Angles that a lot of longshots have going for them

[dav4463]

What are some things you look for in a longshot? I'm talking 9-1 and higher longshots. I have a few that I've noticed over the years that use the Beyer figures. What are some other angles that others use to sniff out these 9-1+ (preferably higher even) longshot horses who frequently win or place?

There was one on April 8 at Santa Anita (I think it was Race 4)that showed her two best races in her pp's on turf at one mile (today's exact distance). Her figures were very competitive, the fave had only run one turf route and ran poorly. There were two horses that showed strong races at today's distance and surface. One of them won and paid $119.00....not meaning to redboard, but the horse was easily a top three contender in this race.

That's an example of one angle with the Beyers...horse is one of the top two in last ten races at today's surface and distance.

Another one is the horse who has a couple of bad races...but has one or two of the top three Beyers in the race....going back as far as ten races.

Another one with the Beyers is to find the horse's best two races.......and see if the jockey that was on the horse then is on the horse today. That is a positive jockey switch to a jock who got the most out of this horse.

I also like a horse who was improving his Beyers and then in his last race jumped in class and ran a terrible race. Then the horse drops down to just above the class level of his next to last race.

Using Last Race Beyer only..... Look at tote board at 3 MTP. Consider only 9-1 and up horses. See if there is one who has a Last Race Beyer within 8 points of the Best Last Race Beyer horse. If you find only one or two....possible play.

Another longshot angle I've seen is a shipper from a (lesser) track going to a bigger track, but the figures suggest he belongs in the race. I've seen quite a few Sunland shippers get ignored at Lone Star Park for example. I know there are plenty others like that at other tracks.

Another ignored horse is when an also-eligible gets in a race. A lot of people ignore this horse. Take a second look!

How about a horse that was barely beaten by the fave or second choice recently and this fave or second choice is going off at 6/5 or 2/1....and the just barely beaten horse is at 9/1....happens a lot! Barely beaten means he almost won!

[phattty]

this one doesn't present itself very often...

one of local leading trainers...

coming off dull looking performance

staying at same distance

returning fairly quickly

moving UP in tag

boxcars

[Robert Goren]

A router who was dropped in claiming price and was sprinting in last start. Back up in claiming price and back to a route today. There are trainers who do this all the time with success. I am not sure it shows a profit if you bet it everytime, but if you pick your spots it comes up with some nice winners.

[WaHoo]

a couple angles i like and i want 9:1 or higher odds..

In the last race or second race back, in lenghts no further than 4 1/2 lenghts back and doesn't run closer than 2 1/2 lenghts of leader and finishes 4th or 5th.

Maidens I like PGL (postion, gain and lenghts) in last race
from the 1st call to finish must pass 3 horses and gain 6 lenghts, preferred out of money finish.

[Ocala Mike]

Here's an angle (or system) that goes back at least 60 years, and it still latches on to big prices today. I learned it from my father, who never failed to back a horse because its odds were too high:

1. Last 3 races must be for higher claiming price or class than today.
2. Horse must have run OUT OF THE MONEY in each of last 3 races, or not better than SHOW in just one of them.
3. Horse must have WON one of its prior 3 races (before the bad form cycle) OR show a 1/3 in the money record for this year and last (from summary box).
4. Horse must have started within last 30 days.

Longshot city!


Ocala Mike

[Tape Reader]

<ML at approximately 10 MTP and >ML at PT. Take it to the bank.

[MaTH716]

I like when a horse debuts on an off track and runs terribly, then in his/her second start catches a fast track. Many times these horses get overlooked based on their prior poor performance and improve vastly between having a race under their belts and now running on a fast track.

[fmolf]

this just happened today at turf paradise in the 6th...seemingly oof form horse with back class as defined by earnings per start.This horse the # 5 had almost double the per race earnings of his closest competitor and payed $27.00.....I have found other winners over the years like this,this was a real longshot because his form was so terrible.usually this angle finds horses in the 5/1...6/1 range.

[Irish Boy]

One angle that's worked for me is betting on horses that are only 50-1 or better. It almost never works but 100% of them are longshots, so percentage-wise it does perfectly.

[fmolf]

here are two claiming angles i like to play......the first is any horse claimed by a top tier claiming trainer or any trainer with good first after the claim record(18% or higher)...the second is bet any horse 8ys old or older that has been claimed by top claiming trainer or one with good first after the claim record

[windstone]

every time a shot hits the board or wins i always go back and look to see what i can pick up on that i didn't notice before the race. one of the things that comes up a lot when i can see nothing else in the horses pp is the owner and trainer are one in the same.

[trackcat]

I posted an angle play when I joined this forum. I posted it as Angle Play in the disscusion forum. It's called spots and blots. For me it has been a good angle play, but like everything else in life its not going to hit all the time but when it does it more than makes up for the losses. I have hit 2 $100.00 plus win tickets with it. Payoffs have ranged mostly in the 5/1 to 20/1 range. As for keeping records on the play I am on the plus side for the year so far. It also seems to work best with single qualifiers in a race.

[trackcat]

David: I see you look for angle plays. I like playing them also. I left a thread a couple of days ago on your topic. Today (monday) the first race at MNR had a single qualifier and he came through at 40.40 18.00 13.40. The 2nd race also had a single qualifier, he didn't win but he made it for show for 9.20. I'm not trying to push this angle on people, just enjoy the forum and have passed this angle along for players to enjoy. Best of luck to you.

Trackcat

[Marlin]

this one doesn't present itself very often...

one of local leading trainers...

coming off dull looking performance

staying at same distance

returning fairly quickly

moving UP in tag

boxcarsSimilar angle to the filly that won the Ashland. After getting killed in the Bourbonette they race her right back in the G1 Ashland. She paid $99. Her presence in the race confounded me and luckily forced me to use her.

[trackcat]

sometimes the force is with us...congradulations:)

[jamey1977]

this one doesn't present itself very often...

one of local leading trainers...

coming off dull looking performance

staying at same distance

returning fairly quickly

moving UP in tag

boxcars
One of my best Angles for longshot winners. Is wire to wire win. One of last 6 starts. No 2nd- No 3rd. Must be wire to wire win 1-1-1-1-1-1. Focus on those. 9 to 1 and up. If there are 2 in the same race. 9 to 1 and up. Bet both. Got a 156 dollar horse at Hollywood Park, last year. Don't be afraid of the odds. Hollywood has crazy longshots. Don't try just one circuit. Do it on 3 different ones- New York- North And South Calif. The hit rate is there. But as always, those damn losing streaks. With fine tuning a handsome R.O.I can be returned.

[delayjf]

One thing I've noticed that is common with older longshot winners is that even though their recent speed figures are bad, somewhere in their PP they show a beyer number that is competitive with this field.

I think a lot of trainers might be getting away from sending their horses for the money when the angle is based on their last race. Preferring to give them a race - normally a dull performance that takes nothing out of the horse but throws the public off as they were expecting a big run in the last race.

I've seen examples of the above happen when a horse suffers a "obviously" horrible trip, which was well documented. Everybody assumes the horse will improve sharply and win with a clean trip and they bet his odds down. He runs a dull race,finishes mid pack - but then comes back to win at higher odds in the second race after to the troubled trip.

[CheckMark]

Here's an angle (or system) that goes back at least 60 years, and it still latches on to big prices today. I learned it from my father, who never failed to back a horse because its odds were too high:

1. Last 3 races must be for higher claiming price or class than today.
2. Horse must have run OUT OF THE MONEY in each of last 3 races, or not better than SHOW in just one of them.
3. Horse must have WON one of its prior 3 races (before the bad form cycle) OR show a 1/3 in the money record for this year and last (from summary box).
4. Horse must have started within last 30 days.

Longshot city!


Ocala Mike

Just searching this today. Seems like a cool idea to play around with. Whoops did I say that out loud? :pound:

Might use it tomorrow.

[spang99]

Speed and fade 1st start back from a layoff. Always bet them back in their 2nd start and often get a decent price.

State bred horses who have raced without success outside the program who return to face state bred horses again.

[Appy]

Here's an angle (or system) that goes back at least 60 years, and it still latches on to big prices today. I learned it from my father, who never failed to back a horse because its odds were too high:

1. Last 3 races must be for higher claiming price or class than today.
2. Horse must have run OUT OF THE MONEY in each of last 3 races, or not better than SHOW in just one of them.
3. Horse must have WON one of its prior 3 races (before the bad form cycle) OR show a 1/3 in the money record for this year and last (from summary box).
4. Horse must have started within last 30 days.

Longshot city!


Ocala Mike

How're you doin pard?

I like your father's attitude!
One of my fave angles, especially in MD races, is the top TS (trainer in this specific situation but NOT top ranked trainer overall) ranked trainer in the field that doesn't otherwise figure, particularly in the other connections/combos. If this horse also happens to be 3rd longest odds on the board I double down. I've hit some really high paying winners using this one.

[mikesal57]

Just searching this today. Seems like a cool idea to play around with. Whoops did I say that out loud? :pound:

Might use it tomorrow.

Check....Do u know that you opened up a 9 year old thread....

most of these guys are....:rip:


or almost there....:lol::lol::lol:

[ZombyWoof]

Check....Do u know that you opened up a 9 year old thread....

most of these guys are....:rip:


or almost there....:lol::lol::lol:

Well, I'm new to the board myself so I certainly appreciate this thread's resurrection! :headbanger:

[CheckMark]

Check....Do u know that you opened up a 9 year old thread....

most of these guys are....:rip:


or almost there....:lol::lol::lol:

I know but it's good to bring back/ask a question about a old thread :cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kliTXacYZA

[Suff]

Different angles for different scenarios.

Young horses moving off the rail.

Older horses with aged races that fit.

No matter what:

Longshots over 15-1 either lack information or the information provided is bad and horse does not look possible.

If you can't get past that, you can never bet them.

Day to day , to bet 15-1 horses means you can go stretches without cashing. And if you cherry pick-- Favorites this day, Longshots this day , and your wrong, you go broke quicker.

Before he was a public handicapper I learned a few tricks from TLG on how to find illogical horses.

1. With exception, Horse's are entered to win or place. Make the case for the horse that the trainer is making. Find that argument somewhere on the page.

2. Take the race apart. Pull all the horses out and put them back in different scenarios. Create the race with horses absent. This is a blind form of throwing horses out and it has a way of surfacing opportunities.

Even if you practice this you might find only a couple horses all day that are worth the risk. And then phase 2: The discipline to bet who you came up with no matter what the tote board says.

[PressThePace]

Different angles for different scenarios.

Young horses moving off the rail.

Older horses with aged races that fit.

No matter what:

Longshots over 15-1 either lack information or the information provided is bad and horse does not look possible.

If you can't get past that, you can never bet them.

Day to day , to bet 15-1 horses means you can go stretches without cashing. And if you cherry pick-- Favorites this day, Longshots this day , and your wrong, you go broke quicker.

Before he was a public handicapper I learned a few tricks from TLG on how to find illogical horses.

1. With exception, Horse's are entered to win or place. Make the case for the horse that the trainer is making. Find that argument somewhere on the page.

2. Take the race apart. Pull all the horses out and put them back in different scenarios. Create the race with horses absent. This is a blind form of throwing horses out and it has a way of surfacing opportunities.

Even if you practice this you might find only a couple horses all day that are worth the risk. And then phase 2: The discipline to bet who you came up with no matter what the tote board says.


Sharp post

[Suff]

Sharp post

Further: Churn. Losing Players. Losing players because they lose.


I'm a losing player. If I wanted to say I'm a break even player, that would be almost true, but not. I lost $3500 in 2019. That's perfect.

I play daily, I play a lot of races, I enjoy it, and I'm not going anywhere.

I play small handle. I play for the pleasure.

And forget the $3500, I spent another $15,000 traveling to racetracks.

9 nights in the Embassy Suites was $4600 last year. More than I lost all year.

Being able to discipline myself to .50 and $1.00 based bets allows me to play for my entire life.

Answer me this Paceadvantage members.. How many people you see brag about bet size at the track? Or walk the cock at the track? Those guys come and go, maximum 5 year lifespan. Most of them either stealing from work or mom & dad left them stupid money. Winners lay low.

Suff guidance, play small, play long.

[jk3521]

Suff guidance, play small, play long.

You are a wise man!

[FakeNameChanged]

That involves early money. Since it's very difficult to figure who will draw the late money, focus on the Early money.

Start with the ML and rank the contenders 1 for lowest ML; 2 for the 2nd lowest and so on. If two are tied, and you have the pp's, then either use odds in l.r. to break ties, OR just make them same rank(both work).
Or if you don't like the ML, use your own odds line.
Then at the first odds flash on the tote board, rank the horses 1 thru 12(or however many are running. The lowest odds again gets a 1, the next lowest a 2, and so on. For the first race, pick a time like 30 MTP or even 20 MTP and use those odds to rank the horses. Note if it's a tiny track with low handles, you could adjust it down to 15 minutes.

So your program will look like this.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -A - - - - - - - - - - - - - - B------------(A-B =Var)
No. . . . .....ML -- Rank- - - ----Odds ........Rank---------Variance
1..............5-1- - - - -3 - - - ------ 3-1- - - - - -2 - - - - - - - (+1)
2- - - ------7-2 - - ----2 - --- --- ---5-1- - - - - 4
3 - - - - - --8-1- - - -- 5- - - - -- ---7-1- - - - - 5
4- - - - ----10-1- - - - 7- - - - ------12-1- - - - 8
5- - - - -- -12-1 - - - -8- - - - - - ---10-1- - - - 7 - - - - ---- -(+1)
6 - - - - - --5-2 - - - -- 1- - - - - -- --8-5- - - - -1
7 - - - - - -15-1- - - - 9- - - - ------- 7-2- - - - -3--- - - - - - -(+6)
8 - - - - - - 6-1- - - -4- - - - - - --- 8-1- - - - -6
9 - - - - - - 20-1- - --10- - - - - - - -25-1- - - -10
10 - - - - - -8-1 - - - -5- - - - - -- ---15-1- - - -9

I like to see a Plus 3 or higher in this number(+3); in the above example, it's a + 6. In short fields +2 works, but usually, the odds aren't as attractive for win bets. In the above example, the horse should look like a legit. 15-1 shot or worse. Nothing in his pp's of last race or two that looks it should be getting this type of action. Including changes to leading jockeys this race, big class drop downs, etc. Layoffs are ok. Ideally you want to see the odds drift up after the initial tote flash, but that doesn't always happen.
This literally only takes a minute to rank after the odds are displayed.

[jimmyb]

Sprinter going long for the first time with 40% more earnings than it's next competitor.

[ChartingHorseValue]

FAKENAMECHANGED post is superb.

I was handicapping in Japan and none of the pps were in English or could even be interpreted. I bet entirely off the tote and the early pool was critical BUT the pools are gigantic there. I think the early money works better in small pools. The one thing Japan horse racing posts on the tote even is a horse's weight. I would look for horses that had very little change in horse weight. They also had enormously long times in the paddock walking around so you could get a good look at each one and many were getting very hot which was an eliminator for me in this case.

[delayjf]

walk the cock

You typed "walk the cock" :lol:

But seriously, one thing common with longshots that I have noticed is change.

Change in distance, track, WX, class, jockey, trainer, equipment, medication, workouts etc.

[ChartingHorseValue]

You typed "walk the cock" :lol:

But seriously, one thing common with longshots that I have noticed is change.

Change in distance, track, WX, class, jockey, trainer, equipment, medication, workouts etc.

Change is good with long shots, bad with favorites.

[mikesal57]

Change is good with long shots, bad with favorites.

I believe most long shots have a trainer "tactic" in the middle of it...