AW Sire Stats

[Spiderman]

KEE R6 is off-turf and has become a difficult puzzle. Has anyone compiled stats for sire AW performance?

[JustRalph]

****Warning**** I suck at Keeneland...... but am making a few bets there today. In this race, I was liking the :11: :14: but who the hell knows now that it's on the main.

I try to only play the turf course at Kee anymore. But have a day off and the wife is out of town on business.........

****Warning I suck at Kee *****

Bris has been bombarding me with an email about a new Sire Stats book that includes AW tracks..... in case you are interested

[Spiderman]

Thanks. I'll look into what brisnet has to offer and press them to start putting AW stats in pps.

Just hit the 2nd race exacta and live in p3 and p4. Did not adjust for off-turf in 3rd and have the #3 singled. Like #s 3 and 11 in 4th; used three #s in 5th 1,2,6; in 6th, I settled on Love Dare; 7th 1 and 6 (sensational 4f work); 8th: 2,5,10 and 9th confident with 1 and 10. Good luck

[plainolebill]

KEE R6 is off-turf and has become a difficult puzzle. Has anyone compiled stats for sire AW performance?

The Bloodhorse has sire stats. Use the dropdown boxes at the top to select All-Weather:

Sire list (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred-breeding/sire-lists/general/california)

[parlay]

Haven't looked at the pp's but i see Motion at13-1 with 1mtp.
HMMM!

[duncan04]

The Alan Garcia- Ken McPeek train keeps rolling on in race 6. :5: at 5-1. Had two good past races on poly at Turfway and Keeneland back in Oct '10

[point given]

JEREMY PLONK’S ‘11 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW







AS MUCH FREE HANDICAPPING DATA AS ANY TRACK IN AMERICA

The free Polycapping database that I helped Keeneland create has changed the way I handicap the races. More information than ever is available, and best of all – it’s ALWAYS FREE. Use it yourself. Kick the tires. Get your Polycappin’ on. Click this link to download it yourself: http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp.

Fear not if spreadsheets and numbers make you dizzy. That’s why we’re here. Let’s dig into the database and see what kind of numbers could be important for opening weekend and beyond!

OPENING WEEKEND POINTERS

Where do the winners come from in the opening few days?

Of the 98 races held on either surface during opening weekends of the 4 Spring meetings of the Polytrack era (2007-’10), Gulfstream shippers have dominated with 33 wins, followed by Fair Grounds (16) and Turfway (15). That’s 65% of the victories from 3 circuits, which shows the Spring meet to be far less of a melting pot than the Fall meet at Keeneland. Only about half as many circuits produce Spring meet winners at Keeneland as we see in the Fall.

Hot Jockeys/Trainers to start the meeting …

Trainers Kiaran McLaughlin, Wesley Ward and Bill Mott (each with 6 Spring opening weekend wins since 2007) come ready to roll out of the blocks at Keeneland. Other opening weekend Spring meet successful barns include Shug McGaughey (4 wins) and Ken McPeek (4 wins). Note that 4 of Ward’s wins were with first-time starting 2-year-olds. McLaughlin’s wins included 5 sprints (4 allowwance/1 stakes). Mott’s 6-pack comprised of all 6 routes, 5 on the turf).

As for jockeys, traditional Spring fast starts have come from Kent Desormeaux (14 Spring opening weekend wins since 2007) and Julien Leparoux (13 wins). Part of Desormeaux’s fast start explanation comes from his strong Louisiana connections, as he’s ridden as many Spring opening weekend winners from Fair Grounds (5) as he has from his winter homebase at Gulfstream (4).

GP means Green Please!

Horses shipping north from Gulfstream Park have won 8 of the 19 turf races held during Spring meet opening weekends since 2007. No other circuit has produced more than 2 by comparison.

Local workouts aren’t as important as you may think.

Only 31 of the 79 winners of Spring meet opening weekend Polytrack races had shown a local workout just prior to victory. Don’t hold the lack of a local drill against a contender you like on paper, especially if they’ve shown local raceday success.

Poly and Turf equally challenging opening week.

Favorites have won 25% of the time on Polytrack during Spring meet opening weekends. Compare that to 26% when you look at opening weekend Turf races during the same span.

Chat LIVE with Jeremy Plonk,

Joe Kristufek, Caton Bredar & Bob Neumeier every raceday for in-card analysis at Keeneland.com – placed right next to free HD video! JEREMY PLONK’S ‘11 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW

Most Wins By Trainers During Spring Meets,

2007-’10, All Surfaces

Name Wins (Noteworthy)

Todd Pletcher 35 (10 turf wins included 8 favorites)

Bill Mott 23 (12 turf/11 Poly; avg odds 3.4-1)

Kenny McPeek 21 (18 Poly; 8 exited GP dirt prep)

Rusty Arnold 18 (14 Poly – 6 prep turf, 5 dirt)

Kiaran McLauglin 16 (13 Poly – 9 sprints, 4 routes)

Wesley Ward 16 (15 in Poly sprints; 10 w/ 2YOs)

Shug McGaughey 15 (10 Poly/5 turf; 12 routes)

Steve Asmussen 14 (11 w/ 2YO babies; all local works)

Christophe Clement 14 (14 route; 14 Payson recent work)

Graham Motion 13 (11 Poly; 10 routes; 0 under 7F)

Merrill Scherer 12 (11 claimer; 10 sprint; 5 CD works)

Mike Maker 11 (8 routes; 7 Turfway prep; 5 favs)

Jonathan Sheppard 11 (6 turf; 5 stakes; avg odds 2.3-1)

Michael Matz 10 (3 wins in ’07,’08,’09; just 1 in ‘10)

Big Barn Details – TODD PLETCHER:

Of Pletcher’s 25 Spring meet Polytrack winners, 10 were first-time starters including 7 that were 2-year-old dashers. Only 4 of his Spring Poly wins came with horses who last ran on dirt, and only 4 of his Poly wins were by horses that came up from Gulfstream via any surface, remarkably. Of his 15 Poly winners who were not first-time starters, it’s very telling that 14 of those horses were exiting route races last time out, no matter what distance they were running at Keeneland. Look for Pletcher rookies and Pletcher horses with route preps on Poly. On turf, Pletcher’s Gulfstream shippers are most dangerous.

Big Barn Details – BILL MOTT:

Mott maidens are where you want to look on the Polytrack this time of year as 7 of his 11 wins over the surface during Spring meets have been in the maiden ranks, including 3 coming off of dirt losses. Of his 23 wins on either surface during Spring meets since 2007, only 5 have come in sprints (all maiden sprints). Kent Desormeaux has ridden 15 of Mott’s 23 winners during the span.

More trainer angles for Keeneland Spring meets:

8 of Kiaran McLaughlin’s 13 Spring meet winners on Polytrack have come at 7 furlongs … Of Wesley Ward’s 10 baby race wins with 2-year-olds on the Polytrack during Spring meets, 8 of them had a local workout before the victory …

Christophe Clement has 5 Poly wins during the Spring meets, 4 with horses exiting turf preps, while 11 of his 14 wins on either surface have come with Garrett Gomez riding … Graham Motion’s 13 Spring meet wins include 3 at 18-1 or more odds … 6 of the 12 Poly wins for Merrill Scherer have come with horses exiting Fair Grounds turf preps, 5 of them turning back from route to sprint …

Of Mike Maker’s 11 Poly Spring wins, only ’10 Blue Grass winner Stately Victor closed more than 3-3/4 lengths after the first half-mile; Maker’s route speed / pressers are his mojo … None of Jonathan Sheppard’s 11 Spring Meet winners had been higher than 9-2 odds … Michael Matz’s 8 Spring Poly wins have averaged a juicy 10-1 price. JEREMY PLONK’S ‘11 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW

Most Wins By Jockeys During Spring Meets,

2007-’10, All Surfaces

Name Wins (Noteworthy)

Julien Leparoux 75 (58 Poly; avg odds 4-1; 23 @ 7F)

Kent Desormeaux 64 (56 Poly, 8 turf; 26 Poly routes)

Garrett Gomez 63 (45 Poly, 18 turf; 31-63 favorites!)

Robby Albarado 39 (4 turf; 26 diff barns; avg odds 6-1)

John Velazquez 39 (20 for Pletcher; 19-39 favorites)

Edgar Prado 30 (Only 4 since ‘08; just 2 at 9-1 +)

Miguel Mena 24 (23 diff barns; only 1 favorite!)

Jamie Theriot 24 (10 exited FG dirt prep; 16 sprints)

Shaun Bridgmohan 23 (11 for Asmussen; 18 sprints)

Javier Castellano 21 (9 turf; only 1 win over 8-1 odds)

Big Rider Details – JULIEN LEPAROUX:

Leparoux wins for every barn, scoring no more than 10 wins for any particular trainer during Spring meets 2007-’10. Of his 17 Spring turf wins, 7 have come in stakes, but his average turf winner is a mere 2-1 on the tote and NONE of the 17 winners were above 9-2 odds on grass. Only 16 of his 58 Spring Poly wins came at distances less than 7 furlongs. Amazingly 24 of those 58 winners came aboard horses who had never raced on a synthetic surface prior, so he’s a master at adjusting them to the situation.

Big Rider Details – KENT DESORMEAUX:

Only 7 of his 56 winners the past 4 Spring meets on any surface went off above 10-1 odds, while 20 of his 56 victories have come on favorites. His California ties have come in handy as he’s ridden 6 winners for Bob Hess, Jr. in Spring meets in from the west coast, while 15 of his scores have come for Bill Mott (8 Polytrack, 7 turf).

Big Rider Details – GARRETT GOMEZ:

Gomez recently changed agents from Ron Anderson to Tony Matos. His previous Keeneland Spring go-to barns were Christophe Clement (11 wins), Todd Pletcher (9) and Rusty Arnold (7), so it will be interesting to see which barns he rides for with the new agent.

More jockey angles for Keeneland Spring meets:

Robby Albarado is returning from injury, which could slow his business since he missed much time at Fair Grounds. Do note that he’s won aboard Spring meet first-time starters for 6 different trainers since ’07.

Rosie Napravnik was Fair Grounds’ leading rider this winter-spring and a rising star. She won 2 races here Oct. 22 in the Fall in her first local foray, quite a splash.

Shaun Bridgmohan recently had a falling out with the Steve Asmussen barn at Fair Grounds as its go-to pilot.

Jamie Theriot rode Spring turf stakes winners in 2007-’08-’09 at 7-1, 21-1 and 50-1.

Junior Alvarado won 4 races last Spring, 3 for Eric Reed, including 23-1 & 14-1 bombs.

Calvin Borel has won just 8 races in Spring meets since ’07 and only 1 last year, that being the closing-day Ben Ali.

Alan Garcia benefits from picking up super-agent Ron Anderson. He won 9 races here last Spring, including the G1 Blue Grass on 40-1 Stately Victor. JEREMY PLONK’S ‘11 SPRING MEET STATISTICAL PREVIEW

ODDS & ENDS

Public Dialing In

The average winning odds of horses on the Polytrack at the 2010 Spring and Fall meetings ranked as two lowest cumulative returns in the nine meetings held all-time over the surface. Fall meet average winners were 5.63-1, while the Spring meet victors averaged 6.21-1 on the toteboard.

Don’t Let The Big Races Fool You

Only 10 out of 239 races on the Keeneland Polytrack in all of 2010 were won by horses 20-1 or more odds, though drive-by observers may only remember Stately Victor at 40-1 in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass and Acoma at 23-1 in the G1 Juddmonte Spinster.

Surface Welcoming to All Prep Footings

Of the 463 all-time Spring Meet races on the Polytrack, the winning horses most recently prepped on dirt 159 times, a synthetic surface 133 times and turf 110 times (with 61 first-time starters also winning). The past two Spring Meets show an even tighter race among supremacy for last-prep surface of Keeneland winners: 68 dirt, 64 synthetics, 62 turf.

Streaking Sires

Hot Keeneland Polytrack sires last year during the Spring and Fall combined meets included: Distorted Humor and Smart Strike (6 wins each), Empire Maker (5), Successful Appeal (5), Borrego (4) and Unbridled’s Song (4).

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All-Time Leading Keeneland

Polytrack Sires by Wins

Unbridled’s Song 22

Tale of the Cat 20

Smart Strike 20

Giant’s Causeway 19

AP Indy 17

Distorted Humor 17

Dynaformer 16

Storm Cat 14

Grand Slam 13

Indian Charlie 13

Pulpit 12

Maria’s Mon 11

Empire Maker 11

Tiznow 11

Cherokee Run 10

Pure Prize 10

Sky Mesa 10

Trippi 10

Catienus 9

Forest Wildcat 9

Fusaichi Pegasus 9

Mutakddim 9

Successful Appeal 9

Carson City 8

Cat Thief 8

Forestry 8

Gulch 8

Mr. Greeley 8

Not For Love 8

Royal Academy 8

Skip Away 8

Thunder Gulch 8

Bernstein 7

Deputy Commander 7

Hennessy 7

Lemon Drop Kid 7

Sky Classic 7

Storm Boot 7

Follow Jeremy Plonk’s daily handicapping stats & trends every race day FREE at www.keeneland.com (http://www.keeneland.com).

[Spiderman]

Thanks for the resources on AW sires. Makes it all a bit easier.