Mike Welsch's derby report

[Stillriledup]

I know there must be a legit reason, but does anyone know why Welsch shows a video of him talking about the workouts instead of just showing them?

I don't know about you, but i'd rather see the workout myself than someone talking about it.

[098poi]

It's probably best to put this one to sleep and wait a few years. Then bring it up again.

[Robert Fischer]

I know there must be a legit reason, but does anyone know why Welsch shows a video of him talking about the workouts instead of just showing them?

I don't know about you, but i'd rather see the workout myself than someone talking about it.

good question.

some of these works have been unscheduled or out of town works, but no excuse not to show the churchill works 4/27 or so on.

it really should be coordinated with scheduled times and track priority for derby entrants(and waiting video crews). Even as it is now, there needs to be early am coverage.

Apparently there is some film, because of cuts shown on kentuckyderby.com.

The graded derby preps should also be available in high def(at least 720).
Understand the lower rate format for the general archive videos of other races, but the high-def videos should be readily available somewhere as a feature for TC PREPS.

[calltopost]

Does Mike Welsch have a Twitter of Facebook page?

[Tom]

Everyone wants to be a talking head.

[calltopost]

Everyone wants to be a talking head.

Welsch spotted AK pretty well before the big show. I was wondering if he will have his eye on the Preakness field too. I liked his commentary.

[Plain Steve]

Everyone wants to be a talking head.

For the second time in two days, your unique perspective has given me a good laugh, kudos!

[trackrat59]

Mike Welsch is one of the best in the business at watching works and deciphering what's what. If he's not "The Dude", he's one of the top 2-3 Dudes at the very least.

I would like to watch the works too but I would much rather listen to Mike's analysis of them. He's golden.

[calltopost]

I would like to watch the works too but I would much rather listen to Mike's analysis of them.

So - does he have his own Facebook/Twitter/blog etc? Or is he just a DRF guy that shows up here and there?

[trackrat59]

So - does he have his own Facebook/Twitter/blog etc? Or is he just a DRF guy that shows up here and there?

He's a DRF guy. He does the works for the Derby and the BC. He has no Facebook page that I know of. He's been with DRF for numerous years. He lives in FL and covers Gulfstream and Calder.

Count him in when preparing for the KY Derby and the BC.

[Grits]

So - does he have his own Facebook/Twitter/blog etc? Or is he just a DRF guy that shows up here and there?

He's not on Facebook and he's not on Twitter?

So, the guy can't be much?

This is hilarious stuff.:lol:

EDIT. To add you did like his commentary; that's a good thing!!

[LemonSoupKid]

Mike Welsch is one of the best in the business at watching works and deciphering what's what. If he's not "The Dude", he's one of the top 2-3 Dudes at the very least.

I would like to watch the works too but I would much rather listen to Mike's analysis of them. He's golden.

Yes, indeed, he is good.

Anyone know anyone reliable for watching works at or around Pimlico?

[Irish Boy]

I swear to God I don't understand some of you sometimes. He does a thing where he says who looks good training and who doesn't. He seems to do a good job, since he's been accurate quite often (he said Mine That Bird looked good, and he said that about AK as well, at minimum).

But that's not enough! Does he do it every day? Does he give me a constant stream of free information? Because if not, I'm going to bitch and moan like a 15 year old girl who waited all night by the phone for Brad to call when he was out with his loser friends at the mall.

Seriously, people. He's paid to talk about how well horses are training before the Derby. He's done a good job of that. You still complain. Ever stop to think that people that whine and moan about EVERY SINGLE ASPECT OF HORSE RACING are a teensy weensie part of why new fans aren't anxious about joining? "This free, accurate information isn't free or accurate enough! waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"

[eastie]

Mike Welsch is one of the best in the business at watching works and deciphering what's what. If he's not "The Dude", he's one of the top 2-3 Dudes at the very least.

I would like to watch the works too but I would much rather listen to Mike's analysis of them. He's golden.


He's a cool guy , but if you base your opinion on his workout opinions as a whole, his hosses usually run lousy. maybe one of the 10 or 12 hosses he says are working well have won the derby on occasion, but generally he's wrong. Maybe you should read what he was saying about Uncle Mo....his overall record on the derby and the breeders cup has been poor.

[lamboguy]

what is interesting is that GARY YOUNG, a private clocker i believe, ranted about ANIMAL KINGDOM before the race, saying that the horse WILL IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. it was a great $45 call. he is probably the reason whey the tricks came back real light with those horses that ran 1-2-3. i knew something more about the horse than most, and i didn't play him at all. what i am saying is that some clockers can pick up on things that even the rider or the trainer don't know. probably YOUNG saw him move on conventional dirt and a few times and watched him get better and better and then the horse ran a huge race. ANIMAL KINGDOM is now being watched by everyone, so if he is training good he will be less than 2-1 for the preakness.

[LemonSoupKid]

He's a cool guy , but if you base your opinion on his workout opinions as a whole, his hosses usually run lousy. maybe one of the 10 or 12 hosses he says are working well have won the derby on occasion, but generally he's wrong. Maybe you should read what he was saying about Uncle Mo....his overall record on the derby and the breeders cup has been poor.

The key is to use your own handicapping skills in conjunction with Welsch's reports. I know he makes a pick and this year it was Soldat, but he didn't have much to say about Soldat in comparison to horses like AK, Shackleford and maybe Dialed In (but he was reserved about his stride and energy). He said Soldat liked the cool air and tended to get hot (as in Florida).

The point is that he's not wrong or right. If you go back and look, be honest, and give credit where it's due solely on what he said horses looked like while working, he said Animal Kingdom and Shackleford were the best. Now using that information was extremely helpful in creating winning tri and super tickets.

No doubt about it.

[eastie]

It's the whole body of work, not just this year. It's a tough thing to do, if it was easy, a lot more peeps would do it. I just don't remember him being right very often on the big days. Nothing personal.

[Grits]

Mike Welsch is good at his job. Very good.

Not having to be anywhere, as in 8 to 5, its good to be able to watch the works leading up to the Derby and to hear the reports on TV, read the reports online.

An interesting note followed in the days after nationwide tv was interrupted with "breaking news" broadcasting the death of Bin Laden . . . . FaceBook and Twitter went off the charts in those hours--more posts, more tweets than at any other time since both were created. (This probably accounted for the "flash crowd" of 20 somethings in front of the White House.)

Yes, this game needs new fans, but one's success with it may be limited if their direction for handicapping information leans towards FaceBook and Twitter.

There are no shortcuts for handicapping success.

[calltopost]

Grits, IrishBoy:

I don't even know how you managed to find things to criticize in this pre-Derby thread that I resurrected (so that I could find out how to most effectively follow Welsch's reports) but you both sound like idiots.

[Grits]

Grits, IrishBoy:

I don't even know how you managed to find things to criticize in this pre-Derby thread that I resurrected (so that I could find out how to most effectively follow Welsch's reports) but you both sound like idiots.

I beg your pardon, I didn't write anything but my opinion on Mike Welsch and the report regarding Twitter and FaceBook. The same goes for my opinion of the two as an aid to handicapping. If that's irritated you, I'm as sorry as can be. Your lack of maturity is indicated by your use of ugly names, young man.

I assure you I'm not an idiot. And don't you ever call me one again.

Welcome, and enjoy Pace Advantage. I hope you understand, I don't see your problem.

[Irish Boy]

Grits, IrishBoy:

I don't even know how you managed to find things to criticize in this pre-Derby thread that I resurrected (so that I could find out how to most effectively follow Welsch's reports) but you both sound like idiots.
Cool story bro.

[Producer]

What it all boils down to is morning workouts are only a small part of the equation. Some horses are good work horses. Some aren't. Watching a 4f or 5f workout doesn't tell you that much when the horse is preparing to go 1 1/4. I've always felt watching workouts are a better way of trying to figure out if a horse is off as opposed to trying to pick a winner.

Even with the synthetic horses. Lots of Syn/Turf horses work well on dirt. Not many of them run the same in the afternoon when it counts.

[calltopost]

Some horses are good work horses. Some aren't.

Nehro is like that I think - doesn't work great. Master of Hounds had disappointing work too but still went well and looks to improve.

[plainolebill]

Maybe Master of Hounds is another Little Current - we'll find out.

[Turf Sonic]

Just to give you all a case in point, the morning work "opinions" can work for you and against you. I've been 'capping the Derby for 30 years and have had a lot of good scores though I've missed the last five until this year. I am generally of the opinion (like many others) that feels the winner typically works well leading up to the race. Late friday night I was all set with my bets which were keyed around Soldat and AK equally. My next key was Nehro. But around 2:00am as I was scouring every last minutia of information I became focused on the general opinion that Nehro's works did not look very good. So I switched one of my $6 exact boxes from 16-17-19 to 1-16-17. In other words I got off Nehro and onto Arch3 and it cost me a cool $1,000. I can't recall if it was Welsch's report specifically that swayed me but I did read it more than once. Fortunately I still had $20W on AK and a $5 exacta box of who I thought were the best longshot closers (1-2-16-19) thinking all front runners should get cooked so it was a good day. But it could have been a lot better.