Betting the Morning Line Pick

[Ray2000]

For Amusement only...Betting the Morning Line Pick

This isn't entirely fair because
1. I don't know if the Morning Line at each track is generated by the same guy (or Robot) for each day and
2. the Ontario "B" tracks have those exorbitant take-outs,
but I'll post this anyway.

Strange that the ML for Woodbine vs Mohawk is so different for ROI while about the same for Strike Rate. I assume the same guy does both.

Data for Apr 2010 thru Mar 2011. Minimum 500 races
If 2 or more equal ML picks then inside post is bet.



Track ROI% Strike%
SCD -1.0% 39.6%
HOP -7.7% 35.2%
TGDN -8.8% 35.3%
FRD -9.0% 40.8%
NOR -9.3% 36.4%
PRC -10.4% 36.0%
WDB -10.7% 33.4%
BMLP -11.5% 37.6%
CHST -12.5% 38.8%
BigM -13.2% 35.0%
BTVA -13.4% 32.6%
DD -14.0% 39.2%
BR -14.2% 35.3%
FHLD -14.5% 40.5%
HP -14.7% 35.6%
CALX -15.1% 32.7%
RIDC -15.1% 34.7%
WR -15.6% 40.3%
MAY -15.7% 35.4%
INDY -16.1% 33.9%
STGA -16.9% 34.8%
LON -17.3% 36.7%
VD -17.3% 32.2%
PPK -17.7% 35.1%
HAR -17.8% 34.8%
MR -18.1% 37.1%
YR -18.5% 33.5%
PCD -18.7% 36.2%
FLMD -20.3% 34.3%
MOH -20.4% 30.6%
NFLD -20.5% 36.8%
SCAR -20.9% 30.4%
GEOD -21.2% 33.4%
MEA -24.1% 32.1%
RP -32.5% 29.8%

[SchagFactorToWin]

Nice.

How do the crowd favorite strike rates compare to the ML strike rates?

[Dboomster]

Can you tell me what their rate is since the season began on March 18?

Thanks,
DG

[melman]

DG---Does the race caller at Chester also make the M/L? Also would you pass on to him that there are many who really enjoy his work. BTW very nice job of handicapping yesterday at Chester.

[Ray2000]

Dboomster, this is what I have for Chester this year, Mar 18 to date

Races....Ave win....Fav won....%fav wins....Avefavpaid....ROIbetting fav
133.... $8.50 ......66..........49.6%........ $3.81 ........-5.56%

MoLine Pic won...ML%wins....ROI% betting ML pic
.........42......31.6%......-32.7%....


SFTW

This is for the Crowd Favorite sorted on Hit rate.
Some tracks missing because I have more program data (ML) than chart data (Fav)


Track ROI% Strike% onFav
FHLD -7.6% 49.0%
NFLD -10.2% 47.1%
DD -10.7% 45.3%
HP -4.6% 45.2%
CHST -12.3% 44.7%
RP -4.1% 44.5%
SCAR -12.7% 44.2%
BMLP -9.5% 43.9%
WR -14.8% 43.3%
YR -10.5% 43.3%
HAR -13.5% 43.0%
GEOD -9.3% 43.0%
BR -7.1% 43.0%
MR -14.9% 43.0%
SCD -6.0% 42.7%
STGA -15.7% 42.1%
MAY -15.8% 42.0%
TGDN -11.1% 41.7%
BANG -17.8% 41.6%
LON -15.2% 41.5%
PCD -16.4% 41.5%
PPK -15.6% 41.2%
BTVA -10.7% 41.0%
HOP -5.0% 41.0%
KD -7.2% 40.6%
NOR -12.2% 40.5%
FLMD -20.0% 40.3%
RIDC -18.7% 39.9%
BigM -12.8% 39.5%
WDB -7.5% 39.4%
PRC -20.4% 39.4%
MEA -17.8% 39.2%
INDY -13.1% 39.1%
CALX -15.3% 38.8%
LEB -14.7% 38.3%
VD -18.3% 37.6%
FRD -21.9% 37.6%
MOH -16.0% 37.0%
GRVR -24.3% 36.1%

[Dboomster]

Thanks Ray.

Melman - I have no idea who does the morning line at Chester. But I'm guessing they have never made a wager and have very poor handicapping skills.