Horse's Age (Prime)

[johnhenry81]

I have been tracking data on a horses age/ win percent. From my limited sample size, (1302) it shows that runners aged 3.5 to 4.5 years have a clear advantage relative to starters. Oddly enough, the number of starts relative to age have no bearing, albeit a small sample. If anyone has data to share it would be appreciated.


jh

[DJofSD]

Just to be clear, are you using the actual age of the horse (foal date) and not January 1 of each year?

[lamboguy]

years ago before lassix and bute horses would have as many as 20 starts as a 2 year old. horses ran in most cases at least once a week. that was back in the days when they didn't have to many condition races. eventually they had to go to condition racing because guys knew how to play the game and enter in races where they had a steep edge. it only goes to say that the earlier a horse starts to race and the more races a horse has under his belt, the better the horse and the better chance that the horse makes it longer in his career. horseracing is not that way any more. you are lucky when a horse makes it into his 4 yearold year.

[johnhenry81]

I had to use Jan. 1, (and July 1 of the racing year for the half) because I use bris Prem PP's, and for whatever reason they are inconsistent with providing the horses birth month.

FYI, I have seen Dave;s video on age, which compares 3 v. 4 yo. and is very useful.

[thelyingthief]

I've done some research in that area--admittedly, a number of years ago--and found no real bias against older animals (my study focused on 8,9, and 10 y.o.) They win their fair share, and often pay a reasonable dividend, due to the age bias of bettors.

The only information I took away from that study was the vulnerability of those horses to muscle soreness. They need to be brought back to racing form rather gingerly...

tlt-

[Gallop58]

... eventually they had to go to condition racing because guys knew how to play the game and enter in races where they had a steep edge.

Can you please give an example of the above? It is an interesting statement but not one that I can visualize. What would be an example of what these trainers would be doing?

Thanks.