2011 Kentucky Derby Projected Morning Line Odds

[xfile]

2011 Kentucky Derby Projected Morning Line Odds for Top 20 Graded Earners

Please Note: These Are NOT Our True Odds

Dialed In (9-2)
Toby’s Corner (5-1)
Uncle Mo (5-1)
Mucho Macho Man (6-1)
Nehro (6-1)
Archarcharch (8-1)
Midnight Interlude (8-1)
Shackleford (10-1)
Pants On Fire (10-1)
Soldat (10-1)
Animal Kingdom (12-1)
Santiva (12-1)
Master of Hounds (15-1)
Stay Thirsty (15-1)
Comma on the Top (15-1)
Brilliant Speed (20-1)
Twinspired (20-1)
Decisive Moment (30-1)
Watch Me Go (50-1)
Twice The Appeal (50-1)

[horses4courses]

I haven't added the percentages, but it's easy to see you are over 150%.

Some of those horses around 8, or 10-1, will be twice those odds.

Good luck with that....... :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Here is a list of the current top 20 at around 130%:

4-1 Dialed In
9-2 Uncle Mo
10 Archarcharch
10 Nehro
12 Toby's Corner
12 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
15 Midnight Interlude
20 Master Of Hounds
20 Pants On Fire
20 Shackleford
25 Stay Thirsty
25 Brilliant Speed
25 Santiva
30 Comma To The Top
30 Twice The Appeal
30 Animal Kingdom
30 Twinspired
50 Watch Me Go
50 Decisive Moment

Good luck!

[Some_One]

Those guys should run a casino, 185% book, lol.

Based on their odds, this is more realistic


Dialed In 6.7
Toby’s Corner 8.2
Uncle Mo 8.2
Mucho Macho Man 9.8
Nehro 9.8
Archarcharch 9.8
Midnight Interlude 12.8
Shackleford 15.9
Pants On Fire 15.9
Soldat 15.9
Animal Kingdom 19.0
Santiva 19.0
Comma on the Top 23.6
Master of Hounds 23.6
Stay Thirsty 23.6
Brilliant Speed 31.3
Twinspired 31.3
Decisive Moment 46.7
Watch Me Go 77.5
Twice The Appeal 77.5

[jdhanover]

That looks more like what I suspect we will see. No real favorite - actual fave goes off in the 5-1 range I suspect.
Given that the only Derby winner I have hit was Ferdinand (never play a short price in it), I will throw my $5 into the ring on some horse (TBD) then watch and root for those of you smarter than me to win. 20 horse field, many unproven, many questions. Sounds like a lottery to me.

[Plain Steve]

Those guys should run a casino, 185% book, lol.



Good catch, Some_One, imagine paying them real money for their "selections."

[Bennie]

Odds will differ from these if you believe Repole. Said if Mo isn't the favorite he will wager enough money to make him the favorite. I will thank him later for making my horses pay off better.

[Smarty Cide]

Odds will differ from these if you believe Repole. Said if Mo isn't the favorite he will wager enough money to make him the favorite. I will thank him later for making my horses pay off better.

why does it matter to him if Mo is the fav or not?

[cj]

why does it matter to him if Mo is the fav or not?

Because he is a dumbass is my guess.

[Bennie]

Beat me to it CJ, but the story is he "vowed" that Uncle Mo would return to the position he had before the Wood, as the Derby favorite,even if he had to wager enough of his money to make it so.

[Rapid Grey]

Only two horses last year were single digit odds, Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver and remember that the latter had the $100K win bet by the contest winner. I'm thinking Uncle Mo, Dialed In and Nehro are the only single digit odds horses this year.

[Some_One]

100K aint much in the derby.

[Tex9Down]

100K aint much in the derby.

Really? Wow, I thought that would change the odds quite a bit, but what do I know. Really, I don't know.......

[JustRalph]

Forgot about that guy who bet a 100k in the contest. I wonder who he picks this year :lol:

[horses4courses]

Forgot about that guy who bet a 100k in the contest. I wonder who he picks this year :lol:

He already has......a very astute income tax preparer ;)

[Grits]

This guy's sounding like IEAH and Dutrow all over again. I wish him well, but still, I'm sorry. He needs to shut the hell up!!!

He needs to let Pletcher discuss his horses; he's becoming another loudmouth bore with more wealth than brains.

"If your horses run well, that's great; but shut up the rest of the week--or until you find yourself standing in the winners circle on Saturday."

("Shut up" isn't a term to throw around lightly, but this guy needs to read it.)

[xfile]

Good catch, Some_One, imagine paying them real money for their "selections."

Reminds me of Trotter in Let it Ride figuring in his head. Adding up how much money the track tout makes selling those tip sheets....lol

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Did that movie scene lead to your website?

[xfile]

Did that movie scene lead to your website?

Could be. The movie came out in 1989. I started this project in 1995 basically at the start of the internet. Had one website then another in 1997 then Full Card Reports started in 2003. Man time flies...

[xfile]

I wasn't adding the percentages. A ml should be 125 -130

Dialed In (5-1) 16
Toby’s Corner (6-1) 14
Uncle Mo (6-1) 14 44
Mucho Macho Man (8-1) 11 55
Nehro (10-1) 9
Archarcharch (10-1) 9 73
Midnight Interlude (12-1) 8 81
Shackleford (15-1) 6
Pants On Fire (15-1) 6
Soldat (20-1) 5 98
Santiva (20-1) 5
Animal Kingdom (20-1) 5 108
Comma on the Top (25-1) 4
Master of Hounds (25-1) 4 116
Stay Thirsty (30-1) 3
Brilliant Speed (30-1) 3
Twinspired (30-1) 3 125
Decisive Moment (50-1) 2
Watch Me Go (99-1) 1
Twice The Appeal (99-1) 1 129

[xfile]

2011 Kentucky Derby Projected Morning Line Odds

Please Note: These Are NOT Our True Odds.

Updated MAY 04 @ 5:21 a.m. (ET)

The morning line for a horse race represents how the oddsmaker expects the public to
wager, NOT how he thinks the race will be run.

Oddsmakers say a standard rule of thumb in setting a morning line is that the point
values of all the horses in a race should total between 123 and 129 points. That
allows for the approximately 17 percent takeout that goes toward purses, state taxes
and the track's share and for a margin of error.

Dialed In (4-1)
Uncle Mo (5-1)
Mucho Macho Man (6-1)
Nehro (8-1)
Archarcharch (10-1)
Midnight Interlude(12-1)
Shackleford (15-1)
Pants On Fire (15-1)
Soldat (15-1)
Santiva (15-1)
Animal Kingdom (20-1)
Comma on the Top (20-1)
Master of Hounds (20-1)
Stay Thirsty (30-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Twinspired (30-1)
Derby Kitten (30-1)
Decisive Moment (50-1)
Watch Me Go (50-1)
Twice The Appeal (50-1)
-----------------------------
TOTAL 124 POINTS

[xfile]

UPDATE MAY 4 - Full Card Reports 2011 Kentucky Derby Projected Morning Line Odds

Please Note: These Are NOT Our True Odds.

Updated MAY 04 @ 6:34 a.m. (ET)

The morning line for a horse race represents how the oddsmaker expects the public to
wager, NOT how he thinks the race will be run.

Oddsmakers say a standard rule of thumb in setting a morning line is that the point
values of all the horses in a race should total between 123 and 129 points. That
allows for the approximately 17 percent takeout that goes toward purses, state taxes
and the track's share and for a margin of error.

Dialed In (4-1)
Uncle Mo (9-2)
Mucho Macho Man (8-1)
Nehro (8-1)
Archarcharch (10-1)
Midnight Interlude(12-1)
Soldat (12-1)
Pants On Fire (15-1)
Stay Thirsty (15-1)
Shackleford (20-1)
Santiva (20-1)
Animal Kingdom (20-1)
Comma on the Top (20-1)
Master of Hounds (20-1)
Brilliant Speed (30-1)
Twinspired (30-1)
Derby Kitten (30-1)
Decisive Moment (50-1)
Watch Me Go (50-1)
Twice The Appeal (50-1)
-----------------------------
TOTAL 124 POINTS

[Plain Steve]

UPDATE MAY 4 - Full Card Reports 2011 Kentucky Derby Projected Morning Line Odds

Please Note: These Are NOT Our True Odds.

Updated MAY 04 @ 6:34 a.m. (ET)

The morning line for a horse race represents how the oddsmaker expects the public to
wager, NOT how he thinks the race will be run.

Oddsmakers say a standard rule of thumb in setting a morning line is that the point
values of all the horses in a race should total between 123 and 129 points. That
allows for the approximately 17 percent takeout that goes toward purses, state taxes
and the track's share and for a margin of error.



Most in this thread were already aware of that.

[BobD]

Crurrently on the William Hill site:

Dialed In 4-1
Uncle Mo 4-1
Nehro 8-1
Archarcharch 10-1
Mucho Mancho Man 12-1
Schakleford and Midnight Interlude 14-1
Pants on Fire, Soldat and Master of Hounds 20-1
Animal Kingdom, Santiva and Brilliant Speed 25-1
Comma to the Top, Stay Thirsty and Twice the Appeal 33-1
Derby Kitten and Twinspired 50-1
Watch Me Go and Decisive Moment 66-1