win on every horse in the program, that is a total of $182 dollars (91 horses).

With the dead heat in race 8 (High Chaparral and Johar), you would have won a total of $264 ! (pls correct if my figures are worng) Results (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=SA&CY=USA&DATE=10/25/2003&STYLE=EQB)

264-182 =82 dollars profit..

How bout that ?? Of course this takes the fun out of handicapping..

Anyone want to see if this pattern holds true for previous years ??

[dav4463]

How about if you bet every horse at 14-1 and up on big days like the BC day ? There are nights at Mountaineer Park where you can do this and show a profit !

[SAL]

Yeah.... and you'll take a bath when the first two favorites take 7 out of 9. If there was a way to make money like this, someone would have found it by now.

[dav4463]

I wasn't actually suggesting it as a way to make money, just remembering the frustrating nights that occasionally happen at Mountaineer when a $102 winner romps home followed by a $40 winner ! Also, in really big races like the Derby or BC races, it actually makes sense to go after the big longshots, because there usually aren't any really bad horses in those races.

[dav4463]

If I added right....if you bet every horse today during the BC races that went off at 14-1 or higher...you would have bet $92 and collected $230.60 !!! Sure would have been less stressful !

[Dave Schwartz]

I recall a fall meet at Hollywood about 20 years ago that I tracked where you could have bet every horse in every race for the entire meet and been profitable. Never saw so many $150 payouts in my life.

Dave Schwartz

[kenwoodallpromos]

Check the Equibase daily works and paper test $2.00 bets on every horse Except the top 2 favorites when the middle 4f dirt work is 50.0 or more seconds. Especially on tracks that normally have faster type pars. Especially weekends.

[doophus]

In the 2002 BC at AP there were (89) runners, and if you had placed a $2 win bet on each your profit would have been $24; $178 bets w/$202 returned.

[tanda]

I believe a flat bet on all horse shows a profit. After 2001, I checked using a bet on all horses at field size:1 or higher (for example, 12:1 or higher in a 12 horse field). It showed a nice profit at the time. The results of the last two years are consistent with the results.

[alysheba88]

Actually I believe that is a long-term BC trend as well. Ie; if you bet every horse in every race going back to BC I, you would be a winner. Not suggesting people should do that, and certainly not on non-BC races. But it is an interesting phenomena.

[tanda]

Yes. I meant that I checked from 2001 back to the beginning of the BC. It is a long-term trend. I believe Mark Cramer has discussed it as well.

[Pace Cap'n]

Here are some figures for payouts betting every horse over the years:

www.equidaily.com/bestbet/opinion/31028.html

[pmd62ndst]

Could it really be that easy? Is this the Rosetta Stone?

Final Odds >= Number of Entries.

At first glace, the numbers don't look so promising, but when I added my "contenders" to the mix, it looks VERY promising.

Interesting... Need to investiate further.

PMD

[Secretariat]

Final Odds>=NH

Was intrigued and decided to check the Classic to see how it held up.

Well, if one includes Arcangues in 1993 the results were as follows:

124 horses qualfied
6 winners
4.8% Win
116% profit on the dollar

Additionally, one would have won 30% of the Classics (obviously mutiple plays per race)

Excluding Arcangues's 269.20 payoff, and the 1993 Breeders Cup, reveals the following:

116 horses qualfied
5 winners
4.3% Win
15% profit on the dollar

Very low win% but profitable. Would be interesting to check on other cup races to see if might be good to eliminate some. The other approach of 20/1 up only horses would have fewer qualfiers, and you'd catch only 3 winners, but 19/1 up woulda caught 5 winners.

Sample is awfully small for anything definitive.

[gonin02]

He must have read this thread !!

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
Here are some figures for payouts betting every horse over the years:

www.equidaily.com/bestbet/opinion/31028.html