Handicapping Nightmares-"The Notorious Scratch" and Family Values

[mhrussell]

It’s tough enough to beat this game without having to hit a moving target. By that I mean without having 20 to 40% of the already feeble field sizes being scratched as part of the overnight changes, or worse, a late scratch minutes before post. We out here in So. California have been calling Hollywood Park, the "home of the late scratch" for years and the other So.Cal circuit tracks are almost as bad. As a consequence, I usually do not seriously play California tracks that much anymore (although Santa Anita Park is "home" and I do enjoy the live racing..) and this is a big reason for it. But now, over the past several months or so, I am running across this same malady at other tracks as well. The NY, KY, FL, and Illinois circuits are my regions of choice, and the number of scratches at these tracks is starting to get really annoying.

How often do you work all day handicapping 3 or more choice cards of races; analyzing only the best, most contentious value races; dream of the great bets that await you and then wake up on race day morning only to find gobs of scratches? And of course your key, value, play of the day, dream bet horses of the night before are amongst them and all your hard work handicapping the day before goes for naught.

Oh, and also your wife is now mad at you for spending too much of the previous day working on your handicapping. And this morning it only gets worse as you now tell her you aren’t even going to go to the track today after all!
[My wife does not like the races nor does she understand value betting concepts but loves the extra $ when it comes in. We have a fragile peace agreement on this issue… kind of like what the U.S. is going to have with Saudi Arabia pretty soon. ]

Am I going crazy; just picking unlucky days to play, or do others see this same thing happening too? Has there ever been a study done to see which tracks have the fewest number of scratches? Does anyone out there have their own database that could answer that question? Which tracks/circuits do you believe, based on your experience, have the fewest number of scratches?


I am going to spend today reading a good book…and not about horse racing.

Regards,
Matt…

[Tom]

I think whenever a trainer scratches a horse, unless it entered in the next day's card, that horse should be barred from racing for 30 days.
Alos, there shold be a rule that sccratcehs are made and published by 9am-as it is now, youcna't get some scratches until just before post time. This is great if you are trying to printout sheets and go to the track.

Tom

[HorseLady]

Scratches are done by 9 or 10am. I think it's insane that we have to wait until 11:30, at the earliest, to see them. If you are going to the track, you are probably gone by then if you live a bit away. I live about 20 minutes from Belmont and Aqueduct, but will still leave around 11:30 to get there at a decent time.

If you are a member of the media, you can find out scratches earlier, but us lowly regular folks are left to suffer :( I think we should all find out at the same time!!!

[PaceGuy]

The one thing I dislike the most is a "Late Scratch." By that, I mean the kind that occurs at the gate or within one minute of post time. In New York, they just announce the scratch, load the horses, and run the race. Depending on which horse is scratched, the pace makeup of the race may be changed significantly. I really think that there ought to be a mandatory three minute delay after any horse is scratched so that the bettors have a chance to re-handicap the race. Does anybody else feel this way?

[Rick Ransom]

PaceGuy,

The most annoying thing to me is having my top choice be a late scratch and the second choice winning the race at long odds. There's usually not enough time to even get the bet placed (from home) much less do any additional handicapping. It's just another reason why your actual results will never be quite as good as what you "should have" been able to do. Another one is turf races changed to the dirt without any indication that it has occurred. Losing internet access at just the wrong time is another one. Mistakes and lost opportunities add up to a significant amount at the end of the year if you're making several thousand bets.

[MikeH]

One of the major advantages of playing from home is that you can wait and handicap each race as it comes up. I never download a race file from BRIS until I have the scratches and track condition.

[Rick Ransom]

MikeH,

You must be a very fast handicapper if you can wait for late scratches to even get started! That still won't help you with gate scratches however. Quite often there is one minute or less to decide if you have another bet and execute it on the phone or over the internet. My records show that these bets are more profitable (if you can make them) than the average of my other bets.

[takeout]

What I hate most about a late scratch is what it does to the odds. I may have already bet another horse in the race because of getting a certain price and now maybe he's too low but I can't get the bet canceled. OTOH, if the late scratch was the one that I bet on, then I figure they probably saved me some money.

I'm reminded of a bad bet that I made (one of many) where I boxed four horses in an exacta and had only one price horse in there. I should've just keyed on the price horse for half the cost in the first place. The price horse is a late scratch and I only get half of my dough back and I'm stuck with a box on three chalky horses. I don't think it hit but if it had it would've barely been worth collecting. For some reason I was thinking that I could cancel the entire wager but they wouldn't do that. Live and learn. The track and state must l-o-v-e that kind of betting! :o

[PaceGuy]

Late scratches can sometimes destroy an otherwise live pick-3 ticket. There have been a handful of times where I have been live after the first two legs of a pick three, only to have one of my horses in the third leg become a late scratch. Guess who they give you? The favorite. On occasion, one of the horses I would have chosen (after knowing about a scratch and not before) has won the third leg of the pick three. What can you do?

[PaceGuy]

Here's another 'gotcha' about scratches. At Turf Paradise, where I play, you can get a printout of the scratches for a given track from any mutuel clerk. But what they give you is misleading. If only one half of an entry is scratched, the scratch sheet given to you by the mutuel clerk reads as if BOTH HALVES of the entry are still running.

Go figure that one out.

In fact, I was once so incensed after making a losing bet on the scratched half of an entry that I THOUGHT was running that I took the time to write a letter to Turf Paradise Management asking them why they were giving misleading information out to their patrons.

The reply from them was nothing short of ludicrous. They cited an Arizona statute that stated: "If one half of an entry runs after the other half is scratched then no wagers shall be refunded. " They concluded their letter to me with: "We hope this clears up any confusion on your part."

[Rick Ransom]

PaceGuy,

Do you live in AZ or play from out of state? The only thing I can say about TuP is that it's not as bad as it used to be. But, despite all of the obstacles, it has always been a very profitable track for me. Maybe in another 10 years we'll get phone betting here if they survive the ownership scandals and competition from casinos.

[takeout]

Originally posted by PaceGuy
They cited an Arizona statute that stated: "If one half of an entry runs after the other half is scratched then no wagers shall be refunded. "
They shouldn't let them just scratch one half of an entry. If they enter an entry then they ought to run an entry or run nothing. That might help stop some of the shenanigans. Or, better yet, do away with entries altogether.

I once tried to redeem a pick-3 ticket because of a scratch. Oops! What was I thinking? :confused: I don't fool with them much anymore. I'm not too crazy about bets where you don't get your money back when your horse is scratched.

[PaceGuy]

Rick,

I live in AZ. Turf Paradise has always been a profitable track for me as well. I had a phone account with Connecticut OTB as a way of getting full track odds on simulcast wagers before Turf Paradise started comingling the pools. I can't recall how many times in years past I was able to nail a nice winner at SA or HOL that paid say $25.00 there, only to get $16.00 here. In late 1999 the AZ Racing Commission sent a letter to all of the known companies operating phone accounts (including Connecticut OTB) asking them not to take wagers from Arizona residents because the concept of phone wagering was in violation of AZ statutes. At the time, Connecticut OTB closed my account and mailed me a check for my account balance. I generally prefer to go to the track rather than play at home. Being in that atmosphere helps get my competitive spirit going and brings my intensity up. I tend to enjoy a day at the races more than a day spent around the house. Having phone wagering was nice, but as long as they don't go back to separate pools, I'm okay without it.

[PaceGuy]

Takeout-

I agree. Make them do away with entries altogether. How many times have you thought you might get good odds on a sleeper horse- only to find out that it was coupled as part of an entry with a logical (on paper only)favorite? Goodbye value.

Of course there are those rare times when you bet your horse and watch it spit out the bit turning for home- only to be saved when the other half of the entry manages to win.

But I agree. I say do away with entries altogether.

[superfecta]

Just remember guys, if your horse was not scratched,what chance would he have of winning?Slim to none?
How many times have you bet on a horse and he ran like he SHOULD have been scratched?

[SAL]

I agree. Whenever I see someone I know at the track cursing that their horse was scratched in the post parade or at the gate, I tell them to consider themselves fortunate. Vets don't scratch sound horses during the warmups. I for one don't like short fields, but I don't want to bet on a horse if it's not sound or ready to go.

[PaceGuy]

I know intuitively that you guys are right. If a horse is sound they are not going to scratch him. It's just frustrating when you spot a horse on paper that you like, look at the toteboard and see that the public is ignoring him, watch him go through the post parade and warmups, get in line and make your bet, and then have him scratched with about a minute before post time. Sigh... What can you do?

[hdcper]

PaceGuy and Rick Ransom,

Like both of you, I attend Turf Paradise regularly on weekends. However this weekend, I will only be in attendance on Sunday and thought maybe we could at least say hi. It is always nice to put a face to a post.

I generally sit in the Player's Club and should be easy to spot with my laptop.

Hope we get a chance to meet,

Hdcper

[Rick Ransom]

PaceGuy,

That makes three of us in the neighborhood. I'd rather bet live too but I don't get a chance to go on a regular basis. I also had a Connecticut OTB account that was closed. I was able to get bets down pretty late using that system so it was a big loss. The state and track really should get into the phone wagering business rather than fighting it. I'd rather support racing here than use any of the other alternatives. Do you know if Casino Arizona will be carrying Turf Paradise?

[Rick Ransom]

hdcper,

Wow, make that four of us in AZ if Barchyman's still out there. I can't go this weekend but would be interested in setting up a meeting sometime later. Barchyman and I did that a few months ago and it was fun.

[hdcper]

Rick,

Sounds like a plan at a later date.


Hdcper

[Barchyman]

Originally posted by PaceGuy


In fact, I was once so incensed after making a losing bet on the scratched half of an entry that I THOUGHT was running that I took the time to write a letter to Turf Paradise Management asking them why they were giving misleading information out to their patrons.

The reply from them was nothing short of ludicrous. They cited an Arizona statute that stated: "If one half of an entry runs after the other half is scratched then no wagers shall be refunded. " They concluded their letter to me with: "We hope this clears up any confusion on your part."

How recent was this? Since Randy Fozzard and Co. took over? I've found this group to be one of the most responsive track managements. The only exception to that is the current marketing guy - I've written him two or three times with no reply.

As for me, I'm very much looking forward to opening day on Friday at TuP. My partners and I are running our cheap maiden (Snowonelikeyou) in Sunday's 3rd - so we hope to christen opening weekend with a win.

Tom

[Barchyman]

Just saw the other replies from Rick, PaceGuy and hdcper.

One of my other partners and I have a season table for the weekends in the clubhouse at TuP. Table 405 (if I remember the number right - names on the table are Bartzsch & Wilson).

Please stop by and say hello. I'm sure we've seen each other many times and just don't know it.

Hope to see you there! It was a real pleasure to meet Rick and his wife - and I look forward to meeting any other TuP regulars.

Tom

[PaceGuy]

Barchyman-

The time frame of their letter to me was shortly after they implemented full card comingled simulcasting- sometime in the spring of 2000. I have had other "issues" with Turf Paradise Management. I must admit that each of those were handled in a straightforward, sensible, and professional manner. This incident has to be the only time in my life that I have taken the time to write a letter to track management about something that seems so obvious only to come up with a response from them that just so completely leaves me scratching my head. I wasn't asking for a refund on the losing bet - nothing of the sort- I just wanted them to realize that they were providing false and misleading information to their bettors and to consider the possibility of making ALL the scratches known- whether coupled as part of an entry or not.

[FortuneHunter]

For the Saratoga 2001 Meet (36 days), 3440 entries (after Program Numbers assigned at 3:00pm day before), 2841 actually started, 599 scratched.

17.4% Scratches

Note: Saratoga 2001 was rare in that there was only 3 days the track was off. Very few of the 599 scratches were due to "off the turf" or off track.

Note: There is no distinction between "noon time scratches" or "post time" scratches in the numbers above.

Observation on coupled entries at NYRA: If you handicap a race and you like a horse who is POE, bet the other half if the half you like gets scratched. We find that this is a good play in most cases.

Scratches are a necessary evil if you want full fields. However, they need to get the scratches out by at least 10:00am on Raceday. It probably didn't matter years ago, but now with handicappers running programs and making printed sheets and selections, it would be a great help, especially for those who actually go to the track.

I also think that the data providers could get the results data files out within an hour after the last race. We are experimenting with database table driven selection algorithms and it would be nice to be able to "refresh" the tables with the previous days results the night before.