Randy Giles' Extreme Pace Pre-Interview info

[Capper Al]

PaceAdvantage will be hosting an interview with Randy Giles author of Extreme Pace Handicapping on Monday April 11 at 7:00PM. At which time, he will be taking questions from racing fans in the forum.

Extreme Pace (Xpace) is the latest in a long line of pace handicapping techniques. Most pace handicapping methods nowadays just repeat the same old concepts that have been used for the last 20 years. Randy has brought something new to the game -- visualizing the herd in motion. The visualization is accomplished by doodling. It takes about one minute to doodle a race. The doodle gives the handicapper a picture of the probable battle each horse will have to contend with as the race unfolds. If you haven't read the book, I suggest you get one and read it before the interview at the link below:

http://www.paceappraiser.com/products/extreme_pace_handicapping.php

[Capper Al]

Randy's book, Extreme Pace Handicapping, can be downloaded if you want to read it before the interview.

[Capper Al]

Pace:

http://turfpedia.com/factors/fundamentals/pace.html

Quirin Speed Points (also note the four basic running styles):

http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/Favorite%20ALL-WaysTM%20Newsletter%20Articles%20Series/Articles/Final%20Quirin%20Speed%20Points-Race%20Shapes-Impact%20Values.pdf

[Capper Al]

The Pace Pressure Gauge is made up of two components, pace pressure and pace velocity. The gauge points to the pace match-up bias. The Pace Pressure Gauge is calibrated early because over 60% of all races, regardless of distance, are won by early pace running styles. The gauge output will look something like this: 34 X 1. Of course there are many possibilities. The first number represents pace pressure and is generated by the number of early pace horses (E, E/P, P) with 5 or more Quirin speed points. The second rating is generated by the number of one dimensional early pace horses (E) with 5 or more speed points. When the Pace Pressure Gauge exceeds 21 in the pressure reading, the pace bias has shifted slightly to a late pace bias. The higher the numbers the more likely the race will go to our P/Cs and Cs. Conversely, the lower the numbers the more likely the race will be won by our Es and E/Ps. The Pace Pressure Gauge is also a tool to help you assess value. For example, if you must play a horse that is facing a pace match-up bias that's not in its favor, add points to the odds you're willing to take.

[Capper Al]

The PA pace figures are not your regular run of the mill pace figures. They're designed to help us visualize where the horse was positioned in the herd at the pace call. For example, let's say the pace velocity rating is Fast 4 and the pace figure is 103. Simply subtract the velocity rating from the pace figure and it will tell you the number of beaten lengths at the pace call. In this case the horse was one length off of the leader at the second call (Par is 100). Easy. We just reverse the process for slow pace races. For example, let's say the pace was Slow 3 and the pace figure was 93. You simply add the pace of the race velocity rating to the pace figure and you'll know that the horse was four lengths off the pace at the second call. Yeah but...do they work just out of the box without all the adding and subtracting? They do. You could say, like some investors like to put it, the pace of the race velocity has been discounted in the pace figure, and that's good. And naturally, a 100 at Santa Anita is a 100 at Churchill Downs.

[Capper Al]

An important question is: When a horse runs its best races how many lengths off the pace was it, and will that number help or hinder it in today's race? As you analyze the pace picture, the pace comfort will show you which horses have the most depth of talent relative to their running style. As pace pressure increases the horses with the best PCZ rating have the advantage.

[Capper Al]

A simple diagram of running styles and raw Quirin speed points. You could say, too, they are diagrams of equine psychology and physiology. They represent a right brain view of a race, a holistic view, a zoomed out view.

1)E6...8)E/P8....4)P5....2)P/C2....3)C0
.........5)E/P4....7)P3
.........6)E/P4....9)P2

[Capper Al]

I hope I'm not making this too complicated with my previous posts. Randy has a lot of handicapping techniques incorporated into his products. If Randy wants, he may elaborate on these. What will be essential for the interview is understanding Quirin Speed Points, basic running styles (E, E/P, P, S), and par time for today's race. For me it's all about the doodles in their simplicity.

This thread is now open if you have any questions or comments before the interview.

Hope to hear from you.

[Capper Al]

Randy will discuss races 10 and 11 from 4/2/11 at GP, same races as in the
PAIHL contest. These are good examples of when to stay with the favorites.

[Capper Al]

Randy Giles will be discussing his book Extreme Pace Handicapping tomorrow at 7:00 PM EST here in the PaceAdvantage forum.