Settle an agrument...

[Glenny]

Calling all experts...

While reading the excellent tread regarding handicapping books, I was reminded of an outstanding argument that currently remains unsettled (hint: I'd like to win this argument because the person I'm arguing with is a well known handicapping author).

I am asking any and all of you out there who understand how to calculate Quirn Speed points (QSP) to help settle this once and for all.

I especially invite those who have developed software which uses QSP. (i.e. Dave Schwartz)

The argument has to do with the way points are assigned in route races. Specifically, how to score a sprint race in the horse's past performance when today's race is a route.

Here is a direct passage from Quirin's excellent book "Winng at the races...":

-------------------------------------------------------------
For a horse entered in a route, additional speed points are awarded as follows:

1 point - for any route in which the horse was 1-2-3 at the first call.

AND/OR

1 point - for any route in which the horse was close (within three lengths) at the first call.

0 points - for any other route performance.

1 point - for any sprint in which the horse was 1-2-3 or within three lengths of the lead at the first call.

AND/OR

1 point - for any sprint in which the horse was within 6 lengths of the lead at the first call.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Now for my question.....

Given the fact that today's race is a route race, how many points would YOU assign to a race in the horse's performance which was run at 6 furlongs and at the first call the horse was 5th by 1 1/2 lengths?????

Some people say 1 point...

and others (who read the instructions literally) say the race earns 2 points.

Thanks to everyone who may help settle this (there is an expensive dinner riding on it)

I'll chime in later with my own strong (and biased) opinion.

[baravot]

Hi Glenny,

I'm no "expert" but I say 2 points, unless the race is six or further back in the PPs, in which case it gets none.

[MikeH]

I could write a book on this topic, and I'll guess that Dave Schwartz could write another!

You need to place Quirin's works in the proper context. His was the first serious study done, in a day when an IBM 360 mainframe was all that was available. The computers on our desks today probably have almost the same computing power as those at Dr. Quirin's university in the 1970's.

Secondly, he started by grouping all races into sprints or routes. Since his was the first study done, this only made sense. The one variation that he proposed was the "on the lead" in a 7 furlong race to get the point. Without Dr. Quirin's work, none of the "follow up" studies could have been done. I personally think that his work is probably the most important that was ever done in horseracing.

If you look at how BRIS calculated speed points today, when a horse stretches out, if the horse could "sneeze" they give him points. Allways seems to be somewhat less liberal.

I do it somewhat judgementally. For example, if both today's race, and the last race, are 7 furlongs, I use Dr. Quirin's "within 2 of the lead" rule. If a horse is going 8 furlongs (which tend to have a much faster pace than 8.5 at 1 mile tracks), and his last race was a 7, I treat the 7 as though it was a route. If a horse is going from a 6F to a 7F, I use Dr. Quirin's exceptions for a 7F: he must be on the lead to get the points.

I also look at all of the horse's last 5 or 6 races, and I'm not afraid to assign a "?" to a horse.

You need to look at the tracks that you are playing and make some judgements on "What it takes to get on the lead" at your track.

I have tracked Quirin speed points since Quinn and Brohamer first taught us how to use them about 5 years ago, and, like I said, I could write volumes on this, but I'll stop here.

BTW Dave S - I've lost your website address... please advise.

Who's next??!!

[Dave Schwartz]

Easy...

2 points.

The rules say it all. And it works that way.

However, just so you don't think I am thumbing my nose at anyone that got this one wrong, I did it incorrectly for the first 2 or 3 years before someone else pointed out my mistake.

On th subject of speed points, how do you treat a 1st time starter? Our experience is that if you have a group of 1st timers in a race, they will ON AVERAGE act like 2.5's. That is, they will be mid-packers, with some going to the front and some never challenging. The problem is that you can't tell WHICH ones will go to the front (without ped stats and trainer stats). (Yes, some trainers are more likely to send FTS's early even without the breeding. Of course, if you have ever seen a 2yr old colt up close you realize that they are so spirited that it borders on out of control. So, you strap this little jockey-guy on the back and point them in the right direction out of the gate.)

I actually had an opportunity to ride a 4yr old TBred that was huge (17.3 hands for those that know what that means). Now, nobody will ever get me confused with a jockey (unless I am riding an elephant), but I am here to tell you that it was one very wild ride on back of that rocket.


And, for Mike H,...
http://www.horsestreet.com

...will find us.

[Dick Schmidt]

Dave can prove that the story about him riding a thoroughbred is true. He still has some steaks left in his freezer from the poor animal.

Dick

[hurrikane]

Dave on a horse....now that is a race I would like to see. as for the hands...that's an easy one. as for the points...dave is correct..as the rule reads...and/or....this would call for 2 points. I however am very judgemental at this point and will be reluctant to award points for various reasons..ie..never ran the dist..losing record at the dist...Dave is the jockey...etc.

[Dave Schwartz]

Couldn't understand why the horse broke down so bad... approaching the gate.

Actually, the truth behind that horse story is that the horse was retired because he was too big... so gangly that he was "running down" to the point where he was subject to fall. His legs were literally too long for his body.

And 5' 11" at the withers is a hug horse. I needed a step stool to get on him. No joke.

He was a nasty horse. Always biting people. Nobody much liked him ('til dinner).

Those steaks... gives the phrase "good horse" a whole knew meaning.

And on the subject of elephant races, we don't have those, but in Virginia City, NV (labor Day) they do have camel & ostrich races. Hilarious to watch.

[baravot]

"And 5' 11" at the withers is a hug horse"


I always hug'em when they're that tall!

[Dave Schwartz]

Baravot,

Nobody said I could spell.

[baravot]

Dave,

Absolutely no disrespect intended. I tend to read things literally and when I read that, it conjured up a funny image in my mind! I mispell stuff alot!

Regards

[Dave Schwartz]

Baravot...

I did not mean to sound offended (I wasn't.). Sorry. I learned to laugh at myself a long time ago. After all, there is a lot to laugh at in all of us.

In fact, it took me almost two years to get my wife to stop pointing and laughing in the bedroom... Agggghhh!