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View Full Version : Post Pos / Finish partial correlations for SA at BC turf & dirt

diablogger
10-24-2003, 07:00 PM
Correlations between post position and finishing position at SA for the BC surfaces and conditions, with field size partialled out:

Distance / Surface / Sampe Size / Correlation / P Value

6f / D / 1279 / -.059 / .033
8f / T / 773 / .092 / .010
8.5f / D / 704 / -.131 / .000
9f / D / 83 / -.178 / .109
10f / D / 31 / -.292 / .117
10f / T / 120 / .116 / .206
12f / T / 20 / .087 / .722
Tom
10-24-2003, 07:19 PM
So where does PP come in here?
Rick
10-26-2003, 05:09 PM
diablogger,

Did those statistics turn out being predictive in the actual races?
diablogger
10-26-2003, 07:37 PM
Originally posted by Rick
diablogger,

Did those statistics turn out being predictive in the actual races?

Originally posted by Rick
diablogger,

Did those statistics turn out being predictive in the actual races?

The sample of 8 races is simply too small to have any usefulness for statistical inference per se, but you can look at a few things that might be of use.

For instance, the BC Juvenile was run at 8.5f on the dirt track. A lot of handicappers were bemoaning Halfbridle's outside post. But in 2003 before the BC, there was actually a NEGATIVE correlation between post position & finishing position in races at 8.5f on dirt at SA (significant at .000 with n=704). I.e., the higher the post, the better off you were.

Now that correlation was only -.131, which in predictive linear terms means that post position only accounted for 1.7% of the variance in finishing positions.

The most that you could say coming in is that, statistically, outside post positions had not demonstrated the usual disadvantage at 8.5f in 2003, and in fact had a small (very small) amount of usefulness in the opposite direction).

Basically, it should have been ignored.
Rick
10-27-2003, 03:35 AM
diablogger,

Yeah, I remember that race where the TV idiot was saying the exact opposite of what the stats in front of me showed. It's amazing how little analysis these guys really do.
headhawg
10-27-2003, 11:17 AM
Originally posted by Rick
diablogger,

Yeah, I remember that race where the TV idiot was saying the exact opposite of what the stats in front of me showed. It's amazing how little analysis these guys really do.

I think that's the reason many of us are here -- the real analysis from real handicappers. KYRacer recommended this site to me and I, for one, have not been disappointed.

Thanks to all who contribute. I have learned a lot (about handicapping -- and handicappers).

HH

(Scary that I check this site more than my email.)