What Would You Do?

[Pell Mell]

Here's my dilemma; I have a $200. win ticket on AAA @ 85/1 so if he wins I stand to make 17 Gs.
Should I stand pat or should I hedge? I handicap the classic races by pedigree and I have 9 horses on my pedigree list that are probably in the race, (see my blog) and only one may be short odds. Should I backwheel an exacta? Should I make an entirely different bet?

What would you do? :confused:

[DJofSD]

Is the $200 wager within your comfort zone? In other words, if you lose the wager are you going to be really upset or will you be able to make a wager on the next race and not try to get even?

How much more are you willing to bet to arbitrage the race?

[lamboguy]

i like your position because i think either arch wins it or the horse that came in second to him wins. i would have no clue how to hedge it otherwise.

in any event i am going to root hard for you, because of your post i am now definately betting ARCH ARCH ARCH

GO FOR THE ARCH

[lamboguy]

i am betting only if he trains good on the track in churchill

[Pell Mell]

Is the $200 wager within your comfort zone? In other words, if you lose the wager are you going to be really upset or will you be able to make a wager on the next race and not try to get even?

How much more are you willing to bet to arbitrage the race?

After more than 60 years at the track how upset could I be? I might be pissed if nosed out or something but it's a horse race not the end of the world. I never try to get even on the next race.

I might go for a grand to hedge the bet. My first inclination is to backwheel in ex and try to dutch.

[MONEY]

ARCHARCHARCH is 12/1 now.
I would try to sell the ticket.
I'm sure that somebody will give you a nice price for it.

[Some_One]

If you're not sure what to do at this point, then why did you make the wager in the first place?

[DJofSD]

After more than 60 years at the track how upset could I be? I might be pissed if nosed out or something but it's a horse race not the end of the world. I never try to get even on the next race.

I might go for a grand to hedge the bet. My first inclination is to backwheel in ex and try to dutch.
OK, sorry. I asked b/c I don't know you or your style.

I would try to dutch for the win likely runners to beat me. Either try to get back the money you've put into the race, or, make a small(er) profit.

Then bottom wheel my initial pick with the other runners not used in the win wager(s). Likely, the exacta pay off for my horse on the bottom with the mid to long shots will be substantial.

[Pell Mell]

If you're not sure what to do at this point, then why did you make the wager in the first place?

What kind of question is that? I'm only trying to figure my options...and you didn't answer the frigging question... only gave what you think is a wise ass answer...why does anyone make a bet? :p

[Pell Mell]

i am betting only if he trains good on the track in churchill

He's got a good race over the track in his first race. Ran 2nd to a horse that almost won the Pasco in FL.

[Pell Mell]

ARCHARCHARCH is 12/1 now.
I would try to sell the ticket.
I'm sure that somebody will give you a nice price for it.

Sold some big E tickets once and blew 19 Gs...never again.:(

[Pell Mell]

OK, sorry. I asked b/c I don't know you or your style.

I would try to dutch for the win likely runners to beat me. Either try to get back the money you've put into the race, or, make a small(er) profit.

Then bottom wheel my initial pick with the other runners not used in the win wager(s). Likely, the exacta pay off for my horse on the bottom with the mid to long shots will be substantial.

Sounds like it might be a good move...actually, the reason I'm thinking of hedging is that there are a couple of horses in the race that I hadn't considered when I made the bet....I still like AAA but am thinking one of these may beat him because they are kind of under the radar..

[lamboguy]

He's got a good race over the track in his first race. Ran 2nd to a horse that almost won the Pasco in FL.i like the horse. what he did last year got nothing to do with what he does this year. if he don't train good, he won't run good. sometimes they train good and still run bad. in these kentucky derby's, none of them that train bad do much when it comes to race day. i have posted right on this board how horses did not train well and i thought didn't belong in the race. freisen fire was a prime example. the same will happen this year, you will have 20 horses going to post with 5 that have no chance to hit the board and sometimes those horses are favorites.

[Pell Mell]

i like the horse. what he did last year got nothing to do with what he does this year. if he don't train good, he won't run good. sometimes they train good and still run bad. in these kentucky derby's, none of them that train bad do much when it comes to race day. i have posted right on this board how horses did not train well and i thought didn't belong in the race. freisen fire was a prime example. the same will happen this year, you will have 20 horses going to post with 5 that have no chance to hit the board and sometimes those horses are favorites.

I totally agree...what I meant was that he has at least shown a liking for the track....too soon for any works after last... Jinks waits about 10 days.

[maddog42]

I totally agree...what I meant was that he has at least shown a liking for the track....too soon for any works after last... Jinks waits about 10 days.

I really like the horse to run in the money, so exacta backwheel doesn't seem bad. Keep your hedging to no more than your original bet. You are not protecting the big win, but only part of that. Realistically he has no better than
8-1 chance to win this race. Congrats on making a very good bet. I am jealous.

[SansuiSC]

I really like the horse to run in the money, so exacta backwheel doesn't seem bad. Keep your hedging to no more than your original bet. You are not protecting the big win, but only part of that. Realistically he has no better than
8-1 chance to win this race. Congrats on making a very good bet. I am jealous.
I agree, backwheel the horse in case he runs second. AAA is YOUR horse and you want him to win, I would only cover with a backwheel sit back crack a Bud and hope for the best. I'll be rooting for you but will make my own wagers and AAA is a contender no doubt.
Just dont try to hedge expecting to get the 17k obviously.

[maddog42]

I agree, backwheel the horse in case he runs second. AAA is YOUR horse and you want him to win, I would only cover with a backwheel sit back crack a Bud and hope for the best. I'll be rooting for you but will make my own wagers and AAA is a contender no doubt.
Just dont try to hedge expecting to get the 17k obviously.
I certainly agree with the Bud part. With $200 you could probably guarantee a
5k payoff if he ran second to anybody. A multi-tier exacta might be in order ala
Beyer $5 exacta field/AAA for $100 bet + $5 exacta top 8 contenders/ AAA for
$140 bet total. On the other hand....don't listen to me. I haven't hit a good exacta since Hector was a pup. Again Congrats on a good bet.
My whole line of thinking is that I hate to pick a good longshot and have him run second and not get paid. This horse is much more likely to run second.
Good Luck!!!!!

[maddog42]

I certainly agree with the Bud part. With $200 you could probably guarantee a
5k payoff if he ran second to anybody. A multi-tier exacta might be in order ala
Beyer $5 exacta field/AAA for $100 bet + $5 exacta top 8 contenders/ AAA for
$140 bet total. On the other hand....don't listen to me. I haven't hit a good exacta since Hector was a pup. Again Congrats on a good bet.
My whole line of thinking is that I hate to pick a good longshot and have him run second and not get paid. This horse is much more likely to run second.
Good Luck!!!!!

I forgot to finish the exacta Tier. Use remaining $60 to hammer top 3 betting choices over your horse. I am sure you knew this, but you got me excited.

[big frank]

i know its not the same , but i bet 40$ on Uconn at 75-1 to win the title in nov. i was going to win 3000 and everyone told me to hedge on Butler. I hate to hedge but i bet 1,000 on butler. Uconn won and i won 2,000 instead of 3,000. It might have still been the right play but i Loved Uconn in the final game and i felt i threw money away. If you fell strong about AAA i say sit back and root for the score, Good luck

[Jeff P]

Years ago, whenever I was was live to the final leg of a pick3 or pick4, after looking at the will pays, if the will pays were large enough: I used to hedge by win betting horses I didn't have in the final leg of the multi race bet.

I did this on a regular basis for about 2 years because it always felt good to "lock up" a profit no matter who won the race.

Fortunately I kept records of those hedge bets. One day I sat down and reviewed those records.

It turned out that my hedge bets were big net losers. Making them had cost me several thousand dollars over the 2 year period I had been making them.

Lesson learned... and I stopped making those kinds of hedge bets.

In my opinion, each bet has to stand on its own.

If you think a bet has a positive expectancy: make the bet.

If you think a bet has a negative expectancy: pass.

If you are asking for advice, I would approach things this way:

If you are able to find positive expectancy bets on horses other than Archarcharch in the Derby, make them.

If you can't, then watch the race and pull for your horse - knowing you made a really good future bet where you stand to cash at 85-1 on a horse offering far less than that in the win pool.


-jp

.

[lamboguy]

I totally agree...what I meant was that he has at least shown a liking for the track....too soon for any works after last... Jinks waits about 10 days.
i am no genious either, i ran second in 2 different tracks to wesley ward yesterday and ran third to his best horse today. wesley ward has done a great job training up his 2 year olds. he is getting better and better these days, and unbeatable. we lost to him with top notch trainers too, motion and helen pitts.

[Zydeco]

i am no genious either, i ran second in 2 different tracks to wesley ward yesterday and ran third to his best horse today. wesley ward has done a great job training up his 2 year olds. he is getting better and better these days, and unbeatable. we lost to him with top notch trainers too, motion and helen pitts.

Was this Dorothy's Aurora?

[lamboguy]

Was this Dorothy's Aurora?she's a real nice filly, she just didn't have the same preparation as the ward horse. he has training races at calder and really does an unbelievable job getting them ready. ours come off a 5 furlong training center and then to the track. they have good bottoms on them, but in today's world you can't beat the work that wesley does with his horses. ours will get better down the line and should run long career's even with the early start.

[depalma113]

Here's my dilemma; I have a $200. win ticket on AAA @ 85/1 so if he wins I stand to make 17 Gs.
Should I stand pat or should I hedge? I handicap the classic races by pedigree and I have 9 horses on my pedigree list that are probably in the race, (see my blog) and only one may be short odds. Should I backwheel an exacta? Should I make an entirely different bet?

What would you do? :confused:

$10 backwheel exacta and a $1 all/all/Arch in the trifecta.

[Bruddah]

I have read several good pieces of advise regarding your ticket. The first thing you must determine is what are your chances of cashing this ticket. Obviously from what I've read here, you don't like your chances. Sell percentages of the ticket to recoup your investment. 1.e. 20% for $100. Get your initial investment back and keep 60% of the payout with no monetary risk.

Just another way of looking at how to solve your dilemma without further investments in hedging etc.

[Tread]

I think Jeff offers some sound advice about hedging in general, but with the sheer amount of the payoff here, I'd have to seriously consider it. If a p3/p4 is going to pay 500-1500, then yes over the long run you are losing money hedging those situations. If the payoff is 20k and you have 4 horses that can do it, then you need to try a hedge IMO. All depends on the circumstances, it is a good general rule but you have to be smart about when to make exceptions.

In this case, the obvious drawback is if you wheel him underneath in ex/tri that you could lose those bets too and end up losing it all. That makes the sports betting analogies worthless here, in a heads up matchup you can use a hedge to guarantee some sort of payback, where here you can lose it all if the horse runs out.

[CBedo]

My records show similar results to what Jeff presented, but that's comparing equal bet sizes. By hedging, or basically buying insurance as in other businesses, you will reduce your overall margin, but the question becomes does hedging reduce your risk profile enough so that you can make larger wagers? My records show that rational, sound hedging strategies have allowed me to make more total dollars even though I have a lower percentage return on wagers.

In simplistic terms, you have to compare not just what hedging does to your average odds, but also your win percentage and the dollars wagered. All three affect your total profit (or loss) at the end of the year.

[Pell Mell]

I have read several good pieces of advise regarding your ticket. The first thing you must determine is what are your chances of cashing this ticket. Obviously from what I've read here, you don't like your chances. Sell percentages of the ticket to recoup your investment. 1.e. 20% for $100. Get your initial investment back and keep 60% of the payout with no monetary risk.

Just another way of looking at how to solve your dilemma without further investments in hedging etc.

I do like my chances. There are however a couple of other horses that I feel have a good chance. I was thinking that for about 5% of what I might win I could hedge my bet and make a couple of unrelated bets. This horse owes me nothing because I bet him and he won at 15/1 and 25/1 so I'm actually way ahead with him anyway.

[Rapid Grey]

The Oaks/Derby double or the Woodford/Derby double could also be good races to hedge in.

[Bruddah]

I do like my chances. There are however a couple of other horses that I feel have a good chance. I was thinking that for about 5% of what I might win I could hedge my bet and make a couple of unrelated bets. This horse owes me nothing because I bet him and he won at 15/1 and 25/1 so I'm actually way ahead with him anyway.

I was trying to suggest to you how to be monetarily risk free going into the Derby. You could even take the recouped funds and finance your hedge bets. Actually, you find yourself in an enviable position on Derby Day.

Good Luck :ThmbUp:

[point given]

I was trying to suggest to you how to be monetarily risk free going into the Derby. You could even take the recouped funds and finance your hedge bets. Actually, you find yourself in an enviable position on Derby Day.

Good Luck :ThmbUp:

I like your approach.

[Pell Mell]

I'd like to thank everyone for their input. I'm going over the ideas and there are some good ones. Good thing I've got some time to decide on a plan.
:ThmbUp:

[SansuiSC]

From twitter. If that does not calm you a little then nothing will.
Rooting for ya.

Archarcharch dusts workmate at Churchill Downs

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDc5ODU=