Debut + Last

[gm10]

I was reading an article in the Racing Post Weekender today that explained that you can get a powerful statistic for the 2000 Guineas (=the first English Classic) by simply summing a contender's rating on debut and the rating from its last prep before the Guineas.

Summarized, the article states that a horse needs a summed rating between 190 and 210. Lower than 190 means the quality isn't there. Bigger than 210 invariably means that the debut rating was very high and the horse will not improve much as a 3yo. I think there were 30 contenders that had a summed rating > 210 and 29 of them lost.

Does anyone have a historical set of BSF to run the same method on for the Kentucky Derby? I suppose the interval will need to be reworked a bit for BSF, something like 180-195.

[keithw84]

Using BSFs, here are the sums of debut and final prep for the last 10 Derby winners:

Super Saver: 172
Mine That Bird: 127
Big Brown: 196
Street Sense: 174
Barbaro: 176
Giacomo: 153
Smarty Jones: 191
Funny Cide: 206
War Emblem: 181
Monarchos: 164

[redshift1]

If you assume parity with whatever figures the post used and the Beyer number then it would have identified 3 Derby winners in the last ten years. What does the post use and are these turf races.

Just eyeballing the Derby winners is looks like 190-210 is to high.

[gm10]

If you assume parity with whatever figures the post used and the Beyer number then it would have identified 3 Derby winners in the last ten years. What does the post use and are these turf races.

Just eyeballing the Derby winners is looks like 190-210 is to high.


Racing Post Ratings - turf races.

So the interval should be around 20 points lower (ballpark).
Say 170-190. The interval 172-196 would contain 6 winners, I believe.

More interestingly, though, how many qualifiers are there above, say, 195 and how often did they win?

[Bettowin]

Horses that have names starting with S,M or B have won 7 of the last 10:)