How did you do on BC day? Tell the truth

[timtam]

I'd like to know how the handicappers on this board did on Breeders Cup. Actual money bet and actual winnings and no hindsight handicapping. Money passing from your hands to the track and then back to you. I didn't do too well so I guess I'm looking for some other losers !!

[railbird]

Although my posted picks and real money picks were some what different , I actually had a lot of action but either got split on my exacts or had a good price winner without a payoff .( I only play exactas)

Still in all , I got CREAMED..!!!!!!!!!!!!

[railbird]

I got to get a new hobby....this sucks

[Zaf]

I am getting killed so far. The only thing I had all day was win on Johar and I bearly got that.

Looking for value in the classic.

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

HMMM Volponi 16-1, have to take a shot here.

ZAFONIC

[Zaf]

Wrong value horse :mad:

ZAFONIC

[SAL]

Got shut out this year, but that's no surprise. Fortunately, I bet very lightly on BC Day, so I'm not losing too much. Might be some big totals in the BC contest with all the prices.

[railbird]

Had 3 heart breakers today;

ashdod /halfbridaled ...one way......DUH

cajun beat / shake you ....... split

finally the straw that broke my back

johar /falbrev.................split again

really hard to cap these races .:(

[formula_2002]

I LOST BUT 1 RACE

[Zaf]

Bubbles , you don't need to tally my score.

Just put up the goose egg for me 0 :(

ZAFONIC

[Dave Schwartz]

I had an excellent day.


10/25/03 SA 03 D 8.50fst f2 GR- # 4 13.07
10/25/03 SA 03 D 8.50fst f2 GR- # 6 8.74

10/25/03 SA 04 T 8.00fm 3u GR- # 6 6.10
10/25/03 SA 04 T 8.00fm 3u GR- #14 18.40

10/25/03 SA 05 D 6.00fst 3u GR- # 8 14.20 12.60

10/25/03 SA 06 T10.00fm f3u GR- # 1 5.00
10/25/03 SA 06 T10.00fm f3u GR- #12 17.00

10/25/03 SA 07 D 8.50fst 2 GR- # 8 17.80
10/25/03 SA 07 D 8.50fst 2 GR- #10 8.80

10/25/03 SA 08 T12.00fm 3u GR- # 7 13.30
10/25/03 SA 08 T12.00fm 3u GR- # 9 13.20 13.60 9.00

10/25/03 SA 09 D10.00fst 3u GR- # 2 14.20 30.40 9.60
10/25/03 SA 09 D10.00fst 3u GR- # 6 13.90



Wagered to win only, except in the 5th when I bet win/place.

Got a nice break in the 5th, as I made my bet and later decided to add another horse but was shut out. <G> Had I wagered on two horses to win I would have not made the place bet on that horse.

The 8th was an agonizing deadheat. I really thought I was going to get 2nd in that race.


Dave Schwartz

[SAL]

Oh yeah Bubbles, save your time with my BC picks too.... 0.00

[Larry Hamilton]

I lost big on Sight Seeks, nibbled all day and finished up down $30

[Hammerhead]

Had 1 exacta for 126.00 2 more chump winners. Threw clever wagering I managed to lose it all on the 9th when the 2 showed up and killed it all.

:o

[gene]

bubbles had my odds at 20 to 1, real underlay.
lost 700 of the mythical 1000 dollers

lucky for me I couldn't get to the hilton book in reno. no real bets!

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by SAL
Oh yeah Bubbles, save your time with my BC picks too.... 0.00

Ditto...$0.00


Thank God for Beulah (Sounds like a good title for a sitcom :>)

[karlskorner]

Welcome back to the "WIN ONLY" group, I just knew you couldn't stay away to long. A man that can pick a $103.00 horse at Saratoga knows where the money is.

[Speed Figure]

I did well in the contest & in real life betting. I only played pick 3's and pick 4's. I miss the pick 4 when Pleasantly Perfect got the win. I bet $772 in the contest. The pick 6 & the other pick 4 i played did not count. They were past the deadline.

Bet $772/Hit $1 Pick 3 =$2220

$2200 - $772 = + $1448 for the contest.
:D :cool:

[Tom]

I messed up in the contest - mis-typed my tri box in the Distaff as 1/5/6/7 when I meant 2/5/6/7. Luckily, I made the right bet and caught a tri for $2034!
Came right back in the Juv F with another tri - 5/6/8/14 box for a $686.20 hit.
Later caught a $10 place on Ashado - paid $11.60 for $58 return.

$2778 day on bets of just under $1,000.
Studic typing cost me the contest, but cash makes it feel better
:p

[Topcat]

2/8 but more importantly lost money-not my best day.
TC

[Pace Cap'n]

Cashed one ticket but turned a profit.

R8: 9 / 3-8 / 3-8

If Johar had a slightly longer nose I wouldn't have had to split the tri. But I'll take it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom,

Actually, I wish I had been playing exactas. I almost bet the last race one... which paid $140 and would/acoulda had the $760 in the 5th.

But, alas, I just don't have much confidence that the BC is a "business-as-usual" day. I decided to bet small and enjoy the event.

Dave

PS: In case anyone doubts my veracity (I know, but it HAS happened before) here is a link to my plays as they went live today.

http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/000917.html

[cj]

Santa Anita # 2 $5 Exacta BX,3,7 lost $10.00
Santa Anita # 3 $10 Win/Place 3 lost $20.00
Santa Anita # 5 $1 Trifecta BX,2,6,11,13 lost $24.00
Santa Anita # 5 $20 Win 11 won $476.00
Santa Anita # 6 $10 Exacta 1,WT,6,7 lost $20.00
Santa Anita # 6 $10 Exacta 6,7,WT,1 lost $20.00
Santa Anita # 7 $10 Win 11 lost $10.00
Santa Anita # 8 $10 Exacta BX,3,4 lost $20.00
Santa Anita # 9 $1 Trifecta BX,3,8,10 lost $6.00
Santa Anita # 9 $1 Trifecta BX,3,8,10 lost $6.00


Unlike most years, I didn't really see a lot of big overlays. I came into the day thinking I'd bet Cajun Beat, Peace Rules, and Medaglia D'Oro as my big horses. The odds on Peace Rules were way too low (Ishould have known, Suff told me they would be) and same for MDO. I should have went more on Cajun Beat I guess, but I just didn't have a good feel for the races today. All in all a good day, but for the Breeder's Cup, I was hoping for more. I think its Mike Pizzola that says let the bet make you, and I just didn't see a lot today. Bet small for me, even on the one I really liked at a good price.

[chrisg]

I came out ahead. But in fact, I'm miserable! I'm fortunate, but not lucky!

I went into the day knowing there was two races I was going to play and I did.

The Mile & the FMTurf.

L’Ancresse just didn't quite get there. Heartbreaking. That was a tough one for me to take.


Hope you took the time to at least enjoy the races aside from the betting.

[CapperLou]

Had My Best BC Year Ever!!

R1 Elloluv Win Lost

R2 Victory USA Win Lost

R3 Touch of the Blues Win & Place 9.80PL

R4 Shake You Down Win Lost

R5 L'Ancresse Win & Place 32.60PL
Ex Box with Islington Won $1 Ex 4-11 212.40

R6 Tiger Hunt Lost

R7 High Chaparral Win Won 6.40Win

R8 Pleasantly Perfect Win & Place 30.40W 9.60PL
Ex Box with Medaglia D'Oro Won $1 Ex 2-8 70.00

This was a miraculous day even with 46-1 L'Ancress losing by a neck!! If this one had won--Wow!!!

Hope some other board members had an even better day!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[so.cal.fan]

I didn't attend and didn't bet.......but gosh, I wish I wouldn't have been such a negative coward........my friend's barn (Mandella) had 4 WINNERS!!!!!
I wouldn't have wagered much on them, but I'm sure I would have put a little something on them. It was fun rooting them home, even on the poor NBC coverage.
It wasn't as hot as it has been today, and although it looked clear, we still had falling ashes from the fire.
However......I was sure wrong about the fresh Euro shippers, they were awesome.....sure outclassed us.
Congratulations to all who had winners today, you earned them!:)

[WINMANWIN]

I failed in pick 3's in the contest and with real cash. I did bet
$20 on a head to head earlier in the day, as I just felt like it :rolleyes: As FUNNYCIDE RAN next to last, but he did BEAT Volponi who was LAST. Easy Game....Give me head to heads daily
:confused: Got caught up with FRANKEL to much, He certainly wont Enjoy is HONEYMOON :D If only I was a Mandella fan Today ;)

[cj]

WIN,

Skipping the War Room on the Big Day? You will need a note from your doctor at the Toga trip excusing your absence!

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Tom
I messed up in the contest - mis-typed my tri box in the Distaff as 1/5/6/7 when I meant 2/5/6/7. Luckily, I made the right bet and caught a tri for $2034!
Came right back in the Juv F with another tri - 5/6/8/14 box for a $686.20 hit.
Later caught a $10 place on Ashado - paid $11.60 for $58 return.

$2778 day on bets of just under $1,000.
Studic typing cost me the contest, but cash makes it feel better
:p

Yes Tom,

Studic typing :p

Great handicapping dude !!!, you seem to rise to the occasion on these big days, eg. FL contest. Good job.

ZAFONIC

[COUGAR]

BC day..... Well i hit just one winner HIGH C #3, in the 8th. That darn dead heat that lowered my mutual. Minus 60% roi for SA. Thank god for simulcasting. I ended up +16% roi for the day...

COUGAR

[Zaf]

Originally posted by COUGAR
BC day..... Well i hit just one winner HIGH C #3, in the 8th. That darn dead heat that lowered my mutual. Minus 60% roi for SA. Thank god for simulcasting. I ended up +16% roi for the day...

COUGAR

Lowered your mutual, I had Johar (14-1) :eek:

ZAFONIC

[LutherCalvin]

I didn't lose a cent. I had one winner in 8 races and that was a dead heat. Of course, I didn't bet. I watched the TV coverage on NBC and TVG. The Breeder's Cup races defy normal handicapping. My friend's sister in law won over $500 and didn't even watch the races. She picked her winners by name only and had her brother-in-law bet at the off track site. She said, "How can you not bet on a horse named Adoration?"

[lsbets]

I hit 3 out of 8 on top today - Cajun Beat, Islington, and High Chapperal. Would have been a good day, but I went into it planning to shoot for some big payouts, so I played a lot of supers and P-3's and 4s. Lost all of those, ended up down.

My wife picked numbers out of a bowl. She hit the exacta in the first race and ended up about $170. That figures.

[Tom]

"studic" typing?

D'OH! :mad:

[tanda]

I had the Halfbridled-Ashado exacta and Cajun Beat to win.

My ROI was over 2.25.

I did not handicap the races very much (other than being a close follower of stakes racing throught the year). I did not look at the PPs until a few minutes before post.

I used Ashado to win and as an exacta-as-place because she was #1 in Prime Power.

I used Cajun Beat because he had the best combined early pace and speed figures in his last race.

Top class stakes races often send top figure horses postward at longshot prices. Funny Cide, War Emblem and Charismatic all had top or near top last race Beyers.

If that is the case, then bet the figures and take the big odds.

[kingfin66]

I was down almost $300 going into the Classic. In the Classic I bet $20 win on Pleasantly Perfect. I also played a $5 exacta part wheel 2/7-8-9. The exacta paid $70.00 X 5. The win ticket paid $30.40 X 10. Unfortunately, Dynever screwed me out of my trifecta (2-7-8-9 box) when he nipped Congaree at the wire.

My heartbreak race was the Sprint. I loved the 8, Bluesthestandard. He got blocked briefly coming out of the turn, and by the time he had an opening on the rail it was too late.

I was terrible on the turf races and should really stop playing them until I figure them out.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I told itbets I liked his wife's picks! My contest picks returned $760.00; Bailey rode like a muddy NY track and made me lose!! LOL!! Although I did not have time to do any handicapping or real betting, I always bet Johar for real ITM when I can. I thought the juvies and classic would be too unpredictable. Both the dirt and turf tracks were slowed by SA pars but were still fairly fast as far as I was concerned. Jocks and trainers who were not fooled by the track did well!

[keilan]

I wagered on every race but didn't cash a decent ticket until the 5th
Cajun Beat, got me started in the right direction. 8th race Johar -- cashed very nicely on a win-place and exactor. Race 9 bet win/place on Chinkapin and collect the place money only and then in the 12 race hit a smaller 6/9 exactor Gold Sphinx over Six Numbers. Result for the day $250 in the wrong direction.

What did I learn today:

1) When the temperature and air conditions are like they were today, handicapping becomes extremely difficult and horses who disperse their energy in a more gradual manner even at a track as fast as Santa Antia are advantaged. I know this observation in no-way explains the performances of Adoration in the Distaff or Cajun Beat in the Sprint but I think it has merit on some of the other races on the card.

2) Scratchy sure knows how to build a ticket --wink wink.

3) Bubbles and supporting cast run a great little contest. The only reason I didn't get in was I didn't want any distractions today -yep I thought I was gonna make some loot today --no such luck.

Congrats Speed Figure!

[Topcat]

Timtam:

Bear in mind that just asking the question will build in a bias. People who did not do well are not inclined to post.

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Knowing full well that races like this aren't really my strong suit, I treaded lightly....

Total Bets, $260
Total Return $217

Take away my $32 Pick6 ticket (hey, you can't win it if you're not in it), and I'm calling it a push.

I'm reasonably pleased with the plays I made. The horses I had pegged as strong value generally ran pretty well, even if they didn't win. If Dynever, Touch of the Blues, or Ashado run one spot better, I'm washing down Filet Mignon with Glenfiddich.

MP

[MV McKee]

I would have done better had I spread a bit further in a few races.
I had 4 strong opinions on the day:
Distaff: No Play

Juv Fillies: Didn't like Halfbridled
Oh well

Mile:
Made a large play combining
Touch of the Blues
Century City
Irish Warrior
Designed for Luck

Nada, close, but still nada

Sprint: No Play

Filly Turf:
Large plays involving Megahertz

Damnit!

Juv:
Large plays involving Action This Day

Small win bet, primarily used on the back end of various exotics, and in triples, 2 of which were already dead.

Turf:
No play other than Triples

Classic:
Large plays involving Pleasantly Perfect

No win money, again primarily back end of exotics. I was
alive at the time to 2X High Chapparal and 1X Johnar

Ended up cashing on the triples.
Not much of a profit day though, as I had not hit anything prior other than a $50 win on Action This Day.

Should have had the Super in the Mile, but elected not to cover the French Filly when she pitched such a fit at the gate.
Dumb move on my part.
Basically, I bailed myself out, but the ROI is nuthin' to brag about.

I basically played the Cal-based horses, provided they had the relative ability. Seemed an important edge given the conditions.

[Red Knave]

My posted picks went 0'fer.
At the track I had a saver on Action This Day (it paid $45 in the Woodbine pools, $10 less than at the track) and the exactor in the Classic (which also paid less).
Then I went home, had myself a Manhattan and shared a pizza with my wife.
Like they say, a bad day at the track is better than a good day ANYWHERE else.
This game is better than Baseball!
;)

[Niko]

Luckily my biggest bet of the day was Cajun Beat. Cashed a couple doubles and pick 3's with him. If Touch of Blues had won it would've been a huge day (for me) as I would've had a couple more. Couldn't cash an exacta but was very close on a number of them.
Beats last year when I almost got shut out of cashing a ticket.

[blind squirrel]

lost $100....my tri wheel CLASSIC:

PLEASANTLY PERFECT DYNEVER
PLEASANTLY PERFECT DYNEVER
MEDAGLIO D' ORO PERFECT DRIFT CONGAREE VOLPONI HOLD THAT TIGER.....OH WELL.

IF YOU THINK YOU HAD A BAD DAY,CONSIDER FRANKEL
AND GARY STEVENS,HE NEARLY WENT DOWN ON MUSICAL CHIMES.

[ceejay]

Had a decent day. Up about $11 net. Winning win tickets included Action this day and pleasently perfect. Winning exactas were the Juvy Filleys and Classic.

Regrets were that I was two of 3 on couple of huge P3's. I should have also cashed tri's or supers (if I had bet them) in the classic and Juvy colts.

[Rick]

Nada enchilada. Fortunately I didn't bet anything on it. I don't like the big races much anymore to bet on but I guess I'm a little ahead on them overall. I LOVE cheap claimers though and there are a lot more of them.

[keenang]

I HAD ONE STINKING WINNER AND THAT WAS IN A DEAD HEAT.THE WORST B.C. I HAVE EVER HAD.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR.
GENE

[brdman12]

Lucky for me I had to work Saturday and had no real money bet. I scored a zero in the contest Bubbles....you don't want that imaginary $1000.00 back i hope. Although I am let down a bit by the races, these races do not represent the kinds of races that we look at and bet on a more regular basis.

[cato]

I have a repeating theme on Breeders Cup.

I look at the races and say "Almost every horse has a chance to win each race, so Im gonna pass or bet about $2 a race. No one in theri right mind would bet seriouisly on these rcaes. Thank God I'm an experienced handicapper and know when to pass...ho hum"

Then I enter some crazy contest that causes me to look again and spend more time on it and then I start forming some opinions and then large trifects and exactas start dancing in my head like sugar plums and then in a wild crazed frenzy, with foam dripping down my mouth I bet like a crazed manic-depressive in his manic phase only to wake up a few hours later with worthless tickets scattered about the room.....depressed:cool:

I think its a "hangover" from my old days of excess

But today was back to normal...and good and profitable.

[GR1@HTR]

Made $ for the first time on the BC. Plus $1600 ish...

10/25/03 SAX 10 $16 Trifecta 6,9 / 4,6,9 / 1-4,6,9 ------ $220.50
10/25/03 SAX 9 $6 Exacta 4,5,8 (BOXED) ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 9 $8 Trifecta 5,8 / 5,8 / 1,4,7,10 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 9 $8 Trifecta 5,8 / 1,4,7,10 / 5,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 9 $16 Trifecta 4,8 / 4,7,8 / 3,4,6-9 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 9 $18 Superfecta 5,8 / 5,8 / 1,4,10 / 1,4,7,10 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 8 $16 Trifecta 4,8 / 4,8,9 / 4-9 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $6 Exacta 2,6,12 (BOXED) ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $16 Trifecta 6,12 / 6,8,12 / 6-10,12 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $18 Superfecta 12 / 6,10 / 2 / 1-12 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $18 Superfecta 12 / 6,10 / 1-12 / 2 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $36 Superfecta 2,12 / 2,12 / 6,10 / 1-12 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $6 Pick-3 12 / 3,4,8 / 5,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $8 Pick-3 12 / 3-5,8 / 5,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $15 Pick-3 12 / 3,4,8 / 1,4,5,8,10 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 7 $24 Pick-3 2,6,10,12 / 3,4,8 / 5,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 6 $4 Exacta 3,6 / 3,6,12 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 6 $16 Trifecta 6,7 / 6,7,12 / 3,6-9,12 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 6 $21 Pick-3 1,2,4-7,10 / 12 / 3,4,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 6 $84 Pick-3 1,2,4-7,10 / 2,6,10,12 / 3,4,8 ------ $379.50
10/25/03 SAX 6 $48 Pick-4 1,2,4-7,10,12 / 12 / 3,4,8 / 5,8 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 5 $24 Trifecta 6,11 / 2,5,6,11 / 2-6,11 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 4 $42 Pick-3 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 11 / 1,2,4-6,10,12 ------ $627.80
10/25/03 SAX 4 $192 Pick-3 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 2,5,6,11 / 1,2,4-7,10,12 ------ $627.80
10/25/03 SAX 3 $24 Trifecta 4,6 / 4-6,8 / 4-6,8,12,14 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 3 $6 Pick-3 14 / 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 11 ------ $658.30
10/25/03 SAX 3 $12 Pick-3 4,6 / 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 11 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 3 $24 Pick-3 4-6,8 / 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 11 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 3 $48 Pick-3 4,6 / 3,6,9,11,13,14 / 2,5,6,11 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 2 $20 Win 5 ------ $0.00
10/25/03 SAX 2 $4 Exacta 1,5 / 1,5,7 ------ $0.00

[ceejay]

GR1,

Looks like your key was Cajun Beat. Nice pick.

[tanda]

Cajun Beat was popular here. With good pace and speed figures, he probably does well with the software. I bet because he had top BRIS E2 + Speed.

Much like War Emblem, strong on figures, dismissed by the "experts". Except for Andy Beyer.

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah, Cajun Beat had top pace/speed figs...But what I liked just as well was that he was an improving 3yr old with more potential to improve than any other in the field. Also scored well with the 2yr old closer (don't know the name of the horse) that paid $50 somthing....Was hoping for bigger prices in the other legs for more $$.

[Valuist]

Bizarre Santa Anita day for me; I hit the exacta in the first, the Pic 3 in the races after the Breeder's Cup, the Pie N Burger/Chinkapin exacta, then lost every single bet on the Breeder's Cup card. And I started handicapping the BC races a week before and didn't even look at the other SA races until Saturday morning.

BTW, a nice performance from the Illinois-bred Chinkapin in that $150,000 SA stake.

[Doug]

I had the $83.00 winner and the $55.00 winner.

Just bet win only.

Doug

[HTRFGuy]

Distaff - Adoration - $83.40 winner
AM line 20:1; My HTRF Odds 12:1
Highest Ranked by HTRF among Overlays

Turf - Johar - Dead Heat - $13.60
Top ranked by HTRF
AM LIne 8:1; My HTRF Odds 3.2:1

Classic - Pleasantly Perfect - $30.60
Ranked Second by HTRF
AM Line 10:1; My HTRF Odds 5.7:1

Nothing Else of Consequence...

HTRF Output at http://www.htrf.com

[delayjf]

Caught Plesantly Perfect to give me a nice profit on the day.
The one that got away was Cajun Beat, it was between him and Valid Video, guess who I went with. I considered Johar but thought he'd get burned up in the pace.

I thought I saw a speed bias on the Friday card, but I think the track was fair all day. Most speed horses seemed to get hurt by the pace of the race than the track itself.

[socantra]

Won with Stellar in the 1st (pre Cup) race, then lost with Get Koko in the 2nd and Touch of the Blues and Century City in the 4th.

Right before the 4th, friends came by with beer and pizza, so I shut Brisbet down and we consumed mass quantities and watched the rest of the Cup. Great races.

I'd already told them I wouldn't be seriously "working" the Cup because I'm confused by that many good horses in one place, and I refuse to even try with company around.

I did real well when I finished capping the card later that night, but I've found knowing the winner in advance improves my performance considerably.

socantra......

[sam i am]

Hit the 1st 2 races a Bel I loved the Goldberg/Danzing 1st timer in the 1st was up about $300 going into BC. had alot of close calls and a lot of fun.