The year of the maiden? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Hoofless_Wonder

04-23-2011, 05:47 PM

I do not understand the astrology love. all he did was beat a pathetic group of 2YO's in Churchill, and he has been the fav or the 2nd fav in every race since.

He's not been much value betting to win, but at least his lifetime show parlay is still alive.

He didn't look too nimble out there in the slop today. Looks much better suited to skip the tight turns at Pimlico and point for Belmont. Maybe a NW2X at 18 furlongs or so....

andtheyreoff

04-23-2011, 05:54 PM

The parade of jokes keeps on...a maiden winner stretching out wins the Jerome! How bad is this crop of 3 yos? Maidens and recent graduates are more than holding their own and beating so-called stakes winners.

Astrology - someone tell his owner that FL needs entries! :lol:

So you're saying that because he won a maiden last out, and he won a G2, it automatically means this is a bad crop? How about the possibility he is just an improving 3 year old?

If he continues to improve, I'll bring this post back up in a few months.

04-23-2011, 06:03 PM

So you're saying that because he won a maiden last out, and he won a G2, it automatically means this is a bad crop? How about the possibility he is just an improving 3 year old?

If he continues to improve, I'll bring this post back up in a few months.

And what if he flops? Be sure to bring it up then as well.

toussaud

04-23-2011, 06:09 PM

So you're saying that because he won a maiden last out, and he won a G2, it automatically means this is a bad crop? How about the possibility he is just an improving 3 year old?

If he continues to improve, I'll bring this post back up in a few months.
because that's exactly what curlin did his 3YO year.

Tom

04-23-2011, 06:29 PM

toussaud

04-23-2011, 07:23 PM

RIF.
If you look at all the preps so far, maidens have done very well, and on figure basis - this crop is terrible.

What is considered an improving 3yo this year - hitting the board and getting a 77 Beyer?:rolleyes:

Last years crop was very bad, but this one pales next to them.
this crop is better than last year's. not be too much but it's better.

I don't think there will be any dini's or curlins in this group but it's not going to be like 2008 where a 90 can win a g...wait nevermind.

Dahoss9698

04-23-2011, 09:33 PM

You'll get no arguement from me about the quality, or lack thereof of this crop of 3 year olds, I've been saying it for awhile now. However, I wouldn't use the winner of the Jerome as an example.

He at least has some upside, has a very good trainer and I thought he was pretty game re-rallying like he did. He's no star, but I think he has a nice future ahead of him.

Tom

04-23-2011, 09:43 PM

He might be, but it says a lot about the ones he beat, stepping up in class and stretching out and then really humiliating the others.

I've seen enough 3yos to last me a lifetime.

PhantomOnTour

04-23-2011, 11:25 PM

My figs had Adios Charlie's first two races at 89-99 and 99-102 (these are Quirin style). He has a nice fig dynamic for stretching out (ie-his figs arent top heavy and his speed fig is higher than his pace fig). He finished nicely in both of his sprints, esp his last race.
Only Cal Nation(104-106 in his debut) and Justin Phillip (95-106 in the Bayshore) had higher figs. Rattlesnake Bridge matched Adios Charlie with a 102 final fig in both of his starts...but his pace fig was low.
Cal Nation showed he had some difficulty stretching out, throwing a 103-105-102 when losing to Dance City. Cal Nation is a sprinter...so is Justin Phillip.

The play was to use Adios under Cal Nation and Justin Phillip and over those two and Rattlesnake in exactas. Win bet on Adios at 8-1.
Tossed Astrology and got burned when he grabbed 2nd.

His figs remind me of Yawanna Twist, who had two sprints before running 2nd in the Gotham, and had the same 'stretchout dynamic' as Adios Charlie.
Nice colt.

Tom

04-23-2011, 11:41 PM

And that was pretty much my point - an maiden with inferior figures beat them. And other have been running close as well. A bad crop.

How many MSW to GR2 stretch outs do you normally see in 3yos?

PhantomOnTour

04-24-2011, 12:04 AM

I'm also not going to argue that this 3yr old crop is something special.
They aren't, but they sure are evenly matched.

How many more maiden breakers are you gonna watch beat these experienced colts before you bet one of them???

By the way, his figs were "inferior" to two horses who really don't want to go long. A little better 'capping by me and I should have seen that beforehand and not even bothered with those exactas under Cal Nation & Justin Phillip. Astrology may not be as 'fast' as the above two, but he's a router, and he shoulda been on my ticket.

affirmedny

04-24-2011, 12:11 AM

The parade of jokes keeps on...a maiden winner stretching out wins the Jerome! How bad is this crop of 3 yos? Maidens and recent graduates are more than holding their own and beating so-called stakes winners.

Astrology - someone tell his owner that FL needs entries! :lol:

This will keep happening as long as horses run once every 2 months instead of once every 2 weeks. Better get used to it......

turninforhome10

04-24-2011, 12:29 AM

Is their a relationship between our criticisms of the quality of the crop and the letdown of the two year old champion? I mean the greater the hype the more the gripe? IMO we are clamoring for a big horse to step and this year it is like most of the bandwagons have allowed for pretty short trips. I see Animal Kingdom did not work well today, surprised? watch his action after the wire in the Vinery Spiral (like a pogo stick). Loved the maiden today Cashed hard :jump: . This horse would have been a stinker to figures players, but if you watched his maiden win, it was pretty sharp and he finished with plenty left. Derby Kitten mows em down at KEE. Anyone thinks the track changes at KEE when it rains. It seems the rail slows down alot?
Christopher Speckert can I buy a beer? 50-1 :jump: Look at the maiden claimer at KEE 3 Would you want your first time starter with Amoss at approx 120$ a day or Speckert. Watch for trainers stretching out the preparations for little owners and dropping in for a tag first start. Think about it as an owner and Speckerts bomb made sense. Pause for contemplation please.

Did anyone ever see the Seinfeld episode where George decides to do everything opposite and wallah he had a great turnaround. This would have been a good mantra for this years preps. On to Churchill. :bang:

Tom

04-24-2011, 12:32 AM

How many more maiden breakers are you gonna watch beat these experienced colts before you bet one of them???

I found 65 Gr2 dirt routes for 3yo since 1/1/05 through March 2011 - not a single MSW winner stretched out and won one.

PhantomOnTour

04-24-2011, 12:39 AM

I found 65 Gr2 dirt routes for 3yo since 1/1/05 through March 2011 - not a single MSW winner stretched out and won one.
Well then 8-1 was a HUGE underlay on Adios Charlie :lol:

Many have been competitive though, and Adios caught the right kind of 'quitter' to re-rally against or that stat would be 0-66.
He just reminded me of Yawanna Twist and I had to take a shot.

JustRalph

04-24-2011, 12:46 AM

I found 65 Gr2 dirt routes for 3yo since 1/1/05 through March 2011 - not a single MSW winner stretched out and won one.

Well, ? How long? :lol:

Dahoss9698

04-24-2011, 01:29 AM

This will keep happening as long as horses run once every 2 months instead of once every 2 weeks. Better get used to it......

This is a valid point. Horse racing has changed (for the worse) a lot from even 5 or 10 years ago. This kind of thing is going to be the norm now, rather than the exception.

04-24-2011, 01:31 AM

This is a valid point. Horse racing has changed (for the worse) a lot from even 5 or 10 years ago. This kind of thing is going to be the norm now, rather than the exception.

True...this is the single biggest problem with racing, and there are a lot of problems.

Dahoss9698

04-24-2011, 01:40 AM

I found 65 Gr2 dirt routes for 3yo since 1/1/05 through March 2011 - not a single MSW winner stretched out and won one.

Is a one turn mile really a route? I guess it's a matter of opinion, but I consider it an elongated sprint rather than a route.

I know it was a grade 3, but Dialed In won the Holy Bull this year stretching out to a mile after a MSW sprint win. I think nowadays you can't really look at the grade of a race and take it at face value like you used to be able to.

The race today took the place of the grade 3 Withers. The runners in it had a total of 1 graded win between them.

toussaud

04-24-2011, 01:45 AM

I found 65 Gr2 dirt routes for 3yo since 1/1/05 through March 2011 - not a single MSW winner stretched out and won one.
then your numbers suck lol.

off the top of my head, curlin - rebel stakes 07, Casino Drive - Peter Pan 2008

And Paddy O'Prado broke his maiden in a 2 turn turf stakes race, but your saving grace is that it was a grade 3 not a grade 2. and i'm assuming you mean horses coming straight out of maidens to grade 2's, not just horses who are eligible forNW1 races, because if that were the case there are a slew of extra horses like i want revenge and quality road.

Dahoss9698

04-24-2011, 01:57 AM

You're definitely right about Curlin. I don't think the other ones fit into the criteria Tom was looking at.

toussaud

04-24-2011, 02:04 AM

i don't see how casino drive doesn't fit. the peter pan is freaking 9F come on man i don't care if it's no turns that's a route race and he won that off his maiden in japan no less.

Tom

04-24-2011, 07:14 AM

I queried MSW winners at a sprint moving to a Gr 2 route, on dirt. That would include 7 furlongs to a one turn mile, if there were any.

Tom

04-24-2011, 07:16 AM

i don't see how casino drive doesn't fit. the peter pan is freaking 9F come on man i don't care if it's no turns that's a route race and he won that off his maiden in japan no less.

OK, if that MSW sprint win was in Japan, I do not have it my db, so he would not show up.

Jasonm921

04-24-2011, 07:32 AM

This will keep happening as long as horses run once every 2 months instead of once every 2 weeks. Better get used to it......

Bingo.

Tom

04-24-2011, 07:43 AM

Actually, Curlin did not qualify - he went in the Gr3 Rebel after winning his maiden at 7 furlongs.

Pell Mell

04-24-2011, 07:54 AM

I played him for one reason only and maybe Tom or someone would look up some stats on this. I don't have a data base but it has been my experience that horses coming off a decent race at 6 1/2f seem to do extremely well went sent a mile. Maybe I'm just remembering the ones I cashed on because I have cashed a lot of these in the past year. There seems to be no difference as to what class or track.

depalma113

04-24-2011, 10:11 AM

I queried MSW winners at a sprint moving to a Gr 2 route, on dirt. That would include 7 furlongs to a one turn mile, if there were any.

I think you are looking at this all wrong. Horses that go from breaking their maiden in a sprint or one turn route that win a Graded Stakes next out should be looked upon as very promising horses.

Flower Alley - one turn mile maiden winner to Grade 2 mile and an eighth Lanes End winner next out.

Others that won a graded stakes stretching from a maiden sprint to a route: Curlin, Bernardini, Bellamy Road

For teh record, Casino Drive broke his maiden in a mile and an eighth race.

Dahoss9698

04-24-2011, 11:27 AM

Actually, Curlin did not qualify - he went in the Gr3 Rebel after winning his maiden at 7 furlongs.

Yeah, I went back and looked again this morning, you're right. Again, I think the reason for the discrepency is the grade of the races, which don't mean much anymore IMO.

FenceBored

04-24-2011, 12:35 PM

The parade of jokes keeps on...a maiden winner stretching out wins the Jerome! How bad is this crop of 3 yos? Maidens and recent graduates are more than holding their own and beating so-called stakes winners.

Astrology - someone tell his owner that FL needs entries! :lol:

Thanks loads. Now I've got Al Stewart stuck in my head. :bang:

"Don't bother asking for explanations
He'll just tell you that he won
In the year of maidens."

Tom

04-24-2011, 12:36 PM

Yup. I used to draw line between Gr2 and Gr3.
Now, it appears, Gr2 and MSW are parallel classes.:rolleyes:

This whole thread has gone far away from my original premise, that class used to mean something in the 3yo non claiming races. Yes, I like horses going from 6.5 to a one turn mile. Yes. I like powerful maiden winners to repeat. Yes, I like to look at a horse's pace profile to see if it can stretch out. I used the 65 race example only as an afterthought to support my argument because I had the data handy. I did not the 2 horse in that race because he just lost a NW allowance race. In hindsight, I should have looked at all the woeful figs earned by the horses and called that race a pig race with no class at all. I learn.

Spalding No!

04-24-2011, 01:43 PM

He might be, but it says a lot about the ones he beat, stepping up in class and stretching out and then really humiliating the others.

I've seen enough 3yos to last me a lifetime.

You're being fooled by the name of the race and the graded ranking.

Simply look at the past performances for the race. 6 of the 8 entrants were eligible for NW1x allowance.

The 2 that were multiple winners, Justin Phillip and Astrology, were marginal graded stakes performers. The very fact that they were competing in this race (as opposed to a major Derby prep) already suggested that neither was considered as a leading division horse.

Therefore, much like this year's Sham Stakes and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, what you saw Saturday essentially was the first condition allowance race that all should have been running in in the first place.

Getting back to quality, you mentioned you didn't use the 2 horse because he had lost an allowance race. That was risky thinking because the horse that won that race, Dance City, came back to place in the Arkansas Derby.

Fortunately for you, Cal Nation had some sort of meltdown (a la Quality Road in the BC Classic) and is unlikely to be heard from again any time soon.

04-24-2011, 02:33 PM

You're being fooled by the name of the race and the graded ranking.

Simply look at the past performances for the race. 6 of the 8 entrants were eligible for NW1x allowance.

The 2 that were multiple winners, Justin Phillip and Astrology, were marginal graded stakes performers. The very fact that they were competing in this race (as opposed to a major Derby prep) already suggested that neither was considered as a leading division horse.

Therefore, much like this year's Sham Stakes and Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, what you saw Saturday essentially was the first condition allowance race that all should have been running in in the first place.

Getting back to quality, you mentioned you didn't use the 2 horse because he had lost an allowance race. That was risky thinking because the horse that won that race, Dance City, came back to place in the Arkansas Derby.

Fortunately for you, Cal Nation had some sort of meltdown (a la Quality Road in the BC Classic) and is unlikely to be heard from again any time soon.

Yep, well said.

It all goes back to horses just not running enough these days. They used to have a logical progression through conditions, then jump into stakes. Now hardly any of the runners in 3yo stakes have passed through more than one allowance condition. They are thrust into stakes if they show any promise at all, and usually remain there if they run even a little bit.

With the current "race once in a while" schedule, there is simply no time for progressing at the old rate. All somebody has to do is look at the prep schedule now as compared to the 80s. The biggest preps are run 3 and 4 weeks out...it used to be 2.

PhantomOnTour

04-24-2011, 02:36 PM

I don't recall ever seeing an An2x condition for 3yr olds at any winter/spring/pre-Derby tracks.
Once they clear their n1x it's stakes time.
Same with 2yr olds...they don't have An2x races.

toussaud

04-24-2011, 02:38 PM

I don't recall ever seeing an An2x condition for 3yr olds at any winter/spring/pre-Derby tracks.
Once they clear their n1x it's stakes time.
Same with 2yr olds...they don't have An2x races.
there was one at oaklawn on the rebel stakes card. The horse that beat elite alex won it

Edit: I just realized everyone has beaten elite alex lol. The horse that beat elite alex in the allowance NW1x race

04-24-2011, 02:40 PM

Spalding No!

04-24-2011, 02:41 PM

I don't recall ever seeing an An2x condition for 3yr olds at any winter/spring/pre-Derby tracks.
Once they clear their n1x it's stakes time.
Same with 2yr olds...they don't have An2x races.

Gulfstream definitely used to. I believe both Diligence and Louis Quatorze won a couple of allowances before tackling graded stakes. Lemon Drop Kid also won an allowance at Gulfstream prior to a start in the Blue Grass.

CBedo

04-24-2011, 03:33 PM

A friend of mine proposed the idea that to qualify to run in any graded stakes, a horse should have to have gone through some set of allowance conditions, either NW2 or 3 other than.

I used to laugh at him, but now I wonder if that might not make owners/trainers run their horses more than 5x a year to get to the big money. Probably not, the tracks and owners would probably just move the money down into the allowance, lol.

RXB

04-24-2011, 04:30 PM

In just a few weeks from late March to mid-April, there were seven 3YO male races with purses of $750,000+. There are only eight races at that purse level available to older males on all surfaces combined throughout the entire year, Breeders' Cup excepted. So why bother being patient?

You can make about the same money with a Gr2/Gr3 3YO dirt runner as you can with a Gr1 older horse, unless maybe your older horse wins one of the major BC races.