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View Full Version : What Factors are Most Associated with Favorites?

Rick
10-21-2003, 03:16 PM
Has anyone done any research on which factors are most associated with favorites? Morning line favorite would definitely be one and maybe last race speed. Someone with a large database containing many factors should be able to find the percentage of time a horse that is top ranked in each factor actually becomes the post time favorite. Then, we could combine a few of the best factors and come up with a prediction of which horse is most likely to wind up as the favorite. It might work better than trying to guess which way the odds are going to go in the last couple of minutes.
Fastracehorse
10-21-2003, 03:38 PM
I am sure you will get alot of replies.

fffastt
brdman12
10-21-2003, 07:53 PM
Yes this will get a lot of replys...here's two..

A. Horses dropping more than one level

B Trainers with a win % greater than 15...

....oh boy..i asked for it...lol
Zaf
10-21-2003, 10:00 PM
Won last out.

ZAFONIC
dav4463
10-21-2003, 10:04 PM
Horses trained by the "super trainers", Cole Norman, Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Scott Lake, etc.
Zaf
10-21-2003, 10:25 PM
Super Jocks too.

Bailey, Day, Baze etc.

ZAFONIC
Kentucky Bred
10-21-2003, 10:46 PM
...dropping in class off of a win.

Kentucky Bred
Rick
10-22-2003, 02:36 AM
What I'm really looking for is something that can be ranked for every horse with as few ties as possible. So, maybe highest win % for trainers or jockeys would work but finish position last race would have too many ties unless you used lengths ahead or behind. Highest class last race would definitely have too many ties.
Whirlaway
10-22-2003, 10:55 AM
For non-maidens only, actual betting favorite was:

Morning Line Favorite 66% of the time
Top Last Race Speed Fig 43% of the time
Dropping in Class 36% of the time
Top Trainer 31% of the time
Top Jockey 31% of the time
Won Last Race 26% of the time
Second Last Race 24% of the time
Rick
10-22-2003, 11:27 AM
Whirlaway,

Very interesting. I'd also expect last race odds to be a significant factor. For those who have the data, last race BRIS class might be significant too.