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fiveouttasix
04-05-2011, 10:27 AM
So Dialed In gets a 93 Beyer for the Fla. Derby...Does this mean that Soldat-To Honor and Serve-Stay Thirsty & Flash Point all regressed?
I read before the race that some handicappers thought the Fla. Derby was the toughest prep to date...is that now not the case?
How about extra credit for Dialed In because the 2,3 4 finishers were 1,2,3 the whole trip but only Dialed in closed?
What do you guys (or gals) think?

cj
04-05-2011, 10:31 AM
So Dialed In gets a 93 Beyer for the Fla. Derby...Does this mean that Soldat-To Honor and Serve-Stay Thirsty & Flash Point all regressed?
I read before the race that some handicappers thought the Fla. Derby was the toughest prep to date...is that now not the case?
How about extra credit for Dialed In because the 2,3 4 finishers were 1,2,3 the whole trip but only Dialed in closed?
What do you guys (or gals) think?

The pace was very quick which could have led to those up close regressing final time wise.

BIG49010
04-05-2011, 10:53 AM
I was suprised by the number too, if anything it might make a betting oportunity for another horse that comes along in the next 5 weeks.

Ocala Mike
04-05-2011, 11:26 AM
I move his effort up, and he is now on my (very) short list of possible KD winners. The track was super speed biased, as the OP states regarding the horses laying 1-2-3 finishing 2-3-4.

Real question I have about the race is why the outside horse didn't leave at all. What were his connections thinking, or did he just not fire?


Ocala Mike

Tom
04-05-2011, 11:55 AM
Real question I have about the race is why the outside horse didn't leave at all. What were his connections thinking, or did he just not fire?

Ocala Mike

He broke to the outside, then was wide on the first turn.

cj
04-05-2011, 12:27 PM
I move his effort up, and he is now on my (very) short list of possible KD winners. The track was super speed biased, as the OP states regarding the horses laying 1-2-3 finishing 2-3-4.

Real question I have about the race is why the outside horse didn't leave at all. What were his connections thinking, or did he just not fire?


Ocala Mike

What leads you to believe the track was biased? I don't see it. Sure, it didn't hurt to have speed. It rarely does on a dirt track. I just don't see horses I thought should have closed that couldn't.

Ocala Mike
04-05-2011, 12:46 PM
cj, GP is one of the most notoriously speed-biased main tracks going. There was nothing about Saturday that changed this; in fact, speed was playing well all day as usual.

I like Dialed In and Ron The Greek out of the FD, especially if placed in a race where there will be a hotly-contested (breakneck?) pace on a fair track.


Ocala Mike

cj
04-05-2011, 12:55 PM
Dialed In won and Ron put in his usual belated rally.

I'm not saying Gulfsteam doesn't favor speed, it does, as do most dirt tracks. I just don't consider that "super speed biased".

fiveouttasix
04-05-2011, 01:35 PM
Dialed In's final time was 150.07...last year (2010 Fla. Derby) with similar fractions Ice Box final time was 149.19. Less than 1 second difference.
Just curious what Ice Boxes Beyer was.

RXB
04-05-2011, 01:52 PM
The 2f positions of the dirt winners & runners-up: 2-3, 2-4, 2-3, 3-8, 4-1, 4-3, 2-5, 8-1.

Pressers/chasers did well. The early leaders and closers didn't have a great day.

Robert Fischer
04-05-2011, 02:06 PM
i've never ever ever:liar: said this before but I like the horse... :rolleyes:

Tracking position alone and DI's race was possibly a grade1 or grade2 - HOWEVER - the lack of other good closers in the race makes that a more SUBJECTIVE read...
In other words if you say that the finishers 2-4(and the slower ones behind) all ran a certain kind of race, and then you say Dialed In ran a different style of race, the actual "performance" could be anywhere from an upgrade to a downgrade. The fact that it was a surprise longshot lead horse further complicates it.

I look at the race in terms of "did he run his race"?
I thought everything was a positive, with the gallop out being the one thing I will have to go back over as it appears the 5 Shackleford? galloped out well inside.

cj
04-05-2011, 03:42 PM
Dialed In's final time was 150.07...last year (2010 Fla. Derby) with similar fractions Ice Box final time was 149.19. Less than 1 second difference.
Just curious what Ice Boxes Beyer was.

99 rings a bell.

BIG49010
04-05-2011, 04:05 PM
Ice Box, Pleasant Prince, and Rule who all ran faster than this years Derby, where are they now?

I am starting to think this is a weak crop of 3 year olds, if Uncle Mo turn out to be a bust.

point given
04-05-2011, 07:59 PM
Ice Box, Pleasant Prince, and Rule who all ran faster than this years Derby, where are they now?

I am starting to think this is a weak crop of 3 year olds, if Uncle Mo turn out to be a bust.

Just read an article today that he PP, had a chip taken out of a knee this winter and has been working back for a start soon

Kevroc
04-06-2011, 01:13 AM
I thought everything was a positive, with the gallop out being the one thing I will have to go back over as it appears the 5 Shackleford? galloped out well inside.

This was the one thing that bothered me as well.

Robert Fischer
04-06-2011, 02:07 AM
This was the one thing that bothered me as well.

i went back and viewed the track feed and DI galloped out well. Leparoux stood up after the finish line and was celebrating with on hand on the reins, but eventually "jogged" out pretty well (and better in respect to the #5) for about another furlong or so and was frisky heading to the winner's circle.

Dark Bay
04-06-2011, 02:25 AM
I don't see any evidence of a super speed track on Sunday. Truth is that Shackleford put down an amazing performance in defeat. Any advantage gained by the "speed surface" was surely negated by the suicidal fractions put up for the first six furlongs of the FD. If the FD goes 10L faster to 6F than older(G3)horses did a race earlier, and the Swale's 6F goes in about the same time, it is highly likely that the pace for the FD was crushing.

Soldat, THAS and Flashpoint didn't regress because of some unknown reason. They were beaten to a regression by the pace. Dialed In did none of the dirty work and barely got there. He won, but only one colt gained my respect on Sunday. His name is Shackleford.

Sunday Silence
04-06-2011, 02:33 AM
Very well said. Shackleford did all of the dirty work on a hotly contested pace. DI got a total setup, even on a speed favoring track. That being said, DI does have the right style and may get an even faster pace to run at in the Derby, so he has to be considered based on that alone.

Dark Bay
04-06-2011, 03:17 AM
Given the gift that Dialed In received, I would have expected an easier win. That would have given me more confidence. Off the FD he'll have to beat me.

Pell Mell
04-06-2011, 09:27 AM
I don't think that field was anywhere near as good as some thought. As far as speed in the Derby, if The Factor runs another race like The Rebel, he will negate all the other speed horses in the Derby. I don't see anybody that can stay with him and any deep closers will have to come by way of Texas. This week will tell the story because the SA derby has some good ones in it and so does the AK Derby. I personally think the derby winner will come out of one of these races.

Richie
04-06-2011, 09:39 AM
i went back and viewed the track feed and DI galloped out well. Leparoux stood up after the finish line and was celebrating with on hand on the reins, but eventually "jogged" out pretty well (and better in respect to the #5) for about another furlong or so and was frisky heading to the winner's circle.
__________________

Speaking of gallop outs, the winner looked spent and walked back to the winner circle.

two different opinions same race, robert G and a guy on the thoro board?

OTM Al
04-06-2011, 10:44 AM
Dialed In is a perfect choice for 3rd and 4th slots and no more. It looked like the lot of them were ready to fall over in the stretch.

Valuist
04-06-2011, 10:00 PM
Given the gift that Dialed In received, I would have expected an easier win. That would have given me more confidence. Off the FD he'll have to beat me.

Speed still ended up running 2-3-4. Of all the distances at GP, 1 1/8 miles might be the kindest to early speed there.

Dark Bay
04-07-2011, 08:35 AM
Of course speed finished 2-3-4. Speed finished 5-6-7 as well.

classhandicapper
04-07-2011, 11:02 AM
In other words if you say that the finishers 2-4(and the slower ones behind) all ran a certain kind of race, and then you say Dialed In ran a different style of race, the actual "performance" could be anywhere from an upgrade to a downgrade. The fact that it was a surprise longshot lead horse further complicates it.

I look at the race in terms of "did he run his race"?


I agree. It's a tough read.

cj
04-07-2011, 05:55 PM
Speed still ended up running 2-3-4. Of all the distances at GP, 1 1/8 miles might be the kindest to early speed there.

As Dark Bay said, what other horse was going to make up ground?

Marlin
04-07-2011, 06:22 PM
I think Shacklefords effort was huge. I also think Dialed In won much easier than the final margin. I've seen posts that have said Dialed In was life and death to get by. From body language of horse and rider it was fairly casual in my eyes. If he can improve through April he will be very tough to beat. Assuming a relatively clean trip.:)

dnlgfnk
04-07-2011, 07:25 PM
Simply drawing inside Soldat or To Honor And Serve in a future race would do in Shackleford, who did not "do all the dirty work" as "Sunday Silence" suggested, but actually waited some strides out of gate as Soldat was asked hard just inside To Honor And Serve, then accelerated easier on the better outside to the first turn ...I'm not one to term Dialed In's winning by a neck on the wire as "easy".