Frankel and the layoff

[cj]

Memo to Bobby...stop giving your horses long layoffs before the big races! It doesn't work. I just don't get the strategy. What was he today, 0-100? MDO was without doubt the best horse in the Classic, but being short killed him. You can do that for 5 horse fields with minimal competition in March or April, but not on the big day.

I guess Mineshaft wins Horse of the Year by default!

[Shacopate]

Racehorses race.

I don't like the skip strategy of the juvenille either. Based on what? A jinx? If Spectacular Bid had had a BC, this wouldn't even be an issue.

I understand "freshenings", but IMHO, to miss the key preps (held 3 saturdays before the BC) is cheating your horse.

[Niko]

Regarding the Juveniles, I don't get skipping either but maybe someone can give me some insight because I'm not a horseman. I think one of the biggest reasons they don't repeat is simply that some two year olds mature faster than others . Same as some kids in junior high and high school.
By the time these 2 year old superstars are 3, other horses have matured more and are now stronger and faster then the last years winners. If that's the case it's foolish to skip a big purse and the opportunity to cash big when you have the chance.
The only reason I can see to pass is that it takes such a physical toll on a young horse to condition and get them ready for these big races when they are young that it knocks them out prematurely from a physical or mental standpoint. If that's the case it would be better for horseracing if these two years were still racing at 3 and I applaud the horseman for making the decision.
(I do have to add that I have a bias and prefer not to play 2 year olds for a couple reasons)

[kingfin66]

I caught part of an interview on our local (Seattle) horseracing program this morning. Unfortunately, I didn't get the name of the person being interview. That said, the interview was interesting because the person said that Frankel is a strong believer in speed figures - especially Ragozin's - and bounce theories. The person said that Frankel is such of a follower of this stuff that he makes sure that his horses don't bounce by not running them back after a big race. Has anybody else heard this about Frankel? Wish I knew the name of the guy being interviewed...

[cj]

I have heard this before about the Sheets. Not sure about the Raggies, but Jerry Brown's Thorograph didn't have a very good day, much like Frankel. For what my opinion is worth, predicting bounces of the best horses in the world is impossible, and nothing like predicting bounces for cheap horses.

Here is the analysis from there site.


THORO GRAPH
THOROUGHBRED DATA SERVICES
www.thorograph.com – phone #-800-331-3778
Santa Anita, October 25, 2003
1st Lacie Girl bangs out numbers consistently but may not need her best
since she figures to save ground. Win at 3-1 or more. B.
2nd BC Distaff—It’s tough to bet on Sightseek, and it’s tough to bet
against her, making this race almost unplayable. Elloluv is the most
likely to run well. Elloluv to Win at 6-1 or more, exacta under
Sightseek. B-.
3rd Juv. Fillies—Halfbridled was a bet against even before the draw. Box
Class Above, Victory USA, Society Selection, Forest Music. Double
up first 3, double up again first 2. A.
4th Mile Turf—Peace Rules may not even have to run his best to take this.
Special Ring’s last was much better than it looked. Oasis Dream is
best of Europeans. Box those 3, double up with Peace Rules on top.
B+.
5th Sprint—Aldebaran has good figures, but faces big traffic problems.
Shake You Down has monster numbers, and there isn’t much early
speed in here. Midas Eyes ran a huge one last time he was fresh, and
should be one of the few to get a good trip. Cajun Beat is worth
throwing in at a huge price. Box Shake You Down, Midas Eyes, Cajun
Beat—light. Box the first 2 heavy.
Pick 3—Races 3, 4, 5—Class Above, Victory USA, Society
Selection, Forest Music WITH Peace Rules, Special Ring, Oasis
Dream WITH Shake You Down, Midas Eyes. Weight it like they’re
weighted in the races.
Sap2
6th Filly & Mare Turf—This race may be decided by trips, and is most
interesting as a trifecta play. Box Tates Creek, Islington, Voodoo
Dancer, Bien Nicole, Riskaverse. Double up with first 4, again with
first 3. ($90 play with $1 tickets.) B.
7th Juvenile—Cuvee is the best horse by quite a bit, if he runs his race.
Race For Glory and Minister Eric both have good figures, and the
advantage of being locally based. Box Cuvee, Race For Glory,
Minister Eric, double up with Cuvee on top. B.
8th Turf—Storming Home has run well enough in every race this year to
win this unless he gets a bad trip. But the value is The Tin Man, who is
as good or better than anyone else, is ready for a big one, and will be a
price. The Tin Man to Win at 8-1 or more, BIG exacta under Storming
Home. Trifecta Part Wheel—Storming Home WITH All WITH The
Tin Man. B+.
9th This is a dynamic field, but Congaree has the homecourt advantage,
tactical speed, and a series of huge numbers, and is primed for this.
Pick 3—Races 7, 8, 9—Cuvee, Race For Glory, Minister Eric WITH
Storming Home, The Tin Man WITH Congaree. Double up Cuvee,
Storming Home. If not live Congaree to Win at 4-1 or more. B+.
10th Turf—Tiz Royalty ran a top 1st turf. A pair puts her right there and she
could improve. Win at 4-1 or more. B.
11th Favored Redattore concedes enough weight to make him vulnerable
even if he runs his best on dirt. Play against. Box Fleetstreet Dancer,
Nose The Trade, Taste Of Paradise. B.
Sap3
12th Turf—Atticus Forever races sparingly, but when he races, he runs
tops. Rested, he’s eligible to develop even more. Win at 5-1 or more.
B+.
Letters rank the handicapper’s assessment of today’s races with A being
the strongest selections, B not as strong, C less so, etc. If minimum odds
for the selection are given, then the grade for that race will go up as the
odds increase.

[Valuist]

I saw the T-Graph sheets yesterday and used them as a supplement but it did cost me money in the Mile. Before getting the T-Graph, I thought Six Perfections was a solid contender but her T-Graph numbers were not competitive vs the other contenders. That and the outer post was enough to make me toss her. I also saw Musical Chimes had very weak numbers in Europe before running a big number in her SA prep. I still believe their U.S. turf numbers are solid, but I question how good the Euro numbers are.

Agree re: Frankel and layoffs. Look at the Triple Crown races; guys like Baffert, Lukas and Zito have all worked and raced their horses hard before the Derby and it toughened them up. That's not Frankel's style, and as good as he is in regular stakes, his Breeder's Cup (2 for 57) and Triple Crown (1 win) record is not good.

[cj]

Yep, the Triple Crown and Breeder's Cup races. These are THE BIG DAY's for racing, period. You are not getting a 6 horse G1 win in any of them, where 3 are only in the race to pick up a check. You have to be fast, fit, and peaking. Being fresh for these races just doesn't cut it! Funny how Frankel was willing to go against the Sheets when he thought Funny Cide might be DQed from the Derby win with the ridiculous Santos episode. I honestly think part of Frankel's problem is he just has too many G1 type horses and can't race them into shape without facing each other and ticking off the owners. He is playing a great game of dodge ball. Think he's having second thoughts about running Wild Spirit and Ghostzapper now?

[SAL]

I got a kick out of seeing Seabiscuits PP's, and how he raced 3 times in 15 days right before winning the Big Cap for the last time. That's not something you'll see today, for sure.

[Fastracehorse]

Frankel is a very cautious trainer.

His owners allow him to back out of a race if something isn't right. He trains as to not hurt the animal - isn't he a student of Whittingham?? His moto is: If there is any doubt - back off.

Races take something out of horses. If Frankel had it his way he would never race them and have the G-1 trophies Fed- Ex'd to his racing office.

fffastt

[delayjf]

Perhaps Frankel needs to be more aggressive approaching the TC and the BC, nothing wrong with a prep race. But on the other hand Lukas and Baffert run their horses into the ground.

Speaking of bouncing, I loved Pleasantly Perfect and how he was coming into this race. His last race was good, but not his best effort and his best was competitive with this field. Watching "the works" show, many were predicting a bounce for this horse, I saw it the other way around.

[Whalebone]

Originally posted by delayjf
Perhaps Frankel needs to be more aggressive approaching the TC and the BC, nothing wrong with a prep race. But on the other hand Lukas and Baffert run their horses into the ground.

Speaking of bouncing, I loved Pleasantly Perfect and how he was coming into this race. His last race was good, but not his best effort and his best was competitive with this field. Watching "the works" show, many were predicting a bounce for this horse, I saw it the other way around.

Being new here and a tad under-educated, can someone explain what a bounce is and the theory behind it? Thanks in advance.

[delayjf]

The bounce is a handicapping theory started by Ragozin that claims that a horse will usually follow a top performance (figure wise) with a sub-par performance due to the fact that the top effort takes something out of a horse and that it may take a few races before the horse gets back to his peak level. Ragozins book, "the odds must be crazy" goes into this topic in depth.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Whalebone
Being new here and a tad under-educated, can someone explain what a bounce is and the theory behind it? Thanks in advance.

Joe Cardillo has a good chapter on bounces in Speed to Spare .

http://store.drf.com/acb/showdetl.cfm?&DID=7&user_id=4006587&st=8326&st2=-79067276&st3=-68874780&Product_ID=1660&CATID=18&objectgroup_ID=460

Here's a link to a thread on the book. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5565