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Capper Al
04-10-2011, 04:55 PM
This is where the interview will be conducted with Randy on his book Extreme Pace Handicapping.

There is a Question thread opened to take your questions for Randy. Please place your questions and comments in that thread and not the interview thread. The Interview thread is only for Randy and me to post in. I will pull questions for the interview from the Question thread only. Any mistakenly placed questions in the Interview thread will be deleted and not answered.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 08:45 AM
Extreme Pace Handicapping – If You Doodle It, They Will Come

Randy Giles in his book Extreme Pace Handicapping brings something new to handicapping – the doodle. This is not your father's handicapping! Catch the interview tonight April 11 here in this thread with the author.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 05:00 PM
Extreme Pace Handicapping – If You Doodle It, They Will Come

Randy Giles in his book Extreme Pace Handicapping brings something new to handicapping – the doodle. A doodle is a picture of the herd in motion at the first call, using each horse’s running style along with Quirin Speed Points. Here’s a made up example:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Par 108 (PPG 27x2) – Late (Early speed is expected to collapse)

.... 1A)E7x .... 7)EP5 .... 6)P2x .... 8)PC3x .... 2)Cx

.... 10)E5 ..... 1)EP4x ... ....... ..... 3)PC ....

.... .......... ..... 5)EP5....

.... .......... ..... 9)EP4x ....

.... .......... ..... 4)EP0x

.... .......... ..... 11)EP5

'x' does not meet Speed Rating par -- (Beyer or BRIS like Speed figures)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the above diagram, #3 is the pick. All the early horses are doomed to run themselves out in the early chase for the lead. The Presser (P) #6 or the Presser/Closer (PC) #8 do not meet the minimum speed par, so they are skipped over.

A presser/closer’s running style has been added to the four basic running styles (E, EP, P, S). A presser/closer is the opposite of the EP style horse who runs on the lead. PC horses come on from behind when the front end collapses. Presser/closers are like their name implies. They may press or close. EP and PC are considered talented because they have demonstrated that they can adjust their styles to fit the race.

Mr. Giles identifies Extreme Pace characters or patterns found in the doodles. There are four major characters classified—The Thief, the Clever Thief, the Loner, and the Carpetbagger. The Thief, for example, is one that most of us already know. The Thief is the lone early horse who could steal the race from what might be considered better horses. The idea is to quickly doodle races skipping over races without an identifiable character. Once a character is found, it has the potential to be a value play. This is ideal for today’s simulcast player.

After an Extreme Pace character is identified, the Pace Pressure Gauge (PPG) is used to determine if the race is going to go to the early pace horses or go to the come from behind horses. If a presser is being considered, his Pace Comfort Zone (PCZ) will help determine if he could catch the field and win.

The Extreme Pace Handicapping is a simple and straight forward handicapping method, but it does require some practice. There are many examples to practice on. Yet, it is a difficult read and not recommended for the novice handicapper. For the intermediate or advanced handicapper who voyages through the book, they will have to deal with a major paradigm shift from handicapping horses to handicapping the herd. This mind shift is no small feat, but it is worth the effort. Randy has an excellent speed rating par that weeds out the contenders from the pretenders but the details of his par are not shared in the book. However, Randy will answer any of your questions.

William Quirin in his book Winning at the Races quantified the advantage of early verse late pace horses over thirty years ago. Howard Sartin with his disciples ordained that Pace Makes the Race in the book with that same title. The pace boys later appear to have split up. One major group studied energy distribution verse others who stayed with running styles, or adjusted final times with the second call or the second fraction added in. As impressive as some of the results of pace methods of the past were, they really only redefined speed. The problem with most handicapping systems is they figure a race as if the horses are going to run like Olympic runners and stay in their own designated lanes. This doesn’t happen. A race is a battle for position. The doodle gives the picture of the probable battle each horse will have to contend with as the race unfolds.

Mr. Giles extrapolates from the doodle into his Optimal Pace Model added as a bonus chapter at the end of the book. The pace model matches energy distribution with running styles and race makeup. This will be beyond most readers. Maybe this is an attempt to analyze a race beyond the doodle.

It is a struggle to integrate one’s own true and tested handicapping methods with the doodle. But this should be expected with the paradigm shift toward analyzing the herd. Nonetheless, every intermediate and advanced handicapper should expand their horizons by taking a look at Extreme Pace Handicapping to get acquainted with the doodle and its cast of Extreme Pace characters.

Randy has been more than happy to reply to any questions. Send him a PM here at PaceAdvantage or contact him at his website www.paceappraiser.com (http://www.paceappraiser.com/).

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 06:51 PM
Hello Randy, Say hi when you get here.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 06:55 PM
Hi Al--I'm here.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 06:58 PM
Hi Randy, We'll start at 7:00 PM sharp. Are you in New Jersey?

rangiles
04-11-2011, 06:59 PM
No, Believe it or not I'm in Tennessee, just down the road from KY.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 07:02 PM
I would like to start off by thanking PaceAdvantage for hosting our interview. Thanks in advance to Randy for taking the time and making the effort for this interview to happen. And a special thanks to my partners behind the scene Turfway Ed and CincyHorseplayer.

Randy, it was the doodle that captured me with your method, and it is why I asked you to interview.

How long have you been doodling? How did you come across the idea to create pictures of possible pace scenarios within
the doodle?

rangiles
04-11-2011, 07:05 PM
I started doodling around 1992. I was making my own running styles and got involved with Quirin speed points. It made a huge difference in my bottom line so it started from there.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 07:10 PM
Would you highlight your method with bullets? I'll start the first few bullets:


* Figure each horses running style style.

* Figure, or find within the past performances lines, Quirin Speed Points for each horse.

* Doodle the pace picture for today's race.

* Determine the minimum par time for today's field, and mark which horses can go the par.

I'll let you finish it from here.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 07:11 PM
Everyone,

You'll have to refresh your screens to see the next replies.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 07:21 PM
Well, I don't use par final times. I use a thing I call competitive speed figure range. I just want to know if a horse is fast enough to compete in today's race. So the first thing I do, and PacePaceAppraiser does it for me now, is to determine the runing styles; then I add the speed points and then place the horses in a pace picture. This way I can clearly see if there's a pace aberration afoot or not, or if a horse will be "working" in a comfortable pace environment, or if the race is just a "mush" race. A mush race has no pace advantage, comfortable or otherwise. A much race is the type of race that you circle your contenders and then play the best odds.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 07:24 PM
How does one predict the second call when using pace comfort zone (PCZ) analysis? For example, there's a horse whose PCZ is 3 lengths. How will we determine that 3 lengths might be too much for today's pace but 2.5 lengths is doable?

rangiles
04-11-2011, 07:32 PM
The PCZ is really an ability rating. Not all running styles are created equally. For example, an E/P7 that has a pace comfort zone of 1.0 is not as talent as an E/P7 with a PCZ of 4.0. So if tye early part of the pace picture looks like this:

E/P7 - PCZ 0.5
E/P5 - PCZ 0.5
E/P6 - PCZ 1.0
E/P5 - PCZ 3.0

I'm more interested in the last early pace horse with the PCZ 3.0. This horse is much more talented than the other three. I'm considering form or eligibility conditions...just the pace picture. In other words, as the front-end builds we need more talent. The PCZ gives us that information.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 07:40 PM
Randy, I'm going to double up on the questions because it takes forever to get a reply through the system. Although I'm sending you multiple questions, please answer them one question to a post. This way we won't be waiting so long because of the network. Thanks

Is your "qualified competitive speed" any different than a minimum speed par? If so, how?

Some Questions from Turfway Ed:

1. Randy, I know you play the simulcasts, but I pretty much play a full card or two.

Question: How many characters (profitable situations) should I expect on average handicapping 1-2 tracks per day??

Question: Do you suggest any shortcuts to doodling 1-2 cards?

Question: Do you automatically choose or ignore any particular races?

2. Record keeping? What do you do after the day's races have run?

3. What is the LE/listed horse? How do you find him and why is he important?

4. How do you deduce the speed figure range and more importantly, how do you use the figures?

Thanks

rangiles
04-11-2011, 07:45 PM
Is your "qualified competitive speed" any different than a minimum speed par? If so, how?

The Competitive Speed Figure Range is based on how fast horse have run in their last three races. I don’t use speed pars. The CSFR tells me only if “today’s” horses are fast enough to compete with each other.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 07:50 PM
Question: How many characters (profitable situations) should I expect on average handicapping 1-2 tracks per day?

On average I get only 1 play per day per card. That’s not a lot so simulcasting is very important when we’re talking about extreme pace aberrations. Now with Pace Boxes the number of plays improves, which is more like 3 plays per day.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 08:03 PM
Question: Do you suggest any shortcuts to doodling 1-2 cards?
Yes. Let’s say a pace picture looks like this:

E/P7
E/P5
E/p6
E/P3
--------P3
--------P3
--------------P/C
--------------P/C

There’s no extreme pace aberration or a pace box situation in this picture - If one of the early pace types has a very good PCZ (3.0 to 4.0) then I might be interested if the odds are very good, say, 4/1 or better. I really try to stay with horses that will be racing in a comfortable pace environment, but there are some good plays in these situations if an early pace type has a strong PCZ. As the early picture builds then the more talent those early pace horses have to have. In my experience the PCZ gives me that information. The pace picture, if used properly, is to assess odds.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 08:08 PM
Question: Do you automatically choose or ignore any particular races?

Since I’m a simulcast win player I typically pass mush races…those races that don’t have an aberration or a pace box.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 08:15 PM
2. Record keeping? What do you do after the day's races have run?

I’m a fanatic when it comes to bookkeeping. I label every play I make and it’s recorded along with date, track, race number, class, and pace profile, etc. I also keep a hard copy of all races I bet. I know at given time how good I’m doing at any class, distance, surface, track, pace profile, etc. I just have know or I feel like I’m playing blind.

Capper Al
04-11-2011, 08:31 PM
We should have used a chat room. Randy, would you take a look at the Question thread and post some answers later as you have time? Everyone thanks for trying this. Thanks Randy. Sorry about how it turned out.

rangiles
04-11-2011, 08:35 PM
3. What is the LE/listed horse? How do you find him and why is he important?

An LE listed a front runner that does not qualify for the competitive speed figure range. In the PaceAppraiser PPs it will not be in bold type. Only CSFR qualifiers are in bold type. The LE/Listed will have a CSFR in its past history, say, 10 races back. The idea is this: The horse is in the right place at the right time but has terrible recent form. So the horse has the right running style for today’s race, just needs to get free early, which today’s pace picture should provide. The crowd generally overlooks these types because of terrible recent form. These have generated some of my best payoffs, but patience is required.

CincyHorseplayer
04-11-2011, 09:49 PM
1)Pace Pressure Gauge

Since Quirin came up with his early pace numbers and statistics a lot of handicappers and
authors have used the concept of probable pace,but have not tried
to quantify it as to actual results like you have with the PPG,that I know of.How did that evolve and how
long did it take for you to come up with parameters that were near exact
measures of what to expect?

2)Pace Multipliers

I think the multipliers serve a quicker utility function for pace analysis as
opposed to having 2 isolated figures(speed/pace) standing alone as things in
themselves.Do you think that the strength of the multipliers is more that it
emphasizes the relationship of final time to pace of the race and it's effect on
running styles, than isolating both parts of the equation?

PaceAdvantage
04-12-2011, 12:22 AM
Randy, I'm going to double up on the questions because it takes forever to get a reply through the system. Although I'm sending you multiple questions, please answer them one question to a post. This way we won't be waiting so long because of the network.For the next interview, we'll use the chat room. It is much more conducive to an interview.

There was nothing wrong with "the network" or the speed of the message board during the interview. It's an inefficient way to conduct an interview because you have to keep refreshing the thread to see when the question has been asked/answered. But as soon as you hit that "submit reply" button, the reply is instantaneously added to the thread, just as it always has been.

PaceAdvantage
04-12-2011, 12:23 AM
Much thanks goes out to Capper Al and Randy Giles for taking the time to answer these questions tonight! :ThmbUp:

Capper Al
04-12-2011, 06:55 AM
Randy will be answering unanswered questions that we didn't have time to get to in the Questions thread. Thanks again for participating in last night's interview. We had the right idea but the wrong technology. Next time, we'll use a chat room.

Partsnut
04-12-2011, 07:12 AM
Hi Al,

The interview was very much appreciated and I have to commend
the administration for allowing it. To me it was quite a surprising reversal of prior policies.

The chat room is a good way to go but you also have the option to video conference on "Skype" which would be a lot more responsive and personal for those that wish to participate.

mikeb
04-12-2011, 08:45 AM
Partsnut,

Where can i view Randy's replys?
Thanks
Mike.

Capper Al
04-12-2011, 09:53 AM
Partsnut,

Where can i view Randy's reply?
Thanks
Mike.

I know you asked Partsnut but I'll jump in. Randy should reply in the Questions thread at the link below:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=81922

Jay Trotter
04-12-2011, 11:05 AM
Thanks Randy and CapperAl -- much appreciated!

It's initiatives like this that continue to make PaceAdvantage the number one site for handicappers on the web.

Thanks to Mike for promoting this.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

rangiles
04-12-2011, 01:30 PM
Hi CincyHorsePlayer--

1. The Pace Pressure Gauge came about after a lot research with the speed point totals. After a while I started noticing that I could better predict the pace bias if I just used the speed point totals of the early pace horse, including pressersd, with 5 or more speed points. Then through trial and error I came up with the Pace Pressure Gauge. That would be the first number, which represents pressure. The second number in the rating gives us an idea pace velocity. A rating with a 2, say, in the second spot red flags the race as a potentially fast pace. So is the pressure is high and the velocity 1 or more then I feel comfortable looking for late pace runners (P/Cs). So I was just looking for an approach that give me some idea about where to start my handicapping, early or late.

2. I believe that simple is better most of the time so the pace multipliers that are represented by the Pace Velocity Rating do a quick and efficient job of giving me a pace shape at a glance. Say the race is a Fast 5, then I know with a glance that that race, and these are pace of the race numbers and not pace of the horse of course, was Fast/Slow pace/race shape. This I can easily rate a horses performance relative to running style. The PVR also gives me an idea about a horse's pace ability, especially in the early department. Of course, early pace horses with superior pace ability are always dangerous.

rangiles
04-12-2011, 01:35 PM
Before I finish answering the questions, I want to thank PaceAdvantage for the great job with this forum, and allowing me to be involved in this Q&A. I really appreciate it.

Randy

CincyHorseplayer
04-12-2011, 04:05 PM
Thanks for your time too Randy.Email me when I can purchase the new book!Talk to you soon.

Rod

rangiles
04-12-2011, 04:33 PM
Thank you, Rod.

Randy

mikeb
04-12-2011, 05:36 PM
Thanks Capper Al