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View Full Version : I need to take a math class re SA pick 6


Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 07:53 PM
Help me out here guys, i must be doing something wrong but i'm not sure what.

Here's the situation.

Heading into SA's last race today, the total 'giveback' of the pick 6 was about 60 grand. The total pool was 114k.

The winning horse, who went off as the favorite was paying about 3300 for 2. There was a late scratch in the race of the 5 horse. The 5 horse's probable payout before the scratch was 20k, which leads me to believe there were 3 'alive' tickets on this runner. So, when she scratches, her 3 tickets get transferred to the betting favorite, which ended up winning the race.

THe winning pick 6 paid 2,100 for 2.

It seemed that before the scratch, the winning horse had approximately 18 alive tickets on her, with the scratch, you add 3 more making the total 21. With 21 winners and about 60k giveback, the winning price should be approx 2,800 and not 2,100.

Can someone tell me what i'm doing wrong mathwise? I know there must be a simple explanation, i just can't see what it is.

Southieboy
04-14-2011, 08:36 PM
How are they still in business?

chickenhead
04-14-2011, 10:12 PM
If the favorite ultimately paid $2100, and the scratched horse would have paid $20K....the fav was paying $2300 pre-scratch, not $3300. Maybe you just saw that number wrong.

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 10:26 PM
If the favorite ultimately paid $2100, and the scratched horse would have paid $20K....the fav was paying $2300 pre-scratch, not $3300. Maybe you just saw that number wrong.

No, it was over 3 grand. The same thing happened in the pick 6 on March 27 at SA when the favorite in the last race, who was paying 25k before the scratch went all the way down to 16,800 after some hopeless longshot got scratched at the gate.

chickenhead
04-14-2011, 10:33 PM
its a mystery then...the math and the rules are pretty straightforward.

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 11:27 PM
its a mystery then...the math and the rules are pretty straightforward.

There's gotta be an answer, hopefully its not past posting.

Mineshaft
04-14-2011, 11:29 PM
Total pool was 114K and payout was 60K. So takeout is almost 50%?

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 11:33 PM
Total pool was 114K and payout was 60K. So takeout is almost 50%?

25% go to consos. So, after takeout, which is what, 23%?, the remaining money gets divided 75/25.

Mineshaft
04-14-2011, 11:37 PM
25% go to consos. So, after takeout, which is what, 23%?, the remaining money gets divided 75/25.




conso?

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 11:38 PM
conso?

Yeah, they always pay off on 5 of 6 whether someone hits it or not. So, there's the winning payoff and a conso. Maybe conso isnt the right word, but that's the word i use....kind of like a consolation prize if you have ALMOST picked 6.

Mineshaft
04-14-2011, 11:41 PM
Yeah, they always pay off on 5 of 6 whether someone hits it or not. So, there's the winning payoff and a conso. Maybe conso isnt the right word, but that's the word i use....kind of like a consolation prize if you have ALMOST picked 6.




Ok i got it i guess SA is the only track that does this or do they all do it? I dont play Pick 6 so thats why im asking.


Thats weird a consolation and a winning payoff.

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 11:43 PM
Ok i got it i guess SA is the only track that does this or do they all do it? I dont play Pick 6 so thats why im asking.


Thats weird a consolation and a winning payoff.

I'm pretty sure most pick 6 tracks do this.

This is why if you actually hit the pick 6 on a huge ticket, you make out like a bandit because you get the actual payoff and a whole bunch of consos.

rwwupl
04-14-2011, 11:52 PM
There's gotta be an answer, hopefully its not past posting.

I will have it checked out by the CHRB... When they respond I will pass it on to you.

rw

Stillriledup
04-14-2011, 11:58 PM
I will have it checked out by the CHRB... When they respond I will pass it on to you.

rw

Thanks.

Total Pool was 114k.

Total comeback was about 60k for the winners.

Winning favorite was paying about 3300 give or take according to the payouts listed on the santa anita feed.

Horse that was scratched was paying 20k, so she had 3 alive tickets.

My math had the payoff going from 3300 to approx 2800 when you add 3 tickets to the winning horse.

Pick 6 paid 2100.

Thanks Rog.

(this same thing happened in the March 27th pick 6 at SA, where a longshot got scratched late and the favorite's price went from 25,000 to 16,800)

HuggingTheRail
04-15-2011, 12:20 AM
In the first leg, race 3, the 4 was scratched and the favoured 5 won

Maybe the $3300 posted was only based on that 5 horse, they hadn't factored in the payouts due to the tickets with that 4 horse?? :confused:

Stillriledup
04-15-2011, 12:46 AM
In the first leg, race 3, the 4 was scratched and the favoured 5 won

Maybe the $3300 posted was only based on that 5 horse, they hadn't factored in the payouts due to the tickets with that 4 horse?? :confused:

I dont think so because that 4 was scratched pretty early, it wasnt a late scratch, she was scratched well before the pick 6 started.

Also, if there was no late scratches in the last race, the winning bet would have paid 3300 or thereabouts.....so, that tells me there was about 18 live tickets with the winner, that was locked in stone and wasnt going to change.

RXB
04-15-2011, 01:00 AM
I did the math and there are precisely 30 winning tickets.

If other horses were scratched after Pick-6 betting opens but before the payouts are shown prior to the final race, they can't include those wagers in the payouts in advance because betting favouritism can't be confirmed until after wagering closes on the last race.

RXB
04-15-2011, 01:18 AM
And now I can all but assure you that the premise above is what indeed happened, because I just looked at the SA card for the first time. Eight entries in the last race but four of them scratched, including the two heavy ML faves (8/5 & 9/5). So there were several tickets live to other scratched horses, which can't be apportioned in the payouts until after betting is closed and the favourite is determined.

Stillriledup
04-15-2011, 01:43 AM
And now I can all but assure you that the premise above is what indeed happened, because I just looked at the SA card for the first time. Eight entries in the last race but four of them scratched, including the two heavy ML faves (8/5 & 9/5). So there were several tickets live to other scratched horses, which can't be apportioned in the payouts until after betting is closed and the favourite is determined.

I guess there are people who are wagering hours before scratch time, there are people who are putting in tickets before any scratches are announced....and the last race did have two horses under 2-1 ML that were scratched before the pick 6 even started, at least an hour beforehand.

I guess i shouldnt have assumed that people would be smart enough not to bet pick 6's at 9am.

chickenhead
04-15-2011, 01:49 AM
good call RXB. Late scratches can cause confusion, even when they come early.

Stillriledup
04-15-2011, 01:55 AM
good call RXB. Late scratches can cause confusion, even when they come early.

They just need to change the rule that says that any horse scratched before the first leg is run, the entire bet is a refund. There's really no reason that someone who bet at 9am should be transferred to the post time favorite. This particular person who bet this early has every opportunity to change in his ticket and get a different horse or get a refund altogether.

chickenhead
04-15-2011, 11:12 AM
Yes they should.

On a side topic, I was reading the California proposed amendment to the rules to eliminate coupled entries -- which got me reading the late scratch rules in relation to the Pick 3. The rules look fine for a late scratch in either the second or third leg, but I think there is something wrong with their rules as it relates to if there are late scratches in BOTH the 2nd and 3rd leg of a pick 3.

If there is a late scratch in the 2nd or 3rd leg the consolation pool is built from any and all tickets that had the scratched horse on it. Conso winner is whoever in that conso pool of tickets had the other two winners. Makes sense and it comes out fair.

What happens tho when there are scratches in BOTH the 2nd and 3rd leg gets a little confusing, however. The conso pool is built only from tickets that had the winner in the 1st, and any of the scratched horses hooked up with it. I do not see the logic of this, at first (and second) glance it would seem to cause the conso pool to be smaller than it should be (as it's only built with a subset of losing eligible tickets), and overrepresent winners in the conso pool as every ticket going in had the winner in the first.

The winners of the conso pool obviously need to have the winner in the 1st, but the conso pool itself should be filled with all tickets that have a scratched horse on it. A double scratch conso pool would seem guarenteed to be smaller than it should, and also have a higher % of winners within that pool than it should.

The rule:
(k)(j) If wagering interests are designated to run for purse only or scratched from both the
second and third legs after the start of the first leg, a consolation payout shall be computed for
those wagers combining the winner of the first leg with horse(s) designated to run for purse only
or scratched from both the second and third legs as follows: The amount wagered on the winner
of the first leg combined with all other horse(s) designated or scratched from the second and
third legs shall be deducted from the gross pool. The resulting pool, net of takeout, shall be
distributed as a win pool among tickets combining the winner of the first leg with horse(s)
designated to run for purse only or scratched from both the second and third legs.

toussaud
04-15-2011, 11:16 AM
let me ask you this.

is the consolation pay out for 5 out of 6 a raw deal?

wouldn't it be better if you put 77% of the pool to the winning ticket instead of what we have now? it would be a higher ROI for the winner.

I don't play pick 6's, just speculating.

Spiderman
04-15-2011, 07:57 PM
When P6 betting was launched, there was no consolation. That changed after a few years.

rwwupl
04-18-2011, 12:24 AM
I will have it checked out by the CHRB... When they respond I will pass it on to you.

rw



From Mike Marten, CHRB information officer to a request for explanation:


Roger:



Sportech confirmed my belief that favoritism and the transfer of wagers from scratched horses does not take place until betting has closed and the actual favorite is determined. Therefore, the Will Pays are predictions based solely on the money wagered on individual horses. In this case, the money wagered on the 3 alone projected a Will Pay of $3,408. Only after the pool closed did the tote system identify the 3 as the winning favorite and transfer correct wagers on the 1,4,5 and 7 (the four scratched horses) to the 3, which resulted in a reduced payout to a larger number of winners.



Mike----------------------------------------------------------------
rw