Derby Betting Strategy

[Midnight Cruiser]

Lets say I have narrowed my Derby contenders to 5 possible winners:

Soldat, Master of Hounds, Midnite Interlude, Archx3 and Shackleford. Please offer a betting strategy understanding my stake for this race and surrounding races (pik3s and 4's) is 500. Thanks in advance, and it has been my pleasure to lurk and soak all the info from this great board and you fine punters!

[Spiderman]

Three have a chance to win: Arch3x, Master and Midnite. Connections of Master have not yet decided to run or select a jockey. Let's say Master will run.

Easier if you pick one to win. Undecided, box the exacta with three mentioned; bet trifecta and superfecta part wheels: abc/ abcd/abcde/abcde

Good luck

[Robert Fischer]

Lets say I have narrowed my Derby contenders to 5 possible winners:

Soldat, Master of Hounds, Midnite Interlude, Archx3 and Shackleford. Please offer a betting strategy understanding my stake for this race and surrounding races (pik3s and 4's) is 500. Thanks in advance, and it has been my pleasure to lurk and soak all the info from this great board and you fine punters!

start with the multi race wagers.
- use all of your 5 with the surrounding races
subtract those tickets from your 500.

then look at what you have left

next decide what wagers you wish to play for the derby
construct them and figure costs
subtract that amount from your remaining moneys

next decide which of those tickets looks like the best value.
bet those tickets for multiple dollar units to wager up to your preferred amount.

[keithw84]

next decide which of those tickets looks like the best value.
One thing I often did (and still do) as an inexperienced horse player is to apportion my money based on what I think is more likely rather than what offers the best odds. Need to train myself...

[Midnight Cruiser]

Three have a chance to win: Arch3x, Master and Midnite. Connections of Master have not yet decided to run or select a jockey. Let's say Master will run.

Easier if you pick one to win. Undecided, box the exacta with three mentioned; bet trifecta and superfecta part wheels: abc/ abcd/abcde/abcde

Good luck


Spider: Why no shot with Soldat or the Shack?

[Robert Fischer]

One thing I often did (and still do) as an inexperienced horse player is to apportion my money based on what I think is more likely rather than what offers the best odds. Need to train myself...

right it isn't always intuitive. Also if you started out playing with cash on hand at a track or OTB, their is sometimes a temptation, especially later in the card, to go with what is most likely, in hopes of getting up for that specific day.

[menifee]

Lets say I have narrowed my Derby contenders to 5 possible winners:

Soldat, Master of Hounds, Midnite Interlude, Archx3 and Shackleford. Please offer a betting strategy understanding my stake for this race and surrounding races (pik3s and 4's) is 500. Thanks in advance, and it has been my pleasure to lurk and soak all the info from this great board and you fine punters!

I would take all 5 and then put them in front of a horse that you know will close for second, third or fourth.

For example $1 tri (a,b,c,d,e)/all/f
$ 1 tri (a,b,c,d,e/f/all

If you really like the five then (a,b,c,d,e)/(a,b,c,d,e)/f
$20 for a $1 bet.

If you like supers then $1 super (a,b,c,d,e)/(a,b,c,d,e)/all/f


I think most people can pick out a closer or two that you know will finish in the money or fourth if you like supers. The obvious candidate here is Nehro that just seems to be your stereotypical late closer that will never win, but will always get a piece of the action.

Just my thoughts.

[Bruddah]

Tri part-wheels in Derby fields of 20 usually pay well. I play 6 horses and choose 4 for the win and put the 6 in the place and show. Ex. 1-2-3-4 over 1-2-3-4-5-6 over 1-2-3-4-5-6. This combination gives you 80 ticket combinations = $80 for $1 tri part wheels = $160 for $2 tri part wheels and so on.

You can also play it 6 over 4 over 6, or 6 over 6 over 4. Same costs apply.

I have used this method for everyday play since the early 90's and have been profitable all but one year. 8o tickets in a 20 horse field of combinations is only about 1% of the possibilities. 20x20x20 = 8000 combinations. However in a 8 horse combination it's 8x8x8 = 512 combinations or 15.6% of the combinations.

The trifecta needs only to pay $160 on a $2 ticket to break even.

[Bruddah]

Actually the numbers above are better as percentages of ticket combinations.

The Derby field would actually be 20x19x18= 6840 possibilites and 1.2% of possibilites.

An 8 horse field would be 8x7x6= 336 possibilites and 23.8% of possibilities.

[Spiderman]

Spider: Why no shot with Soldat or the Shack?

Both are need to lead types. Soldat has only run when he had an easy pace and he won't get in KD. Shackelford lead over Soldat in Florida Derby and was very game for the 1 1/8 mile. Connections have been talking about preparing him for Preakness with a shorter distance and sharper turns that favor front-runner. Don't let me talk you out of a 50-1 shot. But neither of these will get any of my bets.

[Midnight Cruiser]

Both are need to lead types. Soldat has only run when he had an easy pace and he won't get in KD. Shackelford lead over Soldat in Florida Derby and was very game for the 1 1/8 mile. Connections have been talking about preparing him for Preakness with a shorter distance and sharper turns that favor front-runner. Don't let me talk you out of a 50-1 shot. But neither of these will get any of my bets.


fair enough