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View Full Version : Derby Contenders with Derby winners in pedigree,


turninforhome10
04-21-2011, 03:42 AM
Well I have been going into my usual pre Derby pedigree analysis and without boring everyone with blah blah third dam kinda stuff, I thought you would enjoy a simple report on all the contenders with Ky or Eng derby winners or 2000 Guineas in their first three generations. Just gonna use the bloodhorse profiles and go downwards.

1) Dialed In- Seattle Slew
2) The Factor -0
3) Midnite Interlude-0
4)Brilliant Speed-Roberto
5)Archarcharch-0
6)Master of Hounds- Northern Dancer, Sadlers Wells
7)Toby's Corner-0
8)Uncle Mo-0
9)Nehro- Seattle Slew
10)Mucho Macho Man-0
11) Shackleford -Unbridled
12)Soldat- Northern Dancer
13)Animal Kingdom-Dancing Brave
14)Pants On Fire- Seattle Slew
15)Stay Thirsty- Seattle Slew Northern Dancer Roberto
16)Jaycito-0
17)Decisive Moment-0
18)Watch Me Go-0
19)JP s Gusto-0
20)Twice The Appeal-0
21)Santiva-0
22)Twinspired-Affirmed Sadlers Wells

Had to put all the boys in my database so I thought I would share.
My questions to discuss
why the a lack of Derby Winners in pedigrees
who was your favorite Derby winner mentioned above
Who wins the Derby on pedigree or if pedigree is even important his years grab bag.
Hope you enjoy this and good luck. Personally Master of Hounds has a very impressive pedigree as does Stay Thirsty. Master of Hounds is my pick if he takes to the dirt, His second in Dubai showed how game he is and the filly that beat him could the real deal. And I wish Stay Thirsty would grow a pair and run to his pedigree.

turninforhome10
04-21-2011, 03:47 AM
My favorite Derby winner was by far Unbridled. Mrs Gentry always makes me cry.

redshift1
04-21-2011, 04:26 AM
Seattle Slew, by the way what's your evaluation of Mineshaft as a sire do you think his progeny will be successful closing in 10-12 furlong races.

Sekrah
04-21-2011, 04:30 AM
Analyzing pedigree by "Derby winners in the bloodline" is a pretty poor way to go about it. There's plenty of horses out there who have won G1 races at classic distances. The Derby is just 1 race.

I can't remember too many serious Derby contenders with Midnight Interlude's Blushing Groom pedigree.

2009 Musket Man - 3rd at 19-1
2008 Recapturetheglory- 5th at 49-1
2002 Congaree - 3rd after setting the fastest opening mile in Derby history.


Archarcharch and Santiva both are pretty deep stamina-wise as well although without a Derby winner.

redshift1
04-21-2011, 04:44 AM
As far as Master of Hounds and Stay Thirsty despite their breeding I'm tossing both.

Master of Hounds: UAE and Euro shippers rarely maintain their form in the Derby. First time on dirt a question mark but some nice races and more interesting than Stay Thirsty who appears slower than his stablemate the former next wonder horse.

turninforhome10
04-21-2011, 04:54 AM
Not really trying to handicap the derby using pedigrees. Just making an observation while I was updating my pedigree database and thought we might get a little light hearted commentary during a stressful time in the handicapping biz. Don't really want to get into dosage and all that as I study pedigrees for a living. Just after four hours of updating, I am cross eyed and just would like to start a friendly thread with a little reflection from a pretty deep insightful pool of horseplayers and fans of the sport.

turninforhome10
04-21-2011, 05:36 AM
Based on stoutness of pedigree and GSW in family it is hard to fault Brilliant Speed, His pedigree is brilliant, full of quality and a Dynaformer to boot. I got burned by Concerned. And a lot will ride on pace as he will probably be near Dialed In. Sentimentally and longshot speaking any one notice how Twinspired -Affirned has been maturing. He is a pretty game little horse who has been getting a little better each race and noticed that he came back after the wire in the BG to get a head in front at the 7/8ths and looked to have a beautiful cruising action down the lane on head on. Might have found his niche with Albarado as Robby could use a big horse right about now.

Dark Bay
04-21-2011, 02:18 PM
If the last 10 derbies reveal anything, it's that a contrarian approach to established breeding profiles can be profitable. Every derby winner since 2001 had at least one of the following profiles. Only # 4 would be viewed as positive by breeding experts.

1. First or second crop (2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009)
2. Sire with no wins over 7F (2008)
3. High Dosage (2005)
4. Derby(US or English) winning sire in first 2 generations:(2006,2010)


2011

1.The Factor (1)
2.Toby's Corner (1)
3. Stay Thirsty (1)
4. Animal Kingdom (1)
5. Soldat (1)
6. Pants on Fire (2)
7. Brilliant Speed (4)
8. Shackleford (4)

Dark Bay
04-21-2011, 02:39 PM
#4 - Should also include Sire of previous derby winner.

Robert Fischer
04-21-2011, 03:24 PM
Not really trying to handicap the derby using pedigrees. Just making an observation while I was updating my pedigree database and thought we might get a little light hearted commentary during a stressful time in the handicapping biz. Don't really want to get into dosage and all that as I study pedigrees for a living. Just after four hours of updating, I am cross eyed and just would like to start a friendly thread with a little reflection from a pretty deep insightful pool of horseplayers and fans of the sport.

I think it's a fun topic.

as an addition I think it would be interesting to go back and consider not just the winners but the "best" horses in each of the major classic races considered. This may be too comprehensive, but would open up even more debate.

turninforhome10
04-22-2011, 01:01 AM
I think it's a fun topic.

as an addition I think it would be interesting to go back and consider not just the winners but the "best" horses in each of the major classic races considered. This may be too comprehensive, but would open up even more debate.


Kind of who our favorite Derby winner was or something of that nature or maybe even our favorite Derby. My favorite Derby was Go For Gin not because of him persay but because my Hero Charlie Whittingham had Strodes Creek and I wanted to see Charlie win so bad so I could say I saw a Whittingham Derby winner. It was my first Derby as true horseplayer and I remember handicapping till the wee hours of the morning only to get thrown completely off by the mud.

nearco
04-23-2011, 07:40 PM
Well I have been going into my usual pre Derby pedigree analysis and without boring everyone with blah blah third dam kinda stuff, I thought you would enjoy a simple report on all the contenders with Ky or Eng derby winners or 2000 Guineas in their first three generations. Just gonna use the bloodhorse profiles and go downwards.

1) Dialed In- Seattle Slew
2) The Factor -0
3) Midnite Interlude-0 --- Blushing Groom
4)Brilliant Speed-Roberto
5)Archarcharch-0 --- Nureyev
6)Master of Hounds- Northern Dancer, Sadlers Wells --- Kingmambo
7)Toby's Corner-0
8)Uncle Mo-0
9)Nehro- Seattle Slew
10)Mucho Macho Man-0 --- Blushing Groom
11) Shackleford -Unbridled
12)Soldat- Northern Dancer
13)Animal Kingdom-Dancing Brave -- Blushing Groom, Acatenango, Surumu
14)Pants On Fire- Seattle Slew
15)Stay Thirsty- Seattle Slew Northern Dancer Roberto
16)Jaycito-0
17)Decisive Moment-0
18)Watch Me Go-0
19)JP s Gusto-0
20)Twice The Appeal-0
21)Santiva-0
22)Twinspired-Affirmed Sadlers Wells



The 2000 Guineas that Sadlers Wells won was the Irish 2000 Guineas, he was 4th in the English 2000 Guineas behind his stable mate El Gran Senor (amazing field that day).

Kingmambo won Poule D'essai Des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), as did Blushing Groom in 1974.

Nureyev finished first in the 2000 Guineas in 1980, but was DQ-ed in one of the worst decisions in racing history.

Stretching things a little, but Acatenango and Surumu both won the Duetches Derby (German Derby).

nearco
05-07-2011, 07:08 PM
1) Animal Kingdom------ Dancing Brave -- Blushing Groom, Acatenango, Surumu
2) Nehro------ Seattle Slew
3) Mucho Macho Man ----------- Blushing Groom
4) Shackleford -------Unbridled
5) Master of Hounds ------- Northern Dancer, Sadlers Wells --- Kingmambo