Only 1/3 of favourites win ?

[gonin02]

Hi all,

Newbie horseplayer here.. pretty excited about the upcoming BC. I read a stat in some book (Tom Ainsile?), saying that only 1/3 of favourites win races...

Just wondering, has anyone in the industry tried to measure this over the years, and if so is it an accurate claim ?

thx..

[Dave Schwartz]

Very accurate.

Welcome to PaceAdvantage, btw.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[gonin02]

Thank you.. looking forward to learning more and having fun..

Cheers,
Kev

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Very accurate.

Welcome to PaceAdvantage, btw.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by gonin02
Hi all,

Newbie horseplayer here.. pretty excited about the upcoming BC. I read a stat in some book (Tom Ainsile?), saying that only 1/3 of favourites win races...

Just wondering, has anyone in the industry tried to measure this over the years, and if so is it an accurate claim ?

thx..

Perhaps one of the most important tables a new betting racing fan should be aware of.

scroll down to the bottom of the page and clik on;

"PUBLIC'S ESTIMATION OF THE ODDS"

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[kenwoodallpromos]

Remember that means on average 1/3 of the time the public bets the most money on the horse that wins. That means that 2/3 of the time the horse the public bets the most money on loses. Average means that depends on the race. The most money bet on winners most often may be much more than 1/3 in rac es where there are just a few horses entered, in sprints, on very fast tracks, in races where a horse is going for its 3rd or fourth win in a row. Maybe a much smaller fraction bet on the winner in races that are yielding turf routes with large fields where there is no standouts. www.brisnet,com has a section on track info that breaks the numbers down better.
By the way, formula 2002 is our most ambitious test results person. The PA search buttons are very useful!
I often bet the fastest favorites on the fastest tracks for a very decent % of wins.

[pmd62ndst]

My database has confirmed that favorites win 34% and that number doesn't fluctuate a lot... at least as a whole.

But still, each track is different. For example, Bay Meadows and Golden Gate Fields can see 40% favorites because of a dominant trainer (Hollendorfer) and jockey (Baze) and a habit of scheduling 5-6 horse races. On the flipside, Mountaineer, which features "bottom-of the-barrel" claimers and 12 entries per race can see favorite averages below 30%.

PMD

[Valuist]

1987 Arlington was something like 43% favorites. I remember a lot of us thinking "there's no way this can continue; regression to the mean will take over at some point." It never did. Needless to say, it was a dreadful meet.

[trying2win]

PMD:

--I thought I read somewhere that in maiden races, the long term percentage of winners is higher than 33%. Is that true?

--As for Mountaineer Park having 12 horse fields, I've never seen them run more than 10 horses in a race there.

Thanks,

Trying2win

[Whirlaway]

I come up with 33.9% winners, -18.5% ROI based on about a 22,000 race sample.

[trying2win]

Oops! I goofed.

I originally wrote:

"I thought I read somewhere that in maiden races, the long term percentage of winners is higher than 33%. Is that true?"

It should have read:

"I thought I read somewhere that in maiden races the long term percentage of winning favorites is higher than 33%. Is that true?

Trying2win

[pmd62ndst]

trying2win

- Here's how my database breaks it down:

MCL: 35.8% favorites win.
MSW: 38.3% favorites win.
CLM: 32.3% favorites win.
ALW: 36.7% favorites win.
G/STK: 41.2% favorites win.

Numbers may be high but remember that Claiming races constitute > 50% of the races out there so it all averages out to around 34%.

I find it most surprising that Maiden Special Weight races have a high favorite win %. I still really haven't figured them out yet. What does the betting public know that I don't know? I would suspect that most database geeks like myself would avoid them because of a lack of information.

- You're right about Mountaineer. They always have around 12 "eligible" runners but usually run no more then 10. I avoid Mountaineer due to it's "unpredictability" although that may attract others.

PMD

[BillW]

trying2win

My data pretty much is in proportion to PMD's thus confirming your theory.

# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave.
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse
-----------------------------------------------------------
All 64726 36% 25% 5.38 $23649
Fast Track 52493 36% 25% 5.39 $23402
Off Track 12233 35% 27% 5.32 $24707
Dirt-Fast 45913 36% 26% 5.29 $21493
Dirt-Off 10832 36% 29% 5.16 $20889
Turf-Fast 6580 34% 17% 6.07 $36721
Turf-Off 1401 32% 13% 6.57 $54225
Routes 25747 35% 20% 5.44 $29875
Sprints 38979 36% 29% 5.34 $19536
Males 36940 35% 25% 5.44 $23734
Females 27786 36% 26% 5.29 $23535
2 YO 6032 38% 31% 5.47 $29041
3 YO 8169 36% 24% 5.12 $32822
3 YO & up 35908 35% 25% 5.39 $22359
4 YO & up 14617 35% 23% 5.43 $19464
Gr. Stk 753 38% 18% 5.52 $279615
non-Gr Stk 2388 41% 22% 4.65 $74658
Alw 9309 37% 23% 5.01 $31938
Opt. Clm 1864 38% 24% 4.59 $33408
St Alw 1293 38% 23% 4.88 $16049
Claiming 30369 34% 25% 5.48 $13751
MSW 7567 38% 27% 5.62 $28260
MdnClm 11183 37% 28% 5.57 $11631


Probably the higher win rate is attributed to the mix of tracks in our respective databases.

Bill

[Valuist]

You should make the distinction between open claiming, condition claiming and Mdn Claiming. I remember doing a study 10 years ago and favorites were winning only around 25% in Mdn Claiming races.

[BillW]

Valuist:


# Fav. W-W. Ave. Ave.
Type Races Wins Wins Odds Purse
-----------------------------------------------------------
Alw open 1227 36% 23% 4.64 $39939
Alw n3x 415 37% 23% 4.81 $34485
Alw n2x 1701 36% 23% 5.04 $34828
Alw n1x 3796 36% 21% 5.29 $28242
Alw n4l 322 37% 23% 5.24 $36149
Alw n3l 578 40% 25% 4.64 $30802
Alw n2l 1031 39% 27% 4.86 $28088
Opt. Clm 1872 38% 24% 4.59 $33409
St Alw 1295 38% 23% 4.87 $16043
Claiming 30411 34% 25% 5.48 $13754
Clm open 11968 33% 24% 5.35 $17310
Clm n4l 1561 32% 23% 5.46 $15707
Clm n3l 4727 34% 25% 5.54 $12244
Clm n2l 6805 35% 25% 5.70 $10563
Clm n3y 374 30% 26% 5.16 $ 7439
Clm n2y 2045 33% 28% 5.69 $ 7520
Clm n1y 2283 33% 28% 5.55 $ 7112
MSW 7576 38% 27% 5.62 $28264
MdnClm 11202 37% 28% 5.56 $11640

[kenwoodallpromos]

like greatgrandma says "Depends!"