Questions for Randy Giles Interview on Monday April 11 at 7:00 PM EST

[Capper Al]

This is the question thread opened to take your questions for Randy Giles' Interview on his book Extreme Pace Handicapping. Please place your questions and comments in this thread and not in the interview thread. The interview thread is only for Randy and me to post in. I will pull questions for the interview from this question thread only. Any mistakenly placed questions in the interview thread will be deleted and not answered.


Thanks

[Tom]

Can you explain how you determine if a race was fast or slow, and how you modify the speed rating accordingly? If you use BRIS speed figures, do you adjust differently than if you had used Beyers?

[Turfway Ed]

QUESTIONS:

1. Randy, I know you play the simulcasts, but I pretty much play a
full card or two.

Question: How many characters (profitable situations) should I
expect on average handicapping 1-2 tracks per day??

Question: Do you suggest any shortcuts to doodling 1-2 cards?

Question: Do you automatically choose or ignore any particular
races?



2. Record keeping? What do you do after the day's races have run?


3. What is the LE/listed horse? How do you find him and why is he
important?

4. How do you deduce the speed figure range and more importantly,
how do you use the figures?

[PaceAdvantage]

Randy,

When playing a pick 3, 4, 5, or 6...what would you do for a mush race that doesn't show one of your Extreme Pace characters (Thieve, Loner, etc.) that you would normally wager on?

[Turfway Ed]

Randy,

You suggest minimum odds of 5/2 on thieves and clever thieves; 4/1 on loners; and 5/1 on carpetbaggers.

Question: What about suggested minimum odds for a E5 (LE/Listed)? or a E/P5 (LE/Listed)? Does an E5 even qualify for LE/Listed?

[Mike A]

I really like your book a lot. I was wondering if you have any updated versions of the pace of the race multipliers. Thanks a lot!

[CincyHorseplayer]

I have 3 questions for Randy;

1)Pace Pressure Gauge

Since Quirin came up with his early pace numbers and statistics a lot of handicappers and
authors have used the concept of probable pace,but have not tried
to quantify it as to actual results like you have with the PPG,that I know of.How did that evolve and how
long did it take for you to come up with parameters that were near exact
measures of what to expect?

2)Pace Multipliers

I think the multipliers serve a quicker utility function for pace analysis as
opposed to having 2 isolated figures(speed/pace) standing alone as things in
themselves.Do you think that the strength of the multipliers is more that it
emphasizes the relationship of final time to pace of the race and it's effect on
running styles, than isolating both parts of the equation?

3)Pace Comfort Zone

You told me the other day that you would refer to pace comfort zone to decide if
a runner had the type of capability to win in a certain pace scenario.Would you
say that,just as there is diversity in running style that isn't one dimensional
like E/P's and P/C's that points out the ability of an animal,that the depth of
the PCZ within that running style is just an extension of pointing out the
virtues of that horse?That defining both goes hand in hand?

[bob60566]

Being recent member my main concern was the amount of race cards you had to go through to get the important races that qualify.

If you could post the races that qualify on daily basis on your website then the handicapper that subscibes can then download the required cards for his comfort level to handicap.
Mac:)

[Partsnut]

Randy, as far as I know, you are a win bettor. Is this correct?

You won't bet into a mush race because there is no contender that shows a pace edge. Is this correct?

For the most part you do not bet the exotics?

You also demand value for the horses that you play?

You are a simulcast player that picks his spots from a multitude of tracks and plays on a daily basis? You are a volume player?

The majority of players cannot handle a protracted losing streak? So you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win?

[thaskalos]

Hi Randy,

Although I liked your book, and found your approach very thought provoking...it seemed - to me at least - to be a little rushed, and hard to fully understand.

I would like to see you write a longer book...where you could fully expand on your thoughts regarding pace handicapping.

[Turfway Ed]

I'm taking the questions and steering them to Capper Al.

I think there's a problem, however. The last question I received was at 6:54 PM

--Turfway Ed

[mabred]

can u ask randy for a few examples

like a race where he sees a pace box

betting opportunity

thanks

[rangiles]

Hi Tom--

I keep a database of the different distances at all the tracks and then I find the average pace for each final time relative to class of the race. You could say that each final time has it's own pace par, and that's what I want to know. At that point I figure the multiplier for that particular final time. Say on average horses at Turfway Park run a 6 furlong final time of 1:11 3/5ths at 5K claiming so at that point I can easily figure the par pace for that final time...that's where the multiplier comes in. From there I know if the pace of the race for that particular final time was fast, average or slow. The multiplier is then coded in the Handicapper's Lab and the PaceAppraiser PPs. I do make adjustments to final times that are extremely fast or slow, so in those final time areas the multiplier will reflect those extreme situations.

The BRIS speed figures are adjusted, depending on distance, by 1 to 1.8 points for each length faster than par at the pace call. We don't work with the Beyer speed figures now but when we did with the Velocity Generator the length adjustments much higher. I'll have to look that up but I do remember that the length adjustment much greater than the BRIS adjustments.

[rangiles]

Hi--

In Pick 3-4, etc. If I have an extreme character then that horse is singled. In mush races I use what I call the Circle Approach, which is just a silly way of saying I circle my contenders and put the overlays in the ticket. And that's basically the way I play in the win pool too.

[rangiles]

Hi Turfway Ed--

Question: What about suggested minimum odds for a E5 (LE/Listed)? or a E/P5 (LE/Listed)? Does an E5 even qualify for LE/Listed?

For LE/Listed horses I want 5/1 or better. Usually the odds are very good for these types of horses because their form is so bad, but they've shown that they can compete in terms of final time with the race at hand. Of course, they must have a competitive speed figure in their published history. The best price I've ever had with an LE/Listed was $178 and change. That particular horse had a CSFR qualifier 10 races back! The idea is the horse just needed to be in the right place at the right time, and with that CSFR I knew that if the horse got loose on the lead then its final time ability was competitive.

Yes, an E5 can be a LE listed. Here's a LE/Listed pace picture:

E5 (Not CSRF Qualifier in Last Three Races - Qualifies 7 Races Back)
------E/P4 (CSFR Quailfier)
------E/P5
-------------P4 (CSFR Qualifier)
-------------P3 (CSFR Qualifier)
-------------P4
------------------P/C (CSFR Qualifier)
------------------P/C (SCFR Qualifier)
------------------------C

In this pace picture the E5 is the LE/Listed horse. This E5 is the only dedicated one dimensional early pace type, and has a CSFR qualifier 7 races back. That's the right place at the right time with the right final time ability.

[rangiles]

Hi Mike A--

The only updates we've had for the multipliers in Extreme Pace Handicapping book is I've added Turf Paradise. At the time the book was published I just didn't feel good about the number of races I had at that track so I didn't include it. Drop me an email at randy@paceappraiser.com and I'll be happy to send that information to you.

[rangiles]

Hi CincyHorseplayer--

Here's the last part of your questions that I overlooked.

Question 3)Pace Comfort Zone

You told me the other day that you would refer to pace comfort zone to decide if
a runner had the type of capability to win in a certain pace scenario.Would you
say that,just as there is diversity in running style that isn't one dimensional
like E/P's and P/C's that points out the ability of an animal,that the depth of
the PCZ within that running style is just an extension of pointing out the
virtues of that horse?That defining both goes hand in hand?
---

I do believe that defining both are very important. An E/P with a PCZ of 4.0 is much more talented than a E/P with a 0.5 PCZ. This additional talent becomes much more important as the early pressure builds. I look at this way, the more pressure the more PCZ talent I need. I just don't want to get involved with a horse that's an E/P7 with a 0.13 PCZ rating if its not in an Early 2D Pace Box. The same goes for P/Cs. Say the Pace Pressure Gauge is pointing to a late pace bias (32 X 1) then I want my P/C Carpetbagger to be talented, which means a 5.0 or close to it. A PCZ of 10.0 is troublesome even in this kind PPG rating. I believe the most talented horses at the track are E/Ps and P/Cs because they have two dimeinsions; they can adjust to the pace picture as it unfolds. I've saved a lot of money by passing horses that had everything I'm looking for in terms of improving form and eligibility conditions, etc,
but that extra talent wasn't there for that particular pace picture so the race was passed. Like I said, a good guideline for using the PCZ with early pace types is the more pressure the more PCZ talent required.

[rangiles]

Hi Mac--

That's a good suggestion and we'll try to get that going.

Thanks for the input.

[rangiles]

Hi Partsnut--

Question: Randy, as far as I know, you are a win bettor. Is this correct?

Answer: Yes, I'm primarily a win better...a simulcast player.

Question: You won't bet into a mush race because there is no contender that shows a pace edge. Is this correct?

Answer: Usually that's the case. I will play mush race if there's a serious overlay.

Question: For the most part you do not bet the exotics?

Answer: That's right. Since I look at, on average, about 10 tracks per day I'm really focused on horses that have a pace advantage or horses that will be "working" in a pace box.

Question: You also demand value for the horses that you play?

Answer: Absolutely. If I'm right I want to be rewared for it. This might sound strange but I don't really like betting! I really want an opportunity that compels me to make the bet. Pace advantages do that for me.

Question: You are a simulcast player that picks his spots from a multitude of tracks and plays on a daily basis? You are a volume player?

Answer: That's correct. I do play on a daily basis...that's 7 days a week. Since my wife likes me to have a real life too I have the technology in place that allows me to wager wherever I happen to be. I have an iPhone and an iPad so that makes it easy. I use Twinsipres so I can login to my account even when I'm at one of my grandson's baseball games and do business. I have two computers going in my office and then when I'm out and about I'm still in the game. It's just unbelievable what technology has done. I can't say enough good things about it so I'll just stop there.

Question: The majority of players cannot handle a protracted losing streak? So you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win?

Answer: I think so. It's tough but it's just part of the game. Like baseball horse racing is a game of failure for the most part and so we just have to deal with it, move on and make good plays. Keep making value plays, that's the most important thing.

[rangiles]

Hi thaskalos--

I appreciate the suggestion...thank you. I'm working on a new book now and hope to be finished soon.

[rangiles]

Hi mabred--

I'm working on adding some more Pace Box examples on my site. Will have those up soon. Thanks for the suggestion.