Did Big Brown's Derby Super come up 'light'?

[Stillriledup]

I was checking out the results and charts from the last 4 Derbies and noticed that the Superfecta in the Big Brown year seemed pretty short all things considered. In the Street Sense year, the Tri in that race paid 440 dollars for 2 and yet his super, with a 13th/14th betting choice in 4th, paid 29,000 for 2.

In Big Brown's year, his tri paid 3,400 for 2 and yet his super only paid 58,000 with a big longshot in the 4th spot.

The Super Saver tri paid 2,300 and yet the Super paid 200k for 2, it was 86 times higher than the tri price.

The Street Sense Super was 65 times the Tri price but the Big Brown super was only 17 times the tri price.

BB's super should have paid 100k or more.

[cj]

Be patient, I'm sure this thread will get the attention it deserves.

[Some_One]

I wouldn't expect a big super payout with a heavy (well for the KD) fav on top with a logical 3rd choice in 2nd.

[Tom]

They made up for it in the Belmont payout.

[senortout]

"only" 58,000 is somewhat confusing to some of us reading this...

[Mr_Ed]

IEAH dollars.

And, of course........IMHO!!

[horses4courses]

I was checking out the results and charts from the last 4 Derbies and noticed that the Superfecta in the Big Brown year seemed pretty short all things considered. In the Street Sense year, the Tri in that race paid 440 dollars for 2 and yet his super, with a 13th/14th betting choice in 4th, paid 29,000 for 2.

In Big Brown's year, his tri paid 3,400 for 2 and yet his super only paid 58,000 with a big longshot in the 4th spot.

The Super Saver tri paid 2,300 and yet the Super paid 200k for 2, it was 86 times higher than the tri price.

The Street Sense Super was 65 times the Tri price but the Big Brown super was only 17 times the tri price.

BB's super should have paid 100k or more.

Ancient history.....who really cares?
Who do you like in the 5th at Beulah?

[precocity]

IEAH dollars.

And, of course........IMHO!!
:lol:

[Mr_Ed]

UPS dollars, too.

He was huge amongst those peeps.

All this means the Belmont paid................

IMHO.

[Stillriledup]

Ancient history.....who really cares?
Who do you like in the 5th at Beulah?

So what you're saying is that you dont want anyone to ever investigate a low payoff in horse racing, you want to just say who cares ancient history and worry about tomorrow? I want to know that our tote systems are secure, its tough enough to win as it is, and when you have people skimming the pools, or even fixing races, i want to know about and have it stopped. Its entirely possible that someone legitimately hit this super for a few dollars and scooped half a mil out of the pool, that's fine, but i'd like them to at least look into this stuff and not turn a blind eye.

[Stillriledup]

I wouldn't expect a big super payout with a heavy (well for the KD) fav on top with a logical 3rd choice in 2nd.

But it doesnt matter because that logical third choice created a 3400 dollar tri, that means the tri was a 1,700-1 shot to win, the logical part of those horses was already factored in. The Street Sense Tri paid almost 8 times less than the BB tri and yet BB's super was only double.

[Stillriledup]

UPS dollars, too.

He was huge amongst those peeps.

All this means the Belmont paid................

IMHO.

So then if we investigated all the people who filled out Superfecta IRS forms, we would see quite a few people who were employed at UPS as the winners? That would be interesting to know, don't you think?

[tbwinner]

These are blind pools you're playing into. Big Brown was a big fave so of course if you're using a favorite on top you're going to spread underneath, ESPECIALLY in the Derby.

[Stillriledup]

These are blind pools you're playing into. Big Brown was a big fave so of course if you're using a favorite on top you're going to spread underneath, ESPECIALLY in the Derby.

"Spread"? There's 20 horses, how many people do you think can 'spread' and hit this thing?

I'm just comparing this price to all the other prices for the most recent years and its the only price that stands out as very low. With the pool at 9 million, this should be the most 'efficient' bet out there...its supposed to 'pay what it should'.

If you hit this super for a buck and got 29k, i know for sure you would be looking at the other recent years and saying "i got robbed".

[Mr_Ed]

So then if we investigated all the people who filled out Superfecta IRS forms, we would see quite a few people who were employed at UPS as the winners? That would be interesting to know, don't you think?

What did BB's Belmont pay compared to others?

If it were short in the Derby, it should be equally as long for the Belmont.

[Mr_Ed]

These are blind pools you're playing into. Big Brown was a big fave so of course if you're using a favorite on top you're going to spread underneath, ESPECIALLY in the Derby.

Yup, a fav from :20: slot.

Huge, huge, following.

[Mr_Ed]

Be patient, I'm sure this thread will get the attention it deserves.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Stillriledup]

What did BB's Belmont pay compared to others?

If it were short in the Derby, it should be equally as long for the Belmont.

It doesnt matter because BB's tri in the Derby paid 3,400. The Super Saver Tri paid 2,300 and his super paid 200k. That's what i'm comparing it to.

[Dahoss9698]

Just when you think Stillneverright can't get any worse....he does.

Quite impressive actually.

[horses4courses]

So what you're saying is that you dont want anyone to ever investigate a low payoff in horse racing, you want to just say who cares ancient history and worry about tomorrow? I want to know that our tote systems are secure, its tough enough to win as it is, and when you have people skimming the pools, or even fixing races, i want to know about and have it stopped. Its entirely possible that someone legitimately hit this super for a few dollars and scooped half a mil out of the pool, that's fine, but i'd like them to at least look into this stuff and not turn a blind eye.

I'm with you BUT......why wait this long to bring it up?
A day, week, month, heck....even a few months afterwards, sure, you have my attention. Not now, though.

[Mr_Ed]

Just when you think Stillneverright can't get any worse....he does.

Quite impressive actually.

I fell into the hole..........ROPE PLEASE!!

[Mr_Ed]

I'm with you BUT......why wait this long to bring it up?
A day, week, month, heck....even a few months afterwards, sure, you have my attention. Not now, though.

Not sure, but I think he's an IRS auditor.

[Stillriledup]

I'm with you BUT......why wait this long to bring it up?
A day, week, month, heck....even a few months afterwards, sure, you have my attention. Not now, though.

Ok, good call. Next low price i see, i'll bring it up immediately, You have a fair point.

[Irish Boy]

The truth finally comes out. Eight Belles knew too much.

[castaway01]

It doesnt matter because BB's tri in the Derby paid 3,400. The Super Saver Tri paid 2,300 and his super paid 200k. That's what i'm comparing it to.

So the fact Super Saver was 8-1 and Big Brown was 2-1 didn't have any impact on the difference in superfecta payouts---it was a conspiracy instead? Honestly, your level of logic here is that of someone who has never see or bet on a horse race.

[Stillriledup]

So the fact Super Saver was 8-1 and Big Brown was 2-1 didn't have any impact on the difference in superfecta payouts---it was a conspiracy instead? Honestly, your level of logic here is that of someone who has never see or bet on a horse race.

You don't seem to understand, let me explain this a different way. My point was that the trifecta price is a better barometer of what the super is going to pay (or should pay) than a win price. The fact that BB was 2-1 in the win pool is already factored out of the equasion when his tri paid 1700-1. The win pool and the Tri pool are two different pools, but the tri pool tells you what the public thought of the chances of the top 3 horses running 1-2-3. They told you they thought it was a 1700-1 chance, according to them. The only thing the win pool told you was that BB winning the race was 2-1. The win pool told you nothing of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th positions. In a 20 horse field, what someone paid to win is irrelevant in figuring out his super price.

It also doesnt matter that Super Saver was 8-1 in the win pool because his trifecta was 'easier' to hit than BB's trifecta. It was easier to select the first 3 finishers in the SS derby than it was in the BB derby. The betting public had more dollars on the SS trifecta than they did on the BB trifecta.

As far as the word 'conspiracy' goes, that's a word you used, not me.

[cj]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Amazingly, it did draw some attention.

If stillneverright actually bet, he might remember there was a malfunction and anyone doing quick picks could not get a ticket with Big Brown on it, or something to that effect. Apparently, there were a lot of quick picks too.

[Stillriledup]

Amazingly, it did draw some attention.

If stillneverright actually bet, he might remember there was a malfunction and anyone doing quick picks could not get a ticket with Big Brown on it, or something to that effect. Apparently, there were a lot of quick picks too.

Pretty funny, quickpicks. Ok, maybe that's why the Super paid so small.

What's amazing about it, most of my threads end up gathering 1,000 views or more, its not a shock that this one is also on its way to 1k views. People must want to read what i have to say.

[FenceBored]

Pretty funny, quickpicks. Ok, maybe that's why the Super paid so small.

What's amazing about it, most of my threads end up gathering 1,000 views or more, its not a shock that this one is also on its way to 1k views. People must want to read what i have to say.

The investigation was launched after a bettor at Bay Meadows purchased 1,300 $1 quick picks for the Kentucky Derby superfecta, in which the first four finishers must be listed in exact order on the ticket. The bettor discovered that he did not have the number "20" once among the 5,200 possibilities. The race, of course, was won by Big Brown, who was the number 20.
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/45290/chrb-probes-derby-quick-pick-superfecta#ixzz1KfiXrijF

[Stillriledup]

The investigation was launched after a bettor at Bay Meadows purchased 1,300 $1 quick picks for the Kentucky Derby superfecta, in which the first four finishers must be listed in exact order on the ticket. The bettor discovered that he did not have the number "20" once among the 5,200 possibilities. The race, of course, was won by Big Brown, who was the number 20.
Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/45290/chrb-probes-derby-quick-pick-superfecta#ixzz1KfiXrijF



My point is that if bettors were NOT able to bet on Big Brown, how come the bet paid so small. If anything, this would have made the price higher, no?

[FenceBored]

My point is that if bettors were NOT able to bet on Big Brown, how come the bet paid so small. If anything, this would have made the price higher, no?

Alright, I give in.

It was me.

I did it. There was just something about that Big Brown/Eight Belles/Calvin/Tagg combination that I couldn't pass up. I hit that thing like a bystander in a pinata montage on America's Funniest Home Videos. I was so sure of things I didn't even think to play the tri.

Okay? Happy now?

:blush:

[Dahoss9698]

What's amazing about it, most of my threads end up gathering 1,000 views or more, its not a shock that this one is also on its way to 1k views. People must want to read what i have to say.

I'd say a majority want to see what kind of idiocy you're going to come up with next.

You never disappoint.

[Stillriledup]

Alright, I give in.

It was me.

I did it. There was just something about that Big Brown/Eight Belles/Calvin/Tagg combination that I couldn't pass up. I hit that thing like a bystander in a pinata montage on America's Funniest Home Videos. I was so sure of things I didn't even think to play the tri.

Okay? Happy now?

:blush:

I don't want you to give in. I just want you to explain to me why the Super was light compared to the other years. if you think the super WAS light, say "you're right, it was light". If you dont think it was light, say that too.

[Mr_Ed]

Tale of Ekati wins the Wood Memorial......37-1 in Derby.

Court Vision 3rd in Wood Memorial...........17-1 in Derby.

Court Vision owned by IEAH.

IEAH dollars, along with UPS boosters.

Even Aunt Bea sent Opie to Mt. Pilot OTB to play Big Brown.

[PaceAdvantage]

What's amazing about it, most of my threads end up gathering 1,000 views or more, its not a shock that this one is also on its way to 1k views. People must want to read what i have to say.Wow, so these guys were right when they claimed you do most of this for attention only. I thought they were only joking. Who woulda thunk it?

[Stillriledup]

Wow, so these guys were right when they claimed you do most of this for attention only. I thought they were only joking. Who woulda thunk it?

Only one of the three stooges.