edge in race

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys I think pace is worthless in turf races but l/p and spd fig seem to work best also helpful is eps and condition of race are all ways big key to any race.But when looking at race i have lost.The winner a lot of times make sence rather always can figure after the race.And wonder if you guys notice that two.And every race is different so what factors help you determine which is really inportant and what is not?

[smf]

Big Hit,

3 things I do (did, as far as LaD is concerned) are of help.

Trainers, pedigree info, taping races.

For trainers, keeping a scorecard of sorts is really helpful. Break up the races by conditions/ age and you'll see some trainers specialize within turf races. Clipping winner's pp's w/ show any useful patterns.

Pedigree info. The more specific, the better. Get an APR CD from Bris if at all possible. It costs $300 (per year's issue) but is well worth it. Now they have Maiden Stats on CD so you can buy one every other year and save a few $$. Go to their website for details on the APR CD. That info is priceless.

Taping races. The most important of all, I've come to find out. Without a way to tape LAD races this season (trn went belly up) I haven't bet on a turf race there. Just don't feel comfortable w/o that advantage. Look for the way the horses(s) are moving (action). Also look for the point of the race where a horse had to accelerate, and how he and the jock handled the change. Was the runner comfortable, did the ears pin back, did he take the turns smoothly, etc. After a while you put 2 and 2 together after watching the tapes and it pays off.

[so.cal.fan]

I too, have not found pace profiles to be of much help in handicapping turf races.
It seems that horses who can finish well at higher or similar levels are contenders.
SMF,
I like your ideas on tapes. I might add, than in the late Bonnie Ledbetter's tape on body language, she explains turf strides in comparison to dirt strides.
We have had very positive results with running tapes in slow motion and determining a superior turf stride, which is higher than a dirt stride. We have found this to be more accurate than even breeding. Breeding is of course very important.
If you know certain sires who win with multiple starters on your specific turf course, you have some good handicapping aides.
Here in So. Calif. there is only a handful of trainers who really do well with turf horses. We all know them, and bet accordingly.