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View Full Version : s.a. bias from the opening of the oak tree till now

freeneasy
10-24-2003, 07:26 PM
82 % of the winners racing on the main track have been won by horses on the lead or no more then 2 1/2 lenghts back at the 2nd call.

on the turf 67%
cj
10-24-2003, 07:50 PM
I would think that is pretty standard at any race track in America...no real bias there.
Dave Schwartz
10-24-2003, 08:14 PM
CJ,

No, that is way high. Around 55% is average, I believe.

Dave

PS: Of course, in SoCal "top 2" is half the field. <G>
Tom
10-24-2003, 08:23 PM
DRF website is hosting a seminar live from Bally's in Las Vegas-link to join is a pop up window on thier homepage.
I will be there - if anyone can make it, drinks are on me! :rolleyes:
cj
10-24-2003, 09:19 PM
Dave,

It didn't say top 2, it said within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead. At the second call, that is usually where the winner is found.
lsbets
10-24-2003, 10:09 PM
Tom - get me a beer
freeneasy
10-24-2003, 10:10 PM
yes within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead has pretty much been the standard for s.a. but 82 % might be high. if youve noticed a telling indiference to this profile during the last 4-5 days of racing, then it could be that the head trackmasters have been preparing the track for a even varient surface. if thats the case then dominating class will win from anywhere.
kenwoodallpromos
10-25-2003, 12:26 AM
SA track is very fast, with jockeys going inside, favs finishing ITM. this week. I think your 0- 2 1/2 back 2nd call is very representitive and turn time will be very important in the dirt races.
superfecta
10-25-2003, 03:03 AM
look for horses about 4 1/2 lengths from the lead or better.And looks for jocks that ride on this course regularly to do well.Even for shippers that look like they don't belong.
Whirlaway
10-25-2003, 10:02 AM
Nationally, in sprint races 78% of winners are within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead at the second call. I don't have the figures for route races.
Jaguar
10-25-2003, 02:54 PM
Models are showing winning horses in Dirt Routes at Santa Anita on the lead, or within 3 lengths of the leader at the second call 86% of the time.

For Turf Routes at Santa Anita, winning horses were leading at the second call- or within 4 lengths of the leader- 83% of the time.

Class is so important at Santa Anita and I find the Timeform ratings helpful in studying the foreign horses.

On Breeder's Cup Day not many races are playable(chalky or chaos), but the contests that show a 67% or higher consistency rating can pay off. Sometimes you can take down a $12 mutuel. -Not too shabby for a tough handicapping event.

All The Best,

Jaguar
Dave Schwartz
10-25-2003, 04:06 PM
CJ,

Ah, I misunderstood.

Dave