Simple rules for elimination of a horse from a bet

[BIG49010]

I have several simple rules for elimination of a horse, and wondered if others had some they would share.

Here are a few that I use, that I have picked up over the years, but keep in mind I only bet to win.

1. I don't bet any Maiden that has started more than 4 times, so if today is his 4th Start, he better win! The only exceptions I make to this rule, is if there has been a claim or a trainer change then I start the counting at the change.

2. I eliminate a horse if his record at the current track and distance is 0 for 4 or more.

3. Trainers and Jockeys with records below 5% at the meeting, I am playing.

4. Eliminate multiple horses, if 4 or more have the same running style. (E, EP, P, or S)


I hope this will generate some interest, and others can use this also.

[Greyfox]

3. Trainers and Jockeys with records below 5% at the meeting, I am playing.

.

Huh? I want pretty good odds before touching steeds with these connections and you're playing them???:confused:

[senortout]

Huh? I want pretty good odds before touching steeds with these connections and you're playing them???:confused:

Poorly worded sentence, but I'm sure he didn't mean the comma there.

[Greyfox]

Poorly worded sentence, but I'm sure he didn't mean the comma there.

Even without the comma, he's playing them. I'm not, except in most unusual circumstances.

[BIG49010]

Poorly worded sentence, but I'm sure he didn't mean the comma there.

I am not playing them, and yes I worded the sentence poorly.


What I was trying to say is a jockey might be 20% win at Tampa, but when he comes to Gulfstream he is below 5%, I throw him out.

[Greyfox]

A horse laid off one year or more is an automatic toss. If it beats you, it beats you. Most of the time it's a losing bet.

P.S. I think Alphabet Soup was away for a ridiculously long time and came back and won a Breeders' Cup race -(If memory serves correctly.)- so there are exceptions.

[BIG49010]

Alan Iwinski won on Friday with a horse off 505 days, he had a win about a month ago with a horse off 419 days.

Tricks to all trades, as they say.

[CBedo]

1. I don't bet any Maiden that has started more than 4 times, so if today is his 4th Start, he better win! The only exceptions I make to this rule, is if there has been a claim or a trainer change then I start the counting at the change.Just for fun, I pulled samples from a small development database.

For maiden special weights, your four race elimination rule seems to get most of the winners (87.2%), but you might want to give the maiden claimers a little more time (69.8%).

NOTE: This doesn't take into account claims or trainer changes, which would presumably give you a higher percentage of winners in each category.

Maiden Special Weight
Starts Wins %of Total Wins
0 1165 27.6%
1 1028 52.0%
2 707 68.7%
3 475 80.0%
4 303 87.2%
5 231 92.6%
6 119 95.5%
7 78 97.3%
8 56 98.6%
9 29 99.3%
10 13 99.6%
11 10 99.9%
12 4 100.0%
13 2 100.0%

4220

Maiden Claiming
Starts Wins %of Total Wins
0 1108 14.6%
1 1230 30.8%
2 1089 45.1%
3 1015 58.5%
4 860 69.8%
5 686 78.9%
6 491 85.3%
7 365 90.1%
8 277 93.8%
9 182 96.2%
10 112 97.6%
11 78 98.7%
12 41 99.2%
13 36 99.7%
14 13 99.9%
15 9 100.0%
16 2 100.0%

7594

[BIG49010]

Just for fun, I pulled samples from a small development database.

For maiden special weights, your four race elimination rule seems to get most of the winners (87.2%), but you might want to give the maiden claimers a little more time (69.8%).

NOTE: This doesn't take into account claims or trainer changes, which would presumably give you a higher percentage of winners in each category.



Thanks for the input, I'll have to do some testing on MC races in my database and see if I can come up with a new rule.

[cnollfan]

CBedo,

Thanks for posting the database query.

The way that I am interpreting those stats is that first-starters and second-starters are much more well-meant in MSW than in MCl. After that, there isn't much difference.

And an extrapolation from that would be that it is somewhat unusual for a good, well-meant horse with a promising future to remain a maiden past its second start.

Are these interpretations valid?

[cccorona]

Thanks Big for your insight. Especially like the rule on the pace/running styles. Below are the rules I use for my check list in eliminating weak contenders.

1. No activity in 21 days.

2. Won last race and no activity in last 30 days

3. layoff of 46 days or more unless the trainer is 20% or better with this angle.

4. If layoff over 90 days (trainer 20%) must show an in the money previous performance

5. Entered for a claiming price below the purchase price

6. If claimed last race must be with a trainer 20% or better with this angle

7. Finished in the back half of field in last two races

8. Must show an in the money finish in one of last three races

9. Eliminate any horse that shows no wins in last 10 races

10. Dropping in class after a win or a close up finish (less than 1 length)

11. Not raised in class after win

12. Switching to a surface or distance it has never handled well

13. Final time figure is getting progressively worse

14. Horse dropping 50% in claiming price

15. Won a maiden claiming race last race or second to last race.

16. Lost lengths in the stretch in most recent race.

These negative factors have been gleaned from many sources including Jim Quinn, Dick Mitchell, Tom Brohamer and Randy Giles just to name a few.

CC

[cnollfan]

I have lots of elimination rules but they vary depending on the conditions of the race. I don't necessarily employ these as absolute eliminations. They are more like starting out with two strikes:


Layoff after a win.
Long layoff for a previous winner (OTOH, I love long layoffs for lightly-raced maidens).
4 year old or older who just won a non-state-bred N1X allowance.
7 year old or older without a recent win.
3 year old that has failed to exceed its best 2 year old performance.
Maiden that sold for more than $500k.
Excluding turf and polytrack races, front-runner at low odds with 1/8 or worse winning %.
Maiden that wore blinkers in its first start.
Horse that gained lengths but lost position in the last call, e.g. 2-3, 3-1.
Low % connections in non-maiden claiming races unless they have won with this specific horse.
Horse exiting marathon.
Big fig horse stepping up in class after setting a slow pace (recent example: Uncle Mo)

[Greyfox]

16. Lost lengths in the stretch in most recent race.


CC

The above angle would have eliminated #9 Archarcharch in The Arkansas Derby, who I played by the way. ($52 and coin Win)

[jamey1977]

Thanks Big for your insight. Especially like the rule on the pace/running styles. Below are the rules I use for my check list in eliminating weak contenders.

1. No activity in 21 days.

2. Won last race and no activity in last 30 days

3. layoff of 46 days or more unless the trainer is 20% or better with this angle.

4. If layoff over 90 days (trainer 20%) must show an in the money previous performance

5. Entered for a claiming price below the purchase price

6. If claimed last race must be with a trainer 20% or better with this angle

7. Finished in the back half of field in last two races

8. Must show an in the money finish in one of last three races

9. Eliminate any horse that shows no wins in last 10 races

10. Dropping in class after a win or a close up finish (less than 1 length)

11. Not raised in class after win

12. Switching to a surface or distance it has never handled well

13. Final time figure is getting progressively worse

14. Horse dropping 50% in claiming price

15. Won a maiden claiming race last race or second to last race.

16. Lost lengths in the stretch in most recent race.

These negative factors have been gleaned from many sources including Jim Quinn, Dick Mitchell, Tom Brohamer and Randy Giles just to name a few.

CC
Good Rules. What do you do with the Beyer Numbers? I find horses with 2 or 3 starts have upside to the Beyers. Some have won at 11 to 1 on their 3rd or 4th start and they were 27 Beyer points away from the favorites highest Beyer of his last 3 races. The horses won anyway. I bet the longshots, but I hate wasting money. What are your rules, in terms of The Beyer ratings or whichever ones you use ?

[CBedo]

CBedo,

Thanks for posting the database query.

The way that I am interpreting those stats is that first-starters and second-starters are much more well-meant in MSW than in MCl. After that, there isn't much difference.

And an extrapolation from that would be that it is somewhat unusual for a good, well-meant horse with a promising future to remain a maiden past its second start.

Are these interpretations valid?I'm not sure if they are valid or not, but they definitely seem logical. I have always discounted most (except a few trainers) maiden claimer first time starters. My interpretation isn't so much that they aren't well meant, as much as they just probably dont have much talent. If you were an owner/trainer and had a horse with any semblance of talent, wouldn't you want to try to find out what you had before you put him up for sale?

[cj]

The truth is there are no eliminations that are simple for one race. However, if you eliminate certain types of horses over the long run your ROI will improve.

For example, in races at < 6f, I would never bet a horse I designate with an "S" (deep closer) running style. They return 55 cents per dollar bet. A few win, but I doubt anyone is clever enough to pick enough of them to overcome that type of disadvantage.

[thaskalos]

Although I am not an "angle" player...I have noticed certain "obscure" situations in which horses seem decidedly disadvantaged:


HORSES WHO RAN A LOWER SPEED FIGURE THAN USUAL IN THEIR LAST RACE, WHILE DROPPING IN CLASS. -- Horses dropping in class should run BETTER - not worse - than usual. A declining performance while dropping in class often indicates "damaged goods".

HORSES WHOSE TWO MOST RECENT RACES HAVE EARNED THE TWO HIGHEST SPEED FIGURES SHOWN IN THE PAST PERFORMANCES. -- This is the best indicator of a "bounce" that I have ever seen.

WHEN A HORSE RETURNS FROM A LAYOFF, DON'T LOOK AT THE TRAINER'S LAYOFF STATS WHEN ASSESSING ITS WINNING CHANCES...LOOK AT THE WAY THIS HORSE HAS BEEN CAMPAIGNED IN THE PAST. -- Trainers are creatures of habit. When they always race a horse every two or three weeks...a layoff is a negative factor. This horse is not likely to run well off the layoff today...regardless of what the trainer's layoff stats say.

[cccorona]

The above angle would have eliminated #9 Archarcharch in The Arkansas Derby, who I played by the way. ($52 and coin Win)

You are so right ! Archarcharch lost 2.5 lengths in the Rebel (bet him in the Rebel :mad:) but did not lose any lengths. Great job on that win!

[cccorona]

Good Rules. What do you do with the Beyer Numbers? I find horses with 2 or 3 starts have upside to the Beyers. Some have won at 11 to 1 on their 3rd or 4th start and they were 27 Beyer points away from the favorites highest Beyer of his last 3 races. The horses won anyway. I bet the longshots, but I hate wasting money. What are your rules, in terms of The Beyer ratings or whichever ones you use ?

jamey - I am glad you like the rules. I do not use the Beyer numbers and have not looked seriously at a DRF form for many years. The PP's I use are from Paceappraiser generated by through Brisnet. I am a pace player, by and large, and use Brisnet's Prime Power numbers to separate contenders when close. I know what you mean by lightly raced horses improving rapidly in their third or forth start. Especially three year olds!

[DeoVolente]

Just a few rules.

Never bet a favorite off a year or more layoff.
Never bet a horse exiting a fast and winning 5 furlong race going longer.
Never bet a sudden tail swisher.

[plainolebill]

The only hard and fast rule I can think of is never bet a horse to do something he's never done before at a short price.

Other than that most of the rules listed above have exceptions. I'll give you an example - Doug O'neall is deadly with horses that have been off more than 6 months and many times you can get a pretty good price. I wouldn't be betting one at a low price but jack the odds up a little and I'm in.

[JustRalph]

how in hells creation do you get through a race card? Applying all of these rules? Software? and if so,,,,,,,what's it called?




Thanks Big for your insight. Especially like the rule on the pace/running styles. Below are the rules I use for my check list in eliminating weak contenders.

1. No activity in 21 days.

2. Won last race and no activity in last 30 days

3. layoff of 46 days or more unless the trainer is 20% or better with this angle.

4. If layoff over 90 days (trainer 20%) must show an in the money previous performance

5. Entered for a claiming price below the purchase price

6. If claimed last race must be with a trainer 20% or better with this angle

7. Finished in the back half of field in last two races

8. Must show an in the money finish in one of last three races

9. Eliminate any horse that shows no wins in last 10 races

10. Dropping in class after a win or a close up finish (less than 1 length)

11. Not raised in class after win

12. Switching to a surface or distance it has never handled well

13. Final time figure is getting progressively worse

14. Horse dropping 50% in claiming price

15. Won a maiden claiming race last race or second to last race.

16. Lost lengths in the stretch in most recent race.

These negative factors have been gleaned from many sources including Jim Quinn, Dick Mitchell, Tom Brohamer and Randy Giles just to name a few.

CC

[pondman]

1. I don't bet any Maiden that has started more than 4 times, so if today is his 4th Start, he better win! The only exceptions I make to this rule, is if there has been a claim or a trainer change then I start the counting at the change.

I violate this one on a regular bases. I frequently bet maidens. When the horse is ready-- it's ready.

[pondman]

A horse laid off one year or more is an automatic toss..

I played $300 on Alonso (owned by JS MOSS) at GG in November. Hadn't run in 22 months. Paid $36. I don't recommend the automatic toss.

[pondman]

15. Won a maiden claiming race last race or second to last race.

CC

This is my big longshot play at N. California Fairs. Like them off a maiden claimers. Prefer to see the same jockey. Stretching is great. Even will take them coming back in 8 or 9 days.

[pondman]

I routinely throw out a horse if:

A high percentage jockey gets off and a low percentage jockey gets on, and the high percentage jockey is still on the card, but not in the same race.

[CBedo]

I violate this one on a regular bases. I frequently bet maidens. When the horse is ready-- it's ready.I think there is always value to be found, knowing when to violate the "automatic" throwout. I guess the key is knowing when.

[A. Pineda]

I think there is always value to be found, knowing when to violate the "automatic" throwout. I guess the key is knowing when.

No automatic throw-outs for me. They're all contenders - the uglier the better. I want a runner that no one will play, a runner with a no-name trainer and a 3% jockey. And yes, you must have patience, as these types (= ability to win this particular race) don't come around every day.

[cnollfan]

CBedo,

I hit an $812 trifecta for 50 cents at Keeneland today thanks to your MSW database post. The horse Papagayo has been on my watch list for several months after he ran on the boggy part of the Fair Grounds turf course. When I am betting longshots, besides making win bets I look to hedge them in 2nd and 3rd in the exacta and trifecta. In the past I would have used 0 for 7 Santo Gato and 0 for 5 Ordained in my hedge, but I x-d them out today and opted to toss in a couple of first-starters instead, one of whom ran second. Thanks!

[Robert Goren]

If you are going to get a boxcar price you have to violate some rules. That being said, I hate horses who set the pace in the last race and was caught by one or more the horses he is running against today. I am always amazed by how low of odds these types go off at.

[Tom]

Agree, Bobby...you need to put some ugly in your spot plays.
An old time HTR player used to say you needed one rule to make them look bad.

Like, one of top three Beyers last race, but finished out of the money.

[fmolf]

Agree, Bobby...you need to put some ugly in your spot plays.
An old time HTR player used to say you needed one rule to make them look bad.

Like, one of top three Beyers last race, but finished out of the money.
i look for a faster than normal(for this horse)first fraction or last fraction or even a faster than usual middle move that does not result in a higher speed figure.Improving speed figure horses are always overbet.My only automatic elimination rule is to not have any.In my experience nothing was or ever will be automatic in this game.