Uncle MO

[abe]

I think that Uncle Mo is the most over hyped house to come along in a long time. Why not give him the Roses now and move on. Look at what he's done so far. Won a MSW 6f, won the Champagn GI 1m, won BC GI 1 1/16(who did he beat in these 2 races). This year he one a "written for him" stakes at 1m. He has only 8 dosage points, and where's his stamina? How many BC winners have won the Derby? How many have won the Derby off only 5 races lifetime and only 2 as a 3y? Again, if he wins the Wood, who will he have beaten? He MUST win decisively and with a great time to show that he has a chance in the Derby. JMHO :cool:

[NTamm1215]

How many have won the Derby off only 2 as a 3y?

That would be each of the last four.

[ArlJim78]

pretty much disagree with everything you said, I think the derby is his to lose. I'll be watching to Wood very closely, as I'm sure everyone else will. Unless he shows some tendency to runoff, or is used quite a bit in the stretch, or otherwise shows some hint that 2 turn routes are not his bag, then I think he will be a deserving favorite and likely winner of the derby. He just appears to be a good deal better than the rest of the lot. Until I see what his weakness is, I just can't look past him.

[Bruddah]

This is just my opinion, and no need for anyone to get upset, but I don't believe Uncle Mo will finish in the Ky Derby dough. He is a brilliant horse, but I believe his pedigree will show the final 1/8th in the Derby. If I am wrong, please allow ketchup when I have to eat my words. :)

[toussaud]

I think he is the most talented 3YO out there, but sometimes the most talented horse doesn't win and I don't think he will win. He's being trained like a horse that needs to make it out the derby and not one that will win the derby. While he's good.. the gap is not as big as some make it out to be between him and the rest.

By august though I think he will be a terror to soceity

[Tom]

All we know for sure about Uncle Duck is that he was the best 2 yo.
I'm having lunch with Bruddah - unless I see something extremely expressive Saturday, I don't like his changes in the Derby. Going got be hot on the front end fro the looks of things. Until he breaks his 2yo top, I do not like him.

[abe]

The whole sentence included more than 5 lifetime starts, and only Big Brown has done that!

[Saratoga_Mike]

That would be each of the last four.

Pesky details.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I think that Uncle Mo is the most over hyped house to come along in a long time. Why not give him the Roses now and move on. Look at what he's done so far. Won a MSW 6f, won the Champagn GI 1m, won BC GI 1 1/16(who did he beat in these 2 races). This year he one a "written for him" stakes at 1m. He has only 8 dosage points, and where's his stamina? How many BC winners have won the Derby? How many have won the Derby off only 5 races lifetime and only 2 as a 3y? Again, if he wins the Wood, who will he have beaten? He MUST win decisively and with a great time to show that he has a chance in the Derby. JMHO :cool:

He's out of an Arch mare - see Blame, BC 2010.

[joanied]

I think UM has enough stamina in his pedigree to get the Derby distance, but things have been so easy for him, I'm not sure he will have the fittness to get the job done, not if he has to go between horses and really duke it out...unless he relly is that good.
Everyone will have eyes glued to him on Wood day.

[elysiantraveller]

All we know for sure about Uncle Duck is that he was the best 2 yo.
I'm having lunch with Bruddah - unless I see something extremely expressive Saturday, I don't like his changes in the Derby. Going got be hot on the front end fro the looks of things. Until he breaks his 2yo top, I do not like him.

But his 2yo top isn't just good enough to beat this crop its enough to annihilate it.

[RXB]

He'd better be a superhorse because otherwise, with the two Softee Toffee preps he's getting, his system figures to be in for a shock when he faces the typically hot-and-contested Derby pace, at least semi-legit competition and an extra furlong.

I won't say that 10f will be beyond him as the bottom side of his pedigree offers some hope, but I'll never be in a rush to lay money down on a son of Indian Charlie at that distance, especially at short odds.

[Saratoga_Mike]

He'd better be a superhorse because otherwise, with the two Softee Toffee preps he's getting, his system figures to be in for a shock when he faces the typically hot-and-contested Derby pace, at least semi-legit competition and an extra furlong. I won't say that 10f will be beyond him as the bottom side of his pedigree offers some hope, but I'll never be in a rush to lay money down on a son of Indian Charlie at that distance, especially at short odds.

The Wood field does look soft, but doesn't that reflect a generally weak 3-yr-old crop? The crop he will face in the Derby?

[PhantomOnTour]

But his 2yo top isn't just good enough to beat this crop its enough to annihilate it.
If he runs back to it he's fine, but Tom's point was that he hasn't yet.

[gm10]

I don't think the 3yo crop is that bad - remember, we can only tell at the end of this season - but I also think that Uncle Mo still stands out and will do so for a few more months at least.

[Skanoochies]

He reminds me kinda of Eskendereya or Pamplemousse (sp) and neither made it to the derby. I was really pissed when Eskendereya never made it, I thought he was the real deal. :mad:

[joanied]

He'd better be a superhorse because otherwise, with the two Softee Toffee preps he's getting, his system figures to be in for a shock when he faces the typically hot-and-contested Derby pace, at least semi-legit competition and an extra furlong.

I won't say that 10f will be beyond him as the bottom side of his pedigree offers some hope, but I'll never be in a rush to lay money down on a son of Indian Charlie at that distance, especially at short odds.

Exactly!! Like I said before...he has just enough stamina in his pedigree to get the distance in the Derby, but he's never had to look another horse in the eye...duke it out, and if he has to wind his way through that feild, will he be fit enough to do it..."softee toffee" just ain't gonna be enough of a 'foundation', IMO....unless he is a super horse:rolleyes: ...
and let's not forget...still another month til Derby day, and we know how these young 3 yr olds can all of a sudden turn into monsters...the Derby ain't Mo's yet!!

[Dahoss9698]

Exactly!! Like I said before...he has just enough stamina in his pedigree to get the distance in the Derby, but he's never had to look another horse in the eye...duke it out, and if he has to wind his way through that feild, will he be fit enough to do it..."softee toffee" just ain't gonna be enough of a 'foundation', IMO....unless he is a super horse:rolleyes: ...
and let's not forget...still another month til Derby day, and we know how these young 3 yr olds can all of a sudden turn into monsters...the Derby ain't Mo's yet!!

Isn't Stay Thirsty going into the Derby with only 2 preps?

[Sekrah]

The Wood field does look soft, but doesn't that reflect a generally weak 3-yr-old crop? The crop he will face in the Derby?

The worst looking horses in the Florida Derby (Arch Traveler, Bowman's Causeway, and Shackelford) looked more dangerous than the 2nd best horse in the Wood. I can say the same for the Santa Anita derby field as well.

Outside of Mo, the Wood Memorial could pass for a $35k Allowance NW2L.

[joanied]

Isn't Stay Thirsty going into the Derby with only 2 preps?

Yep...I beleive, without checking, several of them will...but at least Stay Thirsty does have a pedigree with plenty of staying power...
I didn't bring up him or any other derby horse because we're kinda talking about Mo in this thread.

[Dahoss9698]

Yep...I beleive, without checking, several of them will...but at least Stay Thirsty does have a pedigree with plenty of staying power...
I didn't bring up him or any other derby horse because we're kinda talking about Mo in this thread.

I brought up Stay Thirsty because you like him, even though he is only going to have 2 preps. I don't recall him ever going eye to eye down the lane with another horses either. He's usually too far behind the leaders.

The staying power stuff is funny.

[NTamm1215]

I brought up Stay Thirsty because you like him, even though he is only going to have 2 preps. I don't recall him ever going eye to eye down the lane with another horses either. He's usually too far behind the leaders.

The staying power stuff is funny.

You can't make this stuff up. Not only is there a dosage sighting in this thread but you also have people talking about pedigree power for being a half to a plodder who ran 2nd beaten a mile in the Belmont!

[eastie]

he certainly looks the part. looking at him compared to the others is like looking at Cam Newton next to Nate Newton, Wayne Newton , or Fig Newton. What a specimen. rippped like you read about. I'm gonna be psyched to see the triple crown won this year on a beautiful sunny june day at Belmont.

[PaceAdvantage]

he certainly looks the part. looking at him compared to the others is like looking at Cam Newton next to Nate Newton, Wayne Newton , or Fig Newton. What a specimen. rippped like you read about. I'm gonna be psyched to see the triple crown won this year on a beautiful sunny june day at Belmont.Man, if I had $50,000 for every time I've heard this in the past 10-15 years...

[Thomas Roulston]

Yep...I beleive, without checking, several of them will...but at least Stay Thirsty does have a pedigree with plenty of staying power...
I didn't bring up him or any other derby horse because we're kinda talking about Mo in this thread.


Stay Thirsty's Dosage Profile:

4-6-16-0-0.

Plenty of staying power?

I think not.

[eastie]

Man, if I had $50,000 for every time I've heard this in the past 10-15 years...


would give you......50 grand

[RXB]

All a horse has to do in the Derby is "stay" 10f, not 14+, and Stay Thirsty's breeding is okay for it. There are lots of North American pedigrees these days with no Solid or Professional points.

I just don't think that he's good enough.

[toussaud]

Stay Thirsty's Dosage Profile:

4-6-16-0-0.

Plenty of staying power?

I think not.
still, he's bred to be a classic horse. he's just slow.

[Black Ruby]

If Uncle Mo blows it tomorrow, they should change his name to Uncle No Mo.

[Tom]

The one time Uncle Duck faced a legitimate - fast pace, he exploded and posted a huge fig.

Too bad they are not pursuing his career as a race horse.

[Irish Boy]

The one time Uncle Duck faced a legitimate - fast pace, he exploded and posted a huge fig.

Too bad they are not pursuing his career as a race horse.
They announced he'd be in the Wood, what, six months ago? He is in the Wood tomorrow. If no other horse shows up to one of the premiere Derby preps, that's not the connections fault. They're not running him at Sunland.

[plainolebill]

Uncle Mo towers over this field but sucker that I am I will take a shot against him: Norman Asbjornson :8: to win/place at 15/1 or more.

[Robert Fischer]

Isn't Stay Thirsty going into the Derby with only 2 preps?

Nice work

appreciate the care and creativity you obviously put into it.

not ready to do a serious critique at the moment.

[Robert Fischer]

http://dir.coolclips.com/Travel/Transportation/Air_Travel/Airplanes/Propeller_Planes/cartoon_airplane_with_banner_CoolClips_tran0319.jp g
$$$GO UNCLE MO!!!1 :jump::jump::jump:

[Tom]

They announced he'd be in the Wood, what, six months ago? He is in the Wood tomorrow. If no other horse shows up to one of the premiere Derby preps, that's not the connections fault. They're not running him at Sunland.

I was talking his last win in the Workout Stakes.

[Robert Fischer]

I was talking his last win in the Workout Stakes.
have to admit it was a timely race that they wrote for him. :confused: :)

[Tom]

Where is the "gagging" icon! :D

[gm10]

I'm going to have a wager on 7 Duca.
40/1 is too big.

[toussaud]

when the race is a forgone conclusion before it's ran, you know the horse isn't going to get anything out of it. this is pitiful

[PaceAdvantage]

There seems to be enough speed in this race to keep Uncle Mo honest. I think he'll get somewhat of a test here.

I also think Toby's Corner is a bet at anything over 6.5-1 (which I will no doubt see).

If Uncle Mo doesn't improve much off his last (and that number was his worst ever) and somehow finds himself pressed early, Toby's Corner could nail him late.

If Uncle Mo runs back to any of his races prior to his last, then he will likely win as he pleases whether or not he gets pressed early.

[Some_One]

Right now, I have Uncle Mo as a Quality Road, a one turn miler type, we'll see in 3 minutes by how easy he wins (or doesn't win) how wrong I am, lol.

[ArlJim78]

Uncle Mo by 8 comfortable lengths.

hahaha

[PaceAdvantage]

Thank you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thank you very much.

[PhantomOnTour]

Go 'head PA!!!

Did you play him?

[toussaud]

you can put it on the boarddddddddd YES!!!!

[FantasticDan]

WOWWWW

[parlay]

Uncle Shmoe :lol: :lol: :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

And to think, I almost didn't get my price...he got bet down to 8-1...

[Some_One]

Yep, one turn horse....how come someone else couldn't have passed UM? I had the anti-jumper bet on all the others for 3rd. So close.

[Valuist]

Maybe one day Pletcher will realize babying your horses is NOT the way to win the Derby. You have to give them hard races to get them battle tested. Uncle Mo faced NOTHING in the GP race and a field only slightly better in the Wood.

FRAUD!!!

[toussaud]

i have not been happier than i am right now for a while.

that's what they get for trying to take the easy route to the derby

[Some_One]

Betfair SP was 14-1 on the winner

[Tom]

That's all there is, there ain't no MO!:lol::lol::lol:
Hey, if it looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck.....quack quack quack!


Nice hit, Mike! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

His last race was his worst number EVER (performance figure, according to CJ's numbers).

That alone should have told you something. It has little to do with babying.

[parlay]

Toby took all the late money

[Tom]

Arazi, Part deux?

[Zippy Chippy]

I wouldn't count him out yet.. The Derby is going to be very interesting

[Some_One]

Does CJ adjust for pace? I gave Mo a figure close to his Champagne, however I had his BC win very low, so that's why I question him as a 2 turn horse.

[Marshall Bennett]

Almost looked like he hopped or stumbled shy of the 1/8th pole. Perhaps he was changing leads, haven't seen replay. I don't think he was 100%.

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, Durkin didn't even acknowledge Toby's Corner until very, very late, and ol' Toby was hiding in between for a while... :lol:

[toussaud]

listening to jeff siegel spin this loss is funny. "these are nice 3YO's".. yes that's why uncle mo went off at 1/9.
'

However we have to now look at the long term effects. this race now produces 3 derby horses. the first top 3 will all have enough to get into the derby

[FantasticDan]

BTW, Durkin didn't even acknowledge Toby's Corner until very, very late, and ol' Toby was hiding in between for a while... :lol:And I noticed that Starship Cruiser (last raced in Feb '09) was mentioned a couple times.. :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

Go 'head PA!!!

Did you play him?Ummm...yeah....

I also think Toby's Corner is a bet at anything over 6.5-1 (which I will no doubt see).

[toussaud]

R heat lighting might very well be pletch's best derby horse

it's funny. you would think he will get it. he doesn't coddle his fillies. and his fillies are always stone cold runners. R heat has taken on some of every one and now she's lights out.

[GatetoWire]

Almost looked like he hopped or stumbled shy of the 1/8th pole. Perhaps he was changing leads, haven't seen replay. I don't think he was 100%.

Perhaps he was jumping over his pedigree or his lack of fitness at the 1/8th pole. Take your pick.

[nijinski]

Street Sense still stands out as the only BC Juvenile winner to win the Derby,
and Mo is running to his bloodlines , doubt he goes.

[David-LV]

Uncle MO, Ho, Ho, Ho :lol::lol::lol:

This is the reason we run the race.

Suspect road to the derby without a true test, in this case a bad result.

Congratulations Mike, you nailed it.

_________
David-LV

[blind squirrel]

Calvin Borel,you have a voice mail!

[Zippy Chippy]

My yearly ALL/ALL exacta is looking good again this year :-)

[lamboguy]

i have never been an uncle mo fan. after the race i feel like jumping off the mystic river bridge. i bet the race 2+4 to show thinking that uncle mo was no lock to hit the board. what i didn't realise is that the rest of the field stunk

[Tom]

Does CJ adjust for pace? I gave Mo a figure close to his Champagne, however I had his BC win very low, so that's why I question him as a 2 turn horse. His BC win on CJs was extremely good.

[toussaud]

early beyer?

[abe]

What did I say about Uncle Mo! I rest my case! :cool:

[Relwob Owner]

What did I say about Uncle Mo! I rest my case! :cool:



Nice call Abe

[Mineshaft]

The KY Derby is wide azz open this year

[Mineshaft]

early beyer?




93 thats my guess

[toussaud]

I 100% believe the winner is coming out out of arknasas this year. as always

sway away or the factor IMHO

[Tom]

Pletcher, who is grabbing at straws, said Mo grabbed a quarter.

Maybe he accidentally gave Mo the medication for LAT?

[toussaud]

Pletcher, who is grabbing at straws, said Mo grabbed a quarter.

Maybe he accidentally gave Mo the medication for LAT?
:liar:

[Mineshaft]

grabbed a quarter where? not at the start for sure.

he looked like he wanted to lug in down the lane.

[toussaud]

if he pulled a quarter a la big brown he should be out the derby altogether

[CBedo]

Toby didn't have the cleanest trip either. He got bottled up a couple of times, and coming into the stretch I thought he had lost all momentum.

I liked cashing the 8/1 ticket, but am almost disappointed Mo didn't win so I could play against a very low odds favorite in the Derby possibly.

[elysiantraveller]

Grabbing a Quarter or not if I owned on that horse he wouldn't be running in the Derby...

[toussaud]

as much as I don't like pletcher, I respect Mike Repole for doing that HRTV interview after he lost. I like him alot

[Tom]

Only one mo' furlong to go.....

[Sinner369]

Anyone have a replay of the Wood Memorial...........???

[ceejay]

http://www.ntra.com/videos/index/view/ODA3

[Sinner369]

Thank you, Ceejay.............

[MickJ26]

Seems like a lot of people are rejoicing in the failure of Uncle Mo with "I told you so's", Had he won, everybody would've said he didn't face anybody. Had he lost, he's overrated. It was a lose/lose for Mo regardless. There were a lot of disappointed people leaving Aqueduct today, myself one of them, including many Belmont-style glitterati who typically never go to Aqueduct. It would've been nice to see him win.

[Casino]

Baffert has selected the toughest race for a reason,btw i wouldnt be surprised to see Uncle Mo lose Saturday.

I posted this earlier in the week,he is Quality Road and theres nothing wrong with that.

[PaceAdvantage]

I posted this earlier in the week,he is Quality Road and theres nothing wrong with that.Or, he could be Secretariat still...not only did Secretariat lose the Wood Memorial, but many were whispering that he had distance limitations as well, prior to the Kentucky Derby...

[Bruddah]

Uncle Mo is not a 10 furlong horse. I said, before the Wood, that he would be lucky to hit the board in the Ky Derby. I got his slast furlong today in about 13 sec. Does anyone have anything different?

With the moderate fractions he still should have beaten that group today. Obviously short on conditioning as well. The race should help the conditiong, but he still can't make the 10 furlongs. (JMHO)

[Pell Mell]

This is the kind of race MO should have run 4-5 weeks ago. He will probably be dangerous in the derby now if they get him tight enough.

[Marlin]

This is the kind of race MO should have run 4-5 weeks ago. He will probably be dangerous in the derby now if they get him tight enough.Yup. Everyone please stick with Uncle Mo. If he can't get 1 1/8 that doesn't mean he can't go 1 1/4. Load up!:)

[Shemp Howard]

Moe, Larry the cheese.

[cj]

At least we don't have to hear how astonishing his last quarter was in the fake stakes at GP any longer.

[toussaud]

At least we don't have to hear how astonishing his last quarter was in the fake stakes at GP any longer.
you got any numbers for the big 2 races today?

[Marlin]

At least we don't have to hear how astonishing his last quarter was in the fake stakes at GP any longer.No but we will still have to hear how poor a last quarter in a real stakes at GP was for Dialed In.:)

[Sericm]

"The most astonishing loss since Secretariat!" ARE YOU KIDDING ME!

It's about time for this idiot Durkin to retire!

[Dahoss9698]

"The most astonishing loss since Secretariat!" ARE YOU KIDDING ME!

It's about time for this idiot Durkin to retire!

He said the most astonishing loss in the Wood since Secretariat. Since you disagree, in what Wood was there a bigger upset?

[The Hawk]

Thank you very much.

Much deserved praise, that was spot on.

[toussaud]

I mean, redboarding aside, he was 1 to 9. that was pretty astonishing.

[Sericm]

He said the most astonishing loss in the Wood since Secretariat. Since you disagree, in what Wood was there a bigger upset?

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.

[Hanover1]

If he can't take any more air than that with those fractions, he aint much. Gonna try to wire the Derby too, I suppose? Toss time for NoMo.....not enough work to have him run a different style, and expect to prevail....

[cj]

you got any numbers for the big 2 races today?

Not yet, I'll post when I do.

[PaceAdvantage]

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.Answer the question asked next time. I take it since you didn't, then you must agree with Durkin.

All hat, no cattle = Sericm

[redshift1]

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.

Your sawing the limb on the wrong side.

[Cardus]

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.

I'll try this a little differently: in what Wood Memorial was there a greater upset since 1973, when Secretariat lost?

[PaceAdvantage]

because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.I guess you were asleep last year. Just so you know, Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

[RXB]

Not yet, I'll post when I do.

I'm on vacation right now and don't have access to my stuff but just based on memory and some basic calculations from the charts, they are utterly abysmal for Gr 1. I think the Bay Shore and Comely speed figures will both come back stronger than the Wood, which I think could be sub-90. And the SA Derby # won't be much different-- low 90's is what I'm guessing. And unlike the Fla Derby, the pace numbers won't be much different from the speed figs.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Sericm
because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.


Put Calvin up and pray for rain.

[Jasonm921]

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.


"In the most shocking defeat in the Wood Memorial since Secretariat himself"

He may not be Secretariat....(wont know until his career is over) but find me a bigger upset in the Wood Memorial from 1974-2010.

On a side note...nice to see Aqueduct with a nice crowd (12,000 announced). The downside....They were all squeezed into a clubhouse that is designed to hold 5-7,000 people.

[redshift1]

Your sawing the limb on the wrong side.

Correction:
You're not your

[Sericm]

I guess you were asleep last year. Just so you know, Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

No I wasn't asleep last year. He lucked into it last year and it was what once in 20+ tries.

How many victories in Triple Crown Races does Baffert have, I'll take one of his horses over a Pletcher any day of the week.

[Jasonm921]

My photos from the Wood Memorial and earlier stake races are up. Enjoy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/

[Sericm]

"In the most shocking defeat in the Wood Memorial since Secretariat himself"

He may not be Secretariat....(wont know until his career is over) but find me a bigger upset in the Wood Memorial from 1974-2010.

On a side note...nice to see Aqueduct with a nice crowd (12,000 announced). The downside....They were all squeezed into a clubhouse that is designed to hold 5-7,000 people.

The only reason this was an upset was a Horse that hadn't been tested this year and was strictly hype was 1/9 by the fools who bet him down.

[bigmack]

My photos from the Wood Memorial and earlier stake races are up. Enjoy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/
Always a treat to see your well-crafted work.

Much obliged. :ThmbUp:

[Dahoss9698]

What's the problem. Of course Secretariat's Wood was a big upset but Uncle Mo is no Secretariat and for Durkin to even mention it only makes Durkin an idiot.

Just because the suckers in New York made this horse 1/9 didn't put him in Secretariat's class.

Uncle Mo has always been overhyped the best three year old is THE FACTOR, because unlike Pletcher, Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby.

There is no problem. You made another stupid post. You were asked a few times to clarify it and you can't. Nothing new here.

[Sericm]

There is no problem. You made another stupid post. You were asked a few times to clarify it and you can't. Nothing new here.

I thought I clarified perfectly when I said fools who bet that horse down to 1-9 when he isn't that much of a horse, didn't make it an upset.

And you know what I'm tired of you and Pace's snide remarks so take this forum and shove it up a-- and f--- you both.

[Marshall Bennett]

I thought Durkin said the biggest Wood upset since Secretariat. Don't think he was comparing Mo to Secretariat.

[098poi]

I thought I clarified perfectly when I said fools who bet that horse down to 1-9 when he isn't that much of a horse, didn't make it an upset.

And you know what I'm tired of you and Pace's snide remarks so take this forum and shove it up a-- and f--- you both.

Sericm you can make your point about what Tom Durkin said without calling him an idiot. You can also make your point about how you feel about some other poster's remarks about you without the last part of your statement!!! :ThmbDown:

[Jasonm921]

Thanks BigMack.

The fact that he was 1/9 or if the system allowed it to be....possibly 1/20 is exactly why it was a major upset. In a way I'm not totally upset this happened because I believe that horses need to run to stay in shape. The current system of two starts before the Derby leaves absolutely no room for any hiccups and does not give the horse a foundation to go a 1 1/4 or race 3 times in 5 weeks. Race horses have to race. Bottom line.

[Canarsie]

"The most astonishing loss since Secretariat!" ARE YOU KIDDING ME!

It's about time for this idiot Durkin to retire!

The guy made a call during after race and you have the audacity to criticize it? It's not like he had the wrong horse or finish called. He made a statement after the finish line that took less than 10 seconds. This is coming from someone who isn't Durkin's biggest fan but for this he MUST be defended.

If you think it's so easy go put an application in and call the race yourself. A friend of mine calls races I really couldn't believe all the work that goes into it when he showed me. One more thing is it's a profession where there are probably way less than 1,000 people (probably 200 full time) who can do it. That's far less than people who play professional baseball on all levels, football, basketball, or hockey.

If the call offended you so much turn on the MUTE button.

[lamboguy]

i sincerely hope that when dialed in runs in the derby he makes a good account of himself. i really like the way that nick zito has brought that horse around. the 2x race against older was alot tougher than any derby prep i have seen this year. the horse looked like he had major improvement to me in the florida derby. nick zito has proven that with his long experience in training babies that somethings work sometimes and he has the guts to try them.

[Jasonm921]

I agree. Zito got killed for running him in the allowance against older horses. Thinking outside the box can reap benefits....hopefully it will in a few weeks.

[Robert Fischer]

extremely disappointing. Uncle Mo was supposed to inject value into my derby winnings as an underlay. F#ck! This is like War Pass all over again :bang:. I handicap the s#it out of these derby favorites and pass the weak preps expecting them to only add to their backing, and I get no money out of the deal.

Uncle Mo is extremely talented but he has some conformation flaws that along with his running style make running a derby pace an automatic against-the-grain scenario. Either he was born that way, or perhaps as likely there was pressure to produce EARLY stakes quality fast running for sales and the owner, and he wasn't able to grow and develop at a slower pace. If Uncle Mo had been brought along as a late developing derby horse he may have been very dangerous depending on his natural conformation. But then he wouldn't have been instantly winning stakes immediately as a 2yo.
As far as race info, it would be interesting to know if his left front shoe was a little loose after the race.

[Jasonm921]

I have a shot in which he is in the middle of a lead change where the left front hoof is clearly visible as he entered the clubhouse turn http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5606449268/ .

From the angle the shoe looks secure. I will say this...reviewing my shots he does appear to make about four lead changes before entering the clubhouse turn. Is that indicative of a horse that hurt himself...perhaps. Maybe the horse people could answer that.

[classhandicapper]

I think the same things I've been saying since the beginning.

1. His 1st start wasn't nearly as good as it looked because it was strongly bias aided

2. His 2nd start was an easy trip win against a poor Champagne field. It was no better than dozens of races I've seen by 2YOs before it.

3. His Juvenile was great. It was one of the best performances I've ever seen by a 2YO

4. His 3YO debut was an extremely slow paced race that was impossible to evaluate with precision. When paces are that slow, it becomes physically impossible for any horse to run fast enough late to earn a good figure. Since there are both mediocre and great horses that can walk around the track and close extremely fast, you have no idea what you are dealing with until after the fact. The best you can do is look at prior races and ASSUME form is unchanged. In this case form was complicated by the fact that there was a seasonal turn. So there was less of a guarantee his good form was sustained.

My read all along (posted regularly elsewhere) was that the most likely scenario was that he was very talented but not particularly special 2YO with one isolated great race that may not may not be duplicated.

The only thing that has changed now is that it's more likely my read was correct and less likely he will develop as a 3YO and move to a sustained new peak.

I didn't even consider betting the race because I expected him to run back to his Champagne form at a minimum. So I am somewhat disappointed.

In his defense I will say it's fairly common for a very good 2YO to not develop as 3, but I think it's very rare for one to get worse unless there are physical problems.

His effort was probably a bit below his Champagne level 2YO form. Unless there is something wrong with him, he should improve a bit from here. It's not over yet for him, though 10F under pace pressure doesn't look so good right now.

[Jasonm921]

I reviewed the photos from the start I don't see anything except for a point where his tail goes up. The two photos are in sequence... roughly 1/5 of a second apart.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5605911215/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5605906009/in/photostream/


Is that an indication of pain....I don't know. I did here a report from another photog after the race that his left leg (unknown which one) was noticiably scraped up so I don't think Pletcher was lying about "grabbing his quarter".

[Dahoss9698]

I thought I clarified perfectly when I said fools who bet that horse down to 1-9 when he isn't that much of a horse, didn't make it an upset.

And you know what I'm tired of you and Pace's snide remarks so take this forum and shove it up a-- and f--- you both.

Let's make it easy. What was a bigger upset?

Your last part is funny. I don't think I've responded to you in close to a year. But I do remember your public apology thread last time I dared to question your opinion. No need for another one after this tantrum.

[forced89]

I 100% believe the winner is coming out out of arknasas this year.

History is on your side. Over the last 5 or 6 years there have been a lot of horses coming out of the Arkansas Derby that have done well in the Triple Crown races.

[RXB]

My photos from the Wood Memorial and earlier stake races are up. Enjoy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/

Nice shots, Jason. Thanks for sharing them.

[RXB]

Beyers are 94 for the Wood and 95 for SA Derby. I think my own numbers will come back lower for the Wood.

[OntheRail]

I reviewed the photos from the start I don't see anything except for a point where his tail goes up. The two photos are in sequence... roughly 1/5 of a second apart.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5605911215/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5605906009/in/photostream/


Is that an indication of pain....I don't know. I did here a report from another photog after the race that his left leg (unknown which one) was noticiably scraped up so I don't think Pletcher was lying about "grabbing his quarter".
Tail rise could be nothing... the thing that intrigues me is the shaved skinned looking patch on his right leg. If it's shaved could of been some type of medical attention to the leg in the last week. If skinned well we've all banged our chins and know it hurts like hell for what seems like 10 minutes while we limp about muttering profanities.

Anyway to get a zoomed view of his leg?

[toussaud]

joanne jones just said she was told mo is out the derby

[classhandicapper]

joanne jones just said she was told mo is out the derby

That was quick

[Jasonm921]

Just heard it also. Like the modern pitcher...the modern thoroughbred is worked less and injured more often.

On the Rail. Here ya go. This is as clear as I could get it without making it grainy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5606219087/

[olddaddy]

There was good money in the derby future pools on Mo. Since the pools arent adjusted by non runners, who cleans up on this Churchill?

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought I clarified perfectly when I said fools who bet that horse down to 1-9 when he isn't that much of a horse, didn't make it an upset.

And you know what I'm tired of you and Pace's snide remarks so take this forum and shove it up a-- and f--- you both.No doubt, this is definitely our loss...

And whether you consider them fools or not, when a horse that heavily favored loses a race as prestigious as the Wood Memorial, it's an upset.

The only thing foolish was your criticism of Durkin's remark. It was spot-on, end of story.

[classhandicapper]

Life at Ten just came back in a weak ALW race and lost at 1-5. Granted there were some question marks about her given the way she went out last year, but still.

I haven't tracked every Pletcher horse in Florida, but several high profile horses (including R Heat Lightning who is now running extremely well) came back short of expectations.

I have no idea why that would be the case, but I have seen instances of all the horses for a particular trainer coming back very short of their best or totally loaded off a layoff. In fact, it makes sense that that weather (good or bad), minor bugs (the whole barn sick or not), timing, and other factors should impact all the horses being handled in a particular location very similarly.

Perhaps the whole bunch of them (including MO) are very short horses.

[FantasticDan]

joanne jones just said she was told mo is out the derbyNot according to this:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/62394/uncle-mo-grabs-a-quarter-in-wood

[FantasticDan]

DRF:

http://www.drf.com/news/uncle-mo-have-blood-tests-remains-kentucky-derby-trail

[PaceAdvantage]

Was Uncle Mo's last race figure as bad everywhere else (Beyer, TG, etc.) as it was on CJ's numbers?

Like I said, it was his worst performance figure of his career, and that to me stated all I needed to know about whether or not it was worth it to bet against him...

[gm10]

Was Uncle Mo's last race figure as bad everywhere else (Beyer, TG, etc.) as it was on CJ's numbers?

Like I said, it was his worst performance figure of his career, and that to me stated all I needed to know about whether or not it was worth it to bet against him...

That wasn't a 'performance figure', it was a glorified workout figure.
Of course it was the lowest of his career.

Beyer had that win 19 points below his BC victory.

[GlenninOhio]

Was Uncle Mo's last race figure as bad everywhere else (Beyer, TG, etc.) as it was on CJ's numbers?

Deck Jerardi presented a rather impassioned defense of Uncle Mo's weak Beyer last out on drf.com - along the lines of "When the early fractions are so slow, it's impossible to achieve a strong final time".

Jerardi made it very clear that this effort did nothing to diminish the horse's stature in his estimation.

It will be interest to see if there is a sequel column.

[toussaud]

Not according to this:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/62394/uncle-mo-grabs-a-quarter-in-wood
I did not say he would not run in the derby.; damn guys. I am simply saying what Joanne said, actually twice on HrTV today. do not kill the messenger. if she's wrong she is wrong

[classhandicapper]

Was Uncle Mo's last race figure as bad everywhere else (Beyer, TG, etc.) as it was on CJ's numbers?

Like I said, it was his worst performance figure of his career, and that to me stated all I needed to know about whether or not it was worth it to bet against him...

I'm not sure about every source, but TG had his first start this year about 3 points slower on their scale (several lengths) than last year with a notation that it was a very slow pace and that he won handily.

The Ragozin Sheets also had it slower, but they made a "slow pace adjustment" to the figure to be more in line with his figures from last year. They only do that in extremely slow paced race scenarios.

I would say that everyone universally thought the final time of the race was slow, but there were a variety of opinions on how to evaluate the race given that the pace was extremely slow and his closing time very fast relative to dirt norms.

To me, it's impossible to know how fast he was capable of running that day with a more normal pace. There is no formula equally applicable to all horses when the early pace is that slow.

Some mediocre horses can close very fast relative to dirt norms if the pace is slow enough. That doesn't tell you much about what they have in reserve and how fast they could run if used early in a more normally run race. However, when an already proven fast horse get's an extremely slow pace and comes home really really fast, they are almost always capable of running faster under more normal conditions.

Mo's overall record indicated he was a much faster horse than his first start this year. So typically he was probably 90% to be able to run faster than he did in his first start given a more average pace.

The incremental complication in his case was that this was a new season. We've seen repeatedly that some horses don't come back the same the following year. So there was some incremental probability that even though the pace was very slow and he came home very fast he was not the same horse (at least yet).

[PaceAdvantage]

From CJ's website on what constitutes his performance figure:

The final number is the Performance Figure, or an overall rating of the running line. In this line it is a 68. The number takes into account early position, the race shape (pace figure relation to speed figure), and the horse's pace and speed figures. There are also minor adjustments for weight and horse maturity.

[cj]

His last race was obviously slow by his standards, and any other moderately talented 3 year old.

The real question was why. Was it the pace, the horse, or a combination of both? I have found that these slow paced races on dirt, it is rarely a good idea to adjust the figure upwards because the pace was slow. That isn't really the case on other surfaces, but on dirt it is.

[classhandicapper]

His last race was obviously slow by his standards, and any other moderately talented 3 year old.

The real question was why. Was it the pace, the horse, or a combination of both?

IMO that answer was impossible to know because every horses has a different combination of stamina and brilliance/speed. That balance leads to it's overall final time ability at each distance under average pace and track conditions.

At one pace extreme, a brilliantly fast horse with stamina limitations might totally out kick a more even paced horse with a lot of stamina that normally out kicks and beats him.

IMO all you can do is look at prior races and try to determine if the horse is in the same form as in the past or in an upward/downard form cycle. The number itself is often borderline irrelevant.

The other thing we all know is that there are clearly physical limitations to how fast any horse can close and that "in general" better horses are capable of closing faster than inferior ones.

For Uncle Mo to have run a final time figure comparable to his 2YO form in his first start this year he would have had to close in about 21 4/5 or faster following back to back 24 flat quarters. I'm not even sure he has 21 4/5 speed in the first quarter, let alone after running 6 furlongs with back to back 24s.

IMO there was no way at all to know where he was after that first start. I know I was confident I was clueless. :lol:

[cj]

IMO there was no way at all to know where he was after that first start.

I agree, I wasn't saying it could be answered.

I will say that the race was so slow early it was scary. I didn't think that was a good sign at all.

[classhandicapper]

I agree, I wasn't saying it could be answered.

I will say that the race was so slow early it was scary. I didn't think that was a good sign at all.

Yea, I hear you.

I'm not even sure that's a great way to prepare a horse. He's more of a front runner. It's nice to back down the pace if you have the opportunity because there's no other quality speeds, but most really great front runners just go out and torch their opponents. They back it down from blistering fast to so long, goodbye and I'll see ya. :lol:

They run more like The Factor did in his last start. He didn't kill himself relative to his own natural blistering speed, but everyone chasing him knew they were chasing a real racehorse.

[OntheRail]

Just heard it also. Like the modern pitcher...the modern thoroughbred is worked less and injured more often.

On the Rail. Here ya go. This is as clear as I could get it without making it grainy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5606219087/


Thanks Jason... and real nice photos you have taken

It really looks like they did some real recent work on Mo's knee. Anyone else have an opinion or some knowledge as to what's up with Mo's leg?

[joanied]

As always lately...I'm late to the party...been busy with some family matters...

first I'd like to comment on jason's photos...as always...excellent...I swear, jason, you can take a photograph, my man:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ...as for the close up of Mo's knee...that is a fantastic shot because I doubt many would have noticed that shaved part...that ain't no scratch...they most definetly did something on that leg...that was done with a shaver...only one conclusion can be drawn...he got some kind of shot there...no other reason for it.

so what is going on with noMo :confused: ...I have not been one on his bandwagon, so his failing in the Wood is no surprise to me...I just feel really bad for Mike Repole...he's such a great guy and so damned good for racing...but I think he'll have to wait a while before he wins the Kentucky Derby....

maybe Mo changing leads so often wasn't due to grabbing his quarter, maybe it has something to do with that very neat, square shaved patch just below his knee.

Hey, Pace...nice call on the winner :ThmbUp:

And yes, I agree with DURKIN....this was a huge upset, and he is far from an "idiot"...the person that called him that maybe is one:)

[sonnyp]

i saw that shaved area on his right fore leg. looks like a splint more than the knee.

i saw another picture of his front lower legs after the race that was taken from behind to show the quarter he grabbed. i was a little surprised at the beating those rundown bandages took. he runs down quite a bit.

he also wears that figure 8 halter which means he probably takes a pretty good hold and probably doesn't relax. that will cost him a lot the further they try to go with him.

[joanied]

i saw that shaved area on his right fore leg. looks like a splint more than the knee.

i saw another picture of his front lower legs after the race that was taken from behind to show the quarter he grabbed. i was a little surprised at the beating those rundown bandages took. he runs down quite a bit.

he also wears that figure 8 halter which means he probably takes a pretty good hold and probably doesn't relax. that will cost him a lot the further they try to go with him.

I don't think he can go much further:D ...couldn't help it...I know what you mean!!

[sonnyp]

I don't think he can go much further:D ...couldn't help it...I know what you mean!!



i was just thinking if they continued on the derby trail.

does that look like a splint to you ?

[Cardus]

As always lately...I'm late to the party...been busy with some family matters...

first I'd like to comment on jason's photos...as always...excellent...I swear, jason, you can take a photograph, my man:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ...as for the close up of Mo's knee...that is a fantastic shot because I doubt many would have noticed that shaved part...that ain't no scratch...they most definetly did something on that leg...that was done with a shaver...only one conclusion can be drawn...he got some kind of shot there...no other reason for it.

so what is going on with noMo :confused: ...I have not been one on his bandwagon, so his failing in the Wood is no surprise to me...I just feel really bad for Mike Repole...he's such a great guy and so damned good for racing...but I think he'll have to wait a while before he wins the Kentucky Derby....

maybe Mo changing leads so often wasn't due to grabbing his quarter, maybe it has something to do with that very neat, square shaved patch just below his knee.

Hey, Pace...nice call on the winner :ThmbUp:

And yes, I agree with DURKIN....this was a huge upset, and he is far from an "idiot"...the person that called him that maybe is one:)

How do you know this?

You saw him on TV, is that it?

[Tom]

Somebody help me here, didn't we have a big discussion about a shaved spot on some horse a year or maybe two ago?

This sounds so familiar....just can't place who it was.

[sonnyp]

i don't remember the prior discussion. what is it about the shaved spot that is confussing you ?

[DeanT]

Do they cryo splints Sonny?

[sonnyp]

Do they cryo splints Sonny?

i've been away for a long time. as in most situations, there were many options with different recovery time for each.

for splints cryo "freezing" was one but it involves a certain amount of trauma from the instrument that applies the liquid nitrogen. sometimes it creates swelling and discomfort and a day or two of just walking. usually with this proceedure, the hair grows back with the tell-tale white dots in the contact points.

other options with longer term recovery would be blistering the area with an iodine solution or even tougher was pin firing with a hot needle then blistering with liquid mercury. recovery from this is very long term.

quickest, and least dibilitating is the needle with a cortisone.

the big fear with any invassive proceedure is infection and thats why the area is clipped with surgical grade clippers which takes the hair right down to the skin.

[DeanT]

Thanks Sonny. I can't remember dealing with splints. He looked very odd on his right front to me during the race, so that picture struck a chord. Awesome photographs btw Jason. You have a wonderful talent.

[AgainstAllOdds]

IF the shaved spot indicates an injection site, why would they have even taken the chance on running him? We have a filly that gets cortisone injections for a very small chip, but she isn't a race horse either. This would certainly account for the bad showing, but it doesn't reflect well on the connections for sure.

[DeanT]

IF the shaved spot indicates an injection site, why would they have even taken the chance on running him? We have a filly that gets cortisone injections for a very small chip, but she isn't a race horse either. This would certainly account for the bad showing, but it doesn't reflect well on the connections for sure.

If the Derby disqualified any horse that was given vet work in the previous 60 days, I think the field would have no starters.

[FenceBored]

Somebody help me here, didn't we have a big discussion about a shaved spot on some horse a year or maybe two ago?

This sounds so familiar....just can't place who it was.

Damn you're good.

Might you be thinking of Eskendereya?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=876441

(first mention of shaved legs is post #35)

[AgainstAllOdds]

If the Derby disqualified any horse that was given vet work in the previous 60 days, I think the field would have no starters.


A spot that is shaved and not grown back is more recent than 60 days though. Are you saying a horse that received a cortisone shot possibly a week ago would be allowed to run? I have to question the connections then That's a huge risk to take isn't it?

[sonnyp]

IF the shaved spot indicates an injection site, why would they have even taken the chance on running him? We have a filly that gets cortisone injections for a very small chip, but she isn't a race horse either. This would certainly account for the bad showing, but it doesn't reflect well on the connections for sure.

i never personally had a horse like mo, but only they know how that came to their decision.

as for the shaved spot, thats vet work. i don't know what was done exactly, obviously. from the location on the leg, again, i'm guessing a splint. i'm sure if that is it, their decision was based on x-rays and a multitude of medical opinions. splints can be sore but not a big deal as far as structure ,support etc.

i remember the first time a vet explained one to me. he said it was like a big piece of wood being frayed on the edge. that little piece that kind of curls up protrudes outward int the soft tissue and it hurts. the cortisone cushions it and many times "kills" it.

[Robert Fischer]

I have a shot in which he is in the middle of a lead change where the left front hoof is clearly visible as he entered the clubhouse turn http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/5606449268/ .

From the angle the shoe looks secure. I will say this...reviewing my shots he does appear to make about four lead changes before entering the clubhouse turn. Is that indicative of a horse that hurt himself...perhaps. Maybe the horse people could answer that.

great pics.
in several posts great pics.

I didn't actually see his shoe come loose, but it was a hunch on something that could result from his running motion.
Injection site pics are interesting as well. :ThmbUp:

[AgainstAllOdds]

Poor horse. He sure looked like something was bothering him. He appeared to change leads a lot to me. I thought maybe he ran out of gas, but now I'm thinking it was something else completely. I heard he is out of the Derby, so someone is finally doing the right thing. I hope he fully recovers to race again.

I commend Baffert. He could have put a bar shoe on Jaycito and run him with a foot abscess too, but he chose not to. I guess there's a reason he's my favorite trainer.

[DeanT]

A spot that is shaved and not grown back is more recent than 60 days though. Are you saying a horse that received a cortisone shot possibly a week ago would be allowed to run? I have to question the connections then That's a huge risk to take isn't it?

Vet work like that can be done on a horse a few days before the race. It's no risk; in fact they race better because of it. But often times the underlying problem is not fixed with it.

[Dahoss9698]

Poor horse. He sure looked like something was bothering him. He appeared to change leads a lot to me. I thought maybe he ran out of gas, but now I'm thinking it was something else completely. I heard he is out of the Derby, so someone is finally doing the right thing. I hope he fully recovers to race again.

I commend Baffert. He could have put a bar shoe on Jaycito and run him with a foot abscess too, but he chose not to. I guess there's a reason he's my favorite trainer.

Trolling at it's finest.

Well done.

[AgainstAllOdds]

You get on my last nerve. Who exactly am I a troll of? Can you tell me that? You are very quick to jump to judgement, so put your opinion out there where I can see it.. So, just who do you think I am big boy?

[sonnyp]

horses should change their leads going into a turn and coming out of a turn. they should be on a right lead in the straight and the left lead on the turns.

changing leads multiple times in the straight is not a good sign.

[Dahoss9698]

You get on my last nerve. Who exactly am I a troll of? Can you tell me that? You are very quick to jump to judgement, so put your opinion out there where I can see it.. So, just who do you think I am big boy?

I'm quick to jump to conclusions? You have no idea what you are talking about at all in this thread (including what a troll is), but as usual, it doesn't stop you.

It's just all very familiar. Never a clue and never in doubt.

[AgainstAllOdds]

I'm quick to jump to conclusions? You have no idea what you are talking about at all in this thread (including what a troll is), but as usual, it doesn't stop you.

It's just all very familiar. Never a clue and never in doubt.


What are you on, and do you share? :rolleyes:

[Dahoss9698]

What are you on, and do you share? :rolleyes:

Nice deflection.

Do you think Baffert ever sends a horse to the track that has had some sort of vet work close to the race they are running in?

[sonnyp]

Nice deflection.

Do you think Baffert ever sends a sore horse to the track or has sent a horse to the track that has had some sort of injection close to the race they were running in?


yes......yes

[Dahoss9698]

yes......yes

I realize this. I'm trying to make point.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not only that, AgainstAllOdds was wrong about Mo not going on to the Derby.

As of now, he's still on the Derby trail...

[AgainstAllOdds]

You seem rather facinated with me for some reason. You HAND now OK.

[AgainstAllOdds]

joanne jones just said she was told mo is out the derby


Please be more careful before you accuse me of something I didn't say at all PA.

[Dahoss9698]

Please be more careful before you accuse me of something I didn't say at all PA.

Ummmm...

I heard he is out of the Derby, so someone is finally doing the right thing.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Ummmm...


Read above. It was Toussaud who made the statement. That is where I heard it...right here..tonight...so get your facts straight.

[Dahoss9698]

Read above. It was Toussaud who made the statement. That is where I heard it...right here..tonight...so get your facts straight.


Right, he said he heard someone say it. Then a few posts down someone put up two links which indicate this isn't the case.

So hours later you said you heard he wasn't running. My facts are straight. Never right and never in doubt.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Right, he said he heard someone say it. Then a few posts down someone put up two links which indicate this isn't the case.

So hours later you said you heard he wasn't running. My facts are straight. Never right and never in doubt.


I didn't click on any links big shot, and I didn't think I posted hours later. I simply said I heard it, and I did. I'm pretty sick of internet bullies, so goodnight. It actually doesn't matter to me if Mo runs in the Derby or not. I have no real interest in betting him either way. If you are looking for trouble you are looking in the wrong place, because I refuse to buy into your ignorance.

[Dahoss9698]

I didn't click on any links big shot, and I didn't think I posted hours later. I simply said I heard it, and I did. I'm pretty sick of internet bullies, so goodnight. It actually doesn't matter to me if Mo runs in the Derby or not. I have no real interest in betting him either way. If you are looking for trouble you are looking in the wrong place, because I refuse to buy into your ignorance.

No one is bullying anyone, although it's a nice touch. The deflections are nice also. I guess if you keep deflecting and avoiding the act will never get old.

You didn't need to clink on any links. It's all here in the thread. Someone, somewhere might buy this act, but I'm not and I can't imagine anyone else is.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm putting an end to this tangent right now. Get back on topic.

And in case anyone is wondering, the facts point to Dahoss being correct on all counts (no big surprise there).

[Jasonm921]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]great pics.
in several posts great pics.

I didn't actually see his shoe come loose, but it was a hunch on something that could result from his running motion.
Injection site pics are interesting as well. :ThmbUp:[/QUOTE

Thanks, I thought maybe he took a bad step and possibly pulled something coming out of the gate. That was the angle I was looking at. The shaved site didnt catch my attention because I just assumed that they do tests on him all the time. I am happy they are keeping him on the Derby trail. Too often now we've seen top horses lose a race and the management decides to take their horse and go home....screwing the fan. If he is healthy let him run...he still may be one of the more talented runners in the race. Now you will get him at 8-1 instead of even money.

[Tom]

Damn you're good.

Might you be thinking of Eskendereya?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=876441

(first mention of shaved legs is post #35)

Bingo! That's the thread.

Thanks

[GARY Z]

Uncle Mo is now proven vulnerable as a result of his efforts in the Wood.

Breeding, layoff, possible injury (quarter ) now has everyone salivating over
the Derby field which should now swell due to UM"s loss on Saturday.

Flip side is the win/place finishers may have run their top,
and any conjecture on the winner of the Derby is useless
until the draw including the evaluaion of weather conditions.

I've never been a Pletcher fan, especially after the LAT insanity,
so I guess what comes around ,goes around for Mr P & JV.

That said,Mike Repole demonstrated his class at the interview
with Caton and the Mig after the Wood, and I am wishing Uncle Mo runs his best race on Derby Day in an effort to prove this horse's stature
as the (former?) Derby favorite.

[GatetoWire]

Based on Jason's great photos I think we can put two and two together and understand why only 2 preps and the easy Timely Writer as a first start.
Unless the splint marks and the left knee signs of injection are just maintenance, it's clear that Pletcher is trying to walk the very fine line of keeping him sound and getting him fit to compete in the Derby.
Those two goals do not always result in great success and often lead to a horse that cannot live up to his billing because the trainer is not able to give the horse the conditioning he needs to compete at the level he needs to win.

In today's game the ability to keep a horse sound and get him to the proper fitness level is paramount for success. If Uncle Mo has been battling some issues it's going to be very hard for him to get back to his Breeders Cup form.

[Dahoss9698]

That said,Mike Repole demonstrated his class at the interview
with Caton and the Mig after the Wood, and I am wishing Uncle Mo runs his best race on Derby Day in an effort to prove this horse's stature
as the (former?) Derby favorite.

He also proved his class with his remarks pre Wood in relation to Dialed In and Zito :rolleyes: .

[GARY Z]

true, and Nicky has stated all the way through UM was the horse to beat
in the Derby.

Regardless of Mike's demeanor, this has to be a crushing blow for
hm as an owner(despite the comparisons to Big Red's loss in the Wood).

For the record, I've never been a fan of this team, and I'm generally off
the fav. while I see or envision holes in the race


Based upon the field in the Wood, it was UM's race to lose, and clearly
this horse was unlike the one that we've seen before due to any of the
factors I've previously stated and hopefully not related to injury.

Perhaps we will get to see the real Mo in the Ky Deby despite the rumours
floating about Pletcher scratching.

[joanied]

I brought up Stay Thirsty because you like him, even though he is only going to have 2 preps. I don't recall him ever going eye to eye down the lane with another horses either. He's usually too far behind the leaders.

The staying power stuff is funny.

Late with this, but thought I should reply anyway...

I did like Stay Thirsty...but since his last race I have changed my mind...he just isn't fast enough and if they do run him in the derby, I think he'll get lost in the field...I beleive this colt hasn't got much courage, like UM, he isn't battle tested, so he's dropped down on my Derby list...
I still hold to my opinion that all the Derby horses going in off two starts this year are at a great disadvantage...yeah, that's the way they train them now...but that don't make it the right way...unless it's a trainer like Baffert that when he works a horse, he really works him!!

Don't know why staying power is funny...guess you don't pay attention to pedigrees...if you compare Stay Thirsty's to UM's, you would see there is a lot of stamina in ST, and not much at all in UM's...just a fact I consider.

[Dahoss9698]

Don't know why staying power is funny...guess you don't pay attention to pedigrees...if you compare Stay Thirsty's to UM's, you would see there is a lot of stamina in ST, and not much at all in UM's...just a fact I consider.

Spot on as usual. A fact you consider in what?

[nijinski]

Looking at the whole picture , theer hasn't been any horse as outstanding as Mo in this years candidates. We'll have to see about distance limitations.
Churchill is a plus for him and we'll see in the coming weeks if he progresses
from whatever has set him back.

[Tom]

Mo was impressive LAST year, not this year.

[sonnyp]

Mo was impressive LAST year, not this year.

he was sprinting and running one turn races last year

also, going from 2 yo to 3 yo is a big, big jump for most "early" developers

[joanied]

Spot on as usual. A fact you consider in what?

In considering my Derby horses, in considering horses I pick to win a big race.

[Pell Mell]

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2011/04/arkansas-derby-looms-as-extraordinarily.html

check the comments...rumor that MO had surgery...is it possible?

[toussaud]

interesting.

iN excess line is not extremely durable. would not shock me.

i always said, he wouldn't make it to the derby,. i wasn't as concerned about his distance limitations as much as i was him just holding up

[sonnyp]

it's hard to believe they could have kept a surgery this quiet but all those lead changes sure seem to point to something not being right.

he's really got a "hard" way of going and i mentioned earlier i was surprised at how much he "runs down" in front as to the condition of his bandages after the wood.

that shaved patch in the pictures is not related to a surgical procedure, but he's had some kind of vet work, possibly an injection on that right fore.

they seem committed to the derby, but so was the horse that won the wood and scratched on derby morning. what was his name ?

[Pell Mell]

I think it was I WANT REVENGE...and the horse that ran 2nd to him in the wood didn't run a lick in the derby.

[cj]

they seem committed to the derby, but so was the horse that won the wood and scratched on derby morning. what was his name ?

Buddha, my favorite Derby EVAH!

[toussaud]

it's hard to believe they could have kept a surgery this quiet but all those lead changes sure seem to point to something not being right.

he's really got a "hard" way of going and i mentioned earlier i was surprised at how much he "runs down" in front as to the condition of his bandages after the wood.

that shaved patch in the pictures is not related to a surgical procedure, but he's had some kind of vet work, possibly an injection on that right fore.

they seem committed to the derby, but so was the horse that won the wood and scratched on derby morning. what was his name ?correct me if i am wrong but isn't that referred to running downhilll versus horses that run uphill?

[Robert Fischer]

http://blog-beb.thoroughbredtimes.com/2011/04/arkansas-derby-looms-as-extraordinarily.html

check the comments...rumor that MO had surgery...is it possible?

It's possible that he was scoped.

I'm not really looking for any drastic changes or events from two to three. The stuff that I noticed as a high probability of meaningful information would have occurred between his foaling and the middle of his two year old season. probably before he was two.

There were some specific things and some general course of events that coupled with those specific things that registered him to my vulture list. This list is exactly what it sounds like.

It was just extremely unfortunate that he couldn't take care of business and carry all of his popularity into the bigger three year old races. If I knew for certain that 'MO had surgery to scope a knee, I wouldn't put a high probability that it made any difference in the Wood. The highest probability assuming that he was in fact scoped is that it slightly enhanced his performance in the Wood.

The tendency in these types of situations, where there isn't an accurate insight into the horse previously, is to get excited and "draw conclusions" in reaction to events that were not anticipated.

[letswastemoney]

People are becoming hysterical off one loss, just like they overhyped his ability to stay undefeated before the race. Horses lose sometimes!!! He didn't lose by much.

I thought the rule of thumb was...3rd start off the bench is generally a horse's best effort. Let's wait for the 3rd start before jumping to conclusions.

It feels like an all or nothing fanbase in horse racing these days.

[Pell Mell]

People are becoming hysterical off one loss, just like they overhyped his ability to stay undefeated before the race. Horses lose sometimes!!! He didn't lose by much.

I thought the rule of thumb was...3rd start off the bench is generally a horse's best effort. Let's wait for the 3rd start before jumping to conclusions.

It feels like an all or nothing fanbase in horse racing these days.

Your right. It's a "What have you done lately" mentality. Every week a different horse wins one of the preps and immediately jumps way up on all the derby lists. The only way for a horse to stay up there on the list is to win and then not run again.

[Valuist]

First off, its not just "coming off one loss". He lost at odds of 1-9. And before that he was very underwhelming in beating a pathetically overmatched field. I love how the media was trying to spin Rattlesnake Bridge as being some kind of racehorse. RB shouldn't even have broken his maiden; race just fell apart late.

Uncle Mo? Great 2 year old. But so what? That has NOTHING to do with how he will project to run in the Derby. He has run two races as a 3 year old now and has shown ZERO improvement over his 2 year old form. He really has shown nothing. Bottom line; don't attached to particular horses. If you own them, then fine. Its not if one strictly is a bettor.

[joanied]

Someone mentioned Mo wasn't badly beaten in the Wood...it's not that he finished a close up 3rd, it's the way he looked in deep stretch...we've all seen horses in that position do at least a little digging in and fight back somewhat...to me, the horse just kinda gave up...maybe he was a short horse and simply couldn't give anymore...I guess we'll see on Derby day, and before that, how his works look.

It seems to be true, that he had surgery over the winter...and he's for sure had something else done, close enough to the Wood so that his hair on that shaved patch didn't grow back...
I'll have to agree that Pletcher should have made it known that the colt had surgery...he could have down played it, but still it should be public knowledge...at least then, folks who have bet the horse, and his fans would know the entire story and make allowances for it.

He was never one of my top derby picks, but I think it's an injustice not to come clean about his soundess issues, hence his light training scheduel. And for the sake of a really great owner, I do hope Mo gets back to 'form' and wins his fair share of races this year, especailly because Repole said he'd keep him in training for a 4 yr. old campaign....no doubt the colt is talented and can run.

[PaceAdvantage]

It seems to be true, that he had surgery over the winter...and he's for sure had something else done, close enough to the Wood so that his hair on that shaved patch didn't grow back...
I'll have to agree that Pletcher should have made it known that the colt had surgery...I've been behind on the news this week. Where did you read about this surgery you say "it seems to be true" he had?

Is it true or not?

[PhantomOnTour]

I've been behind on the news this week. Where did you read about this surgery you say "it seems to be true" he had?

Is it true or not?
Read all of page 14 in this thread, esp post #202...click the link.

[sonnyp]

correct me if i am wrong but isn't that referred to running downhilll versus horses that run uphill?


im not familiar with the terms uphill and downhill as they may relate here.

can you elaborate ?

[toussaud]

nevermind, i know what it means. it's a confirmation thing not a running thing

[joanied]

I've been behind on the news this week. Where did you read about this surgery you say "it seems to be true" he had?

Is it true or not?

As Pahntom On Tour said...read the page/thread...Pell Mell put up a link to the story with the info...
sorry, I screwed up your chance to tell me not to post rumors:p :D

[PaceAdvantage]

sorry, I screwed up your chance to tell me not to post rumors:p :DHappened one time...let it go....

[PaceAdvantage]

Read all of page 14 in this thread, esp post #202...click the link.I did read the thread, that's why when joanied posted that "it seems to be true," I thought something more concrete had been revealed. Obviously, I shouldn't have assumed such a thing considering...

Some ANONYMOUS guy posts something on some blog and now "IT SEEMS TO BE TRUE." Are you kidding me?

It doesn't SEEM to be anything of the sort, not to this observer.

It MIGHT be true, but then again, it might rain money from the sky tomorrow...I have about the same amount of information to go on for each scenario.

And quite frankly, one didn't need to know he had surgery to see he wasn't the same horse based on his comeback race this year. It was the worst race of his career, and was a clear signal that something wasn't the same...not often you get to bet against 1/9 shots in a full field with that kind of glaring deficiency.

[Tom]

...not often you get to bet against 1/9 shots in a full field with that kind of glaring deficiency.

Yeah, and you left us all crumbs for odds. Next time, save us a point or two before you crush the pools like that! :mad:


:lol::lol:

[Dahoss9698]

I did read the thread, that's why when joanied posted that "it seems to be true," I thought something more concrete had been revealed. Obviously, I shouldn't have assumed such a thing considering...

Some ANONYMOUS guy posts something on some blog and now "IT SEEMS TO BE TRUE." Are you kidding me?

It doesn't SEEM to be anything of the sort, not to this observer.

It MIGHT be true, but then again, it might rain money from the sky tomorrow...I have about the same amount of information to go on for each scenario.

And quite frankly, one didn't need to know he had surgery to see he wasn't the same horse based on his comeback race this year. It was the worst race of his career, and was a clear signal that something wasn't the same...not often you get to bet against 1/9 shots in a full field with that kind of glaring deficiency.

Come on. It was in the comments section of a blog. It has to be true. It's not like blogs ever have a problem with people posting things that aren't true. Oh wait...

[Jasonm921]

This comment was found under the article stating that Mo may stay in Florida. The article was written on March 12 and the comment below was written on March 13.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2011/03/12/another-audible-for-uncle-mo.aspx

"Crawling first 3/4 and closed well against nothing. Not impressed when his classmates have already gone 8.5 & 9 furlongs.

Still would like some explanation of what was on Uncle Mo's right front cannon in the photo of his work with Stay Thirsty. Shaved patch with what looked like sutures or some damage to the skin.He could have done the same working 8 furlongs. Taking this soft route to the KY Derby. Very NOT impressed."

author---Lmaris 13 Mar 2011 2:13 PM

[classhandicapper]

And quite frankly, one didn't need to know he had surgery to see he wasn't the same horse based on his comeback race this year. It was the worst race of his career, and was a clear signal that something wasn't the same

I'm surprised you are so confident that anyone could determine where his form was after that first race.

IMO, if Seattle Slew was at the height of his powers and he was rated to run the same first 6 furlongs, then asked to run a little through the stretch, then wrapped up to win handily late, he wouldn't have earned that much of a better speed figure than Mo.

For Mo to have run his customary speed figure that day he would have had to run his last quarter in 21 4/5 handily after running 6 furlongs. Not likely.

The problem is that lots of horses with less than spectacular talent can come home in 22 4/5 after such a slow pace. The runner up came home in 23 2/5 and he was a maiden graduate that didn't even look very fast going into it.

When faced with this scenario, IMO there is simply no way to know how much stamina a horse had in reserve so you can calculate how fast he would have run with a faster pace.

All that said, you made a brilliant bet. :ThmbUp:

I wish I was that smart and courageous. :bang:

He was bet like it was 100% certain that he was still the same horse and 100% fit. There was no proof that was the case from his first race and we know how many horses come back either short or not the same the following year.

If anything, there was evidence from several other high quality runners from Pletcher's barn in Florida that some of his best horses were coming back off their layoffs as short horses.

So I congratulate you on a great bet, but I still think it was impossible to know beforehand how sharp he was based on the speed figure he earned with that bogus pace scenario.

[PaceAdvantage]

But even with the bogus pace scenario, the number was just so far below anything he had ever run before, that there had to be more behind it than just pace.

Sometimes we make this game much tougher than need be...

[RXB]

I think there are a couple of factors involved. One is that he is bred most likely to be a early-maturing miler. The other is that he was effectively running in the Wood off of a five-month layoff, because his "prep race" was such a dawdling joke that it really wasn't a prep race at all, just a one-mile workout. I'd like to ask the connections what conditioning benefit they thought he'd received from that 1:13-and-change 6f in the GP race.

I was so set on taking full advantage against him at short odds in the Derby, I lost the facility to see that there was an earlier opportunity to bet against him. Oh well.

[plainolebill]

As gamblers it certainly makes more sense to take the last race at face value when the horse is going to the post at 1/9. If he's 9/1 I take the other side of the trade. I was greedy and bet a much higher odds horse than the winner.

[toussaud]

apparantly mo went from being "just fine" to having an infection

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2011/04/14/pletcher-uncle-mo-has-infection-but-derby-remains-the-plan/

but still on track for the derby

[Tom]

So he has gas???
Wow. I guess it is hard to run fast when you have gas.

[toussaud]

So he has gas???
Wow. I guess it is hard to run fast when you have gas.
see, he wasn't fading, he was just being polite and didn't want to poot in the horses faces. such good manners that mo has.

[classhandicapper]

But even with the bogus pace scenario, the number was just so far below anything he had ever run before, that there had to be more behind it than just pace.


In order to be certain of that, you had to think he should have been able to close faster than 22 4/5 handily after running 6F with a middle of around 48. There's no other way he could have run a faster figure unless the jockey asked for more earlier (which he didn't).

That's the fundamental problem with figures (pace).

This may have been an extremely fluky pace for a dirt race, but it's not that uncommon on turf and synthetic. When it happens, final times can be preposterously slow relative to the ability of the horses. Beyer and other figures makers often take liberties with the figures they assign in these scenarios (that handicappers don't even know about), but it's not that unusual.

Typically this kind of thing will only impact the final time of closers who are stuck way behind a moderately slow pace. But if it's extreme enough and it lasts until the top of the stretch, even the front runners can only close so fast.

[joanied]

see, he wasn't fading, he was just being polite and didn't want to poot in the horses faces. such good manners that mo has.

:lol: made me laugh!!

Maybe Pletcher needs to draw blood on his horses before they race...as in Uncle Mo and Life At Ten!!

He also says he will not discuss any thing with Uncle Mo (or any of his horses) with anyone but the owners...so IMO, keeping surgeries secret is what he does...and for the handicappers, seems to me that is info you'd want to know....after all, it usually does make a difference in a horses performance when he/she comes back.
he sure has been keeping that shaved patch below Mo's knee a secret...although he must realize that everyone has seen it...

[RXB]

I love Pletcher's quote about Uncle Mo's "dominant performance in the Timely Writer Stakes..."

The horse sauntered along for the first half mile at a rate that wouldn't have been fast for the cheapest maiden claiming 3YO fillies on the grounds.

[PaceAdvantage]

In order to be certain of that, you had to think he should have been able to close faster than 22 4/5 handily after running 6F with a middle of around 48. There's no other way he could have run a faster figure unless the jockey asked for more earlier (which he didn't).

That's the fundamental problem with figures (pace).

This may have been an extremely fluky pace for a dirt race, but it's not that uncommon on turf and synthetic. When it happens, final times can be preposterously slow relative to the ability of the horses. Beyer and other figures makers often take liberties with the figures they assign in these scenarios (that handicappers don't even know about), but it's not that unusual.

Typically this kind of thing will only impact the final time of closers who are stuck way behind a moderately slow pace. But if it's extreme enough and it lasts until the top of the stretch, even the front runners can only close so fast.As I've stated before however, the figure I was referring to was not a strict speed figure. It was a performance figure, which gave me even more confidence that something was up other than just an aberrant pace scenario.

[joanied]

I love Pletcher's quote about Uncle Mo's "dominant performance in the Timely Writer Stakes..."

The horse sauntered along for the first half mile at a rate that wouldn't have been fast for the cheapest maiden claiming 3YO fillies on the grounds.

He must think everyone is stupid or something...and what did he run against that day...here we go folks...I'm bringing it back...tomato cans:lol:

[Tom]

Dominant performance....is that like Life at Ten's Stellar stretch drive?
This guy should host SNL.

[toussaud]

Dominant performance....is that like Life at Ten's Stellar stretch drive?
This guy should host SNL.
sadly he'd be the funniest guy there

[KingChas]

"Pletcher said Uncle Mo can continue to train while the infection is being treated and that the Kentucky Derby remains in the plans, though he added the caveat that if he’s not “100 percent” he will not run." :liar:

Isn't this the guy talking who trains LAT?

"Pletcher only noticed that she was quiet in the paddock.
That is NOT his fault." :liar:

Uncle Mo will run in the Derby................ ;)

[Tom]

Uncle Mo will run in the Derby................ images/UBGX/E5.gif

And if he can't run, he will walk!

[classhandicapper]

As I've stated before however, the figure I was referring to was not a strict speed figure. It was a performance figure, which gave me even more confidence that something was up other than just an aberrant pace scenario.

I realize that CJ calculates performance figures that attempt to adjust for pace, but IMO there is no way to adjust for extremely slow paces in a one size fits all way. (I am a long time customer because he makes such good figures)

In this case, CJ adjusted his performance figure DOWN a few points because he was a speed horse that got away with a slow pace. That kind of thing might be true 90% of the time, but X% of the time you are dealing with an extremely slow pace and a very talented horse. Then the generalities break down.

It's a complicated issue with no answers.

I feel like an idiot saying this stuff though because you're the one that cashed the ticket. :lol: It was probably smarter to simply bet against him even though some of these will bite you in the ass and run a big figure when they get a normal pace.

[maddog42]

In order to be certain of that, you had to think he should have been able to close faster than 22 4/5 handily after running 6F with a middle of around 48. There's no other way he could have run a faster figure unless the jockey asked for more earlier (which he didn't).

That's the fundamental problem with figures (pace).

This may have been an extremely fluky pace for a dirt race, but it's not that uncommon on turf and synthetic. When it happens, final times can be preposterously slow relative to the ability of the horses. Beyer and other figures makers often take liberties with the figures they assign in these scenarios (that handicappers don't even know about), but it's not that unusual.

Typically this kind of thing will only impact the final time of closers who are stuck way behind a moderately slow pace. But if it's extreme enough and it lasts until the top of the stretch, even the front runners can only close so fast.

I compute ppf numbers ala Pizzolla and many others. This is a bastardized 3rd fraction where a horse is penalized in his 3rd fraction by whatever lengths he was behind at the second call. I have been making ppf pars for the last year. I am the only person I know of that does this. In the past year I have never seen another horse run a 22.87 on the lead in a race on dirt except for
Mo. His Percentage of Par was even more telling since it was the lowest on Dirt I have recorded. I was very surprised by his loss and took a lot of ribbing from my friends. I believe there was something wrong with Mo. I don't know if Mo can handle a 1 1/4 mile. That is a whole other problem. But I don't think a 1 1/8 will bother him at all.

[RXB]

The point is that a great percentage of par or whatever is usually not a positive in dirt racing because it is set up by a crawling early pace. On the dirt I'll take a frontrunning par pace figure plus a par final fraction almost anytime over a slow pace plus a fast final fraction for a frontrunner. And in Uncle Mo's "race" at GP, the first few furlongs were ridiculously slow, thus it was easy to unleash a burst for the last two furlongs.

[turninforhome10]

Any one else see thehttp://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/does-racing-need-mo-disclosure/ about disclosure and Uncle MO. Pin fired on the left and probably a knee on the right. Remember both his sire Indian Charlie and grandsire In Excess had knee problems. While I think MO is better than Indian Charlie by record the stories are similar. Watching him run in the Wood he was short down the lane. How can you train a 3yo to get them as fit as need be without pressing them a little. This explains to me why Pletcher is being so gaurded with his prodigal son.

[sonnyp]

Any one else see thehttp://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/does-racing-need-mo-disclosure/ about disclosure and Uncle MO. Pin fired on the left and probably a knee on the right. Remember both his sire Indian Charlie and grandsire In Excess had knee problems. While I think MO is better than Indian Charlie by record the stories are similar. Watching him run in the Wood he was short down the lane. How can you train a 3yo to get them as fit as need be without pressing them a little. This explains to me why Pletcher is being so gaurded with his prodigal son.


that picture shows scars from pinfiring without a doubt. that would have been done shortly after he finished last season. it's a severe, but effective approach to sore or bucked shins.

again, as i stated earlier, the shaved area looks to be related to a splint. only they know if it was done for diagnostics or/and injection.

he probably was short for the wood as he gave it up quickly, but don't forget the numerous lead changes during the running which would indicate something else is going on.

im sure his next few works will be closely scrutinized, but i'm pretty sure you can use bute etc. to work a horse.

[classhandicapper]

The point is that a great percentage of par or whatever is usually not a positive in dirt racing because it is set up by a crawling early pace. On the dirt I'll take a frontrunning par pace figure plus a par final fraction almost anytime over a slow pace plus a fast final fraction for a frontrunner. And in Uncle Mo's "race" at GP, the first few furlongs were ridiculously slow, thus it was easy to unleash a burst for the last two furlongs.

The problem is what I've been describing in this and other threads.

When a pace is extremely slow, a lot of horses have the speed to come home really fast for 2 furlongs while still fresh as you describe. However, there are legitimate superhorses that can find themselves in a similar position. In some case they don't have the natural speed to come much or any faster that some run of the mill horses can.

So there is not way to tell off raw closing times how much reserve stamina and ability a horse has. You gave to wait until it is tested under tougher conditions.

That's why IMO the best approach is to look back races and to see how well the horse went out after the finish for clues as to how good the horse might be. If the horse has fast back races under tough conditions, it will usually come back to that level when put in more average conditions.

That wasn't such a great approach with Mo because his good form came as a 2YO and he was laid off for a long time. So there was not certainty that his form was stable.

[Tom]

Looks to me like his BC wins was the fluke race.
I don't recall too many ever running a big one like that and then showing so little repeatedly. Those he beat that day don't seem to be any great shakes.

[PaceAdvantage]

He hasn't been the same in 2011. The numbers clearly point this out.

[Robert Goren]

He is certainly being trained like a horse with health issues. If he runs, it will be without my money.

[toussaud]

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/2011/04/24/pletcher-on-mo-ive-lost-no-confidence-in-his-ability/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+courier-journal%2FddIR+%28Horse+Racing+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader


well that clears all that up

[Tom]

Trainer-speak for "WTF do I do now?"

[turninforhome10]

Either this is an ulcer or inflammatory bowel disease. I work as a lab tech and used to train thoroughbreds so I do not want to talk with my ego and lead anyone astray. Theorize with me for moment. If it is ulcers Mo would be on Gastrogard and probably a feed additive so unless something really got him worked up, I would not understand the degradation of the condition. If on the other hand he would have an immune situation that was causing the GI tract to be inflamed this would lead to a more dire circumstance such as IBD or other absorption maladies. Control would be through steroids. Could he be treated with anti inflammatory medication before the Derby No.