View Full Version : Quantifying a hypothesis about FTS winners through data?
Milkshaker
04-20-2011, 06:16 PM
When handicapping races involving first-time starters that broke their maidens in their last start, I have always had a personal bias in favor of horses who won a debut at 7f (meaning I upgrade their performance because I think it is a difficult feat to win a debut at that particular middle distance).
Do any of the database specialists on this site have any info that would either support or refute my hunch?
(ie--What percentage of 7f debut maiden winners come back to win a next start as compared to FTS who debut and win at other distances?)
Thanks in advance for any help.
Here is what I get for win percent in second start for groups of debut winners by distance:
Debut Win Dist next race win pct
1 1/16 MILES 15.09%
1 MILE 17.14%
5 1/2 FURLONGS 15.74%
5 FURLONGS 16.97%
6 1/2 FURLONGS 17.97%
6 FURLONGS 18.85%
7 FURLONGS 15.76%
First time winners seem to do well in general but 7 furlong winners are not apparently better than others.
FreeExperience
04-20-2011, 07:18 PM
Here is what I get for win percent in second start for groups of debut winners by distance:
Debut Win Dist next race win pct
1 1/16 MILES 15.09%
1 MILE 17.14%
5 1/2 FURLONGS 15.74%
5 FURLONGS 16.97%
6 1/2 FURLONGS 17.97%
6 FURLONGS 18.85%
7 FURLONGS 15.76%
First time winners seem to do well in general but 7 furlong winners are not apparently better than others.
Is this from a personal database of yours or a subscription? If it's a subscription, where is it to?
Milkshaker
04-20-2011, 07:29 PM
Thanks for the prompt reply and great info, SJK.
Now we'll find out if I am smart enough to let the data trump my mental bias.
Sekrah
04-20-2011, 08:21 PM
Milkshaker,
Think of it this way to trick your mind: Since 7f is a difficult distance for maidens, then a win by a maiden is not all that impressive since the rest of the field was likely in poor shape to win such a race.
plainolebill
04-20-2011, 11:15 PM
I've always thought that trainers entered horses with less early speed in 7F maiden races.
The ROI on debut winners returning in their second starts is quite poor. Almost uniformly modest payoffs when they win, which isn't nearly often enough.
pondman
04-21-2011, 01:17 PM
(ie--What percentage of 7f debut maiden winners come back to win a next start as compared to FTS who debut and win at other distances?)
Thanks in advance for any help.
Are you talking high end, restricted maiden races?
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