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View Full Version : Derby Graded earnings and likely 20


point given
04-24-2011, 10:10 PM
According to the derby website there are 17 likely starters and 3 maybes then a few waiting

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/graded-earnings

Likely (17): Uncle Mo (/contenders/uncle-mo) ($1,360,000), Dialed In (/contenders/dialed) ($840,000), Archarcharch (/contenders/archarcharch) ($780,000), Comma to the Top (/contenders/comma-top) ($671,000), Toby’s Corner ($625,000), Pants On Fire (/contenders/pants-fire) ($623,000), Midnight Interlude (/contenders/midnight-interlude) ($600,000), Soldat (/contenders/soldat) ($540,000), Brilliant Speed (/contenders/brilliant-speed) ($450,000), Master of Hounds (/contenders/master-hounds) ($441,884), Twice the Appeal (/contenders/twice-appeal) ($400,000), Nehro (/contenders/nehro) ($400,000), Mucho Macho Man (/contenders/mucho-macho-man) ($370,000), Decisive Moment (/contenders/decisive-moment) ($301,000), Stay Thirsty (/contenders/stay-thirsty) ($260,000), Santiva (/contenders/santiva) ($242,397) and Watch Me Go (/contenders/watch-me-go) ($235,000).

Possible (3): J P’s Gusto ($544,000, finished 8th in Arkansas Derby), Animal Kingdom (/contenders/animal-kingdom) ($285,000, will hinge on how he trains over dirt) and The Factor (/contenders/factor) ($272,500, displaced palate in Arkansas Derby).

Unlikely But Has Earnings (1): Astrology ($311,893, next target is likely the Preakness).

Next in Line: Shackleford ($212,000, will run in Preakness if he can’t get in Derby), Twinspired ($197,500), Silver Medallion ($194,334), Anthony’s Cross ($182,000).

MNslappy
04-25-2011, 01:13 AM
Likely

Master of Hounds (http://contenders/master-hounds) ($441,884)

Interesting. We know he can get the distance and has a running style one has to like in this race. How he works over the dirt will be interesting to see/read about. If he works well, how can you NOT use him somewhere on your exacta/tri/super tickets?

NTamm1215
04-25-2011, 11:29 AM
Interesting. We know he can get the distance and has a running style one has to like in this race. How he works over the dirt will be interesting to see/read about. If he works well, how can you NOT use him somewhere on your exacta/tri/super tickets?

I don't really see how he has a running style you have to like. In his two best races he was in close attendance of very slow paces. He is going to find himself much farther back in the Derby, on a foreign surface, with no workouts over the dirt at CD.

His two worst races were the Racing Post Trophy and the BC Juvenile Turf, both races where he found himself farther back than normal. I don't want to talk you off a 15-1 shot, but I think he has absolutely no chance.

Robert Fischer
04-25-2011, 11:42 AM
Animal Kingdom should prove versatile.

Dahoss9698
04-25-2011, 01:03 PM
Animal Kingdom should prove versatile.

Are you talking running style or how he'll get over dirt? His pedigree is as grassy as it gets and he's been most effective when he is allowed to settle early and rally.

I don't think he's going to transfer well to dirt.

Pell Mell
04-25-2011, 01:21 PM
He was suppposed to work at CD but Motion decided to work him at KEE and was not happy with the work.

Robert Fischer
04-25-2011, 02:05 PM
Are you talking running style or how he'll get over dirt? His pedigree is as grassy as it gets and he's been most effective when he is allowed to settle early and rally.

I don't think he's going to transfer well to dirt.

He looks versatile to me, and yes I've studied his pedigree. Certainly unorthodox for a dirt surface, with good turf horses in it, but AK will be ok.
Following this horse, he seems to be the type who will professionally "deal with" running on the dirt, even if it may be his 3rd best surface. The fact that there are 20 horses and it's a 10furlong race are as favorable as the surface will be detrimental.
With the pedigree that he has, I think many are thinking he is shipping to churchill for a gallop and a saturday work as a doubtful surface test. He's preparing for the race.
Not calling him the derby winner, I'm just saying he will be Animal Kingdom in the derby.
He doesn't have the speed to contest the pace. His dream trip would be getting a decent moderately inside post and being allowed to settle in the deep part of the pocket. He looks to handle the gate, contact, traffic, kickback ... and the surface.

Dahoss9698
04-25-2011, 02:45 PM
Pretty much disagree with all of that. There is a giant difference in kickback on grass or synth and dirt (see Zenyatta). Assuming that a horse who has handled running on turf and synth will automatically transfer that to dirt is risky at best, especially when said runner is bred so strongly for turf on both sides. If he's in the gate he'll probably be half of what he should be oddswise.

Not the kind of horse I expect to run well or would want on my tickets unless I'm expecting him to suck up for 4th.

point given
04-25-2011, 06:53 PM
Dug out these early pps for the derby contenders,

http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/Early%20Derby%20pps_0.pdf

Bruddah
04-25-2011, 08:28 PM
I have had to ask myself, "Bruddah have you ever seen such a weak group of prospective Derby 3yo's with such fantastic Graded Earnings?" Gang, am I missing something when looking at this group. If I just looked at their graded earnings, I would go WOW!

It was just a few years ago if an entrant had $100k in Graded Earnings, they were in the field.

cnollfan
04-25-2011, 11:34 PM
I have had to ask myself, "Bruddah have you ever seen such a weak group of prospective Derby 3yo's with such fantastic Graded Earnings?" Gang, am I missing something when looking at this group. If I just looked at their graded earnings, I would go WOW!

It was just a few years ago if an entrant had $100k in Graded Earnings, they were in the field.

I agree, it does not look like a stellar year. Master of Hounds intrigues me for that reason, as somewhat of a new shooter.

turninforhome10
04-26-2011, 12:00 AM
He was suppposed to work at CD but Motion decided to work him at KEE and was not happy with the work.
Watch his gallop out after the Vinery Spiral real close and tell me if you still like him
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/TP/2011/3/26/10/vinery-racing-spiral-s

Stopping like a pogo stick is not good.

Mr_Ed
04-26-2011, 12:31 AM
Dug out these early pps for the derby contenders,

http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/Early%20Derby%20pps_0.pdf

Thanks for the link.

I'm amazed at J P's Gusto.....an April foal who began 2YO season on May 9th.

Plain Steve
04-28-2011, 11:22 AM
Am I ever glad I read this thread. Over the past several years I've went ga-ga over some European turf horses who showed up for the Breeder's Cup dirt races and all I have to show for it is confetti.
Another potential problem is having been to Dubai, to me it seems horses need time to recuperate after being there, with the exception of the great Curlin.
Having said that, MOH Dosage Profile is a thing of beauty, 12 chefs in the stamina wing.
12-2-30-12-0 (credit to Dr. Roman's site)

Robert Fischer
04-30-2011, 12:41 PM
unfortunately looks like AlbaraDOH! is up

Robert Fischer
05-16-2011, 05:15 PM
ALL RIGHT! :jump::ThmbUp:

Good Luck guys!
even those - (especially those) who've played devils advocate kind of a silly motivation to look even deeper into a subject but it's funny how a semi-public debate and a cup of coffee can squeeze out the last drop of juice.

finally have an opportunity to give this a go with the a big enough roll where i'm not making pussy-cat bet amounts.

will definetely look in from time to time to see who the fan-favorites are, always look at the handicapping section for fresh perspectives, and the board for the horseplayer issues that come up.

Animal Kingdom was a real gift from the racing gods. I was lucky enough to notice his talent and there were issues driving his price like his pedigree and surface questions. I could see that he was a versatile type and one of the three talents in the derby. Just feels lucky. Once I did some background research about where he was broke and initially was outstanding on the dirt with his group there was even more confidence in what already felt like a strong strong opinion. (Randy Bradshaw did a great job with this horse, and was nice enough to respond to an email. He broke the horse in fla., sent to WC in june, got him back after the maiden win and fresh until jan... Have to credit RB some for this horse's extremely professional demeanor, and probably some as well for being open with the trainers that this horse could handle a surface - big congrats to RB! )

the Preakness looks to be a really nice race. All 3 of the talented horses from the derby are back, and then you also have shackleford and maybe nehro as well. Thats 5 allowance or better and 3 graded level runners. Yes uncle mo greatly disappointed by not being a HUGE undefeated UNDERLAY but how greedy can we be? This years crop is pretty solid , especially at the allowance level even if everybody isn't in tune with the graded guys yet. Heck, Nehro could even join the graded guys club and make it 4. Shackleford is solid and you can think of him as FirstDude+. Romans loves the big strong pace controlling horse. It fits Shack's style perfectly because he has conformation issues with his right front around turns(where they go left lead), and controlling the pace keeps him on the rail taking much of the pressure off. Shackleford is very good once they go to the right-hoof lead.

I'm not necessarily betting AK in the preakness. I think that the Derby was the race to score with him. I also think he can be beat by either of the 2 graded guys in a fair race, and I will pretty much be a fan other than looking for one of those 2 to be major overlays. Even Shack or Nehro could win this if one of them happen to have a significantly better trip.
Haven't even looked over the Preakness field yet, much less analyzed the derby replays. Just went straight to mother's day and spent some family time, and chilled out.

would be neat if AK gets the preakness, because at a mile and a half he will still be very strong in the stretch and we could see a good shot in the arm for racing with a TripleCrown winner.

was glad that AlbaraDOH! wasn't riding although obviously not glad the way an injury cost the mount. Clearly hope he recovers completely. Was sure Robby would find trouble. JV is not exactly my favorite jockey either but he got a pretty clean trip. One of the early races he did OK as well on the card (might have been turf too OMG :eek:). Not sure what happened with the whole Alan Garcia who would have been a great fit and even when this horse goes to the big turf races later(eh he probably gets retired to stud anyway the way these things go...). Post Lanes-End comments seemed very loyal, but maybe Kieran McLaughlin wanted him on Soldat and you have more of relationship there...
rambling...

good luck guys

JPinMaryland
05-16-2011, 07:26 PM
Hi Robt. good to see you I had some questions:

Hey do you think the flatter turns at the Preakness will hinder Shackleford's chances?

Also have you noticed any problem with Nehro switching leads? I have not bothered to study it this year as I didnt tape any races and have to watch youtube.... :confused:

And Concealed Identy, the MD horse. Any idea on this one?

cj's dad
05-16-2011, 08:30 PM
Hi Robt. good to see you I had some questions:

Hey do you think the flatter turns at the Preakness will hinder Shackleford's chances?

Also have you noticed any problem with Nehro switching leads? I have not bothered to study it this year as I didnt tape any races and have to watch youtube.... :confused:

And Concealed Identy, the MD horse. Any idea on this one?

Remember "Olivers Twist"and "Magic Wiesner" both at huge prices in the Preakness- If I remember correctly- both finished 2nd and keyed nice exactas.

point given
05-16-2011, 10:19 PM
A little presumptious of him to make an early line without confirmed starters but its a conversation starter. He has Sway Away at 20/1 , i took another look at the Arkansas derby and hadnot remembered him taking the lead in the stretch before checking out . At 20/1 I'll hope Gomez can time a move and keep him interested.

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-stakes-2011-contender-profiles-odds

Robert Fischer
05-16-2011, 11:54 PM
Hi Robt. good to see you I had some questions:

Hey do you think the flatter turns at the Preakness will hinder Shackleford's chances?

Also have you noticed any problem with Nehro switching leads? I have not bothered to study it this year as I didnt tape any races and have to watch youtube.... :confused:

And Concealed Identy, the MD horse. Any idea on this one?

hey JP

Shackleford - Assuming he runs his race, I think the banking at Pim(a bit more level) should HELP Shackleford if he can again control the pace. The thinking here is that he will be inside on both turns if he can. Sure, it could put a little more pressure on his right front, but I think being inside could even things out while the others will be moving to his outside. The real danger for him would be having to go wide into the first turn, and to a lesser degree the presence of other early speed in the race. Usually the Preakness has less trouble and the most talented horses have a shot to run down the pace with fairly clean trips. His dream trip would be an inside post where he can break comfortably and scoot up inside and have the lead by the time they enter the first turn in reasonable fractions.

Nehro - I haven't noticed any problem with his leads. In the Arkansas derby it was a little hard to see his final strides approaching the wire clearly, but he appeared to be on a good right lead through the stretch. In the Kentucky Derby he had very godo footwork. He was put under a bit of a ride on the turn outside of horses, and still switched leads on a dime, and when Animal Kingdom passed close to his outside, Johnny Velazquez used the left-hand whip right in Nehro's face and he didn't go off his right lead and continued on.

Concealed Identity- haven't seen his video but nothing from the recent charts indicate to me that he can win this. This is a pretty solid Preakness field. I guess if he can get in a tri or super it could be a price.

good luck

JPinMaryland
05-17-2011, 12:25 PM
I was thinking the flatter turns would put more pressure on Shakleford's right front during the turns?