Arkansas Derby 4/16

[Bruddah]

This is my list for probables for the Arkansas Derby. Does anyone have any information on these, or those I may have omitted?

1. Archarcharch
2. Astrology
3. Bretheren
4. Caleb's Posse
5. Elite Alex
6. J P's Gusto
7. Nehro
8. Saratoga Red
9. Sway Away
10. The Factor
11. Truman's Commander

[Striker]

Alternation is a probable starter I think. Blinkers are going on for Elite Alex.

[toussaud]

pval is the new rider on sway away.

[Shelby]

I like Saratoga Red. :)

[joanied]

pval is the new rider on sway away.

OHWOW...I like that...absolutley love PVal, and I'm so happy he's proved so many wrong by not only staying clean and sober, but riding like the devil...he'll move up Sway Away, no doubt about it:ThmbUp: ...
me thinks The Factor will have company out of the gate...Elite Alex's bullet and blinkers make me think he's gonna come out like gangbusters...this one is going to be a great race:jump:

[canleakid]

Maximum field size is 14. Expected to start as of Monday were Archarcharch, Caleb’s Posse, Elite Alex, J P’s Gusto, J W Blue, Nehro, Saratoga Red, Sway Away,The Factor,Alternation,Brethren,Dance City & Truman's Commander

1 spot still open :confused:

[Tom]

Zito training Truman now.

[Cardus]

OHWOW...I like that...absolutley love PVal, and I'm so happy he's proved so many wrong by not only staying clean and sober, but riding like the devil...he'll move up Sway Away, no doubt about it:ThmbUp: ...
me thinks The Factor will have company out of the gate...Elite Alex's bullet and blinkers make me think he's gonna come out like gangbusters...this one is going to be a great race:jump:

The fools! The fools to think that a man who was suspended about eight times in the 1990s for drug infractions, for nearly two years again in 2000, and had his license suspended yet again in 2006 and 2007, was going to stay sober enough to ride.

The man who shaved all of his hair - didn't he? -- to avoid a follicle test: everyone who doubted him was wrong to believe that he was going to stay "clean and sober."

I was comfortable doubting that he would stay clear of the stewards.

The highlighted portion above is rubbish, if for no other reason that it was not unreasonable to form an opinion of his future based upon his lengthy, systemic, failure to stay "clean and sober."

[Cardus]

One of my favorite racing lines comes from a friend of mine about PVal: "He could get an elephant out of the gate faster than most jockeys can get horses out."

He was a sensational talent.

[toetoe]

I'm not an incorrigible Gomez apologist, but Sway Away will underperform again. He showed so little speed that not even PVal will be able to gatebust with this colt. One race was enough for me to fall right through the other side of this colt's bandwagon. Bonde will be chugging salty beers. :(

[Sekrah]

Very interested in ArchArchArch and Elite Alex in this one. Outside of The Factor they are the only two who interest me as potential Derby party crashers.

Another is Astrology, if Asmussen decides to run him here.

[toussaud]

in 4 career races sway away

1. won his maiden
2. hooked a future grade 1 winner an d 2nd place santa anita derby winner at 7F and damn near won
3. hooked the horse with the best 2 turn beyer speed figure this year in the factor in the san vincente
4. got rilled up and lost a tooth in the rebel



sway away.. i'm not going to say he is going to win.. but he's going to run his butt off as long as nothing funky happens. keep in mind.. he's one of the few horses that has run a 100 bsf (in the san vincente, he didn't win so no one lists it, but he ran a 100 to the factor's 103.
He's actually running against real horses. There aren't many out there that are going to bet JP at 7F. Or the factor for that matter. I would take the factor at 7F against any horse in the carter and like my chances and sway away almost nabbed him.
tyoy

[Pell Mell]

in 4 career races sway away

1. won his maiden
2. hooked a future grade 1 winner an d 2nd place santa anita derby winner at 7F and damn near won
3. hooked the horse with the best 2 turn beyer speed figure this year in the factor in the san vincente
4. got rilled up and lost a tooth in the rebel



sway away.. i'm not going to say he is going to win.. but he's going to run his butt off as long as nothing funky happens. keep in mind.. he's one of the few horses that has run a 100 bsf (in the san vincente, he didn't win so no one lists it, but he ran a 100 to the factor's 103.
He's actually running against real horses. There aren't many out there that are going to bet JP at 7F. Or the factor for that matter. I would take the factor at 7F against any horse in the carter and like my chances and sway away almost nabbed him.
tyoy

You may be right but I have a different take on it.
In that race there were only 6 horses in it. There were 3 of them that tried to run with The Factor and 2 of them dropped out of it. Premier Pegasus raced in 3rd and made a bid in the stretch but got a little tired from his effort to chase down TF. Sway was running last and after everyone was cooked he was coming on. Somebody had to come at the end and who else but a horse that hadn't even gotten involved. PP came back in his next and laid back and then blew them away. Sway only passed tired horses and proved it in his next when he didn't run a lick and he will be nowhere to be found against this field. JMO

[toussaud]

You may be right but I have a different take on it.
In that race there were only 6 horses in it. There were 3 of them that tried to run with The Factor and 2 of them dropped out of it. Premier Pegasus raced in 3rd and made a bid in the stretch but got a little tired from his effort to chase down TF. Sway was running last and after everyone was cooked he was coming on. Somebody had to come at the end and who else but a horse that hadn't even gotten involved. PP came back in his next and laid back and then blew them away. Sway only passed tired horses and proved it in his next when he didn't run a lick and he will be nowhere to be found against this field. JMO
while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree on 2 points

1. he ran a 100 beyer. he was passing horses, not falling in line

2. he beat premier Pegasus.. by alot. a few lengths.

He's a horse that has been running against speed horses /sprinters, in sprint races and the race that he was supposed to show out, he lost his chance before the race started

we will see saturday

[Pell Mell]

while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree on 2 points

1. he ran a 100 beyer. he was passing horses, not falling in line

2. he beat premier Pegasus.. by alot. a few lengths.

He's a horse that has been running against speed horses /sprinters, in sprint races and the race that he was supposed to show out, he lost his chance before the race started

we will see saturday

1- Beyer means zilch to me plus closers can get carried to fast times.

2- PP was pressing a fast pace...see what he did when he layed off the pace.

Your right...we shall see...that's the beauty of horse racing ;)

[Bruddah]

Just a note for the Oaklawn meet. They have missed a historic 8 days of racing due to bad weather. However, thru this past Sunday they have had 475,818 on track attendance. An average of 10,574 daily. This week (Ark Derby) is their Racing Festival of the South, with the normal large crowds expected. The Ark Derby usually draws crowds close to 50k. (dependent on weather) With well over a half million attending the races in at town of 36k, I think it says Thoroughbred Racing is still Alive and Well in Hot Springs Ar.

[Cardus]

Oaklawn has definitely been a beacon for racing this past decade when considering fan interest. Whatever it does, however it does it, Oaklawn management has gotten people to visit the track.

[Pell Mell]

Just a note for the Oaklawn meet. They have missed a historic 8 days of racing due to bad weather. However, thru this past Sunday they have had 475,818 on track attendance. An average of 10,574 daily. This week (Ark Derby) is their Racing Festival of the South, with the normal large crowds expected. The Ark Derby usually draws crowds close to 50k. (dependent on weather) With well over a half million attending the races in at town of 36k, I think it says Thoroughbred Racing is still Alive and Well in Hot Springs Ar.

And this has been my best meet in a long time. Mostly full or near full of competitive fields. Not many 2/5 shots or super trainers to contend with.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

the sad thing is, if they moved the meet up a mo nth we would demolish all attendance records. No one I know even thinks about going to the track (execpt for the SW stakes) until rebel day and opening day. It's just too cold.

[toussaud]

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61755300@N08/5613980646/in/photostream

[Bruddah]

the sad thing is, if they moved the meet up a mo nth we would demolish all attendance records. No one I know even thinks about going to the track (execpt for the SW stakes) until rebel day and opening day. It's just too cold.

The meet is scheduled to meet the needs of trainers and their stock for early in the racing year. It allows them to condition and point 3yo prospects toward the Triple Crown series, especially the Ky Derby the first Saturday in May. Oaklawn has scheduled their 3yo races (Southwest GIII, Rebel GII, and Ark. Derby GI) to be perfect stepping stones to the Ky Derby.

Nothing wrong with the schedule. It may not suit all or Mother Nature all the time, but you can't argue with their success. Especially the success of the last 20 years or so.

[toussaud]

The meet is scheduled to meet the needs of trainers and their stock for early in the racing year. It allows them to condition and point 3yo prospects toward the Triple Crown series, especially the Ky Derby the first Saturday in May. Oaklawn has scheduled their 3yo races (Southwest GIII, Rebel GII, and Ark. Derby GI) to be perfect stepping stones to the Ky Derby.

Nothing wrong with the schedule. It may not suit all or Mother Nature all the time, but you can't argue with their success. Especially the success of the last 20 years or so.
in a perfect world (for me at least, right now lol), they would cancel ellis park and the horses would come back for a summer meet. summer in hot springs would be heaven.

[Sekrah]

Sweet. Found 45-1 on ArchArchArch for the Derby on an offshore.

[redshift1]

Purse: $1 million; 1 1/8 miles; Grade 1
1. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 5-1
2. Elite Alex, Calvin Borel, 8-1
3. The Factor, Martin Garcia, 7-5
4. Brethren, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
5. Sway Away, Patrick Valenzuela, 6-1
6. Caleb’s Posse, Eddie Razo, 10-1
7. Truman’s Commander, Israel Ocampo, 30-1
8. Alternation, Luis Quinonez, 10-1
9. Dance City, Javier Castellano, 15-1
10. Archarcharch, Jon Court, 12-1
11. J P’s Gusto, Cliff Berry, 15-1
12. J W Blue, Joe Rocco Jr., 30-1
13. Saratoga Red, Terry Thompson, 30-1

[Longshot]

Arkansas Derby

Alternation and Caleb’s Posse, who are both trained by Donnie Von Hemel, will start as a coupled entry.

Purse: $1 million; 1 1/8 miles; Grade 1

(2) 1. Nehro, Corey Nakatani, 5-1
(3) 2. Elite Alex, Calvin Borel, 8-1
(4) 3. The Factor, Martin Garcia, 7-5
(5) 4. Brethren, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
(6) 5. Sway Away, Patrick Valenzuela, 6-1
(1) 6. Caleb’s Posse, Eddie Razo, 10-1
(7) 7. Truman’s Commander, Israel Ocampo, 30-1
(1A) 8. Alternation, Luis Quinonez, 10-1
(8) 9. Dance City, Javier Castellano, 15-1
(9) 10. Archarcharch, Jon Court, 12-1
(10) 11. J P’s Gusto, Cliff Berry, 15-1
(11) 12. J W Blue, Joe Rocco Jr., 30-1
(12) 13. Saratoga Red, Terry Thompson, 30-1

[Marlin]

An entry in a million dollar race? How prehistoric.

[woodtoo]

My friend likes the Factor, alot.

My other friend says Nehru.

[MNslappy]

Gayego.
Line of David.
Papa Clem.

I'd say if you've got an E or an EP shipping in from California, you've got a pretty good shot to win this race.

[Sekrah]

I'll be constructing some trifecta/supers around Archarcharch and Elite Alex.

Nehro and The Factor are very vulnerable here.

This has bombs-away written all over it. JP's Gusto has been ripping up the track and his development has been a long time coming. And you must respect any horse with Pletcher/Castellano involved (Dance City). That horse showed some crazy speed at Gulfstream at 1 1/8 in January. If they can harness that, he's a contender.

[sam i am]

I liked him at 5/2...love him at 6-1. one more chance Sway away....

[toussaud]

yeah i'm all in on sway away. if he loses this race, or doesn't run well i'm done

[Bruddah]

I liked him at 5/2...love him at 6-1. one more chance Sway away....

I agree with your pick, he's mine as well. He cleans it up in the stretch. I don't like the switch to PVAL but I'm hoping this pinhead doesn't muck it up.

Sway Away going away! :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

Not only that you can see the Pre derby, Pval NBC tear jerker story now.

[Bruddah]

Not only that you can see the Pre derby, Pval NBC tear jerker story now.


Spot on! This will make about the 6th or 7th time that tear jerker will have been forced on racing fans. Getting mighty old! :ThmbDown:

I suppose we now have to give the winning horses and jockey's a p*ss test after the race. (lol)

[toussaud]

Spot on! This will make about the 6th or 7th time that tear jerker will have been forced on racing fans. Getting mighty old! :ThmbDown:

I suppose we now have to give the winning horses and jockey's a p*ss test after the race. (lol)
It's sad when you can pull the same footage out the volt from a decade ago and it's still revelant. just voice over the derby horse's name and you are good to go

but he has gotten his act together so I'm not going to rag on the man. He's riding like a mad man right now

[GaryG]

Patrick is a very likeable guy and he takes the time to schmooze the owners. I got to know him slightly in an Arcadia business deal in the 80s. I sincerely hope that he has it together this time.

[Bruddah]

My Ark Derby bets:

$100 to win-plc Alternation
$100 to win-plc Sway Away
$50 exacta box Alternation and Sway Away
Total bets $500

Great card Saturday at Oaklawn = $1,518,800 in purse money.

[Pell Mell]

This looks to be a very deep and competitive field. I think there will be a lot of luck involved because the post positions are going to play a big part. Getting race position will be the key.

I finally came down to 2 horses and it sure ain't Sway Away the sprinter. ;)

[Bruddah]

You must have looked at another horse's PP. Sway Away is a closer.

[GaryG]

Nehro is still developing and he should get a good setup. The price will be right for sure.

[Pell Mell]

You must have looked at another horse's PP. Sway Away is a closer.

He's a closer in a sprint, and sprints with only 5 or 6 horses and he catches the dead horses.

[toussaud]

This looks to be a very deep and competitive field. I think there will be a lot of luck involved because the post positions are going to play a big part. Getting race position will be the key.

I finally came down to 2 horses and it sure ain't Sway Away the sprinter. ;)
illogical fallacy

just because the horse has ran best in sprint races, doesn't mean he's a sprinter. That's bad and money losing logic there and lazy handicapping.

Note, I did not attack your premise that he is catching dead horses. You can make a case for that. (just forget the fact that "tired horses" he was passing include comma to the top in the best pal and Premire Pegasus in the San Felipe, both graded stakes winners at 2 turns) I don't buy it at all but you can logically make that case. I get it. But not that he's a sprinter.

he might not win, but it won't be because he's a sprinter.. Afleet alex out of a Seattle slew mare, if that's not a 2 turn pedigree I don't know what is. Heck his pedigree is the sole reason I was so high on him last year.

He is a horse that has been tackling really go;od horses, and had a crappy trip and a legit excuse last race.

[Bruddah]

He's a closer in a sprint, and sprints with only 5 or 6 horses and he catches the dead horses.

So, your point is, he's a "closing" sprinter and unable to get 9 furlongs? Obviously, his trainer disagrees with your analysis. Look, I don't want to be argumenative when it comes to "developing" 3 yo's. They will make idiots out of all of us. The Factor should have more pressure on the front end in this race. additionally, he will need to carry his speed a 1/16th further. Those factors makes this a scenario for a closer. (JMHHO)

Good luck with your bets Saturday. :ThmbUp:

[Pell Mell]

So, your point is, he's a "closing" sprinter and unable to get 9 furlongs? Obviously, his trainer disagrees with your analysis. Look, I don't want to be argumenative when it comes to "developing" 3 yo's. They will make idiots out of all of us. The Factor should have more pressure on the front end in this race. additionally, he will need to carry his speed a 1/16th further. Those factors makes this a scenario for a closer. (JMHHO)

Good luck with your bets Saturday. :ThmbUp:

Well, so far this year it looks like we've all been at the mercy of the 3 yr old racing gods. It ain't been often that many of us are right but it's fun to discuss them and give our opinions, otherwise it wouldn't be horse racing.

Do you really think there's anyone in there that can pressure The Factor? I really hope so because I'd like to beat him but I think it's wishful thinking.

[Bruddah]

Well, so far this year it looks like we've all been at the mercy of the 3 yr old racing gods. It ain't been often that many of us are right but it's fun to discuss them and give our opinions, otherwise it wouldn't be horse racing.

Do you really think there's anyone in there that can pressure The Factor? I really hope so because I'd like to beat him but I think it's wishful thinking.

Look at the internal times for Dance City at GP. Not only can he equal the Factor in splits, he has carried those internal splits on an off track (variant 26) for 9 furlongs. I beleve, Dance City can keep the pressure on the Factor all the way.

The real key to Saturday race is how will the track play in the distance races, leading up to the Ark Derby. Will (closers & stalkers) fare well in the distance races?

Handicapping is trying to put the pieces together before the race. There is no better feeling than when you get it right. Conversley, no worse feeling than when you are all wrong. Have a good betting day tomorrow. :ThmbUp:

[Shelby]

Well, it was a fun day of racing today! Cold, but fun. The Apple Blossom was great to watch--not to bet, just to cheer. I was sure hoping that Belle Whatling would do better. I think they need to drop her down a few classes and let her get her "win" back.

I'm going to go get dinner and bring it back to the room and handicap, handicap handicap.

[toussaud]

there is a little taco stand right before you hit the freeway. best tacos i have ever had in my life.

[PhantomOnTour]

Nehro is still developing and he should get a good setup. The price will be right for sure.
I'm with you on this pick, but his 5-1 ML is not what I wanted. I don't expect him to go off at that price (i really want about 9-1).
Deep closing style to break his maiden (behind a moderate pace) and a stalking style (off a pretty good pace) to just miss in a Gr2 in first try vs winners while improving his figs at every call.
The rail is his...sit chilly within striking distance and hope The Factor comes back. His front end trip will not be as cozy this time.

[plainolebill]

I'm not sure any of these horses are quick enough to put pressure on The Factor but I'll be taking a shot at him anyhow.

I like Alternation a little - this colt has great breeding, beat a field of older horses in his last. His first work after that race was a bullet 59.8, 7 weeks rest off a top - I'd like to see =>12/1. W/P

Saratoga Red may improve, he was closest to the pace and didn't run badly in the Rebel - the fastest prep to this point - only his second start. W/P

[Dark Bay]

The way I see it Sway Away will be forwardly placed, within a couple lengths of the leader. It's a guess but,

1. Rank in Rebel probably from dirt to face.
2. Adds blinkers
3. P Val

Any one of the three could signal improved early pace. All three, the probability is high.

Don't love his chances. The changes seem desperate but he's not short on ability.

[toussaud]

Did arron V just pick JP's Gusto? am I missing something

[PhantomOnTour]

Did arron V just pick JP's Gusto? am I missing something
We've got the PAIHL.
TVG and HRTV should have a friendly capping tourney btw their hosts.
Vercruysee vs Carruthers would be entertaining and non-profitable. :ThmbUp:

By the way, I don't think you are missing something, Aaron is.

[MNslappy]

The Factor solidifies himself as the Derby favorite and the collective horse racing world at large finally realizes it's been following the wrong superstar horse all spring.

The Factor
Elite Alex
Archarcharch

[Sekrah]

Moving Nehro up in my rankings based on the fact Corey Nakatani is bitchslapping every other jockey in the park right now

[toussaud]

Moving Nehro up in my rankings based on the fact Corey Nakatani is bitchslapping every other jockey in the park right now
rotfl

[delsully]

Anyone know where I can get a free pp?

[redshift1]

Anyone know where I can get a free pp?


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/videos/watch/9A651027-799A-429E-AC92-188E439E51EC

[toussaud]

attendance is 62, 354. that's what i am talking about

[Jasonm921]

attendance is 62, 354. that's what i am talking about

WOW...great job for all the fans that showed up.

[plainolebill]

Bombs away - :1: , :9: , :12:

[Jasonm921]

Does any one know how much Lapenta paid for this horse in the Arkansas Derby? It intrigues me that he has Dialed In and went out bought this horse to try to steal this race to get to the Derby.

[toussaud]

how the heck is nehro 11 to 1 and elite alex is 5 to 1 lol? makes no sense at all.



now watch elite alex win by 5

[gm10]

I can't take this price on The Factor. Small bet on Sway Away. 1/1A worth a small bet, too. 1A is improving.

[PaceAdvantage]

I can't get past The Factor. Unlike when I picked against Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, it appears none of the other speeds can run with The Factor early, plus he has the fourth best late number, and should be so far ahead of those with better late numbers, that he will be impossible to catch.

I have him at 3-5 on my line.

I'm going to watch and enjoy what I feel will be an impressive run.

[Jasonm921]

Five horse Superfecta box.
The Factor
Zito's horse
Sway away
Dance city
Arch arch arch

12 bucks for 10 cents

[judd]

8 dance city w-p-s

[Jasonm921]

A Quality Road moment.

[toussaud]

scratch!

my freaking god guys come on.

[Jasonm921]

They're in

[PaceAdvantage]

I hope The Factor doesn't fall asleep waiting for the race to start.

[PaceAdvantage]

That was a surprising beginning....love the pregnant pauses in the race call

[cj]

The race is only half over and this is already the worst call I've ever heard.

[PaceAdvantage]

This is not the year for favorites... :lol:

[toussaud]

archarcharch wins

damnit i thought sway away had it when they hit the stretch

[judd]

what a terrible announcer :D :p :cool: :mad: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm watching on a fuzzy twinspires feed...and given Terry Wallace's horrendous call, I can't be confident on who crossed the wire first...

[GatetoWire]

What terrible race call!!!
Started bad and only got worse.
Retire already!!!
That was an embarrassment.

[Casino]

I'm watching on a fuzzy twinspires feed...and given Terry Wallace's horrendous call, I can't be confident on who crossed the wire first...

As LArry The Cable would say " i dont care who you are thats funny"

[Tom]

Uncle NO
NO Factor.......what a crop we have this year!
Make the Derby an Optional Claimer and maybe get a good horse or two in it! :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, this is one time I wish I didn't take the projected race shape into account. I had the winner at 12-1 on my line, but threw him out because I thought there was no getting past The Factor's early pace advantage and strong relative late numbers.

Damn.

[toussaud]

i would not discount the factor off this. martin got taken to school.

the factor HAS to have the lead. when eh doesn't get the lead he folds. look at his first race of his career.

[Jasonm921]

Toussaud maybe correct. might be a Holy Bull moment where he just didn't run a lick for whatever reason.

I could toss this race out quicker than the Wood.

With that being said...how fast before Court is replaced with Borel?

[judd]

8 dance city w-p-s
(show) --- --- $14.20

[Tom]

The trainer looks like Jim the Hat Bradshaw!

[toussaud]

Toussaud maybe correct. might be a Holy Bull moment where he just didn't run a lick for whatever reason.

I could toss this race out quicker than the Wood.

With that being said...how fast before Court is replaced with Borel?
considering the trainer is court's step dad, not going to happen


lol jon court has won the last 2 Arkansas derby's

[tribecaagent]

I really like Mucho Macho Man and was curious to see how the LA Derby runner performed. Nerho ran well and i'd say the race in LA was validated

[Pell Mell]

Does anybody recall the bet on Arch that I posted?:jump: :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

The more I look at this race, the more I'm sick I didn't bet the winner.

I was blinded by The Factor's big early speed number, and I discounted how much other positional early speed there was in this race (Ealy|Late rating)

:4: E8 113|79
:8: E8 100|58
:12: E6 104|69
:10: E3 101|73


:9: P6 98|73

If you operate under the theory that this race is very contentious early (you have to discount The Factor's 113 early rating to come to this conclusion though), then the winner becomes much more palatable given he is the fastest of the rest early, and has a respectable late rating.

At 25-1 on the tote and my third choice at 12-1 on my betting line, I'm a total moron for not betting him to win. (My second choice on my line at 9-1 was :12: who could be seen as part of that early pace liability and thus more easily thrown out).

Let this be a lesson to me to not be blinded by a big early pace rating in a race that positionally seems quite full of early speed.

[Sekrah]

Another Ky Derby prep, Another asskicking delivered by me.


Bring on the Derby Preps! Bring them all on! I'll crush them all!

La Derby,
SA Derby,
Ark Derby

[depalma113]

I really like Mucho Macho Man and was curious to see how the LA Derby runner performed. Nerho ran well and i'd say the race in LA was validated

The other LA Derby runner sucked big time, so I think the only validation you can get from this race is the second place finisher is a decent horse. He will probably be the wise guy horse going into this year's derby.

[cj]

The more I look at this race, the more I'm sick I didn't bet the winner.

I was blinded by The Factor's big early speed number, and I discounted how much other positional early speed there was in this race (Ealy|Late rating)

:4: E8 113|79
:8: E8 100|58
:12: E6 104|69
:10: E3 101|73


:9: P6 98|73

If you operate under the theory that this race is very contentious early (you have to discount The Factor's 113 early rating to come to this conclusion though), then the winner becomes much more palatable given he is the fastest of the rest early, and has a respectable late rating.

At 25-1 on the tote and my third choice at 12-1 on my betting line, I'm a total moron for not betting him to win. (My second choice on my line at 9-1 was :12: who could be seen as part of that early pace liability and thus more easily thrown out).

Let this be a lesson to me to not be blinded by a big early pace rating in a race that positionally seems quite full of early speed.

Just an fyi, I'm working hard to make the late rating better...much better. It gives front running types too much credit when they finish strong.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll be constructing some trifecta/supers around Archarcharch and Elite Alex.Well, I hope you bet the winner to win and didn't get zilch when Elite Alex ran poorly.

[cj]

I'll be constructing some trifecta/supers around Archarcharch and Elite Alex.

Nehro and The Factor are very vulnerable here.

This has bombs-away written all over it. JP's Gusto has been ripping up the track and his development has been a long time coming. And you must respect any horse with Pletcher/Castellano involved (Dance City). That horse showed some crazy speed at Gulfstream at 1 1/8 in January. If they can harness that, he's a contender.

I don't read this as an "asskicking". You played tris and supers, said the runner up was very vulnerable, and one of your keys was nowhere. Nice call on the winner and all, but...

[Sekrah]

Well, I hope you bet the winner to win and didn't get zilch when Elite Alex ran poorly.

Oh I cleaned house. Winner to win, exactas hard, and a $2 trifecta cherry on top.

[tribecaagent]

The other LA Derby runner sucked big time, so I think the only validation you can get from this race is the second place finisher is a decent horse. He will probably be the wise guy horse going into this year's derby.

How can compare dirt & synthetics? It's apples to oranges

[Sekrah]

I don't read this as an "asskicking". You played tris and supers, said the runner up was very vulnerable, and one of your keys was nowhere. Nice call on the winner and all, but...

On page 3, I moved Nehro up on count of Nakatani kicking ass today.

My tiers were 3,9/2,3,4,9/1-9

[Pell Mell]

I got Arch at 15/1 and now 25/1 and you saw my future bet on him.;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Just an fyi, I'm working hard to make the late rating better...much better. It gives front running types too much credit when they finish strong.Don't take what I wrote as a criticism of your early/late numbers. They have given me plenty of winners and allowed me to eliminate what otherwise would have been a wager based on my betting line.

And we all know you can't win them all. It just kills me when your performance ratings highlight such an overlay in Archarcharch that I miss based upon my faulty narrow focus on The Factor's early dominance.

[cj]

Oh I cleaned house. Winner to win, exactas hard, and a $2 trifecta cherry on top.

So you used a "very vulnerable" horse second. Gimme a break. If you are going to post opinions with no bets, don't come gloating when said opinions are wrong and say you cashed whether you did or not.

[cj]

Don't take what I wrote as a criticism of your early/late numbers. They have given me plenty of winners and allowed me to eliminate what otherwise would have been a wager based on my betting line.

And we all know you can't win them all. It just kills me when your performance ratings highlight such an overlay in Archarcharch that I miss based upon my faulty narrow focus on The Factor's early dominance.

Not at all, but I'm saying it will be easier to see these type situations in the future. It is a flaw I've been aware of for a bit.

[Sekrah]

Moving Nehro up in my rankings based on the fact Corey Nakatani is bitchslapping every other jockey in the park right now


2:41pm

[cj]

2:41pm

Fair enough.

[Jasonm921]

considering the trainer is court's step dad, not going to happen


lol jon court has won the last 2 Arkansas derby's

That would be a real slap in the face. :)

[Tread]

LOOOOL, gotta love still getting attacked even though you posted a bomb here and very clearly re-evaluated 2nd place a couple hours prior. Congrats on your score!

But I am still in shock over the race call. I know you guys have been saying how bad he is for awhile now, but that just defies words.

[classhandicapper]

I didn't play the race (considered Sway Away), but I'm not totally shocked by The Factor's performance. I said after his last race that he had way the best of it last time when he shook loose on a track that was tilted towards speed. Normally, I would be leery of that to begin with, but he's such a speed ball he LOOKED like a sprinter/miler. Even Baffert questioned his distance capabilities. This is what happens when a sprinter/miler doesn't get it all his own way at 9F.

I was actually hoping he would win today because he would have been the easiest toss imaginable in the Derby.

This Derby is now wide open. It's really crazy.

[PaceAdvantage]

LOOOOL, gotta love still getting attacked even though you posted a bomb here and very clearly re-evaluated 2nd place a couple hours prior. Congrats on your score!

But I am still in shock over the race call. I know you guys have been saying how bad he is for awhile now, but that just defies words.LOOOOL on you saying he was attacked. To be fair, he posted generalities and stated he was constructing tris and supers based on the winner and a horse who finished out of it...how are we to know how or even if he really cashed?

Nobody attacked him. When you come bounding into a thread boasting of what you did when you didn't even post a concrete wager, you're bound to encounter questions.

I LOOOOL over people's overuse of the word "attacked" and "bashed."

With that said, nice call Sekrah.

[Pell Mell]

I didn't play the race, but I'm not totally shocked by The Factor's performance. I said after his last race that he had way the best of it last time when he shook loose on a track that was tilted towards speed. Normally, I would be leery of that to begin with, but he's such a speed ball he LOOKED like a sprinter/miler. Even Baffert questioned his distance capabilities. This is what happens when a sprinter/miler doesn't get it all his own way at 9F.

I was actually hoping he would win today because he would have been the easiest toss imaginable in the Derby.

This Derby is now wide open. It's really crazy.

I don't think it's wide open because you just saw the winner, I hope, because if he wins the derby it's worth 17Gs to me on my future bet.:jump:

[toussaud]

I just walked in the room, did HRTV just say the factor flipped his Pilate?

[Jasonm921]

Displaced palette suffered by The Factor...same as Holy Bull in The Fountain of Youth.

[GatetoWire]

Displaced palette suffered by The Factor...same as Holy Bull in The Fountain of Youth.
What no photos of the displaced palette???
What's with the slacking off? :lol:

[Jasonm921]

I wish. I wouldnt really be sure what to look for and the HRTV watermark would be a distraction to many on the board :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Displaced palette suffered by The Factor...same as Holy Bull in The Fountain of Youth.He probably fell asleep waiting for the race to start, then when startled by the gates opening, his pallet flipped faster than Sammy the Bull Gravano....

[Jasonm921]

He spent what seemed to be about 5 minutes in the gate. There was a hint that something was wrong when he was backing up after going 6f in 1:11 and change.

[Jasonm921]

Is that an equipment issue?

[lamboguy]

alll these untested 3 year olds are all coming up with excuses or problems. this happens when the horse skips over tough fields and might miss a few days of training due to bad reaction to the drugs they are give to keep them in training. it kind of makes you wonder why the public is losing interest in horse racing period. i really don't think the public likes to watch drugged up horses compete for all the spoiled people in this game.

archarcharch was impressive today. i also like the way dialed in has progressed. the bill mott horse that ran 4th in the bluegrass today looked excellent but doesn't have the earnings

[Bruddah]

Nice day of racing. I didn't think speed would hold up today and it didn't. This was the only part of my handicapping that held up for the Ark. Derby. I thought I had it won when Sway Away made his move and went to the lead, but he couldn't hold it.

With 49 days of racing and 8 days lost because of bad weather, Oaklawn still ended up with a solid meet.

Attendance for the meet: 570,823
Largest attendance- Ark Derby day: 62,364
Average daily attendance for meet: 11,649

Arkansas Derby Day all source betting: 11,414,505*
Oaklawn Park does not allow Off Shore betting into their pooles.

[Jasonm921]

What was the attendance for the Apple Blossom? Today's attendance was great. The amazing thing is where else can you get 60,000 plus people at one sporting event and not have national sports televised coverage?

[MNslappy]

where else can you get 60,000 plus people at one sporting event and not have national sports televised coverage?

What an excellent point.

[Bruddah]

What was the attendance for the Apple Blossom? Today's attendance was great.

Yesterday, Friday was 20,176 = Fri-Sat...82,540....
Total for the Racing Festival of the South, which started last Sat 4/9/11 and concluded today was 127,008 for the six race days. avg. 21,168 daily.

As I said earlier, it was a solid meet. But, I have seen better years back in the 80's, 90's.

[joanied]

Displaced palette suffered by The Factor...same as Holy Bull in The Fountain of Youth.

Well, I hope that is why he ran like he did...it also could have been Garcia falling asleep in the gate along with his mount...that delay drove me nuts:mad: ...I don't know what happened at the break, but one fo them was asleep!
One of the strangest run races I've seen...and calls too...what was that!!?! In fact, every race I watched from Oaklawn today had a bad call...pausing for several seconds, what was he doing, checking the program for the horse's names??

My life lately has been chaos, so I can't remember if I ever posted picks for the AK Derby, but since everyone is talking about how they wagered, I did have The Factor to win...like PA and a few others, I figured he'd do like the Rebel and then I had Archarcharch coming late, with The Factor just holding on, Elite Alex for show...and figured Sway Away would be right there too because of P Val...
oh,well:faint:

I really hope the flipped palette is for real...because I am looking for an excuse for this colt.

I think come Derby day the best thing a guy can do is bet on every f'n horse in the race...one of 'em is gonna win:D

me thinks Zito is a smiling dude tonight...like the Chesher cat:)

[toussaud]

I don't think the kentucky derby is as open as everyone is suggesting.

I, and this is just my personal opinion, think it's a 3 horse race between archarcharch, midnight interlude and nehro. I can tell you now my pick will be one of those three.

[Jasonm921]

take a 100 bucks and buy random superfectas. The best type of lotto there is with a high probable payoff and much easier to win.

[Bruddah]

I don't think the kentucky derby is as open as everyone is suggesting.

I, and this is just my personal opinion, think it's a 3 horse race between archarcharch, midnight interlude and nehro. I can tell you now my pick will be one of those three.

The thing I don't like about AAA or Nehro is they both have Raise A Native on their Dam's Sire Line. This makes them prone to leg injuries. (very bad ankles) I use to have the # of starters in the Ky Derby by this type bloodline and how unsuccessful they were. I'll see if I can't find those stats. As a matter of fact, I consider them automatic throw outs for the win.

I'll get back to the board on those stats.

[Bruddah]

This is what I found on Ky Derby runners with Raise A Native on the Dam's Sire line and Raise A Native if both the Sire and Dam's sire were Raise A Native. years 1987 thru 2009

62 starters 1w-4p-3s-(4-4ths- 1-5th) RAN on dam's Sire Line
15 starters 0w-1p-0s-(0-4ths- 2-5th) Ran on both sire & dam's line
77 starters 1w-5p-3s-(4-4ths- 3-5th) Totals for both

[MNslappy]

Wikipedia is wrong a lot, here's what it says in the R-A-N bio..

As of 2008, 15 Kentucky Derby winners have had Raise a Native on their (paternal) sire line: Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Thunder Gulch, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Genuine Risk, Affirmed, Street Sense and Majestic Prince.

Only three Derby winners carried Raise a Native on their broodmare sire line: Barbaro, Mine that Bird and Real Quiet (who carried him on both lines).

[Bruddah]

Wikipedia is wrong a lot, here's what it says in the R-A-N bio..

Slappy...from 1987 thru 2009 their have been 107 starters with Raise A Native on the Sires sire line. 15 won the Ky Derby, 5 placed, 4 showed, 4-4th, and 5-5th

The numbers I gave in my prior post are starters Having Raise A Native on the Dam's sire line or both parent's lines. A.K.A as the Raise A Native curse

Raise A Native-sire line only, is deemed favorable Derby indicator.
Raise A Native on Dam's sire line or both lines deemed not so favorable.

[Bruddah]

Wikipedia is wrong a lot, here's what it says in the R-A-N bio..

I should also point out that Real Quiet was not a "Double Raise A Native". His sire line was Raise A Native. His Dam's sire was not. His Dam's Dam line was Raise A Native. Technical difference. The RAN curse (jinx) is the Dam's sire being RAN.

[PhantomOnTour]

Congrats to Jon Court, who FINALLY may get a Derby mount.
I loved Nehro in this race and I still love him going to the next race (it's in Kentucky)...I think he's the real deal.

By the way, doesn't Archarcharch have that precious La Troienne blood on his dam side?

I love to record the big Saturday races before going to work and watch the replays (without knowing the results)when I get home...like I'm doing now...
SCORE!...nice exacta with Nehro in 2nd place.
Jenny Wiley exacta paid nice too :ThmbUp:

[PhantomOnTour]

Did my figs for the Ark Dby this morning and (according to me) this race will get the highest Beyer fig, or any type speed fig, of all the preps.

[forced89]

With that being said...how fast before Court is replaced with Borel?

No way. Jon Court is related to Trainer and Owner loves him. He will ride in the Derby. Period.

[forced89]

I have been spending Winters in Hot Springs ever since I retired in 2000. Because of my age I'm not as swift as I used to be. Same for Terry Wallace. He has been great for Oaklawn but it is time for him to recognize that his best days are behind him and for the good of the track and fans, he should retire.

[classhandicapper]

Displaced palette suffered by The Factor...same as Holy Bull in The Fountain of Youth.

Isn't it amazing that every time a big favorite runs a sub par race they always have some excuse. Gastro-intestinal problems, flipped palette, the sun was in his eyes etc...

I'm not saying it's not true.

But these guys have an obvious incentive to find an excuse to protect the value of the horse. It can be difficult for outsiders to know what's real and what's not.

I've been "against" this horse. So now I have to throw out a race I thought was very likely to begin with?

[Pell Mell]

[QUOTE=toussaud]while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree on 2 points

1. he ran a 100 beyer. he was passing horses, not falling in line

2. he beat premier Pegasus.. by alot. a few lengths.

He's a horse that has been running against speed horses /sprinters, in sprint races and the race that he was supposed to show out, he lost his chance before the race started

we will see saturday[/QUOTE

We saw!...Beyers, though I have no use for them, if used, must be taken in context. The point is that Sway didn't beat PP, Factor did. PP chased The Factor and held on pretty good while Sway caught a few dead horses. PP came back in his next race, laid off the pace and blew them away. We had almost exactly the same situation with The Factor and AAA. AAA chased TF in a blistering pace and held well, in fact, came again at the end and was just edged for second by a Posse. AAA lays off the pace yesterday and comes back with a big one while posse is no where to be found. Speed figures are only useful if the race itself is properly analyzed
Incidentally, P Val gave Sway every chance to win but he's just not bred for the distance.

[tribecaagent]

Kathy Ritvo actually showed the press MMM's lost shoe after the LA Derby.
I have to believe this cost the horse something.

[The WindfallAngler]

Dance City spoiled this dance, in more ways than one. Nor am I ready to toss out The Factor, anymore than I'm dismissing Uncle Mo (although I was never among The Faithful, in that camp).

The Factor -- who was arguably one of the horses *most inconvenienced* by Dance City's inexcusable pre-start Bad Acting -- did not break all that well.

What a surprise. ...after that 10-minute wait, in the gate (or so it seemed).

The Factor did put away Brethren's sharp strides, but a freshly loaded J P's Gusto (who'd been breaking from posts 1-thru-4, usually) instantly "Fell On His Sword" pace-wise, while the much larger & no-doubt physically intimidating colt, Dance City, put a squeeze on 'Factor. Whose jockey Martin Garcia, in turn yanked him back nervously if undestandably (although, in so doing displaced the colt's palate, costing The Factor all chance), just to avoid being boxed-in, around the turn.

I don't believe the ground lost, in putting him safely outside, would have mattered, had The Factor been able to run his race. Even though it looked to me that Dance City was at that point eased back, off J.P's Gusto's suicidal pace.

Dance City was never a serious threat, apart from hs imposing stature. Nor do I believe Oaklawn Derby winner Archarcharch would have had as easy a time as he did, reeling-in J.P. Gusto's doomed pace.

The Factor, no doubt strangling slightly but bravely struggling to cope with his dsiplaced palate, at this point appears to be regaining his stride. But in the next instant Sway Away, going widest, looks to be Closing The Vise against Dance City, to some extent. ...with The Factor in-between.

This, too, would not have been insurmountable--were The Factor not busily relocating his larynx, so to speak :eek: and, in the pre-Kentucky train-up, all this might well have constituted Useful Schooling. Except that it was a Lesson Lost (along with The Factor's win-skein, pur$e earning$ and derby favoritism), amid the trauma of that moment. Which, hopefully won't trouble the serenity of the young colt's good mind, going forward; nor his displaced palate and possible impending surgery, impair his physical well being. We'll see.

Neither do I find fault with PVal's antic cornering aboard a sandwiching Sway Away. PVal was obviously under orders not to lose touch, in the early going.

Dance City, however, I'm not thrilled with. Without him acting- up: obviously compromising an anticipated, & expected fair start, neither J.P. Gusto's necessary surge from outsde, nor the pressuring middle- & late-moves by Archarcharch, Sway Away, Nehro & company, would have overtaken a trouble-free -- and likely "long-gone" 'Factor, or so I believe.

[joanied]

WindfallAngler:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: After watching the replay a few times...I cannot agree with you more...I think you nailed the way this race played out...right down to your last few words about The Factor.
Excellent post:)

[depalma113]

How can compare dirt & synthetics? It's apples to oranges

Ummm.....what?

The Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby are both run on dirt.

[Dahoss9698]

I'm not going to quote that post because of it's length, but I disagree with parts of it. Even if you buy the excuse given post race about him flipping his palate, The Factor has yet to prove he can win while not alone on the lead.

Essentially, what is being said is if The Factor was allowed to control the pace, trouble free, he would have won. Is that the kind of horse you want to back in a potential 20 horse field? I certainly don't.

Pre race antics aside, Dance City ran a strong race as did Sway Away. I understand why PVal moved when he did, but he moved too soon and it cost him a placing IMO. Dance City showed at least that he can finish up when rating and is improving.

The factor is very talented, but he has yet to show he can win while not having all of the breaks go his way.

[tribecaagent]

I thought you were referring to Wilkinson, and he ran in the Blue Grass. I forgot about Elite Alex in the ARK Derby.

[Tom]

The Factor should be looking at the one turn stakes the rest of the year.
No shame in that.

[toussaud]

that race was no different whatsoever from the factor's madien at hollywood park.

That why I buy the palate excuse.. because he didn't even need an excuse. The factor is a verified catch me if you can type horse. He's alot like war emblem if he doesn't get the lead you can forget it.

Any race in which he does not have the lead, cannot be viewed as his best effort.

Essentially, what is being said is if The Factor was allowed to control the pace, trouble free, he would have won. Is that the kind of horse you want to back in a potential 20 horse field? I certainly don't.

no. that is solddat. Go back and look at the san vancete and tell me what is trouble free about those splits..

He just does not like to be rated. Do;es not mean he can't handle pressure.

Now, can he handle pressure going 2 turns? I don't know. i think in the rebel the jocks thought hte factor was going to fade, due to his getting tired in the san felipe, and he gave the field the slip off easy fractions.\


He is not my derby horse, but he never was going to be my derby horse.

If he IS your derby horse, you can't use this race to discount him IMHO

[Dahoss9698]

no. that is solddat. Go back and look at the san vancete and tell me what is trouble free about those splits..

He just does not like to be rated. Do;es not mean he can't handle pressure.

If he IS your derby horse, you can't use this race to discount him IMHO

I agree about Soldat and said as much before the Florida Derby. But we're interpreting trouble differently. I don't view setting a fast pace as having trouble. The Factor has yet to show he can take pressure going two turns. He has shown no ability to rate off of horses.

I really don't see how this race can't discount him, if you like him in the Derby. If by your own admission he doesn't like to be rated, it means he needs to take them all the way in the Derby. So many things have to go right for that to happen, at the odds he will likely be, I could never imagine betting him. I think he's more likely to finish 15th than win the Derby.

He could have a huge year sprinting and winning two turn races where he is allowed unpressured leads like the Rebel. But he's not going to be effective in 2 turn races that he doesn't make the front IMO.

[toussaud]

I agree about Soldat and said as much before the Florida Derby. But we're interpreting trouble differently. I don't view setting a fast pace as having trouble. The Factor has yet to show he can take pressure going two turns. He has shown no ability to rate off of horses.

I really don't see how this race can't discount him, if you like him in the Derby. If by your own admission he doesn't like to be rated, it means he needs to take them all the way in the Derby. So many things have to go right for that to happen, at the odds he will likely be, I could never imagine betting him. I think he's more likely to finish 15th than win the Derby.

He could have a huge year sprinting and winning two turn races where he is allowed unpressured leads like the Rebel. But he's not going to be effective in 2 turn races that he doesn't make the front IMO.
yeah i guess you are right.

[Bruddah]

I'm not going to quote that post because of it's length, but I disagree with parts of it. Even if you buy the excuse given post race about him flipping his palate, The Factor has yet to prove he can win while not alone on the lead.

Essentially, what is being said is if The Factor was allowed to control the pace, trouble free, he would have won. Is that the kind of horse you want to back in a potential 20 horse field? I certainly don't.

Pre race antics aside, Dance City ran a strong race as did Sway Away. I understand why PVal moved when he did, but he moved too soon and it cost him a placing IMO. Dance City showed at least that he can finish up when rating and is improving.

The factor is very talented, but he has yet to show he can win while not having all of the breaks go his way.

Suprisingly, I agree with the entire highlighted paragraph. I believe Sway Away could have finished better, if ridden better. Just my observation and opinion. I don't believe he could have won it, and he certainly is not capable of the Derby distance.

[toussaud]

Suprisingly, I agree with the entire highlighted paragraph. I believe Sway Away could have finished better, if ridden better. Just my observation and opinion. I don't believe he could have won it, and he certainly is not capable of the Derby distance.


I think he was a short horse.

Keep in mind.. this in reality was his 2nd race of the year. I think Jeff Might have overestimated how fit he had him.

The first race being the 7F race and the 2nd, he didn't do a dang bit of running. In retrospect, the talent is obviously there, but he's just the horse that can't shoot straight. he's a race behind. They put him up for the year as a 2YO after august.. had he run in the norfolk he'd be in the derby. If he ran that race in the rebel he at least finishes 2nd and probably is dueling with the factor for the win.


however it's all moot now. he doesn't have the money. But I would like to see him in the Preakness.

[Bruddah]

I think he was a short horse.

Keep in mind.. this in reality was his 2nd race of the year. I think Jeff Might have overestimated how fit he had him.

The first race being the 7F race and the 2nd, he didn't do a dang bit of running. In retrospect, the talent is obviously there, but he's just the horse that can't shoot straight. he's a race behind. They put him up for the year as a 2YO after august.. had he run in the norfolk he'd be in the derby. If he ran that race in the rebel he at least finishes 2nd and probably is dueling with the factor for the win.


however it's all moot now. he doesn't have the money. But I would like to see him in the Preakness.

If, as you say, he was short, he may be able to make the 1m 3/16ths in the Preakness. If Jeff B. doesn't send him to Baltimore, it will be an indication that Jeff believes 1m 1/8th to be his limit. At least for now. He could grow into his breeding as a 4 yo. :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

If, as you say, he was short, he may be able to make the 1m 3/16ths in the Preakness. If Jeff B. doesn't send him to Baltimore, it will be an indication that Jeff believes 1m 1/8th to be his limit. At least for now. He could grow into his breeding as a 4 yo. :ThmbUp:
honestly at this point, if he were mine I would just let him grow up. horse could be a true class handicap type horse if he is allowed to grow up.

we saw it to a lesser extent with pleasant prince and scarface last year. not getting in the derby was the best thing that could have happened to both horses.

[Dark Bay]

Horses that ran close to the lead can be forgiven. That was as biased a track as I've seen in a long time.

[Bruddah]

Horses that ran close to the lead can be forgiven. That was as biased a track as I've seen in a long time.

Biased in what way? It certainly wasn't playing to speed in route races that day. Not arguing, just curious to see what I missed.

[redshift1]

Horses that ran close to the lead can be forgiven. That was as biased a track as I've seen in a long time.

????

[PhantomOnTour]

Horses that ran close to the lead can be forgiven. That was as biased a track as I've seen in a long time.
He is saying the track was biased in favor of closers. Also, the pace for the Arky Dby was pretty quick.

[toussaud]

He is saying the track was biased in favor of closers. Also, the pace for the Arky Dby was pretty quick.
that, is another reason why i would forgive sway away in that race.

while he wasn't on the lead, that early move, on that track, was a death wish. He became the mid stretch sitting duck so to speak. And he really wasn't that far off the pace the entire race, much closer than normal actually.

There is a reason, why Jon court has won the last two Arkansas derbies, and it's not because he's the best rider in the room.. A combination of having the right horse and knowing the track and how it plays. the same reason Calvin borel is a force at Churchill.

that move might that pval made, might have well won if they were at santa anita, I think he expected to open up more than he did. This ain't santa anita.

I know it's the nature of the beast, but I have NeVER been a fan of bringing jockeys into ride on tracks they have never rode before or don't ride often at all just to ride one horse. Unless the horse is just that much the best (for instance, I don't know, rachel in the preakness ;)), the local guys usually have an advantage.

[The WindfallAngler]

Pfui. This wasn't pace pressure. Trouble like this amounts to serious injury, given how bright the horse's future looked, going into the race. The Factor's labored gurgling was heard even as he was being unsaddled.

Beyond question, the severity and suddenness by which jockey Martin Garcia "had to grab him" (as Baffert put it), squandered the colt's 115 early advantage. (And that's putting it mildly.) That, and a lackluster break, plainly cost The Factor his mid-race *cushion* of at least 3 or 4 lengths, and likely the race.

How much more it costs him, remains to be learned. :(

Not that I think Garcia fell asleep in the gate. The Factor may have--but who can blame him, with all the delay?

As I understand it--what it boiled down to, is the * rear roof * of The Factor's mouth moved up, and over his Epiglottis, making it tough to exhale (and, it follows, interfered with his breathing). Consequently I have not yet joined in the chorus saying "He Needs To Lead."

In an alternate universe, maybe the Arkasas Derby unfolds fairly. Here's secnario B: With a fair start and sensible handling, The Factor breaks fresh; strides alongside and puts J.P.'s Gusto a length and a half behind; builds his usual pad against mid-race movers, and lengthens stride on a measured pace. Sway Away and Dance City don't get there. And The Factor has enough left to turn back Archarcharch, Nehro, et al.

He's tired, but intact.

He gets to train on, stretching out further for Kentucky and the Triple Crown. Sound better?

You ask me, The Rules want a default penalty of some sort, they surely do (...More than 60 seconds? Don't let 'em race)--to punish Bad Actors like Dance City, who work a distortion on the destinies of faster horses

[Dahoss9698]

You said it best, your scenario really is in an alternate universe.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think those jumping off The Factor's bandwagon simply because of the results of the Arkansas Derby are going to be in for a surprise down the road.

I will certainly give him another chance to prove me wrong before I relegate him to the sprinter or need-to-lead-and-have-everything-his-own-way pile.

[The WindfallAngler]

Yes, but I missed the jump. Next time!
_______________________________
As to not liking Vic, I've been wrong before. Ask me if I care

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think those jumping off The Factor's bandwagon simply because of the results of the Arkansas Derby are going to be in for a surprise down the road.

I will certainly give him another chance to prove me wrong before I relegate him to the sprinter or need-to-lead-and-have-everything-his-own-way pile.

Absolutely.I don't think he'll win on derby day but he's going to run some bigtime races this year.I think some have sour grapes because of their expectations on Saturday.3yo form to me is spurious.These horses are teengagers.I don't have to tell you this though.You know.Spurious bettors out there too!

[turninforhome10]

May be I am way off base here. But being a grandson of both Danzig and Miswaki and coming from a family the boast Crepello (Stamina turf influence) why could he not be monster on the grass. It would help his running style as I feel the grass might relax him and he should go farther. I know that everyone will crucify me for these thoughts but with the 3 yo turf division in chaos as well could he not sweep the Triple crown on grass. Just a thought.

[sammy the sage]

Him and Soldat on the WEEDS...now THAT would be some horse racing!

[Tom]

I think those jumping off The Factor's bandwagon simply because of the results of the Arkansas Derby are going to be in for a surprise down the road.

I will certainly give him another chance to prove me wrong before I relegate him to the sprinter or need-to-lead-and-have-everything-his-own-way pile.

He wasn't beaten that badly, and he has a couple of figs way above everything else. That race was not the end by any means, but he looks to me like one of a long list who come back later in the year and do very well in the one turn races. I would think if they target that path, he will be what we have not had in a while - a very good handicap horse.

Need the lead....hasn't proved himself that yet.

[Dahoss9698]

I think those jumping off The Factor's bandwagon simply because of the results of the Arkansas Derby are going to be in for a surprise down the road.

I will certainly give him another chance to prove me wrong before I relegate him to the sprinter or need-to-lead-and-have-everything-his-own-way pile.

I'm talking strictly about his chances in the Derby. If he's in the gate that day, considering what his odds will probably be, would you want any part of him wagering wise?

I wouldn't.

[Bruddah]

Does anyone have any figures or Beyers for the Ark Derby?

[Dark Bay]

Beyers:

Archarcharch - 98
Sway Away - 93
The Factor - 84

[Rapid Grey]

In an alternate universe, maybe the Arkasas Derby unfolds fairly. Here's secnario B: With a fair start and sensible handling, The Factor breaks fresh; strides alongside and puts J.P.'s Gusto a length and a half behind; builds his usual pad against mid-race movers, and lengthens stride on a measured pace. Sway Away and Dance City don't get there. And The Factor has enough left to turn back Archarcharch, Nehro, et al.

He's tired, but intact.

He gets to train on, stretching out further for Kentucky and the Triple Crown. Sound better?

You ask me, The Rules want a default penalty of some sort, they surely do (...More than 60 seconds? Don't let 'em race)--to punish Bad Actors like Dance City, who work a distortion on the destinies of faster horses


JPs Gusto was going to the front in the Arkansas Derby come hell or high water, I don't think the jockey was instructed to wait and see if The Factor broke bad. How fast would the pace have been had The Factor broken cleanly? No way he was going to wire the field given the way Jps Gusto was ridden.

Dance City is the intriguing horse coming out of the race. He was closest to the fast pace eventually putting away the speed, made the lead turning for home and was bothered inside the 1/8th pole but still came back to pass Sway Away. He's the horse to watch for down the road imo!

[Dark Bay]

JPs Gusto was going to the front in the Arkansas Derby come hell or high water, I don't think the jockey was instructed to wait and see if The Factor broke bad. How fast would the pace have been had The Factor broken cleanly? No way he was going to wire the field given the way Jps Gusto was ridden.

Dance City is the intriguing horse coming out of the race. He was closest to the fast pace eventually putting away the speed, made the lead turning for home and was bothered inside the 1/8th pole but still came back to pass Sway Away. He's the horse to watch for down the road imo!


Agree, especially regarding Dance City. I threw him out because of a really slow final quarter when defeating Cal Nation on the same day Hilda's Passion broke the 7F track record. He improved bunches second off the bench and he's definitely one to follow.

[Joeprotx]

I have been following Ability-X for awhile and Archarcharch was the Ability-X "Simple" pick, and "Low" rating at 37, which is a Kentucky Derby type number

[depalma113]

Heard today, The Factor is out of Derby consideration.

Haven't found anything in print or online, just whispers at the OBS Sale.

[The WindfallAngler]

JPs Gusto was going to the front in the Arkansas Derby come hell or high water, I don't think the jockey was instructed to wait and see if The Factor broke bad. How fast would the pace have been had The Factor broken cleanly? No way he was going to wire the field given the way Jps Gusto was ridden.
Not looking at any more replays of this race.

The Oaklawn Derby pace, but for its blatantly unfair apects, afforded an opportunity to rate The Factor; jockey Martin Garcia, in dropping back an unguessable number of lengths, did seem intent on trying this out.

It's true, J.P.'s Gusto had won a Grade 1, in a workmanlike 97 Beyer--for what that is worth: His self-destruct, while extreme, was not unforseen--neither was the pace pressure that Dance City applied, except for the bad behavior, 'fore and aft... Yes, the plan was to get position before the turn--but it played out as a Suicide Run, almost as though J.P's connections Had Something To Prove.

The Factor had run away from J.P.'s Gusto and his pals, in the Rebel Stakes, becoming a media focus of attention. *Stealing the limelight,* to some extent. ...If indeed J.P.'s connections were hell-bent on revenge, which I sorta doubt. And yet, J.P's Gusto was-what? Something like LAST to load, was he? Gotta love that.

By that time, The Factor was hip deep in Oaklawn dirt, and rooted like a tree, after dozing through a 10-minute tantrum by Dance City, who promptly tag-teamed The Factor, crowding him on the rail. --wherupon jockey Martin Garcia abruptly "clothes-lined" The Factor (who, at that point, doubtless was expecting to be clubbed by a folding chair).

A strangling 'Factor wasn't going to wire this field, no.

[Exotic1]

........


By that time, The Factor was hip deep in Oaklawn dirt, and rooted like a tree, after dozing through a 10-minute tantrum by Dance City, who promptly tag-teamed The Factor, crowding him on the rail. --wherupon jockey Martin Garcia abruptly "clothes-lined" The Factor (who, at that point, doubtless was expecting to be clubbed by a folding chair).

A strangling 'Factor wasn't going to wire this field, no.

Great writing.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by The WindfallAngler
........


By that time, The Factor was hip deep in Oaklawn dirt, and rooted like a tree, after dozing through a 10-minute tantrum by Dance City, who promptly tag-teamed The Factor, crowding him on the rail. --wherupon jockey Martin Garcia abruptly "clothes-lined" The Factor (who, at that point, doubtless was expecting to be clubbed by a folding chair).

A strangling 'Factor wasn't going to wire this field, no.


I'll ditto that:ThmbUp: excellent!!

[sammy the sage]

This thread is now the Official:

A) I like beating a dead horse
B) I like hallucinationing
C) I have NO life
D) this OLD news
E) all of THE above :lol: :D :rolleyes:

or

I'm drinking CROWN...and it makes NO SENSE to moi :eek: ;) :p

[keithw84]

I still haven't heard anything official about The Factor not running in the Derby. Did I miss something or have they not announced anything yet?

[sonnyp]

baffert said "he really laid an egg in that race". he's taking him to churchill and he's just going to "watch him " for a while. no decision.

[depalma113]

Whispers were true, The Factor is out of the Derby.

[Shelby]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-factor-misses-work-and-withdrawn

[classhandicapper]

Another "toss" bites the dust.

[joanied]

Might see him at the Preakness. Baffert down to one horse for the Derby:faint: ...be a kick if he wins it with Midnight Interlude, who I like anyway.


I didn't figure they'd do the surgery now, but on second thought...now it's behind them and they can move foward...hope The Factor gets right back to being kick a$$ again.

[toussaud]

i am crying laughing right now. Jeff Bonde just got asked was the move on sway away planned or was he suprised..





..,............................................... .........................."I was disappointed"



that move cost him a derby spot, on the real. he gets 3rd instead of 4th he has another 100k in graded stakes earnings. you can tell he's a little hurt he's not going to get in (most likely)